I am leaving early as I will be traveling to a business meeting that will take place early tomorrow morning.

Thanks for reading my Diary today. I hope it assisted you in your trading and investment decisions.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

I wonder what percentage of the traders trading stocks like Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) have any idea what those companies do? 

Never mind. 

(Tuesday morning 2/9/21 comments appear at the bottom)

Apparently, the bulls refused to go down without a fight. Throughout much of the morning it began to look like the short term seasonal pattern predicting a topping or pause was effective making yesterday's actions look like it may have been the crest of the pause, but they started in again with the small caps and the Russell came roaring out of the box after some early uncertainty and help lead the Dow and NASDQ back into plus territory.

The bulls are still in control, still fighting a bit of a battle here. Will wait to see how they close, if they rollover and close lower that will make some traders believe that we are into that seasonal short-term topping pattern. Don't know how much of a pullback it would be. But for now, the bulls aren't giving up, keep your eye on the tape.

Stay safe,

Arthur
__________

Tuesday's morning comments

If you thought that Tom Brady had a terrific performance in this year's Super Bowl, he had nothing on the equity bulls and their performance over the last six trading sessions and, they certainly finished it up well yesterday.

We had a quadruple record breaking session with four of the key major averages closing at record highs. The Russell with the small cap and Main Street America involvement roared ahead where most of the averages were.

The rally was reasonably broad. The breadth was terrific, not 8 to 1 as you might see in a buying climax but certainly 2 to 2 ½ to 1. And, on the back of so many rally sessions, it gets your attention and, gets a great deal of credibility.

The financial press was busy talking about Tesla, Bitcoin and Eli Musk and what did that mean but the stock market was busy concentrating on a very accommodative Fed, a new treasury secretary doubling down on go big on stimulus and the increasing rumors from Washington that the President get his package, if not the entire 1.9 trillion, certainly about 1.5 according to the latest rumors.

The leadership in the market was interesting to say the least. Energy was far and away the main leader as the oil price firmed and we are now approaching some high levels that we last saw last year at this time. Is that coincident or what? But the financials were also quite strong, helped in no small part by the steepening of the yield curve and, the inching up in yields overall with the ten-year threatening to perhaps make a run 1.25%, which can be a psychologically important level.

But, as I say, it was across the board, we got help from all our old friends, including the techs also. It had the vast majority of sectors moving forward. As we noted in yesterday's comments, which you can see reprinted below, the short-term seasonal pattern suggests that the early part of this week might see a topping or a pause. I'm not sure whether we may have seen that yesterday.

Certainly, look carefully at today's action and, any change in the technicals to see if the seasonal pattern begins to assert itself. Many folks who saw the recent short squeeze pullback in the general market as a possibility of a somewhat extended pullback, maybe up to 10%, now apparently abandoned that call and, think that brief pullback may have been it.

I am not sure we are willing to join that group completely. But, as I say, it has been an impressive performance and, yesterday's action only served to underscore it.

Overnight, there is little in the news that appears to be influencing markets. As we had suggested a few days back with the Lunar New Year coming and, some key meetings in China looming, it does look like The People's Bank of China is draining a slight bit of liquidity but it does not appear to be affecting their equity market and, certainly does not spill over into ours.

The impeachment begins today and, while it may draw much of the media attention, it is unlucky that it will have a market impact unless there is some major surprise that is unseen.

So, for now, with market a bit overbought and sentiment still running at high levels, we will step back a bit and see if the chance of a seasonal pattern pause early in the week might have happened in a solid but unspectacular close yesterday.

At any rate, the bulls still have the momentum and are in charge of the game but even they may tire for a little bit. But so, what happens.

My friend, Arch Crawford, sent out a bulletin to be very watchful of February 11th, which, he believes could contain a large astro signal that could be important to the market. What exactly that could mean to the markets, I am not sure. Will let you know when and if I get details.

At any rate stay safe.

Arthur

My pal Andrew Left goes on the offensive:

* The unfolding of recent events has created an abundance of short selling opportunities

"It's easy to grin

When your ship comes in

And you've got the stock market beat.

But the man worthwhile,

Is the man who can smile,

When his shorts are too tight in the seat."

