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After the good (MSFT) guide I sold these at about $434.28 (SPY) and $345.80 (QQQ)
Jan 25, 2022 ' 05:02 PM EST DOUG KASS
After-Hours Add-Backs
I am adding back to my (SPY) and (QQQ) longs in the after hours at $429.75 and $339.03, respectively.
I also sold all my FB at $300.50 on MSFT spike.
To the Sky With Microsoft
Selling my (MSFT) at $296 on good guidance and based on comment that Azure will be up sequentially on growth!
More Than Windows Shopping
I bought a whole bunch of (MSFT) at $275 after the EPS release.
Breadth
At 2:10 pm:
Breadth
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Heat Map
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Movers
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Ringing Cash Register
S&P cash is now down by only -27 handles, with the (SPY) trading at $437 - I am taking off my low conviction trading long rentals put on this morning.
No More LABU
Out of (LABU) for a profit of a beaner ($1)!
It was meant as a very short term long rental.
Scenario #1
I am now adding to my longs as I get increasingly convinced (as best I can!) that my most favorable scenario (#1) may be unfolding:
Jan 25, 2022 ' 10:40 AM EST DOUG KASS
Remaining Flexible in My Short Term View
* But I like what I see so far this morning
If you go back to my opener - I surmised three likely scenarios:
Here are my three most likely outcomes - and to be candid, I don't know which one to expect. I have attached a probability percentage guess in parentheses:
Scenario #1 (50% probability?) The markets retrace a portion of Monday's morning decline, stabilizing well above the day's lows.
Scenario #2 (35% probability?) The S& P rallies from Monday's close of 4410 to 4500-4600 - to the right side of the head and shoulders pattern (below) and then we crack through the 200 day moving average, cracking below 4000.
Scenario #3 (15% probability?) The S&P rallies to 4500-4600 and goes right thru the 100 day moving average to the upside.
Thus far Scenario #1 looks like its proceeding - which was my highest probability.
From my perch, such a successful test from yesterday would actually be the healthiest outcome.
I could be tempted to expand my net exposure if there is more evidence of this outcome.
Stay tuned.
P.S. I reserve the right to change my mind!
Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)
From my old pal Mike (I still bleed Barron's Blue):
Subscriber Comment of the Day
I think banks are turning green as investors are pricing in a less hawkish than feared Fed statement tomorrow. Remember there are many that believe the Fed will do 50 bps in March and stop QE immediately tomorrow. If they suggest data dependence and no decision on the balance sheet, it may be a dovish surprise. Market can rally on that news.
Scaring Out Renters?
Of course the retest has to hold, but I generally like the series of retest in the S&P over the first two hours of trading.
The only problem is that it feels like eight hours!
Has Goldman Sachs Finally Turned?
Loved over $400 by everyone under the sun - I was sporadically short - and now despised.
I am adding.
LABU
Back long (LABU) at $17.30 - short term trade, will close out by the end of the week.
VIX Higher
And now the VIX moves higher.
Ridiculously volatile market.
Banks Turn
Banks and brokerages are turning now - another good signpost.
TROW
New long and old friend, (TROW) ($154.77) - down $70 from relatively recent high.
Some organic growth issues, but still a marvelous franchise.
Takeover always an option.
Declining VIX
The VIX just dropped from 33.75 to 32.86 in the last few minutes for those that are trading very short term.
Breadth
As of 11:08 am:
Breadth
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Movers
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Remaining Flexible in My Short Term View
* But I like what I see so far this morning
If you go back to my opener - I surmised three likely scenarios:
Here are my three most likely outcomes - and to be candid, I don't know which one to expect. I have attached a probability percentage guess in parentheses:
Scenario #1 (50% probability?) The markets retrace a portion of Monday's morning decline, stabilizing well above the day's lows.
Scenario #2 (35% probability?) The S& P rallies from Monday's close of 4410 to 4500-4600 - to the right side of the head and shoulders pattern (below) and then we crack through the 200 day moving average, cracking below 4000.
Scenario #3 (15% probability?) The S&P rallies to 4500-4600 and goes right thru the 100 day moving average to the upside.
Thus far Scenario #1 looks like its proceeding - which was my highest probability.
