Thanks for reading my Diary today.

I hope it was helpful.

Enjoy the evening, reading Sarge tomorrow and the weekend.

Be safe.

A total of $3 billion to sell market on close.

The chill of the Ukraine conflict continues to paralyze the re opening space - airlines, hotels and cruise ships. 

My two shorts, (RCL) and (CCL) , are getting schmeissed and I am close to covering as they approach my price objectives.

I have a 3 pm research call, it should only take about 30 minutes.

Gold is looking better and better: 

Mar 01, 2022 ' 11:30 AM EST DOUG KASS

So Far So Good on Precious Metals Adds Yesterday

Yesterday I added back to (SLV) and (GLD) :

Feb 28, 2022 ' 06:30 AM EST DOUG KASS

Gold, Silver Adds

Gold and silver prices have pulled back from Sunday's spike higher.

In premarket trading, I added small to (SLV) and (GLD) at $22.47 and $177.47, respectively.

Going to leave this broke-down palace
On my hands and my knees I will roll, roll, roll
Make myself a bed by the waterside
In my time, in my time, I will roll, roll, roll

- The Grateful Dead,Brokedown Palace

The breakdown in individual stocks, as I discussed in Wednesday's opener, "The Indexes are Disguising Serious Internal Damage in The Great Bear Market of 2021-2", is breath taking. 

But it is not only in the gewgaws! 

Take a gander of the charts of such large cap stocks like (BA) , (GM) , (F) , (C) , (JPM) , FB , (PYPL) , (NFLX) , etc. 

That said, a Bear Market rally is possible at any time.

What planet do these people live on?

I will not be writing tomorrow but you will be in the more capable hands of Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle.

On the rally off of the Ukraine news, and the associated market ramp, I shorted March (SPY) $439 calls at $8.70 against my short March SPY $422 puts - to go delta adjusted neutral on the strangle.

After covering up a lot, I am getting a bit longer at this level - sold short March (SPY) $422 puts at $6.31.

I have sold a delta equivalent amount of (QQQ) March QQQ $348 puts at $11.20 against my short QQQ common.

I covered my (IWM) at $201.43 just now - for a nice gain.

At 10 am:

Market Breadth

View Chart »View in New Window »

Heat Map

View Chart »View in New Window »

Biggest Movers

View Chart »View in New Window »

I heard a lot about a new bull market leg this morning in the business media. 

Not for me: 

* Market breadth so so and weakening.

* Russell (a new short yesterday) is not crowing.

* (QQQ) s turn negative.

* As I mentioned yesterday/this morning - (NFLX) , (PYPL) , (AMZN) , (NVDA) , (CRM) - all in the red.

* Goldman Sachs (GS) was +$5.50 and now down by two bits.

* Opening plays faltering - (DAL) , (UAL) , (HLT) , (RCL) , (CCL) .

* Pavlov's dogs aren't playing - the normal positive response to lower energy prices failed this morning. 

I could go on and on... 

For more, see my tactical column this morning.

"A peaceful place, or so it looks from space. A closer look reveals the human race" sang Bob Weir of the Grateful Dead. Seems pretty apropos right now. 

The invasion driven commodity supply shock continues with its price shock. After the CRB food index closed at a record high for the 8th trading day in the past 9, the price of wheat is up another 6% and higher by 40% over the past 2 weeks to above $11, the highest since the parabolic spike in 2008. Soybeans are near $17 and corn is at $7.5 per bushel. For perspective, in the summer drought in 2012, corn got to $8.3 and soybeans to $17.70. The CRB raw industrials index closed at a fresh record high yesterday. Aluminum is up another 5% to a fresh record high. Zinc is at a 15 yr high. Oil continues higher but luckily Dutch TTF natural gas is giving back some of the recent spike. As of yesterday's close, the 2 yr US inflation breakeven closed at 4.28% vs 3.65% 2 weeks ago. The 5 yr hit 3.31% yesterday, up 37 bps over the past 2 weeks.

With respect to Powell yesterday, after falling by 40 bps on Monday and Tuesday, the December 2022/January 2023 fed funds futures contracts bounced by 30 bps yesterday as Powell said they will power forward with hikes so we're almost back to pricing in 6 hikes this year, irrespective of the 25 or 50 bps hike debate.

