I am prepping for the after the close EPS barrage.

Thanks for reading.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

Sir Arthur's midday musings on GameStop (GME) , AMC (AMC) , Amazon (AMZN) , Alphabet (GOOGL) .

Mid-day update 2/2/21

It strongly appears that the short squeeze group is in vast disarray. GameStop and AMC are both under pressure and silver which some of them have chosen as a potential new target is also easing back. Traders think a psychological spot on GameStop maybe down around the 70 level. But if it sells below that, then the game is completely over. We will see who bails out at the last minute.

The relationship between the short squeeze and the fear that it would spill over through the hedge funds into another forced liquidation of the market is now obvious. The Dow is up between 500 and 600 points and the bulls are completely in charge. I think only a major reversal in the short squeeze situation could shake things up from here as might some geopolitical news.

So, cross your fingers. It looks like we are back in the saddle again.

Stay warm and stay safe.

- Arthur

******************************** 

Tuesday morning 2/2/21

Over the years, I have been lucky enough to have more than a few markets follow the scenarios that I have laid out for them. But, rarely, has one followed so accurately and minutely what was going on.

We had laid out the fact that the short squeeze in GameStop and, the like stock had been the dominate factor in the market, causing people to sell other instruments to raise capital to offset the pressure of the short squeeze on various institutions.

We noted that over the weekend, the so-called Reddit rebellion of the small guys had split into a new group, which had begun to sponsor the buying of silver and silver miners away from the highly shorted stocks that they were concentrating in.

The divergence took away some of the buying pressure in many of the short squeeze stocks, most particularly, GameStop and, that stock fell sharply.

So, the reduced fear of the short squeeze intensifying and, raising the pressure for more selling to offset the capital needs that the short squeeze was bringing, allowed people to buy back some of the winners that they were forced to sell in anticipation of those capital requirements.

Among groups that had been under imminent pressure in the capital raising effort, were high cap tech stocks, which clearly were Monday's winners. We also had several of those stocks in Nasdaq such as Amazon and others that are coming up with earnings shortly so there may have been some anticipatory buying there.

Some were quick to point out that it was the first day of the new trading month and, therefore, it might be new money for the new month coming in from the sidelines and, that certainly had a bit of an effect but, in my mind, it was crystal clear that this was relief from the short squeeze and, the ability to bounce back. Feelings among traders were that we may be on the verge of breaking the short squeeze.

The selloff in GameStop was rather dramatic and, we will see if downward pressure continues, if they continue to be diverted, would things like silver thereby take some of the buying pressure in the short squeeze away.

There was also some benefit for hopes of a compromise on the Covid stimulus package. The President was to meet with ten Republican Senators. The President's package is 1.9 billion and, the Republican offering was substantially less, around 600 million. But the hopes were that if there was to be a compromise at all, it might be somewhere in the middle and, if moved quickly, that could further stimulate the economy.

So, it was a terrific day for the bulls. New day for a new month. The breadth was terrific. The advances were far dominate and, now we have to see if they can continue this momentum and keep moving things along.

That brings us to this morning.

Overnight, there were some signs of some early weakness in the averages. The futures were trading off, I think, in response to some more Covid concerns in Europe and elsewhere but by 4:00 a.m., they had swung very sharply to the upside, and, as dawn hits a snowy Manhattan, the Dow looks to be up about 250 points.

The Reddit crowd seems to have hurt itself more than it assumed by splitting up because overnight GameStop is weak again as are several other short squeeze candidates and, silver itself has begun to weaken. So, maybe, the short squeeze guys are licking their wounds and, leaving the crowd.

We will see how the markets react to earnings with the most talked about being Amazon and, the Google parent, Alphabet. Keep your eye on GameStop and see if they continue to move away from that. That will indicate the pressure on the overall market for the national margin call will continue to dissipate.

Traders will also keep an eye on Washington where the Republican Senators seemed to be optimistic about what was discussed at the meeting with the President. Yet, Schumer is said to be moving towards a budget reconciliation to "jam things through".