From my perch, such a successful test from yesterday would actually be the healthiest outcome.
I could be tempted to expand my net exposure if there is more evidence of this outcome.
Stay tuned.
Kill the Quants Before They Kill Our Markets
* Unfortunately, the markets were damaged technically on Monday
* It was for that reason, in part, I sold some SPYs and QQQs after the market closed yesterday
* A market that moves in integers is unhealthy and argues in favor of a heightened regime of volatility
* I blame the computerization of the market and the quants/algos/machines and options players for yesterday's morning's historic drop and for the remarkable rally that followed in the afternoon
* These factors and influences are unpredictable - rendering short term decision making more difficult than I have faced in my career
Monday morning's opener made the case for buying stocks into last week's weakness.
As much as I want to expand my long book further I can't - as yesterday morning's unexpected tortuous decline brought on a huge amount of technical damage to the market and the indexes.
Moreover, a market that moves in integers is innately unhealthy and, increasingly, difficult to navigate.
This is not my father's stock market as the culprits for the wild swings are undistinguishable from the past:
* Leveraged quant strategies and products are unpredictable and often unstable market participants. I continue to be of the view that the changed structure and computerization of the markets gets far too little discussion - especially considering how leveraged and dominant many of the strategies are. The leverage and dominance are offensive and they feed and worship at the altar of price momentum - accentuating short term market swings and their lack of predictability. Machines and algorithms know everything about price and nothing about value. They have no emotion as their sine quo non is price momentum. Once prices began to fall, the machines piled on Monday morning and exacerbated the move which took place with little new fundamental news. We knew about inflation, the Fed's pivot and the threat to corporate margins and economic growth weeks before!
* Exchange traded funds are also dominant market factors and also can be seen as sometimes being an unbalanced player. ETFs are importantly influenced by liquidity - that is now pivoting from plentiful to not so plentiful as the Federal Reserve likely raises rates. According to Goldman Sachs this morning, ETFs represented 40% of yesterday's trading, sitting at an all-time high last seen in March, 2020. Total ETF turnover on Monday hit a new record of $460 billion, beating the prior record of $385 billion in February, 2020:
* Options players - retail and institutional gamma heads - which set up wide and unforecastable market swings because of gamma positioning in individual stocks and in the market, in general.
Let's review Monday's volatile trading session.
In the morning at about 10:30 am, I highlighted the market's oversold when the S&P Index was at about 4280-4300 when I wrote:
Jan 24, 2022 ' 10:25 AM EST DOUG KASS
RSI
The seven day RSI (relative strength index) in the S&P Index is down to 9.5 so we may be close to a short term bottom here.
The seven day RSI got down to eight coincident with the noonish low in the S&P Index at 4223.
The seven day RSI closed the day at 16 but remains oversold.
Here is a four year chart of the seven day S&P RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Source: Peter Boockvar
The 14 day RSI closed at 28 after dropping to 22 at around 10 am and 20 at 12:30 pm.
Here is a four year chart of the 14 day S& P RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Source: Peter Boockvar
Technical Damage
The chart below shows the technical damage done yesterday.
There are obviously numerous outcomes to expect in the next few weeks.
Here are my three most likely outcomes - and to be candid, I don't know which one to expect. I have attached a probability percentage guess in parentheses:
Scenario #1 (50% probability?) The markets retrace a portion of Monday's morning decline, stabilizing well above the day's lows.
Scenario #2 (35% probability?) The S& P rallies from Monday's close of 4410 to 4500-4600 - to the right side of the head and shoulders pattern (below) and then we crack through the 200 day moving average, cracking below 4000.
Scenario #3 (15% probability?) The S&P rallies to 4500-4600 and goes right thru the 100 day moving average to the upside.
My rationale for Scenarios #2 and #3 can be seen by observing the chart below:
Source: Peter Boockvar
Talking Rat Tails !?!?!?!?!?!
* So we he turned up dead I let it go. I said to my self, "this is the business we have chosen." I didn't ask who gave the order because it had nothing to do with business."
- Hyman Roth,The Godfather
Source: One of my good pals and old boss at Putnam
Let's add to the confusion by digging deeper technically - most people don't realize that I am a closet technician!... and talk rat tails! I know it is early to talk about rats but this is the business we have chosen.
