Thanks for reading my Diary today.
Enjoy the evening.
Be safe.

Barron's featured Bakish and Redstone's ViacomCBS (VIAC) buys this weekend. (Also, this.) 

That may have accounted for the early morning strength which has now faded.

I added, again.

Cannabis stocks, not surprisingly, and after a very sharp move, are suffering from profit taking after Representative Nancy Mace introduced her States Reform Act this afternoon:

I don't expect the selling to be very deep from here. 

I am a buyer under the market.

I have been on and off short (MARA) for months.

Of course, I am not short today on the news of a SEC subpoena. 

Paradise lost.

Tomorrow I will be appearing (virtually) on The Money Show with Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni and a bunch of other talking heads!

Tesla's (TSLA) shares are -$44/share today ($989.70). 

Elon Musk's Tesla sales have gotten a lot of publicity but there has been little press with regard to the sizeable insider sales by his brother Kimbal Musk, as well as by the Chairman of the Board of Directors Robyn Denholm, who sold 25k shares for $28.5 million.

Boeing (BA) is trading at $231.6 (+$10.65/share) - I have hedged all my stock with calls just now.

I received several emails from subscribers as to my weighting of a speculative stock like FibroGen (FGEN) . 

Give my risk appetite/profile - I am actually quite conservative - I would not likely have more than a 1% percent position in a company with the characteristics of FGEN.

Right now I am only between 0.5% and 1.0% - and that is an exposure I feel comfortable with for the time being.

Morgan Stanley (MS) seems to be alone in their cautiousness.

Once known as Euro

Doug- At risk of being labeled a 'hater' I have to ask why you posted your short sale of RIVN on the day of the IPO? I take you at your word that you are still 'small' in the name and yet that's after applying the infinite funnel a couple times last week and now a quadruple up today. I'm not afraid to double up and add to losing trades, that's not my concern. But to still be 'small sized' one would have had to been micro sized on the original short! You have subscribers who respect your opinions and more importantly follow your trades. I've been around long enough to know you don't recommend subs follow your shorts, especially when funneling, but I have to go back to my original question; Why post a short of the hottest IPO in years and not make clear that the position was a micro sized giggle trade?

dougie kass Once known as Euro

1. editedicizing you should read the archives of posts on Rivian.
2. But maybe its just the way I would handle "constructive criticism" leveled towards others.
3. I have been quite specific that shorting is not for most.
4. Your comment fails to address that most subscribers don't take my ideas (or others) on face value and are sophisticated traders/investors
5. They do their own research - which the embodiment of my message to subscribers for 24 years.
Dougie

dougie kass Once known as Euro

Euro

I have to say and I write this respectfully I couldn't be more specific about the size of this short. (see post)

You have been very clear in your criticism in the manner I buy and short stocks (funneling).
In part because of your criticism I have tried to be even more transparent when, as is the case with Rivian, that I am shorting ODDLOTS.

I mean I even use the word as a means of emphasis.

I don't think I could be more specific.

And I am sorry, I don't understand your criticism in this case - but you can write whatever you want to and criticize however you deem appropriate.

My skin is very thick at this stage of my life.

Lizard like.

Dougie

Nov 12, 2021 ' 10:05 AM EST DOUG KASS

RIVN Moves

I just shorted another oddlot of Rivian (RIVN) at $127.69. (Borrow freed up).

My cost basis is about $118 now.

Home gamers shouldn't try this.

Now, borrows on RIVN have opened up further this morning.

I am adding on a scale higher (just put out some at $131) - my cost basis moves into the low $120s.

Still quite small and inconsequential - but being transparent, and I know the haters want to know as they cheer on for this to be a poor short from the peanut gallery.

Position: Short RIVN

Nov 11, 2021 ' 12:45 PM EST DOUG KASS

Rivian Borrow

I tried to get a borrow on Rivian (RIVN) just now for the purpose of putting out some shorts on a scale higher - but no luck on the borrow thus far.

From yesterday:

Nov 10, 2021 ' 01:50 PM EST DOUG KASS

I Got a Borrow

I am short (RIVN) at $108.77.

Sized small.

Position: Short RIVN

Home gamers shouldn't try this.

More positive (FGEN) input, here.

- I just sold nearly 4x what I came into the day short in Rivian  (RIVN) (average price $145.27).

My overall cost basis on RIVN is now about $139.

Still "playing" and small-sized though.

- Home Depot (HD) reports before the opening tomorrow. 

I currently have no dog in the hunt but I think they will release a reasonably good sized beat - but could warn about availability of product going into year-end.