2 yr US Inflation Breakeven

All this comes on top of an already serious inflationary situation as we know. To highlight, here are comments from yesterday's Beige Book on prices that captures the environment before this new round of commodity inflation. And nothing points to a trip back to pre covid inflation levels anytime soon. The bold is mine.

Boston:

"Buyers of computer chips complained of "extortive" pricing while other goods makers enjoyed stable input prices. Although some manufacturers held off on raising their prices, those selling directly to consumers said that they had been forced to increase their prices because demand was exceeding production capacity. High freight costs caused one retailer to forgo shipments of otherwise attractive merchandise. Restaurateurs relayed that in the last quarter food input prices increased at their fastest pace in 40 years. Restaurants' menu prices also increased, but incomplete pass-through led to lower profits. According to a New Hampshire auto industry contact, new and used car prices remained very high, but used car prices softened somewhat at recent auctions."

NY:

"The vast majority of businesses continued to report rising input prices. Businesses noted shortages and exceptionally high costs of freight, as well as a wide range of supplies. Contacts in all major industry sectors expect input prices to rise further in the months ahead. A large and growing proportion of businesses report that they have raised selling prices, most notably in the manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, and leisure & hospitality sectors. One large retail chain indicated that its selling prices in most categories would be ratcheted up over the course of 2022, reflecting higher merchandise acquisition costs. A large but steady share of businesses indicated plans to raise selling prices in the months ahead."

Philly:

"On balance, prices rose sharply over the period - more than the prior period's moderate increase - and were more pervasive. The share of manufacturers reporting higher prices for factor inputs increased to 74 percent, while those receiving higher prices for their own products edged up to 54 percent. The share of nonmanufacturers reporting higher prices for their inputs surged to 70 percent, while the share receiving higher prices from consumers for their own goods and services rose to 45 percent."

Cleveland:

"Nonlabor input costs rose for most contacts. Higher transportation costs were commonly cited as a major strain on firms. One manufacturer noted that freight costs had almost doubled in the past two months. Also, builders noted that lumber prices trended back up after a brief respite late last year. Materials shortages forced some firms to purchase in spot markets or from retailers (as opposed to wholesalers), a situation which greatly added to their costs. Contacts generally expect costs to rise in the coming months, but some indicated the rates of increases could slow from what was seen last year. Most firms raised prices as they passed through higher costs of materials, labor, and transportation to customers. A little less than half of contacts who had tried to raise prices indicated that customers had been more accepting of price increases in the past few months, partly because they were seeing cost increases everywhere and had few alternatives. Contacts expected price pressures to remain elevated in the coming months as they keep up with cost increases and, in some cases, as they try to recover lost profit margins."

Richmond:

"According to our surveys, prices received by nonmanufacturing firms were about five percent higher than last year, which was down slightly compared to the peak rate of growth reported in December of 2020. The majority of firms indicated that they were raising prices in response to rising costs of both labor and non-labor inputs, including shipping and energy. A small number of firms, however, were concerned that customers may not be willing to accept further price increases, and if costs continued to rise they would have to find a way to absorb them."

Atlanta:

"District contacts noted increasing input costs over the reporting period, with considerable growth in the cost of freight, raw materials, and labor. Many contacts continued to describe supply chain issues, particularly a dearth of available labor, as the driving factor behind rising costs. The concerns over pricing power noted in the previous report eased, with most firms seeing higher margins from price increases with little to no impact on demand. Most contacts expect costs to remain elevated through at least the end of the year."

Chicago:

"Overall, prices rose rapidly in January and early February, and contacts expected price increases to continue at a strong pace over the next 12 months. There were large increases in producer prices, driven by pass-through of higher costs for materials, labor, and transportation. However, some contacts in manufacturing said that pricing pressures appeared to have peaked, highlighting an easing of steel and overseas shipping costs. Consumer prices generally moved up robustly. Sources of higher prices included solid demand, limited inventories, increased costs, and a continued ability to pass cost increases on to customers."