- Judge Smails,Caddyshack

Bull Markets emerge from adversity and bad news, while bear markets are borne out of prosperity and good news. 

So it is with investing methodologies and styles. 

To wit, I can't remember when short selling was such a target as today. 

And I can't remember - given the market's structural profile and economic/profit uncertainties - when the opportunities to short have been so attractive. 

It is my view to be greedy when others are fearful (of the short side) especially with the apparent distortion between current share price levels and my calculation of "fair market value." 

Frankly, when hedge hoggers duck for cover, and terminate their short research, for fear of their own safety - the green light to go red is shining as brilliantly as I can recall. 

With a great deal of objection from the "peanut gallery", I went all in long in March, 2020 and I have gone all in short in February, 2021, with an equal amount of Bronx cheers today.

The average yield on publicly held junk bonds is now under 4%.

CCC rated bonds are under a 7% yield.

In a global economy that is so fragile that it needs endless monetary and fiscal largesse - this is insane.

Moreover, a lot of companies are staying alive due to ridiculously low interest rates and by cutting prices.

This is a dangerous dynamic.

Add on the general problem in credit being at record high duration levels - so the rise in long term interest rates could have an outsized impact.

I have been shorting Facebook FB . 

Here is Ed Ponsi's "Scheme" technical viewpoint on the name. 

From Charlie on inflation:

Another reason why I value STOW's comments (irregularly displayed in our Comments Section): He owns (RIOT) .

From two weeks ago: 

Jan 29, 2021 ' 06:18 PM EST DOUG KASS

This Is Why He Is The Smartest Trader in the World

* He shoots, he scores - with NVAX (+65% or +$87/share) today

Several subscribers have expressed disinterest and even snarkiness in The Smartest Trader in the World's positions -- others like to see his book on almost a daily basis.

I posted this update on the the Smartest Trader in our Comments Section yesterday which again cited his long position in Novovax (NVAX) , which vaulted 65% higher today -- much like his amazing score in Moderna (MRNA) over the last two years:

dougie kassKalyan kumara day ago

1. Just called Smartest Trader in the World for you.
He Is Very light (by his standards).
Buying more gold futures! (currently represents about 30% of his trading portfolio - was almost 50% at the peak)
25% short position in S&P and Nasdaq futures
Only 20% long stocks - Micron, Amazon (5%), still in NVAX, long OXY
Long ETHE, a cannabis, RIOT (bought back small today)
Still long VXX

2. Will do a new "Levels" on Monday.
Dougie

From my pal Brian Wesbury (talking my book):

Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an "inflation-complacency" that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.

When the Fed boosted the Monetary Base by more than $3 trillion dollars during Quantitative Easing 1, 2 & 3, and the federal budget moved to a huge deficit, gold and silver commercials proliferated. So did predictions of a collapsing dollar.

But inflation never came. Since the end of the 2008-09 financial panic, the Consumer Price Index has increased by an average of just 1.7% per year, falling short of the Fed's (conjectural) 2% target. So, what happened?

The answer: Boosting the monetary base is not the same as boosting the amount of money circulating in the economy. Milton Friedman taught us to watch the M2 measure of the money supply.

During the first period of QE, from 2008 to 2016, the Fed bought trillions of dollars of bonds, but also increased bank regulation and capital requirements. As a result, banks ended up holding excess reserves and the money supply remained calm, with M2 growing, on average, about 6% per year, similar to the growth rate in the 1990s.

During the 2020 COVID-induced round of Fed money printing, instead of using QE to put reserves in the banking system, the Fed financed government programs to fund loans to businesses and direct payments to individuals. As a result, M2 has grown 26.3% in the past year, the fastest annual growth we can find in US history, and roughly double the pace of M2 growth the US experienced during the 1970s.

According to those who believe in Modern Monetary Theory - which isn't modern, and is just vaguely a theory - the US can increase real output enough to absorb it. In other words, they say that while inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods" - they expect the output of goods to increase enough to keep inflation low.

We find this impossible to believe. In fact, we think many are living in denial. Inflation is already on the rise. In the past six months, the Consumer Price Index is up 3.6% at an annual rate and if it rises a modest 0.2% per month between January and May, it will be up 3.4% over 12 months. Part of this is because COVID shutdowns led to weak inflation in early 2020, but we expect inflation to move higher in 2021.