With the Senate being basically tied, even the budget reconciliation isn't a sure thing because if a Senator, heaven forbid, calls in sick or has to go in quarantine and cannot show up to vote, it will prevent the simple majority that they would get with the Vice President. Well we all will go Civics class pretty soon.

Bulls have the momentum. Cross your fingers and stay safe.

-- Arthur

I will be out of the office between 1-3 pm - at a business meeting related to my new hedge fund. 

On radio silence during that timeframe.

Dougie Kass @DougKass

@carlquintanilla Dick Costolo being interviewed on $GME and short selling is clueless. Short selling is no more a conspiracy than long buying is... no, wait.

GameStop (GME) breaks below $80. 

Hide the cocaine.

Over the years, I have been lucky enough to have more than a few markets follow the scenarios that I have laid out for them. But, rarely, has one followed so accurately and minutely what was going on.

We had laid out the fact that the short squeeze in GameStop and, the like stock had been the dominate factor in the market, causing people to sell other instruments to raise capital to offset the pressure of the short squeeze on various institutions.

We noted that over the weekend, the so-called Reddit rebellion of the small guys had split into a new group, which had begun to sponsor the buying of silver and silver miners away from the highly shorted stocks that they were concentrating in.

The divergence took away some of the buying pressure in many of the short squeeze stocks, most particularly, GameStop and, that stock fell sharply.

So, the reduced fear of the short squeeze intensifying and, raising the pressure for more selling to offset the capital needs that the short squeeze was bringing, allowed people to buy back some of the winners that they were forced to sell in anticipation of those capital requirements.

Among groups that had been under imminent pressure in the capital raising effort, were high cap tech stocks, which clearly were Monday's winners. We also had several of those stocks in Nasdaq such as Amazon and others that are coming up with earnings shortly so there may have been some anticipatory buying there.

Some were quick to point out that it was the first day of the new trading month and, therefore, it might be new money for the new month coming in from the sidelines and, that certainly had a bit of an effect but, in my mind, it was crystal clear that this was relief from the short squeeze and, the ability to bounce back. Feelings among traders were that we may be on the verge of breaking the short squeeze.

The selloff in GameStop was rather dramatic and, we will see if downward pressure continues, if they continue to be diverted, would things like silver thereby take some of the buying pressure in the short squeeze away.

There was also some benefit for hopes of a compromise on the Covid stimulus package. The President was to meet with ten Republican Senators. The President's package is 1.9 billion and, the Republican offering was substantially less, around 600 million. But the hopes were that if there was to be a compromise at all, it might be somewhere in the middle and, if moved quickly, that could further stimulate the economy.

So, it was a terrific day for the bulls. New day for a new month. The breadth was terrific. The advances were far dominate and, now we have to see if they can continue this momentum and keep moving things along.

That brings us to this morning.

Overnight, there were some signs of some early weakness in the averages. The futures were trading off, I think, in response to some more Covid concerns in Europe and elsewhere but by 4:00 a.m., they had swung very sharply to the upside, and, as dawn hits a snowy Manhattan, the Dow looks to be up about 250 points.

The Reddit crowd seems to have hurt itself more than it assumed by splitting up because overnight GameStop is weak again as are several other short squeeze candidates and, silver itself has begun to weaken. So, maybe, the short squeeze guys are licking their wounds and, leaving the crowd.

We will see how the markets react to earnings with the most talked about being Amazon and, the Google parent, Alphabet. Keep your eye on GameStop and see if they continue to move away from that. That will indicate the pressure on the overall market for the national margin call will continue to dissipate.

Traders will also keep an eye on Washington where the Republican Senators seemed to be optimistic about what was discussed at the meeting with the President. Yet, Schumer is said to be moving towards a budget reconciliation to "jam things through".

With the Senate being basically tied, even the budget reconciliation isn't a sure thing because if a Senator, heaven forbid, calls in sick or has to go in quarantine and cannot show up to vote, it will prevent the simple majority that they would get with the Vice President. Well we all will go Civics class pretty soon.

Bulls have the momentum. Cross your fingers and stay safe.

Arthur

Where are you?

* On silver's rise. 

* The case for a Twitter overhaul. 