St. Louis:

"Prices have increased moderately since our previous report. A greater share of contacts than usual reported that price increases have been higher than expected. The majority of contacts noted the ability to increase prices charged to consumers in the near future. Several retail contacts indicated they were behind on raising prices to consumers. One retail contact reported that a shortage of in-store staff to physically change price tags has been an impediment to raising prices and that they had to enlist corporate employees to change price tags. Retailers also reported plans to utilize electronic price tags to reduce the labor needed to change prices. A furniture retail contact reported that a several-month lag on deliveries will result in elevated retail prices this year. An auto sales contact expects prices to fall as inventories build up."

Minneapolis:

"Price pressures remained strong, particularly for inputs. Manufacturers continued to report that prices were increasing rapidly for transportation, raw materials such as steel, and other inputs, including food. One contact noted that "prices are increasing faster than we can keep up." More than a third of survey respondents reported that their nonlabor input prices were up by more than 10 percent from a year ago, with similar results for final prices charged to customers. Agricultural input costs also increased sharply, according to a survey of agricultural credit conditions, in which two-thirds of lenders responded that input cost and/or availability was their top concern for 2022. Retail fuel prices in District states as of mid-February were sharply higher than January."

KC:

"Prices continued to increase at a robust pace. Input costs also grew robustly and generally outpaced growth in selling prices. Most businesses reported being able to pass only a small portion of increased costs to their customers, but some contacts indicated their ability to fully pass-through cost pressures. Nearly all firms reported price pressures were broad-based, citing increases in costs for materials, labor, energy, financing, real estate, and shipping, with expectations for additional increases in costs over the medium term."

Dallas:

"Input and selling price increases remained at or near historical highs. Contacts continued to cite supply-chain issues as the primary driver of rising costs. Construction contacts reported sizable increases in the price of concrete, steel, PVC, drywall, and lumber. A machinery manufacturer reported raw material increases of 10 to 20 percent each month. Transportation costs continued to surge, driven by a combination of supply-side constraints and higher fuel prices. A few contacts said broad-based price increases have led to a pullback in consumer demand and business capital spending."

San Fran:

"Prices climbed notably across the District. Contacts reported widespread price increases as higher material and labor costs were partially passed on to clients. Energy, transportation, and storage costs also contributed to further price increases across most sectors, including prices for construction materials and paper products. In agriculture, lower export sales increased domestic supply levels, which partially offset upward price pressures from higher input costs. A few contacts raised concerns that price hikes arising from wage increases may fuel further wage pressures going forward."

The good news yesterday was the story that China is weighing easing its strict stance towards covid. It would be particularly impactful on global travel as the Chinese tourist was a spending powerhouse around the world. The WSJ quoted an epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control who said "In the near future, at an appropriate time, there will be a Chinese style roadmap for living with the virus." It's about time. According to Statista, international tourism expenditures of Chinese tourists in 2019, and thus pre covid, was $255b, double the level of 2013. I'm still bullish on the Macau casino stocks.

China's February private sector weighted services PMI from Caixin fell to 50.2 from 51.4 and that was .5 pt below the estimate. Caixin also said cost pressures eased but of course pre invasion. As for the outlook, "Despite the recent slowdown in activity growth, businesses expressed stronger optimism for the year ahead, often linked to forecasts of a robust post pandemic recovery." Let's hope as the world needs Chinese economic growth.

The overboard Covid policy of Hong Kong that is now overwhelming them with higher cases saw their PMI fall to 42.9 from 48.9. China's takeover was damaging enough to this once great city, this is now just salt in the wound.

Singapore's PMI fell to 52.5 from 54.4. Singapore is the main beneficiary of Hong Kong's Covid approach. It's an amazing city/state and I recommend a visit. Japan and Australia saw upward revisions to their service PMI's.

Europe's service PMI for February was revised down slightly to 55.5 from 55.8 initially. That though is up from 51.1 in January as the omicron wave crashed down. The UK had the same experience with its services PMI at 60.5 in February vs 54.1 in January.

As the ECB continues on with QE until the fall, the Eurozone January PPI rose 30.6% y/o/y and 5.2% m/o/m. Yes, 5.2% m/o/m, almost double the estimate. Blame energy prices for sure but it's broadening out with an acceleration in the prices of capital goods and consumer goods and obviously all pre invasion figures. The 5 yr 5 yr euro inflation swap is up another 1 bp to 2.02%.