But, in addition to M2 growth, incomes and savings have increased, while production has not. Demand is exceeding supply. All personal income combined - wages & salaries, employee benefits, small business income, rents, interest, dividends, and transfer payments - was up 6.3% in 2020 versus 2019. Total after-tax income was up 7.2% in 2020, the most for any year since 2000.

Combined, Americans saved about $2.9 trillion in 2020, more than doubling the previous record high of $1.2 trillion in 2018. As of the third quarter of 2020, the amount Americans held in checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and money market funds was up $2.8 trillion from the year prior. Add another $1.9 trillion in federal government stimulus spending (borrowing from the future, to spend today) and the US is awash in cash, much of which is funded by Washington's money printing.

Unfortunately, in spite of a strong recovery in output, industrial production is 3.3% below pre-COVID levels, while real GDP is 2.5% below. In other words, demand is OK, it's supply that's still hurting - a perfect recipe for inflation.

We can see the impact of this affecting markets. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen from roughly 0.6% in May 2020 to 1.2% today. The gap between the yield on the normal 10-year Treasury Note and the inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury Note suggests investors expect an annual average increase of 2.2% in the consumer price index (CPI) in the next ten years, and those expectations are rising.

Bitcoin, while we doubt it will ever be real money, hit a record high today reflecting fears of lost dollar purchasing power. Commodity prices continue to surge.

All this money printing threatens to eventually create a sugar high in equities. We aren't there yet, but markets are floating on a sea of new money. In fact, it's more like a tsunami! Inflation hedges (real estate, commodities, materials companies) will do well. Traditional fixed income (long-term bonds) is at risk. The return of inflation because of misguided policy choices is a very real threat to the long-term health of the US economy.

richfish823

I have my Pizza makers son!

Yesterday I was having lunch at one of my favorite North Jersey spots that is located less than 2 miles from the Tony Soprano house. I asked Charlie the "Pizza Guy" how is 3 kids were doing. Charlie said his oldest daughter is completing her degree in nursing, his youngest daughter just started college and his son who has been trying to find his way is now day trading.

While Charlie was twirling some dough he said, "Richie, if one of these Wall St firms gave Junior a shot, they would not be disappointed, he is fuc*ing killing it."

Junior is a recent high school grad who has no plans to attend to college and lives in Charlie's basement.

A suite of strong tweets from Danielle DiMartino Booth:

* Yesterday afternoon I had a conversation with my gardener's son

The story took place in 1929 when Joe Kennedy, Sr., President John F Kennedy's father, claimed that he knew it was time to get out of the stock market when he got investment tips from a shoeshine boy.

On that moment Joe Kennedy had the intuition that we were at the end of the bull market and subsequently he decided to short the market and became a multi-millionaire !

Ever since, the shoeshine boy has been the metaphor for "time to get out"; for the end of the mania phase in which everyone, even the shoeshine boy, wants in.

Monday afternoon I had a conversation with my gardener's son, let's call him Steve. 

Steve works for his dad's landscaping company - but, guess what? 

He trades stocks every day in his Robinhood account - even while placing sod! 

He gave me a list of his portfolio of stocks - that trade between three cents and four dollars. 

Several have doubled in the last few days. 

Names not disclosed to protect the innocent. Plus, Steve rattled them off so fast I couldn't keep track! 

* The teutonic shift from active to passive investing is an underappreciated reason for the recent market melt up

* Passive investing has resulted in a massive buyerthat is materially insensitive to price and indifferent towards fundamental analysis

* Passive inflows are "stickier" than active inflows - this helps to reinforce the recent virtuous market cycle and explains the steady surge in prices

* Passive investing, when accompanied by a period of constant product inflows,  reduces the markets' "float" and supply of equities

* Lowered floats, and a reduced supply of equities, combined with unprecedented liquidity-driven demand have been a tasty cocktail that has taken stocks higher

* Where and when it stops, nobody knows - but watch flows

* In today's opener I outline other "unusual," cyclical and secularmarket drivers that have reinforced the near vertical move in stocks from the March lows...

The "rip your face rally" and "mother of all shorts" - since March 2020 - has recently gained steam, taking valuations to levels that would have been unheard of six months ago and to levels that have previously not been seen in history. 