* What do short sellers really do?

I recently moved to large-sized banks  - starting to work out!

I added further to Walmart (WMT) - now very large-sized.

Peter discusses yields and the addiction to QE this morning: 

So the bid ask spread between Republicans and Democrats is $600b and $1.9T, so assume $1T+ gets passed. According to a Covid-19 vaccine tracking model on Bloomberg, "more than 101 million doses have been given in 64 countries around the world. The pace of vaccinations continue to increase, with the latest average rate at roughly 4.25mm doses a day, according to data collected by Bloomberg." In the US, 32.8mm doses have been given, "most recently at an average rate of 1.34mm doses per day." Thus, while the initial rollout was bumpy, it is ramping up. The combination of what's to come in DC and the weekly improvements in the number of jabs, the 10 yr yield at 1.11% is at a 3 week high.

Listening to the slew of Fed members yesterday that spoke in some fashion, none are intent on skating to where the puck is going. But that is also their intent as we hear about 'letting the economy run hot.' That's code for they are afraid to taper and/or raise rates because when they do, that hot will turn cool rather quickly. As for their opinions on the recent market action, none seem to be making the connection between their own policy which is intended to lubricate market speculation and goose asset prices and the actual market speculation that has taken place that results in goosed asset prices. Again, the two recessions pre Covid resulted in a sharp drop in asset prices rather than an economic downturn resulting in a fall in prices. I am still expecting higher long term rates because the market will see where the puck is going well before the Fed.

A key aspect to the inflation story will be energy prices and the front month WTI contract is trading at a one yr high today at just below $55, up 2.5% after yesterday's 2.6% rally. I'm still bullish on energy prices, both crude and natural gas. Natural gas prices spiked 11.2% yesterday and are up 4.6% today to $3.0.

WTI front month

Natural Gas front month

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged as expected at essentially zero did instead add $100b of QE at a rate of $5b per month. This even as Governor Lowe said their economic recovery was "well under way and has been stronger than was earlier expected." Then why further distort the market and where is the connection between QE and faster economic growth? No central banker ANYWHERE has been able to answer that question but they are still relying on QE. And we have plenty of evidence over the past 10+ years of its use and the results. The results really just prove that it's a way for government spending to get monetized. That's it. Notwithstanding the surprise move, the Aussie 10 yr yield is little changed while the Aussie dollar is lower for a 3rd day by .3%. The ASX rallied by 1.5% but all markets in Asia were green after the US bounce.

Last week we saw upside surprises in the CPI figures from Germany and Spain. Today, France reported the same thing. CPI in January rose .8% y/o/y, above the estimate of up .5% and vs zero in December. This is even with a 5.9% drop in energy prices y/o/y which is on the cusp of reversing in coming months. Food prices rose 1% y/o/y as did manufactured goods. Services prices rose .9%. Bottom line, these numbers are still benign but over the past 3 months French CPI has risen .2%, .2% and .3% m/o/m. The deflation story is over. Inflation is coming, even in Europe led by the goods side and followed by services this summer when the vaccine is mass marketed. The 5 yr 5 yr euro inflation swap is up 1.4 bps in response to 1.35%, 1 bp from the highest level since May 2019. Yes, almost a 2 yr high in European inflation expectations. Shocking I know. The French 10 yr yield is higher by 2.2 bps to -.26%, the least negative since November 10th.

5 yr 5 yr Euro Inflation Swap

FRENCH 10 yr Oat yield



Putting together all the Eurozone GDP reports puts the Q4 number at down .7% q/o/q and by 5.1% y/o/y vs the estimate of down .9% and 5.3% respectively. The euro is down but sovereign bond yields are up across the board.

I just shorted more (SPY) at $380.58 and (QQQ) at $326.63.

dougie kass

I have been shorting a very speculative package of SPACs and other gewgaws. I weight these positions appropriately.
For a number of reasons I rarely disclose the volatile and speculative individual stocks (recent exceptions GME and AMC) - many are being recommended and are owned by other contributors who find them technically appealing. I genuinely hope they make a fortune but we have different approaches and I will likely be in them (on the short side) for a longer period of time than they will be long.