Market sentiment continues to darken according to the Investors Intelligence survey where yesterday saw bears now exceed the level of bulls. Bulls fell to 29.9 from 32.2 while Bears rose to 34.4 from 31. Go back to March/April 2020 the last time we saw these levels. With respect to AAII, yesterday's equity rally likely saved it as Bulls were up by 7 pts to 30.4, an 8 week high. Bears fell by 12.3 pts after rising by 10.5 last week. It stands at 41.4 so still higher than the bulls. Bottom line, the sentiment is a good back drop for a rally and if we don't get one of substance, it's a clear message that the landscape has shifted and the Bears are out of hibernation. For perspective, in 2008 and into early 2009, the II data saw consistent Bears more than Bulls.

dougie kass

Sold more QQQ short $350.14.
Dougie

dougie kass

Sold more SPY at $441.38
Dougie

- Also, I added to my (IWM) short at $205.34 in premarket trading. (I forgot about that!)

When trading actively and opportunistically, things can get a bit chaotic and I know it is sometimes hard to follow my trading. 

So, let's start the day with a few brief comments that hopefully gives you a flavor for my daily tactical positioning in a trading sardine, not eating sardine, market. 

Firstly, as I mentioned below, in "A Bear Market Rally," there were features of yesterday's market that did not impress me. 

Secondly, as mentioned in my "Night Moves" column this morning, it was a quiet futures session with a modest negative bias. In previous evenings/early mornings, we would see some sharp spikes higher - so I am a bit emboldened on the short side.

Thirdly (though precision is not intended!), with S&P cash now at 4370 we are approaching the higher end of my near term expected trading range (of S&P 4250-4440). Remember in the early going yesterday with S&P at 4295 and at the lower end of the expected short term trading range (4250-4400) I was aggressively buying (SPY) before 8 am.  

As I start the day I am net short SPY - taking into account the deltas on my short SPY calls and puts and my SPY long - short (QQQ) and (IWM) . The QQQ and IWM were newly established, late Wednesday short positions. 

Here is my post market column that I referenced from last evening:

Mar 02, 2022 ' 04:35 PM EST DOUG KASS

A Bear Market Rally?

Price has a way of changing sentiment (h/t The Divine Ms. M.) and, in watching the business media, many (who were absent on Tuesday) are miraculously bullish (likely in response to today's strong spike).

Me, I am sticking with my calculus (the market is overvalued) and I am sticking with the strategy of trading sardines and not eating sardines -- for now. (Note: It was a good day for the opportunistic trading).

I aggressively shorted late in the day and ended the regular trading session with sizeable cash reserves.

Some cautionary signposts I wanted to bring up:

* (SPY) ended $2 off the day's high (S&P cash was 21 handles from the high)

* (QQQ) ended $1.40 off the day's high.

* Banks, after the initial burst, are mediocre and off highs.

* Snowflake (SNOW) (a growth proxy), was yikes: -29% on slowing revenue growth

* Several important stocks were lackluster - (FB) , (NFLX) , (NVDA) , (GOOGL) , (AMZN) , (CRM) , (PYPL)

* (ARKK) (proxy for disruption!) down.

* Good breadth but not consistent with the advance in the S&P Index:

* 10-year yield up by nearly 20 basis points - competition to equities.

Bottom Line

It looked like a Bear Market rally.

Yell and roar and sell some more - I did.

* Profits margins are heading lower

* Consensus and bullish S&P EPS Projections Are Too Ambitious

The foundation of the Bull Market Thesis is that S&P profits will rise by a healthy +8% in 2022 and that there will be further gains in corporate profits next year. 

Bulls, like Brian Belski and my pal Tom Lee, are confident that sustaining or even improving the current level of profit margins will be the straw that stirs the drink (Reggie Jackson) to their upbeat corporate profit expectations. 

There are few things that I am certain of - but, given rising prices, especially of an energy-kind, there is a very low probability of sustained/improving margins in 2022-23.

I initiated long positions in Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) yesterday. 

