DAILY DIARY
Supersizing My Disney Short
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."
- Warren Buffett
In late March I purchased Disney (DIS) and placed in on my "Best Ideas List" at $93. At that time, the herd, fearful of the impact of Covid-19, hated the stock, which hit a multi-year low.
The shares are trading in the after hours above $195 now on top and bottom line beats.
Everyone loves Disney as an "opening up trade."
While streaming subs slightly beat expectations, DIS + ARPU was disappointing:
I faded the consensus eleven months ago and I am doing the same today.
The reason I am shorting the shares is that if you apply conservative multipliers to the cash flow of the company's non streaming business - the balance, streaming, has a ridiculously high valuation.
I have moved to a very large short in this name in the after hours.
This entry has been updated.
Adding to Disney Short
I added to my Disney (DIS) short at $195.03 in after hours trading.
A Gambling Joint?
Tilray (TLRY) has traded 205 million shares today.
The company's shares outstanding total 158 million shares and the float is only 95 million shares.
This is not trading... it's gambling.
Hasta mañana
Thanks for reading my diary today.
Enjoy the evening.
Be safe!
Subscriber Comment of the Day (and My Response)
FT - US securities regulators on Thursday suspended trading in a seemingly defunct company whose shares had attracted the attention of investors over the past two months.The decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission to bar trading in SpectraScience, a Minnesota healthcare company, comes as new and inexperienced retail traders have flooded into the country's $45tn stock market, drawing scrutiny from policymakers in Washington.The SEC said social media accounts may have been used in a co-ordinated attempt to "artificially influence" the share price of the company, which does not have a working phone line or website and has not filed quarterly financial results since 2017.
what else is new? there are so many of these!
- dougie
Tweet of the Day (Part Four)
Multiplying Short Opportunities
As I mentioned in my opener and during the last several days, the short opportunities are multiplying - with outstanding reward vs. risk ratios.
Within the last 10 days I have made +30% on a (GME) short, +45% on a (AMC) short and, today, +45% on a (TLRY) short - all three trades have encompassed a day or three in duration.
More such opportunities are now likely on hand for the aggressive and bold short term trader.
Motivated to Short
I am motivated to short more by the rather steady drop in market breadth from the opening.
Bonds and Banks
Bonds continue to roll over hard.
I remain short bonds in size.
I like the banks on any further weakness.
Short Expansion
Expanding still further my short book now.
KHC Scores
Long standing investment long - and laggard - Kraft Heinz (KHC) shot and scored mightily today with better than expected EPS results.
I remain very large long this conservative name.
More tomorrow on the quarter.
Midday Update From Sir Arthur Cashin
Here is a midday update from Sir Arthur Cashin (the morning comments appear at the bottom):
The averages rolled over and turned lower, but not with a lot of conviction. Energy sector is one of the leaders on the downside as is Apple (AAPL) .
Coincidentally, Telsa (TSLA) and Bitcoin rose together just as they fell together yesterday. Let's hope this is not a habit forming event. The bulls will need to regroup and keep the losses small to remain credible if they were to sell more vigorously, we might need to take a second look at the underlying technicals.
Stay safe and have a great weekend
Arthur
__________
Morning comments 2/11/21:
Wednesday's equity trading started off reasonably well for the bulls. The inflation data, particularly the CPI, was very mild and that seemed to more than offset concerned raised by an op-ed from the Former New York Fed President, Bill Dudley, warning of inflationary pressures that may force the Fed and, maybe even the Treasury to back off stimulus and other such things.
When the CPI came out mild, the bid in equities grew stronger and, the fact that the milder inflation data may have been a factor was underscored by bonds where the yields came in a little bit further, indicating less inflationary pressure.
At any rate, the morning went reasonably well until late morning, when stocks suddenly reversed and several of the averages moved to the downside.
As you will see from the update reprinted below, the reason was tough to pin down. The big techs were among the first early losers and carried the rest of the market with them. Headlines on the news tickers did not seem to show specific cause. Again, read the update and you will see what I was thinking at the time. And, later, when Fed Chair Powell was speaking and reinforced the fact the Fed had no interest whatsoever in changing their current dovish posture.
Once again Tesla provided one of the topics of conversation and, perhaps one of the oddities of trading on Wednesday. As you may recall, they got a lot of notoriety when the Board put a portion of their balance sheet into Bitcoin. Well, yesterday, Bitcoin got hit pretty hard -- down between 4 and 5%. And, a little bit later, Tesla was hit and ultimately closed down almost the same percent, raising questions in traders' minds as to whether it would now trade in line with Bitcoin. That makes little or no sense but, nevertheless, the market believes whatever it wants to believe so we will continue to watch -- is the trading in Tesla influenced by the movement in Bitcoin?