- This is likely the proximate cause for the market selloff:

(SPY) just made an intraday low at $467.40 after trading +$2 earlier in the morning.

Pressing shorts.

I am selling small Boeing (BA) , adding to (FGEN) , and I am increasing my overall short exposure.

* Where is the $100 million of extra cash coming into the company's coffers from between now and year-end?

As I discussed in my thesis, FibroGen (FGEN) has done a great job of right sizing the company and preserving cash as it finances its drug research and development projects and ongoing trials: 

Meanwhile, the company is right sizing its operations and optimizing cash flow for the purpose of continuing to finance and complete ongoing trials in the event that Roxa can only be delivered outside of the U.S. By reducing operating expenses (and headcount), FibroGen can continue to work on a path forward for Roxadustat in the U.S., maximize non U.S. Roxadustat sales - which currently have good momentum - and complete Matterhorn and advance the trials of three applications of Pamrevlumab and embark upon other research and development efforts. 

I have been concerned about cash burn but the above moves - of right sizing the company and preserving cash - is a relief to me and I have begun to add to this name since the quarter was released and the company's actions were revealed.

At the end of the previously reported (second) quarter, management had projected that cash balances would be about $485 million at year-end. However, in last week's call the company's CFO said cash would approximate $600 million at year end, and that would include "certain one time payments": 

The company's has embarked upon a strategy of reducing operating expenses and cash burn by about $100 million annually after the FDA rejection of Roxadustat a few months ago and in an attempt to give room for research and trials of Pamrevlumab, for IPF, LAPC, DMD, and other drugs. Head count has been reduced. This will result in year end 2021 cash of about $600 million, or $6/share - much better than initially anticipated and planned. 2022's cash burn should be about $140 million, resulting in about $5/share in cash in 13 months. 

The 30 job cuts projected by FibroGen - during the conference call - would barely make a dent in the cash burn through the remainder of the year.  

A friend pursued the question with the CFO - but the CFO refused to give any color on the payments. 

So, where is FibroGen getting the $100 million in cash over the next quarter? 

There appears to be three possible options:  

* A European corporate partner.

*  A financing from outside investors in China.

* Or the real wild card would be a limited approval of Roxadustat which would trigger a payment from AstraZeneca (AZN) . 

Any of these options would likely trigger a big increase in FibroGen's share price. 

This morning I am going to deliver a few additional columns on FibroGen (FGEN) - a company I highlighted last week, here. 

I want to emphasize that this is a speculative biotech company that should be weighted accordingly. So, just because I am spending more time discussing the company this morning does not mean it is without risk. 

That said, when I analyze and think about FGEN, as always, I look at upside reward relative to downside risk. 

Based on my analysis I see about $5-$7 of downside and about $15-$20 of upside in this name. 

That, to me, is an attractive reward vs. risk. 

FGEN has been a small position for me - but last week I started to increase my exposure in the name.

From Peter Boockvar: 

The November NY manufacturing index, the first November industrial number to be released, rose to 30.9 from 19.8 in October and that was better than the estimate of 22 and compares with 34.3 in September. As the internals are always very volatile month to month, I'll again compare the November data with the 6 month averages. New orders 28.8 vs 25.2, backlogs 12.7 vs 14.5, delivery times 32.2 vs 30.8, prices paid 83 vs 78.4, prices received 50.8 vs 43.5 and inventories 9.3 vs 8.7. With the labor market, employment was 26 vs 18.2 and the Workweek was 23.1 vs 16.8.

By the way, that prices received figure of 50.8 is a fresh record high for this 20 yr survey and compares with the 7.2 pt 20 yr average. Also, the employment component is at a record high.

What was disappointing within the data was the 6 month business outlook which fell to 36.9 from 52 in October and vs 45.2 for the 6 month average. That also is a 6 month low. Expectations for new orders declined to 34.4 from 51 in October and vs the 6 month average of 42.5 and those for Employment declined to 30.6, 8 pts below the 6 month average. Expectations for prices paid rose to 72, 6 pts above the 6 month average and those received grew by 6 pts to 55.9 vs the half yr average of 52.1. Positively, capital spending expectations both for equipment and technology rose m/o/m and both are above their 6 month averages.

Bottom line, we know there is still a major imbalance between the supply and demand of goods that is causing a lot of headaches in Corporate America and the decline in the 6 month business outlook and some of the key internals points to still limited visibility and clarity as to how this plays out and not any time soon. That said, they are still intent on investing in their businesses as seen in the increase in capital spending.