1. While respectful debate is value added -I have zero interest in getting into a pissing match with others who are buying price and not value. Not interested in such battles after 24 years writing my column.

2. I often take positions (long AND short) in very speculative, smaller cap stocks - but I have learned not to do it in my Diary as I really don't want to take on that responsibility. I have the scars on my back from previous ones.

3. Most of the specs that I am short in this volatile universe are hard if not impossible to borrow. (I have strong locate/borrowing relationships after forty years) So disclosing them, in many cases, is a theoretical exercise.

4. I am fundamentally based. It would take alot of work to do fundamental writeups on each of my spec shorts and since hard to borrows (#3) a waste of time

5. I will stick in the large cap universe in my Diary.

I hope you all understand.

Dougie

* Retail investors got many reasons why they cry away each lonely night
* Exploring the relationship between Robinhood and Citadel

"Ran into the Devil, babe
He loaned me twenty bills
I spent the night in Utah
In a cave up in the hills

Set out runnin' but I take my time
A friend of the Devil is a friend of mine
If I get home before daylight
I just might get some sleep tonight."

- The Grateful Dead, Friend of the Devil

In 2004 Citadel made the argument to the SEC that the practice of selling order flow should be illegal:

If you can't beat em join em I guess!   

Here is a link to an interesting writeup on the GameStop (GME) issue and the practice of selling of order flows.     

I have not even touched on Citadel's outsized market share in making Nasdaq markets. Its near monopoly position is yet another sign of a broken market.  

Tying It In A Bow

Just to tie it in a bow:  "In the first half of 2020, Citadel Securities trading operation, which is separate from Citadel's hedge fund business, generated $3.84 billion of revenue in just six months. Net income was $2.36 billion in the first six months of 2020."

Net income normally means after tax.  This would imply that Citadel is making an 80%+ EBIT margin in what in theory is a highly competitive business with tight spreads, and scale competitors that are also super smart.  It is akin to Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) both selling cloud services, but Amazon being able to do for one penny what it costs Microsoft 10 pennies to do.  Amazon is slightly better than Microsoft, but not 10x.   

Anyway, Citadel agreed with me in 2004 (see above) --  the whole thing is rife with problems and now it's much worse than 2004.  

Something is very fishy.  There is no free lunch.  In theory the selling of order flow was allowed to reduce friction and lower trading costs.  In practice, it makes "commissions" disappear, and apparently replaces it with crappy execution behind the scenes that puts more dollars in the pockets of certain of those handling the execution on said trades that the commission would have ever cost the person putting the order in.  

But back to my main point. "Free" trading should not exist either.  Besides it being a false notion, it turns the whole thing into sort of a mockery, and is rife with other issues. 

Here is a link with an explanation of some of the issues, I excerpted key sections. I think as usual the "in practice" has turned out much different than the "in theory" and the whole issue needs to be re-examined: 

*  Ironically, payment for order flow is a practice pioneered by Bernie Madoff - the same Madoff of Ponzi scheme notoriety. 

*  The market maker or exchange benefits from the additional share volume it handles, so it compensates brokerage firms for directing traffic. Investors, particularly retail investors, who often lack bargaining power, can possibly benefit from the competition to fill their order requests. However, as with any gray area, arrangements to steer the business in one direction invite improprieties, which can chip away at investor confidence in financial markets and their players. 

*  FIF notes that the 605/606 reports "do not provide the level of information that allows a retail investor to gauge how well a broker-dealer typically fills a retail order when compared to the 'national best bid or offer' (NBBO) at the time the order was received by the executing broker-dealer."  ME - HINT HINT $2.4 billion net income on $3.8 billion of revenue tells you all you need to know about execution.

*  Robinhood received the highest rate for equities. Repetto assumes that Robinhood's ability to charge higher PFOF is potentially reflected in the profitability of their order flow and that Robinhood receives a fixed rate per spread (vs. a fixed rate per share by the other brokers). Robinhood experienced the greatest quarter-over-quarter increase in PFOF in both equities and options of the four brokers detailed by Piper Sandler as their implied volumes increased the most as well. 