From Credit Suisse this morning:

Ford Motor Company

Consumer Discretionary ' Company Update

Accelerating EV transition by better balancing the Two Clocks

Maintain Outperform

Target Price (USD): 25.00

Yesterday Ford announced a reorganization, separating its ICE (internal combustion engine) and EV businesses into two separate segments - Ford Blue and Ford Model e. Very simply, Blue will be the funding source for Model e (i.e. balancing the "Two Clocks"). While there are a number of challenges that must be addressed in this transition, we believe it is a key positive for Ford - not only do we expect the reorg to accelerate Ford's transition to an EV world, but with this corporate structure investors will have better transparency on Ford's transition to EVs, and could better reward Ford. Broadly, we continue to be positively surprised by Ford - as we noted in our upgrade of Ford last fall, Ford has seen the dawn of a new era, sharply improving its positioning in an EV world...which should lead to significant value creation ahead. We reaffirm our Outperform rating.

• Reorganization will accelerate Ford's EV transition by overcoming current corporate structure deficiencies...: Ford's reorganization will help accelerate its transition to an EV world. In its presentation yesterday, Ford acknowledged a point that many have long suspected about the challenge for legacy OEMs in transitioning to an EV world - Ford's corporate structure has been holding it back in its transition to an EV world. The comments likely reflect that legacy OEMs have overly complex organizational structures, and that the large size of these organizations is preventing a faster transition to an EV world. With Ford's move to separate its ICE and EV businesses, it creates a team dedicated to producing and selling EVs with full accountability, benefiting from a clean-sheet approach, and without worrying about balancing the ICE business.
• ...and maximizes balance of the"Two Clocks": We have long advocated that for legacy OEMs to successfully transition to an EV world, they will need to excel in balancing the "two clocks" - maximizing profit of ICE vehicles today (the "near") will be critical in funding the future transition to an EV world (the "far"). We believe this "two clocks" balance is at the heart of Ford's reorganization. Specifically, by separating the ICE and EV businesses, Ford will now have an ICE business focused on maximized profit...ultimately serving as the funding source for Ford's EV initiatives.

See:

View Chart »View in New Window »

I have addressed the new regime of heightened volatility in my Diary over the last month.

Bloomberg takes a shot on the subject:

* Russia is now an economic leper

Though I am more concerned about the slowing rate of global growth and the persistence of inflation (the two combine to produce "slugflation"),  the markets remain fixated on the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Increasingly it appears that Putin is playing Russian Roulette with his future and that of the Russian economy. As time progresses, the Russian troops appear less than optimal in their invasion and, as the world recoils and leaves Russia in an economic abyss and ostracized/isolated from the global economy, irreparable damage is occurring as it looks that Putin's gun has no empty chambers!

The value of Russia's currency (the ruble), the collapse of the country's capital markets and the abandonment of financial interconnectivity (with the rest of the world) has resulted in a self-inflicted (and structural) wound that will heal slowly, if at all.

Russia, stated simply, is now an economic leper.

As my pal and fellow stooge (my buddy Peter Boockvar makes up the triumvirate and third stooge), (The Credit Strategist's) Mike Lewitt wrote in an email to me last night:

"From an analytical standpoint, it is important to think about how the Ukraine invasion will change the geopolitical map. Unlike earlier Russian invasions of Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014), this invasion is different in scale and human horror. It is a larger version of the genocidal war Russia sponsored in Syria a few years ago. The world is not accustomed to seeing war waged in Western cities against Western civilian populations and is reacting not merely with moral outrage but tangible actions designed to inflict real harm on Russia and its supporters.

This brings us to all-important China. While China is staying relatively quiet, it can't be happy with what Russia is doing. I take news stories that China is standing side-by-side with Russia with a grain of salt. China will take a cold-blooded look at the world and do what is in its own interest - period, full stop. And China's ability to triangulate with Russia against the United States is severely compromised by Russian economic distress. China is much better served by an economically stable Russia that can collaborate with it against American interests. Rather than a co-equal partner in an alliance against the United States, however, Russia is turning itself into a needy dependent that will burden China economically, diplomatically and strategically in any anti-American alliance. Rather than accelerate any assault on Taiwan as some suggest, this Ukraine debacle may cause China to reevaluate its plans in view of the new geopolitical landscape. An attack on Taiwan could place China next to Russia in the global isolation ward regardless of China's greater importance to the global economy than Russia. The West is already actively seeking alternative sources for semiconductors and other China-sourced goods. The West has had its fill of fascism in the first two decades of this young century.