Some, like myself, see the current level of the Indices as being at the widest premium to "fair market value" in several years.

While I and a few others have been worried by what we see as a widening in the relationship between elevated financial asset prices and worrisome prospective conditions for the real economy, this morning I wanted to delve deeper into one of the more important reasons for record highs in the U.S. stock market and, even more importantly, the persistency of the climb in stocks.  

The Increased Dominance Of Passive Investing Has Contributed To A Virtuous Cycle By Reducing The Market's Float

Most have concluded that the market rise has been the direct byproduct of a combination of the enormous monetary liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and the fiscal stimulation provided by our political leaders. 

To be sure, these factors have buoyed the demand feature for equities -- but not enough discussion surrounds the "diminishing" supply of equities. 

In that vein and in a very practical sense, the teutonic shift from active to passive investing has been among the most important contributors to a reduced float of available equities. 

The two key features of the passive investing movement have been the proliferation of quantitative products and strategies, that worship at the altar of price momentum, as well as the continued and more heated popularity of exchange-traded funds.  

The dominance of passive over active investing has has transformed our markets to a degree that is being under appreciated. 

Flows into passive products and strategies are different than flows into active products and strategies - in that they are "stickier." ETF buyers (including pension plans, etc.) are less market sensitive and less likely to get triggered by "fundamentals." This helps to explain the melt up, and the frustrating absence of relationship between share prices and the real economy, as, in essence, for extended periods of time the market's float is diminished by the secular shift from active to passive investing.  

These observations help to explain the self reinforcing and virtual cycle in exchange traded funds (like (ARKK) ). Indeed, the chart of another ETF --  the Russell Index below -- has now gone parabolic as machines and not active investors are likely buying the small cap Index:

Of course, flows work both ways as we learned in March, 2020.  But it appears to take a lot more to trigger an exit (outflows) as an entrance (inflows) is a more steady state.  

Some Other Important Contributing Factors To The Market's Bold And Consistent Rise

Besides the dominance of passive investing, other factors have contributed to the market's rise - adding a cherry on top of the effect of the virtuous passive investing cycle: 

* The marked diminution in the number of listed company equities over the last 20 years. We all know the statistics. Twenty years ago there were over 7,000 non ETF companies listed on the exchanges - today the number has halved to about 3500 stocks.   

* More aggressive share buy backs for the remaining listed securities. Of the remaining 3500 listed companies, nearly one quarter of the shares outstanding have been retired in corporate buybacks. 

* A new asset buyer - in Robinhood and other retail players. In part because of $600 checks of assistance, cheap (and plentiful) margin debt and on the absence of commissions -- speculative activity on the part of the retail community has multiplied geometrically. Technological change and scientific advances have attracted the new retail cabal of traders. So has the emergence of digital currencies and blind check companies -- seen by many as having almost limitless upside. As we learned yesterday with Tesla's (TSLA) investment in bitcoin, crypto currencies are the new "buyback".  And so have heavily shorted stocks -- like GameStop (GME) -- have attracted these "playas" who seem to increasingly see stock trading as a replacement for sports betting.  Cue Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton): 

"I am not throwin' away my shot
I am not throwin' away my shot
Hey yo, I'm just like my country
I'm young, scrappy and hungry
And I'm not throwin' away my shot"

Bottom Line

BURR:
How does the bastard, orphan, son of a whore
Go on and on
Grow into more of a phenomenon?
Watch this obnoxious, arrogant, loudmouth bother
Be seated at the right hand of the father
Washington hires Hamilton right on sight
But Hamilton still wants to fight, not write
Now Hamilton's skill with a quill is undeniable
But what do we have in common? We're
Reliable with the

ALL MEN:
Ladies!

BURR:
There are so many to deflower!

- Hamilton, A Winter's Ball

Passive investing has essentially produced a massive and "sticky" buyer that appears to be almost completely insensitive to price and indifferent towards fundamental analysis.  

The dominance of passive over active has reduced the markets' float.  

In this "Winter's Ball" we have seen all-time market highs as the outgrowth of the aforementioned reduced supply combined with the unprecedented liquidity driven demand for stocks.  