*  Robinhood has refused to disclose their trading statistics using the same metrics as the rest of the industry, but they offer a vague explanation in their support articles. 

*  For the retail investor, though, the problem with payment for order flow is that the brokerage might be routing orders to a particular market maker for their own benefit, and not in the investor's best interest. 

* 'Suits', Main Street vs. Wall Street, and the failure of regulation
* When the regulators do nothing aboutElon Musk '420' - how do they expect the folks on the chatboards to behave?
* Someone long or short should be focused on the company they take a position in - not who is on the other side of the trade

"You have no enemies, you say? Alas, my friend, the boast is poor. He who has mingled in the fray of duty that the brave endure, must have made foes. If you have none, small is the work that you have done. You've hit no traitor on the hip. You've dashed no cup from perjured lip. You've never turned the wrong to right. You've been a coward in the fight."

- Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one."

- Charles Mackay 

"In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.

- Charles Mackay

Maybe I am just an idiot, but per article I have appended below, why do people keep doing this to themselves? In an environment like this no less, where it should be obvious the rules of the game have completely gone out the window. Isn't there an old saying, you have to know how to pick your battles? Yup intellectually correct to be short heavily shorted stocks. Practically, one of the stupider things I could ever think of doing - unless you are a very disciplined investment pro. And even some sophisticated professional investors, like Melvin Capital, have lost all their discipline! 

Further thoughts: 

* This whole thing is positioned as Main Street versus Wall Street and the average working guy getting their revenge on the "suits". I think that is a silly construct as it is not one group versus the other and never has been for all practical purposes. Beyond that, don't kid yourself, although there are some really wealthy guys getting their faces ripped off, there are also a lot of really wealthy guys on the other side of this making a ton of money. There always are. If you think the Average Joe is making more money off of this than the rich guys, you are kidding yourself. 

* The larger issue is that the stock market plays an important role in the economy. It is meant to be a way to allocate capital in a reasonably efficient manner. When capital goes to the wrong places for dis-economic reasons, society in aggregate ends up poorer. The stock market is not meant to be a joke. 

* It is bad when hedge funds and/or mutual funds collude to run stocks, and it is bad when retail does it. Two wrongs do not make a right. Collusion, I believe, is also illegal. 

* When this type of activity leads to a blowup in the economy, and there is a bailout of some sort because of it, society also ends up poorer, despite the appearance of wealth creation. Post 2008 by traditional measurers, it would seem an enormous amount of wealth was created. But by any practical measure, many are now worse off than they were pre-2008. Sometimes GDP can be a very misleading stat 

Rich vs. Poor?

I was recently asked/told by a smart person that of course this is rich vs. poor. I can address that and a few other narratives: 

* In general, most of the money made is by the rich, including hedge funds, when stocks go up. Very few did well in 2008. This is also why every Wall Street strategist almost always has a price target on the market north of where it is trading and is waving poms poms, and the same for nearly every equity analyst for single stocks. The entirety of Wall Street is a sales machine for equities, or any tradeable asset for that matter. Money is made from trading volumes and assets under management. Look at the returns of hedge funds in up vs. down markets as well. Not even close, more money is made when stocks are going up. The "suits" are not trying to drive stocks down so they can buy them cheaper for themselves. Same reason the Fed comes in to bail out the market every time it starts going down. Nobody wants/allows equities or any asset to devalue. 

* Hedge funds in general lose massive amounts of money shorting stocks. The only reason to do it is as part of a strategy where one is running a levered book and using shorts to offset risk and dampen volatility. Short positions are almost always by far the smallest part of anyone's book. Frankly, most hedge funds stink at the short side of their book. Look at the breakdown of their returns over time long (+) vs. short (-). It is really just an excuse to sell a product that allows one to charge 2 and 20. Reality is most investors would be better off not paying these clowns 2 and 20 who stink at shorting and are often shorting an S&P ETF. Anyone else really has no business shorting stocks for the most part. Math and return on time favors being long stocks as a general rule of thumb. Anyway there are a few legends that are good at shorting stocks and find a way to add value over time doing it, but beyond that it is a money losing proposition for most. If short selling is such a good business, why are all the dedicated short sellers largely out of business? 