We might be in EITHER a rat tail (indicating a bottom) or an inverse rat tail (signaling a top).
A rat tail means a long daily bar line that exists outside the lows or highs of the surrounding days and pictures an intraday reversal that closes at or near the high or low of the day.
Monday was a potential rat tail, meaning we have the isolated down bar as we closed near the high. Should today's low eat up a lot of the extended bar then it no longer exists as an isolated bar or rat tail.
Probably 65% of the time they are erased as there is no continuation of the late move. So we don't know for sure until the close. They are much more common in individual stocks and have a higher success rate as long as the stock retains its isolated bar.
I Call BS
My friend Mooch is on CNBC discussing the merits of Bitcoin and why the drawdown of over 50% should be ignored.
These days there is no discussion ever of crypto as a medium for exchange or trade - not surprising, considering its volatility.
Mooch's rationale and the argument of many other devotees is that more individuals and institutions will accept/buy the asset class.
Isn't that the definition of a Ponzi scheme?
The Book of Boockvar
As Peter documents, credit spreads are beginning to deteriorate - gotta watch this. Any decline in (HYG) and (JNK) is important because the bonds they hold don't trade actively - so what might appear to be a modest drop in prices could be significant:
I'm going to highlight again the high yield market because that is the next market that is beginning to see a 'tightening of financial conditions.' The yield to worst in the Bloomberg High Yield index rose to 4.94% yesterday, up 12 bps and to the highest since November 2020. It was above 5% pre Covid so there is more weakness to come. In terms of spread to Treasuries, it widened by 10 bps yesterday to 319 bps but is also likely headed higher.
The other index I'm watching closely is the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index because we have to wonder, to say again, how much of a tightening will the Fed tolerate. As seen in the chart below, we likely have a lot more tightening ahead of financial conditions as we so way overshot on the easy side by the end of last year.
JUNK YIELD to WORST
YIELD Spread to Treasuries
Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index
While supply chains will ease, while some cost pressure points will calm, I'll repeat again my belief that companies that have absorbed a substantial increase in their own costs over the past year will continue to chip away at recapturing it via price increases. I know this is anecdotal but enough anecdotes pointing in one direction eventually make its way into hard core data. Sonoco, a $5.5b revenue global packaging company, said yesterday "it will raise the price for all paperboard tubes and cores by a minimum of 6% with shipments in the US and Canada, on or after March 1, 2022." The Division VP and GM said "Ongoing market tightness, limited paperboard supply and additional inflationary cost pressures to our primary raw materials (uncoated recycled paperboard and adhesives) make this increase necessary." Assume Sonoco won't be so quick to take away this price increase, even if their own cost pressures ease.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy by shifting up its currency band which would allow for a stronger Singapore dollar in order to cushion higher inflation. The timing was unexpected because they did not have a scheduled meeting today. Their next meeting was on the calendar for April after one last October but this move came after the upside seen yesterday in their CPI data. The MAS said "This move builds on the pre-emptive shift to an appreciating stance in October 2021 and is appropriate for ensuring medium term price stability...While core inflation is expected to moderate in the 2nd half of the year from the elevated levels in the 1st half as supply constraints ease, the risks remain skewed to the upside." The Singapore Straits did fall 1% in response while the Singapore dollar rose slightly.
Australia said its CPI in Q4 (that's how they report it) rose 3.5% y/o/y, 3 tenths more than expected and up from 3% in the prior quarter. Their 'trimmed mean' CPI was up by 2.6%, also 3 tenths above the estimate and vs 2.1% in the quarter before. The Reserve Bank of Australia is not too far from getting run over with their yield curve control last year and now the pressure is on them to end QE in February and talk about rate hikes thereafter. On that growing possibility saw the 2 yr yield rise 6 bps to .92% overnight and that's the highest since September 2019. There was curve flattening as the 10 yr yield was up just 1 bp at 1.95%.