NY MFR'g index

PRICES RECEIVED

EMPLOYMENT

Phillip Brantley

It's nice to see that VIAC's Yellowstone is smashing records:

"The already very big season four premiere of Yellowstone tacked on even more viewers in the three days after its debut.

Per Nielsen figures, the drama has a cumulative audience of 14.7 million viewers over three days, including a simulcast three other ViacomCBS channels (CMT, TV Land and Pop) and same-night replays. The bump from delayed viewing pushed the show past NBC's Sunday Night Football (14.3 million) in the three-day ratings.

On Paramount Network alone, the premiere grew to 10.5 million viewers, a jump of about 2.38 million (29 percent) over the 8.12 million who watched on Sunday. It's up by about 61 percent over the season three premiere (6.5 million) in June 2020." The Hollywood Reporter.

"As of now, the show stands as the #1 series of 2021 across all television- which includes broadcast, cable, and premium networks, and it is the most-watched season premiere on cable since "The Walking Dead" in 2017." Variety.

Jimmy Carter on inflation: 

So maybe the 1970's comparison is a good one. 

Thanks to challenges with the supply and transportation of goods along with selective COVID restrictions, the Japanese economy contracted at a 3% q/o/q annualized rate in Q3. The estimate was for a decline of .7%. As we're fully aware of the factors behind the fall in growth, there wasn't any market response as JGB yields and inflation breakevens were unchanged. The yen is little changed too while the Nikkei rose .6%. I'm still positive on Japanese stocks.

China reported some October data. Retail sales grew by 4.9% y/o/y, above the estimate of up 3.7% and after a 4.4% increase in September. Industrial production was higher by 3.5% vs the forecast of 3% and vs 3.1% in the month prior. Fixed asset investment ytd was up 6.1% as expected. China's economy is juggling so many balls with residential real estate under major stress, little tolerance for COVID outbreaks, energy supply now coming back but with supply shortages and very high transportation costs still clear and a regulatory whack a mole approach to some of its leading companies and industries.

Speaking of residential property in China, new home prices fell .25% m/o/m in October and lower for a 2nd month. It was early 2015 the last time we saw m/o/m price declines. Only 13 of 70 cities surveyed saw a price increase from September with 52 seeing a fall. For existing homes, only 4 saw gains with 64 saying prices fell. At the same time, new construction is falling off a cliff with a 33% y/o/y drop in starts after a 13.5% decline in September. While Chinese banks are easing lending standards to buyers who use a mortgage, this slowdown still has a ways to go in playing out but it's clear that the Chinese government wants to spread any pain out as long as possible to avoid economic shocks.

Chinese stocks were higher while bond yields fell one bp. The offshore yuan is unchanged vs the dollar. We'll see what comes of the China/US coffee talk. More than 20 US business associations sent a letter to the Biden administration and its trade officials this past Friday to get rid of, or at least reduce, the tariffs on China which these US companies are paying for. "Tariffs continue to disproportionately cause economic harm to US businesses, farmers, workers and families" said the US associations. In the inflationary world we currently live in, if there was a time to get rid of them to provide some relief it is now. I was dead set against them from day 1 as the desired tool to stick it to China and remain even more so.

ECB president Christine Lagarde continues to take the 'there is nothing to see here' approach to the current inflation picture. She said to the European Parliament today, "As the recovery continues to supply bottlenecks unwind, we can expect the price pressure on goods and services to normalize. We do see wage growth next year potentially rising somewhat more than this year, but the risk of 2nd round effects remains limited." Rather than choosing to head off the current inflation scare she's instead afraid to step on demand, "If we were to have any kind of tightening approach to the current situation, it would actually do more harm than good. It would begin having an impact at a time when inflation is actually returning to lower levels." I blame Mario Draghi for the negative rate situation he left Lagarde but with still massive QE ongoing, maintaining such an uber dovish stance in the face of all the inflationary pressures is really a dangerous high stakes game the ECB is playing. 

From Marijuana Moment: Biden's FDA Pick Prescribed Cannabinoid Medicine and Recognized Marijuana's Therapeutic Potential.

* My revised levels

I don't want there to be any ambiguity about the size of my positions, or about my buy and short levels, as I strive for as much transparency as possible.

This column is a continued commitment towards that sort of disclosure.

"When the time comes to buy, you won't want to." (March 2019)

- Walter Deemer

"When the time comes to sell/short, you won't want to." (August 2021)

- Doug Kass

I promised to update my "levels" at least once a month.

My last update was on October 5th.