Of course it is easier to explain why the market is melting up - it is far harder to explain when a change in market behavior (and flows) will occur.   

We must keep a bead on those flows - as there is an inevitability that they will turn in a sutherly direction.  

We just don't know why and when. 

For as Grandma Koufax used to say, "Dougie, there is a reason why they call it unleavened bread  - it doesn't rise to the sky."   

"I am going to write a good Diary on Real Money Pro today... and I am going to help people. Because I am good enough, I am smart enough and doggone it, people like me."

-- Daily Affirmations With Dougie Kass

Today's Affirmations is about victims and beneficiaries.

We might begin to consider the imbalance between the victims and the beneficiaries from such extraordinary times.

In World War II, there were huge beneficiaries (makers of uniforms, tents, jeeps, etc.) and because of this an EXCESS PROFITS TAX was added to balance things out.

Nothing currently exists. The beneficiaries of COVID-19 are numerous (Amazon (AMZN) , Netflix (NFLX) , Peloton (PTON) , etc) and their stocks have soared. Yet, if you look at the accumulated debt taken on over the last year (in chart below), none of these companies are being asked to help pay for the situation which has caused an enormous and extraordinary benefit for them, while all the costs become the enormous debt being created which will burden society broadly for years to come.

Here is what I wrote yesterday:

Feb 08, 2021 ' 02:30 PM EST DOUG KASS

The Odds of a Hard Economic Landing in the U.S. by 2023 Is Growing

* A boom cycle may be on tap for the second half of 2021 as unprecedented stimulus (25% of GDP!!!) leads to higher interest rates, inflation and better growth

* There were mild recessions following the Korean and Vietnam wars - but the scale of the military expenditures during those times were only between 2%-4% of GDP

* But that boom will likely be short lived as the drying up of fiscal stimulus will likely lead to a bust within two years

* Even excessive monetary expansion may not save the US. economy as it is taking more and more liquidity to produce a unit of (GDP) production

* Bookmark this post!

Though this post is short and to the point, the broader consequences for the economy and for the stock market are great.

The anticipated cumulative injection of fiscal stimulus (including the proposed $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus package and the previous $2.2 trillion and $0.9 trillion packages) will total $5 trillion over the last 12 months. This represents almost 25% of the anticipated GDP of $21 trillion.

As former Alliance Bernstein economist, Joe Carson, mentioned over the weekend - with the exception of World War II there has been nothing like this in history. Stimulus during World War I, in the Great Depression, and in the Great Decession of 2008-2009 didn't come close to the policy initiatives in reaction to Covid-19 - even though those periods had deeply depressed private sector activity. Today we are experiencing a rebounding manufacturing economy led by housing activity and higher home prices.

This chart demonstrates how large the recent stimulus has been in an historic context:

At the same time the Federal Reserve's policy remains extremely aggressive and will be "as far as they eyes can see" - leading to very hot real estate markets around the country, particularly in wealthy communities.

Bottom Line

To me, there is only one inescapable economic conclusion - inflation and interest rates are heading higher as better economic growth in the last half of 2021 is delivered by the unprecedented stimulus.

Unfortunately the stimulus is in the form of mostly transfer payments and not in expansion of productivity or capacity.

As I see it, the economic boom will be a sugar-based high and there is an almost inevitable bust cycle emerging by or in 2023 when the heady fiscal stimulus ends.

Today's record stock prices belie a likely hard economic landing that may lie ahead.

----

I am not a licensed therapist, though.

"I deserve good things. I refuse to beat myself up. I am an attractive person. I am fun to be with."

Danielle DiMartino Booth gauges the recovery:

• Since October, new filers for Regular State and PUA jobless claims have run at roughly one million per week, more than five times the pre-COVID average; compared to the last crisis, worker labor income fell to -11.4% YoY last April, more than twice the trough of the GFC
• Manager labor income rose 1.9% YoY in January, the largest annual gain since last March, and pushed income for the top 20% into expansion; Worker labor income, on the other hand, remains in recovery mode, at -0.8% YoY below February 2020 pre-pandemic levels
• Credit card borrowing at commercial banks fell following both rounds of stimulus checks, as some were likely used to pay down debt; though this will give dry powder in reserve to some consumers, pent-up demand is likeliest to be in services among the price-agnostic top 20%