There is never a dull moment here in Wall Street.
One of the factors in yesterday's was that the folks in the Reddit chatroom embarked on a new offensive. They started pushing and rallying the pot stocks. It is a minor version of the short squeeze in that most of these marijuana companies do have short positions of 20 to 25% but none of them that I know of has over 100%. It would be interesting to see if the financial media continues to buy into the idea that the Reddit chatroom is somehow a retail rebellion in Wall Street. If we ever get to investigations, I will bet you dollars to donuts that we will find out that there have been some big guys trying to manipulate the crowd - maybe even a couple of hedge funds - pointing things out, drawing buying power and boosting whatever sector they are challenging and then taking profits and stepping back. But the financial media wants to buy the idea of a revolution in Wall Street democracy.
Overnight the equity futures show strength but certainly don't appear to be frothy. We still remain up near record levels. I would contend, however, that this week the market has not flown past the concern that the short-term seasonal pattern might have brought a pause or flatten in here. We have moved choppily but laterally without any major swings.
European stocks are better generally better as earnings in Europe are boosting the bulls across the pond. Asian markets are slowing as we approach the Lunar New Year. (Tokyo and Mainland China are already closed.) We will see if the Chinese authorities make any further liquidity shifts.
The impeachment drags on. Catching lots of attention and headlines but not a factor in the market by any means so far. It could end as early as next week then we will move on from here.
Today's is the day with the multiple conjunctions, etc. that Arch Crawford warned about. We will see if it does result in a clear shift in trend. Will the market top out or, in fact, just ignore things?
At any rate, we will look forward to a day that may or may not have some surprises built in.
Housekeeping Note
Both Wonder Woman and, her new and very capable associate, have important engagements for tomorrow so there will be no Comments on Friday. We wish you a very happy, long weekend and, especially, Happy President's Day. Be back to see you Tuesday.
Stay Safe.
Arthur
The Data Mattas
Furthering the discussion on the importance to rents to the direction of CPI from here, where they make up 30% of the core rate. Below is a chart I found from Michael Ashton that reflects the profound impact that rent/eviction moratoriums have had on rent prices.
Thus, as these roll off, cushioned by more government transfer payments for those that need it, along with a further reopening of the economy in coming quarters, I expect rent growth to inflect higher.
By then, we'll see what the goods side of the inflation equation is doing and whether the inflation argument, which I'm a firm believer in, is real or not.
Yesterday we saw a mixed 10-year note auction and today we have a weak 30-year bond auction. The yield of 1.933% was about one basis point above the when issued. The bid to cover of $2.18 was below the one year average of $2.35 and down sharply from the $2.47 seen last month. That's also the lowest since August. Lastly, direct and indirect bidders took 78% of the auction, about in line with the 12 month average of 79%.
Yields are at the highs of the day in response with the 30-year in particular up four bps on the day and up two since the results at 1.94% to 1.95%. The 10 year yield is also up 4 bps to 1.16%, up one basis point since results. The implied inflation rate 30 years out is at 2.13%, down one basis point on the day but that is just below the highest since October 2018.
Here is a 10-year chart on the 30-year 30 inflation breakeven:
Here is a 10-year chart on the 30-year yield:
Special Lunch
Birthday lunch with some friends coming up.
No tell in'.
Speculative Stocks
Shorting more speculative stocks now.
The Book of Boockvar
Pete on sentiment:
Yesterday, Investors Intelligence said in its survey that Bulls rose to 58.6 from 57.8 last week. It's still below the extreme of 60+ but still considered stretched above 55. Bears too were higher at 18.3 from 16.7 so the spread narrowed a touch to 40.3, still wide but a slight tweak. According to AAII, the bulls came roaring back with an 8.1 pt w/o/w gain to 45.5, a 5 week high. Bears fell by 9.3 pts to 26.3, a 6 week low. Bottom line, the bulls of course have been dead right so just because sentiment remains very bullish doesn't mean anything until it does.
AAII BULL/BEAR Spread
There is not much to report from overseas other than a January wholesale price index out of Germany which jumped by 2.1% m/o/m after a .6% rise in December. The y/o/y change was still zero but that compares with a decline of 1.2% in the month prior. This joins the upside surprise in Germany's CPI for January but which was in part due to some one time factors. This number is never market moving and is not again today. European bond yields are down slightly while the German 10 yr breakeven is lower by 1 bp to 1.05%. The euro is up slightly while European bourses are mixed.