My "official coverage list" now includes 95 names (51 longs and 44 shorts).

Here are some of my new individual buy/short levels of stocks that I want to add to or reestablish on weakness, and in the case of shorts, to sell on strength:

BUYS

-- Facebook (FB) $310

-- Amazon (AMZN) $3,325

-- Alphabet (GOOGL) $2,775

-- Papa John's (PZZA) $120

-- FedEx (FDX) $235

-- Hartford Financial Services (HIG) $65

-- Goldman Sachs (GS) $350

-- Twitter (TWTR) $50.50

-- Macy's (M) $22

-- Dillard's (DDS) $245

-- Kohl's (KSS) $46

-- Comcast (CMCSA) $53

-- Bank of America (BAC) $42.50

-- Citigroup (C) $70

-- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) $155

-- PNC (PNC) $195

-- Wells Fargo (WFC) $45.50

-- Procter & Gamble (PG) $135

-- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) $172

-- Silver Trust (SLV) $22.50

-- Kraft Heinz (KHC) $37

-- Walt Disney (DIS) $155

-- Morgan Stanley (MS) $90

-- Verizon (VZ) $53

-- Micron (MU) $72

-- Penn National Gaming (PENN) $52

-- Draft Kings (DKNG) $38

-- Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) $42

-- TreeHouse Foods (THS) $34

-- J.M. Smucker (SJM) $118

-- General Motors (GM) $55

-- Ford (F) $16.50

-- Boeing (BA) $220

-- Walmart (WMT) $132

-- Vanguard Value (VTV) $136

-- Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR) $176

-- Financial Select (XLF) $36.50

-- ViacomCBS (VIAC) $37

-- ViacomCBS Convert Sub. Debt (VIAC) $62

-- Discovery (DISCA) $27.50

-- Discovery (DISCK) $26.50

-- Coinbase (COIN) $265

-- AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) $32

-- ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) $15

-- Tilray (TLRY) $12

-- Fibrogen (FGEN) $13

-- A T&T (T) $25.50

-- Invesco (IVZ) $26.50

-- Wynn Resorts (WYNN) $88

-- Alibaba (BABA) $155

-- Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) ($166)


SHORTS

-- Apple (AAPL) $138

-- Netflix (NFLX) $655

-- ARK (ARKK) $120

-- Carvana (CVNA) $310

-- Zoom (ZM) $290

-- Tesla (TSLA) $950

-- Rivian (RIVN) $115

-- KKR & Co. (KKR) $74

-- Blackstone Group (BX) $135

-- Caterpillar (CAT) $210

-- Fastenal (FAST) $58

-- Beyond Meat (BYND) $100

-- T Rowe Price (TROW) $210

-- Franklin Resources (BEN) $32

-- Peloton (PTON) $65

-- Hilton (HLT) $135

-- Live Nation (LYV) $115

-- Plug Power (PLUG) $30

-- Delta Air Lines (DAL) $44

-- United Air Lines (UAL) $50

-- Marathon Digital (MARA) $70

-- MicroStrategy (MSTR) $800

-- GameStop (GME) $190

-- AMC Entertainment (AMC) $35

-- Gingo Bioworks (DNA) $13)

-- Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) $40

-- Robinhood (HOOD) $43

-- Krispy Kreme (DNUT) $14

-- F45 Training (FXLV) $14

-- Wayfair (W) $255

-- Mastercard (MA) $368

-- Visa (V) $225

-- American Express (AXP) $170

-- Starbucks (SBUX) $110

-- JOYY (YY) $50

-- Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD) $77

-- Sleep Number (SNBR) $87.50

-- Berkeley Lights (BLI) $25

-- Match Group (MTCH) $155

-- Home Depot (HD) $365

-- SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) $460

-- Invesco (QQQ) $380

-- Russell Index (IWM) $235

-- Bonds (TLT) $148
__________ 

Long C, MSOS, TLRY, MJ, FGEN, BA, JNJ, GOOGL, AMZN, IVZ, GLD common and calls, VIAC common and calls, DISCK, T.

Short C calls, MSOS calls, TLRY calls, MJ calls, FGEN calls, BA calls, IVZ calls, VIAC puts, BLI, SPY calls, LSPD, YY, DWAC, DNA, W, FXLV, KREM, HOOD, FAST, T puts, SNBR, SBUX.

Very good news for Boeing over the weekend:

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's aviation regulator has told airlines it is satisfied that design changes Boeing Co proposed for its 737 MAX plane could resolve safety problems, in a sign it is closer to lifting a more than two-year flight ban in Chinese skies.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) invited airlines to give feedback on a proposed airworthiness directive for the 737 MAX by Nov. 26, according to an undated notice seen by Reuters.