The question is no longer whether Putin will take Ukraine. If Putin won't stop his assault, Ukraine is going to fall sooner or later (for the sake of the Ukrainian people, hopefully sooner). The question is what cost he will pay to take Ukraine. He already lost more than he can possibly gain. Putin unleashed chaos that he can't reverse. In one fell swoop, he united a fractured NATO, revived Germany's military spending and potentially its nuclear energy industry, alienated Turkey (which was trying to play both sides of the fence with Russia and the U.S. and whose geopolitical importance can't be exaggerated), and shattered Russia's economy. The longer the war goes on, the worse matters will turn out for Russia.

In the long arc of history, Ukraine is paying the price for what may prove the final collapse of the Russian empire that Putin desperately wants to reassemble. But that empire failed the first time because of precisely the types of destructive and inhumane behavior Putin is now repeating. We may be witnessing the end of Russia as a significant world power. If the country was more than a gas station with nuclear weapons before, it won't be much more than that after this crime against humanity is over. But its actions leave China weaker, not stronger, and America stronger, not weaker, as long as America sees clearly the opportunity presented to step up and lead the world again."

I established a short in (IWM) last yesterday:

Snowflake (SNOW) , a business media fave, melted last night:

Here is Jim Cramer's interview with the company's chairman last night.

Here is a critical view of Snowflake. 

I am less optimistic about growth stocks (and I recently sold my Netflix (NFLX) , Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) ):

From my friends at Miller Tabak:

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Ukraine Set to Slow Growth, but Not the Fed

We begin with three thoughts on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. First, the rising likelihood of a long war keeps the worst case economic scenarios very much on the table. International sanctions, including the unexpected actions against Russia's central bank, are impressive and have created an immediate Russian currency crisis. Although Russian energy exports have not been directly targeted, it is very possible that they will in coming weeks. The direct impact of energy disruptions would be moderate, with 0.5% off of this year's U.S. growth and 2% off EU growth (concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe) being reasonable estimates of a sustained disruption. The impact could be even larger if the war continues to impact risk aversion due to other, non-quantifiable, risk factors (e.g. Putin's allusions to the use of nuclear weapons). Moody's Baa-Treasury spread, one useful measure of risk aversion, is now up to 2.34%, its highest level since 2020.

Second, we disagree with speculation that the Ukraine crisis will slow the Fed down.[1] There isn't a clear channel by which the war will significantly reduce U.S. demand. The impact on U.S. exports will be small. Reduced taste for risk could eventually have such an effect, but it is too early to impact the Fed. The impact on energy prices is clearly the most salient risk factor, but this will compound supply concerns and put upward pressure on inflation. Fed Funds rate futures have backed off on expectations that the Fed will raise rates by 50 bps in later this month. But this is a response to the Fed's own communications, including Chairman Powell's Wednesday Congressional testimony. If the February CPI-inflation data, coming next Wednesday, are as horrible as the January data, then a 50 bps rate could be on the table for the May FOMC meeting. It will not, however, depend on the state of the war.

Third, one of the most startling developments in the crisis was Germany committing to increasing its defense spending above 2% of GDP. A general increase in Western military spending could be one of the bigger long-term economic impacts of the war. There is a widespread misconception about the macroeconomic impacts of defense spending. While they can be an effective form of fiscal stimulus during economic downturns, there is good evidence that they are a negative for trend growth.[2] Given that demand remains strong in most advanced economies, especially the U.S., heightened defense spending would be a negative for the economic outlook.

Most only look at the Ukraine conflict's impact on crude oil as an inflationary factor.

Here, Lisa appropriately highlights food inflation (rising wheat prices):

* The market (and money) never sleeps

"Workin' on our night moves
Trying to lose the awkward teenage blues
Workin' on our night moves
In the summertime
And oh the wonder
Felt the lightning
And we waited on the thunder
Waited on the thunder."

- Bob Seger, "Night Moves"

I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me in this column a few weeks ago. It is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session:

Futures were relatively quiet last night and this morning. (It was another thing for Brent (with crude oil +$4.42/barrel to $117.33!).

S&P futures peaked at +11 and bottomed at -15. At 4:20 am ET we were at -6.

Nasdaq futures topped out at +17 and dropped to -72. At this writing they were at -39.