The millions of viewers that watched Sunday's Super Bowl LV broadcast and paid attention to the commercials know that four Maya Rudolphs are better than one. The Saturday Night Live alum was pitching Klarna, a shopping app that let's you buy now and pay later. The company has partnered with global retailers to bring buyers and sellers together by offering a more affordable shopping option. The app allows consumers to enjoy flexible payment options anywhere online. The four Mayas signified the four smaller payments for your purchase. The cost is split so that you pay one-quarter at checkout and one-quarter every two weeks until you're done. There is no interest and more time to pay. Concerned about your credit score? No worries. Klarna runs a soft credit check that won't affect where you are on the FICO scale. They just want to know if you can pay on time.

Full disclosure: we have no interest in Klarna. However, Super Bowl commercials are a sign of the times. At present, many Americans could use an app-driven world's answer to the layaway programs of yesteryear. The jobless claims data paint a case in point.

The low-hanging fruit of the U.S. unemployment recovery was picked through September 2020 during the economy's reopening phase following the spring's involuntary shutdown. But since October, the number of new filers for initial unemployment claims through both gateways - Regular State and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA is for temps and gig workers who wouldn't qualify otherwise) - has run near or slightly above a one million weekly pace, more than five times greater than before the COVID-19 shock mushroomed in March 2020.

To that end, workers on private U.S. nonfarm payrolls experienced a significantly larger income shock during the 2020 COVID recession than during the Great Recession of 2007-09. Worker labor income, the product of jobs times average weekly hours times average hourly wages for the bottom 80% of the income distribution, collapsed in April, posting a -11.4% year-over-year decline, more than twice the trough of the last cycle. On the other hand, manager labor income that covers the top 20% of earners registered a much shallower annual drop through April of -3.7%.

The pandemic response has been quick and large to support the harder hit workers. Stimulus injections have stayed ahead of the shock. Two rounds of stimulus checks have gone out to the masses, one in the spring and one in the winter. The right chart illustrates the cash flow bulge in April and May from a line item in the Personal Income report called Other Government Social Benefits (orange bars), a subset of the broader Transfer Payments metric. It will be a few more weeks before we can observe the surge in the January data; the report is released at every month's end.

There's no way to know exactly how every dollar of the handouts were utilized. However, the two down legs in credit card borrowing at commercial banks (purple line) are not likely coincidental. Some of the households that received the emergency funds used them to pay down credit card debt. With balances having been reduced, this helped free up a key discretionary smoothing mechanism for future spending power.

From the standpoint of credit cards only, household balance sheets are on a better footing to fund a spending recovery with dry powder in reserve. A sustainable improvement in income would induce the confidence to lean on plastic anew. Evidence to that effect is beginning to emerge.

Manager labor income expanded at a 1.9% year-over-year rate in January (light blue line), the largest annual gain since March 2020. The monthly advance pushed income for the top 20% out of the recovery phase and into the expansion phase. January's level stood 1.2% above the February 2020 pre-COVID month. Worker labor income, on the other hand, remained in recovery mode. In January, income for the bottom 80% stood even with the prior year's reading (red line) and remained -0.8% below pre-pandemic levels.

Optically, progress is being made against lost income. These labor income figures from the payroll survey are source data for wages and salaries in the official personal income statistics. The bullish results should add to optimism for the consumer spending recovery that is central to the U.S. macro outlook. However, it's well documented that earners up the income stack have a lower propensity to spend than those down a few rungs. That just means we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

So where will consumer pent-up demand occur? In services among those with the savings (i.e., top 20%). It's important to note that the manager cohort with the wherewithal to spend will be fairly price agnostic and willing to pay up for the prices the service sector survivors are/will be charging. Call this another iteration of the K-shaped recovery. But this time it will manifest in luxurious vacations, not overpriced SUVs and swimming pools. To that end at the inn, 55% of hotel stays are accounted for by the top 20%.

No interest options aside, this will mute retail sales data as the central guide for the consumer spending narrative. It also makes soft data on buying conditions and buying plans for autos, homes and major appliances less informative as forward guides. Alternative travel data series will be closely watched as gauges for the next phase of recovery as vaccine rollout overtakes case counts.