The directive outlines specific procedures for pilots to perform in case of problems similar to those that emerged in two deadly crashes before the plane's grounding in March 2019. It also lists all the systems that must be functioning in order for the plane to be dispatched.

A return to the skies in China, the world's biggest aircraft market, would be a major boon to Boeing. Broker Jefferies said in September an announcement would be worth a 5% boost to the stock price.

The United States and Europe last year sought industry feedback on similar proposed directives before ultimately approving the return of the 737 MAX.

Credit Suisse raises target price on EVgo, Inc.  (EVGO) - but downgrades the stock:

• Raise TP to $17, but downgrade to Neutral as recent stock rally appears to have priced in the benefits of the infrastructure bill and expanded partnerships with GM and Uber. The company delivered a solid beat in Q3 with network throughput of 8.0 GWh beating CS est 6.5/7.3 GWh in Q3/Q4. However management guided Q4 throughput flat q/q due to seasonality, vs our prior assumption of 12% growth q/q. Management raised 2021 guidance for revenues/adj EBITDA, though cumulative charger count ~1760 stalls exiting 2021 fell short of prior guidance (2200) owing to permitting challenges. We increase our TP by $6 to $17 due to faster EV sales, accelerated EV charger installations, incentives for reducing capex/opex from the infrastructure bill, and higher throughput of charger network. However, most of the value from the infrastructure bill is priced in, and street likely implies the company captures >20% share of all incentives, which is likely but uncertain at this stage till we get additional details around how the government will spend $7.5b over the next five years for EV charging. The company has a first mover advantages, but also faces potential competition from new entrants in a technology agnostic capital intensive industry. We see upside in our blue sky ($31) from faster EV charging growth and higher margins.
• 2021 guidance raised: Revenue of $20-$22m vs. prior guidance of $20m, driven by higher throughput of 24-26 GWh vs. prior guidance of 24 GWh. Adj EBITDA of $(54)-$(58)m above prior guidance $(58)m. Furthermore, the company initiated guidance on operational stalls. EVgo guided 280-320 stalls operational in 2021, and 220-260 stalls under construction at the end of 2021. Total 1890-1970 stalls operational or under construction. exiting 2021, below our est of 2200 stalls exiting 2021.
• Estimate changes: Our $17 target price is based on a DCF and uses a 3% terminal growth rate with an 11% WACC, with a 70% probability of reconciliation bill upside potential and tax incentives for EV chargers. We increase our 2021 EPS to $(0.27), from $(0.37), due to higher throughput. WE reduce our 2022/2023 EPS to $(0.46)/$(0.30), from $(0.33)/$(0.22) due to higher near-term growth opex, partially offset by higher throughput (benefits later years). Risks: Competition, changes in incentives and tax credits, supply constraints for EV charger equipment, and end-market EV demand.

With the word that Elon Musk is considering selling more Tesla (TSLA) stock, the shares look like they will break par (to the downside) in premarket trading.

From Danielle DiMartino Booth:

• The record 4.3 million U.S. workers who quit in September total 3.0% of total employment, a sign of increasing worker confidence; geographically, quits were highest in the South at 3.3%, and were outsized in food/accommodation and arts/entertainment at 6.6% and 5.7%
• Though off a record high 7%, job openings still remain at an extraordinarily high 6.6% of total employment; however, per UMich's most recent survey, Current Conditions slumped to 73.2, an August 2011 low, while Expectations slid further to 66.8, an October 2013 low
• Buying conditions for household goods slipped to a 78 in UMich's latest read, the lowest since 1978; and despite a record number of quits, one in four households anticipate being worse off in 12 months and the Democrat-Republican expectations divide hit a new high

I remain of the view that supply chains dislocations and inflation are not transitory. 

Here is more on the supply chain.

Dougie Kass

The price of a future dollar of business profit (equities) has never been valued more highly in the markets than it is today, and the rate of return on a promise to pay nominal money in the future (bonds) has never been lower than it is today. These forces combine to make today's trading and investing landscape extraordinarily treacherous.

If the current radically expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, which represent a continuation and even an expansion of emergency policies long after the emergency is over, are appropriate despite today's strongly growing economies and wide availability of jobs, then logically all of the fiscal and monetary policies of the developed world from 1945 to 2008 were too tight, a multidecade series of nonstop policy mistakes. @SquawkCNBC@jimcramer@tomkeene@WilfredFrost@FerroTV