After listening to Jay Powell yesterday and other of his colleagues, it is crystal clear that the rate of employment is their main focus and while they are also rooting for higher inflation, they will for sure tolerate higher prints for a while because of their fear of pulling back and the tantrum it will (not could, will) cause. San Francisco Fed President Daly in an interview said "For now, we have policy in a good place. If you take the lens of my modal outlook, then it's really continuing to purchase at the current pace through the end of this year." I'll just say this, monetary policy is NOT in a good place when rates are at zero and the Fed is doing $120b of QE per month while still buying MBS with home prices rising almost 10% per annum. That's a bad place at an emergency pace. A good place would be no QE and thus no major market distortions and a real rate that is not deeply negative and maybe one day positive again.
The euro heavy dollar index is at a key level, sitting right on its 50 day moving average.
Some Good Morning Reads
* The housing boom.
* Will we be safe from higher interest rates?
* Fidelity's secret weapon against Robinhood and Vanguard.
If All the Hippies Cut Off All Their Hair - I Don't Care
* All along the watchtower speculation is running amok
If the sun refused to shine
I don't mind, I don't mind (Yeah)
If the mountains fell in the sea
Let it be, it ain't me (Alright)
Got my own world to look through and uh
And I ain't gonna copy you
Yes, now if six turned out to be nine
I don't mind, I don't mind
If all the hippies cut off all their hair
I don't care, I don't care, dig
'Cause I got my own world to live through and uh
And I ain't gonna copy you
White collared conservative flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me, huh
They're hoping soon my kind will drop and die
But I'm gonna wave my freak flag high, high, oh
- Jimi Hendrix, If 6 Was 9
The 1967 song, If 6 Was 9, was written and performed by Jimi Hendrix. In early 1969 it appeared on the soundtrack of Easy Rider.
The song was described as an "individualist anthem" and the lyrics portray the underlying conflict of the counterculture, the hippies, of the 1960s with the "white collared conservative" business world of the establishment.
A part Cherokee Hendrix embraced the existential voice of the youth movement and embraced Frank Waters' "Book of the Hopi" with these words:
"I'm the one that's gonna have to die when it's time for me to die/so let me live my life/the way I want to."
In the last few days my Diary has delivered serious concerns about the market's speculative atmosphere in EV, cryptocurrencies, SPACs, et al:
* Daily Affirmations on Reflecting
* My Short Book is Getting Very Dicey
* Few Should Implement This Strategy
* All Bubble Pathologies Are In Place
* Contrary to the Conventional View, The Case For Short Selling Has Improved
In the last two weeks I have made trades which profited by about +50% (AMC) and +30% GME in a matter of hours.
While those opportunities were unique, these days I see short setups that are as attractive as at any time in my career.
Speculation is now running amok with the latest rendition, to borrow a title from another Jimi song, as "The Wind Cries Mary" with a new found and thriving urge for cannabis stocks.
Back to Hendrix:
"Nobody know what I'm talking about
I got my own life to live
I'm the one that's going to die when it's time for me to die
So let me live my life the way I want to
There, sing on, brother
Play on, drummer"
Orwell Meets Mackay
My opener addresses the heightened speculative market activity.
In keeping with that theme, I highly recommend this column:
The Dystopian Bubble: George Orwell Meets Charles Mackay
Chart of the Day (Part Deux)
The first Cares Act sent retail sales above pre Covid-19 levels -- can it be sustained next year without stimulus? I doubt it:
Chart of the Day
Sundial's (SNDL) average daily volume has been running over two billion shares a day:
Tweet of the Day (Part Trois)
Here we go, projections begin to be downgraded:
Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)
Tweet of the Day
For those that are interested in platinum, here is a terrific source!