Australia 'Trimmed Mean' CPI y/o/y
Australia 2 yr Yield
Hopes that omicron is going away soon helped to lift the January German IFO business confidence index to 95.7 from 94.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the estimate. The Current Assessment fell .8 pts but the Expectations component led the way with an increase to 95.2 from 92.7. IFO said simply, "The German economy is starting the new year with a glimmer of hope." I'll add, hope for a loosening of supply chains, hope for inventory building for their industrial products, particularly auto's, hope that natural gas and coal prices fall as they shut down all their nuclear plants and Russian tensions escalate, and hope that China ends its zero Covid approach. On the better number, bund yields are higher as are inflation breakevens. The DAX is getting back some of the sharp drop yesterday.
IFO
The UK CBI industrial orders index for January was unchanged at 24. The estimate was 22. No relief though on pricing. The CBI said "The manufacturing sector continues to face intense cost and price pressures, with firms reporting average costs in the quarter to January growing at their quickest rate since April 1980. Firms expect costs to grow at a similar pace over the next three months." The number is not typically market moving but gilt yields are rising as are inflation breakevens which jumped 9 bps yesterday. The pound is weaker along with dollar strength against most. The FTSE 100 lost 2.6% yesterday after a 1.2% fall on Friday but is bouncing by 1% today. It still is one of the cheapest stock markets on the planet.
Why I Made a Tactical Move Last Night
* I sold some SPY and QQQ after the close
* The wide range (lower) in futures trading overnight confirms the move
* The next column will give my explanation
I don't want to bury the lede but yesterday was a truly Ludacris Day - indeed the rally was as Ludacris as I have ever witnessed (or predicted):
Jan 24, 2022 ' 01:00 PM EST DOUG KASS
Ludacris Forecast?
Why not?
Got the last one!
Jan 24, 2022 ' 04:49 PM EST DOUG KASS
It Was a Ludacris Day
* Victory!
Victory, for now, at least -- so I think we deserve a little Johnny Drama.
But, tomorrow is another day, Scarlet.
After the close and following the huge rally I made a small tactical move (which I will fully describe more fully in my next column).
dougie kass • 10 hours ago • edited
Coming up tomorrow:
Kill the Quants Before They Kill Our Markets
* Unfortunately, the markets were damaged technically on Monday
* I blame quants/algos/machines and options players for yesterday's morning's historic drop and for the remarkable rally that followed in the afternoon
* These factors and influences are unpredictable - rendering short term decision making more difficult than I have faced in my career
I sold some SPYs and QQQs in the aftermarket.
Let's discuss tomorrow.
Dougie
See next column...
A Quick Look at Overnight Futures
* The overnight weakness and lower range gives me some pause on the markets -- as it shows more potential vulnerability
* So does the higher VIX (32.19 this morning, +2.29)
We have a lot to discuss this morning so let's get at it.
I described the importance that overnight futures trading holds for me in this column last week -- it is a guidepost to my strategy in the regular trading session:
Jan 20, 2022 ' 08:00 AM EST DOUG KASS
Why the Overnight Futures Market Is Very Important to Me
* In a regime of heightened volatility, an analysis of overnight futures trading provides an important tactical perspective
* Changing market structure requires a more complex analysis - outside of normal trading hours - in order to trade on a short term basis
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Stocks moved in integers during Monday's trading session and also moved in integers in the overnight futures session -- this means to me that much more volatility lies ahead.
That said, it was a very active night in the futures market, which should not be surprising considering Monday's intraday swings.
The overnight range bias was lower and clearly the big dips in futures at the lows (seen during the night and very early morning) gives me a sense of possible downside exposure (and potential vulnerability) today.
S&P futures hit a high of -1 handles, a low of -78 (!) and are now (5:45 am) -38 handles.
Nasdaq futures hit a high of +10, a low of -350(!), and are now -199 handles.
Position: Long SPY, QQQ
Important Technical Tweets of the Day
I find a technical picture sometimes is worth a thousand words!
Here is a broad compilation of technical observations by people that I respect like Charlie, Liz Ann, Bespoke, Ryan, Michael, etc.:
Monday was the largest intraday reversal in two years. As you can see in the first tweet, yesterday's price action formed a bullish hammer candle with a long lower wick. Hammer candles are often found at the end of sharp declines, and typically mark some sort of short-term bullish reversal. It's often said that hammer candles help to "nail in" a market bottom. The low in the S&P wick, around 4230, now offers a clear risk level to trade against (see my next post on overnight futures observations):