Transient Two Ways
Danielle DiMartino Booth on the inversion of the breakeven inflation curve:
As of yesterday, the 2/5/10/30 breakeven inflation curve read 2.53%, 2.33%, 2.19%, and 2.14%; the six inflation spreads are simultaneously inverted, which hasn't happened in data back to 2005, and reflects rates traders' expectation that the inflation scare is transitory Past inversions of the core-headline CPI inflation spread have tended to coincide with the 2s5s BE curve; consequently, February's inverted 2s5s curve points to headline inflation exceeding core inflation in coming months, with base effects helping make this a reality At 1.6% YoY, nondiscretionary inflation was half a percentage point higher in January than discretionary inflation; though both sat at 2.5% in December, short-term household inflation expectations rose to 3% in January which exceeds the 2.7% print for long-term expectations What does the word 'transient' conjure? If you said 'hobo,' you're likely not in the Robinhood demographic. It's OK. We're not either. As for that hobo, what a romantic idea. Ride the rails! See the country! The term for a migrant worker or homeless vagabond originated in the United States around 1890. The end of the Civil War saw many veterans hopping freight trains home and other men riding the rails west in search of employment and a fresh start. The reality, as you can deduce, was anything but quixotic. Travelers were poor, hungry, and faced hostility from train crews and railroad security staff known as 'bulls.' Hopping on and off moving trains was also a good way to break a limb or worse. Getting trapped between cars was commonplace. And in bad weather, it was entirely possible to freeze to death. Perhaps we should move on to the other "transient," the one preferred by Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell, the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve. In his most recent post-FOMC presser, he made it crystal clear to Wall Street Journal reporter Michael Derby that the Fed sees inflation transience in two ways. Our edits to the original transcript below do not take away from the overarching point (bolding ours): DERBY: If there is a near term rise in inflation related to the recovery, how will you determine, whether or not, it's something that's temporary or more enduring? POWELL: On inflation, there are a couple of things that are worth mentioning. One is that we measure inflation on a trailing 12-month basis, and as we lap the very low inflation readings of March and April of last year, we'll see measured 12-month inflation move up a few tenths. This is called base effects. And that's a transient thing that we think will pass. There's also the possibility that as the economy fully reopens, there'll be a burst of spending because people will be enthusiastic that the pandemic is over, and that could also create some upward pressure on inflation. Now, again, we would see that as something likely to be transient and not to be very large. So, the way we would react is we're going to be patient. Expect us to wait and see and not react if we see small and what we would view as very likely to be transient effects on inflation. A different story for a different day is how swiftly Powell's narrative will change if equity or credit markets buckle under the weight of a rise in borrowing costs in reaction to transience. For the time being, the Fed can be expected to keep short rates anchored with the aim of maintaining a steep yield curve. Given today's decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, the market is taking Powell for his word. To corroborate, we decided to see whether transience is priced into U.S. inflation curves by examining breakeven (BE) inflation - the difference between nominal and real yields - at the tenors of two, five, ten and thirty years. As of yesterday's close, the 2/5/10/30 BE curve read like this: 2.53%, 2.33%, 2.19% and 2.14%. This curve construction meant the six inflation spreads - 2s5s, 2s10s, 2s30s, 5s10s, 5s30s and 10s30s - were simultaneously inverted. That's extraordinary. In month-end data since January 2005, that's never happened. It's clear rates traders expect a transient bulge in two-year inflation expectations that fades. It's critical to distinguish how differently investors and households perceive transient inflation. Investors have been conditioned to follow the spread between headline and core CPI (blue line). Core excludes the volatile food and energy components affected by supply shocks and natural disasters and is central bankers' conventional guide for the underlying inflation trend. Past inversions in the core-headline inflation spread have tended to coincide with the same development for the 2s5s BE curve (yellow line). Note that the relationship between the two tightened during the COVID-19 recession. February's inverted 2s5s curve points to headline inflation (1.4% year-over-year in January) exceeding core inflation (also 1.4% in January) in coming months. The simple math of base effects, especially in energy prices, will make this a reality. Households never exclude food and energy in their budgets. The oscillation between discretionary "wants" inflation and nondiscretionary "needs" inflation (purple line) has tracked households' short-term (one-year) versus long-term (five-year) inflation expectations spread (green line) well over time. Needs inflation include goods and services in a typical household budget. When needs cost more than wants, the household inflation curve inverts further. In January, nondiscretionary inflation (1.6%) was half a percent higher than discretionary inflation (1.1%), and short-term household inflation expectations (3.0% from 2.5% in December) rose above long-term inflation expectations (2.7% in January from prior 2.5%). The rub is that even an astute hobo knows that both investors and households are drinking a tall glass of Powell's "transient juice." Powell has set the bar high for tantrum risk. As far as he is concerned, the transient route has been the road most traveled for the last 40 years. While past performance is no guarantee of future returns, he's banking on precedent holding such that he can continue dismissing any talk of a taper to say nothing of rate hikes. Once we get past March and April's "easy" comparisons, the resultant asymmetry leaves Wall Street and Main Street open to upside inflation surprises. |