But even smart guys are selling this narrative now, for whatever reason. For some it is a way to generate PR for themselves and manipulate the masses to drive a frenzy in stocks they own. For others, it may also be for their own PR or political reasons. Here is an example of a theoretically smart guy piling on.

Shorting stocks puts companies out of business:

* Really? So someone shorting GameStop (GME) is what caused the invention of the internet and allowed for people to download video games as opposed to going to the store to buy them? Short selling does not put companies out of business. Change, incompetent management, bad capital structure, and fraud puts companies out of business. Stocks go where they go. A good short, 70% of the time, the stock goes from $40 to $25 or $30 and you take your profits and run for the hills and thank your lucky stars you didn't lose money. Short selling does not effect businesses or employment. In fact, an efficiently priced market will increase employment over time, because capital is going to where it is most productive.

Side note, there is far more BS on the long side of the market than the short side. It is not even close. I could write an essay on that. You are seeing it now. Further the shorts are on their own and swimming upstream, anyone long has been constantly aided by the Federal Government and Federal Reserve.

The Failure of Regulation

The failures of our regulatory bodies have recently grown ever more conspicuous.

So I will offer some suggestions - some of which will go over about as well as a fart in church.

It is still the same venal and feckless regulators that have done nothing about anything for about 30 years, including allowing computers to overrun the markets (see previous post), SPAC issuance with absurd terms, Elon Musk "420", and all sorts of other reckless behavior in the financial system. And the same Federal Reserve that feels the need to prop things up every time the market sells off by 10%, and is in the market buying junk debt via illegal in spirit SPVs in concert with the Treasury.

I will now commence my act of pissing into the wind - with several unpopular recommendations: 

* Shut down all commission free trading and ban the practice of order flow being sold off to anyone, especially a select few firms that have the capability of executing on it and adding to exaggerated moves and putting everyone else at risk, while profiting themselves. First of all seeing someone else's orders, and being able to execute on them, is the definition of insider trading, especially when it is a small group that is able to do this. Further, there needs to be friction (cost) to trading for everyone, just like there is for institutions. There needs to be a minimum cost to executing a trade (higher for riskier things like options and penny stocks). I would not allow an advertising driven model substitute for selling order flow. Make sure there is a cost to trading that is not trivial. Any brokerage has to make its living off of commission for actual trades paid by the customers making those trades. Cigarettes, a retail product, are regulated, heavily taxed, and there are real restrictions on the manufacturers ability to advertise and promote as well. Further, children under 18 are not allowed to buy them. Just like cigarettes, reckless commission free trading is also hazardous to the health of the financial system. 

* I am a HUGE free speech advocate. Like many, I am especially sensitive to free speech issues given what is going on in the world with restrictions being placed on a fair bit of fundamental liberties. However, what is going on in equity markets on these chatboards is clearly a form of manipulation and collusion. It is a different form of manipulation and collusion, but it still is manipulation and collusion. Simply ban all "threaded" conversations on any investment chatboard or anywhere on the internet where a stock is discussed. That means Instaface or places like Barstool Sports as well. People get to say whatever they want about anything, as long as they reasonably believe their statement is true. But the threaded part of these statements must be shut down. Somebody posts a comment on a specific equity, no replies are allowed. Cannot be weasly ways to get around it, like having a table of contents and then going to a stock like GME, and having a bunch of comments one under the other, that are effectively threaded without being threaded. Comments can be shut down. Barstool Sports even shut down the comments section in their own website at one point, as a reaction to vulgar things that were being said. You can have free speech, without that speech being all in one place that leads to a frenzy and the easy ability to collude and manipulate. Any internet post about an equity needs to be an independent entity, period. No replies, no frenzy of people in one place. I am not advocating willy nilly prosecuting people, or having the thought police put warning labels on clearly made up bullshit posts with fake information, and totally made up price targets. This stuff will all mostly get lost anyway if it is not as easy to find and isn't all in one place with a million eyeballs on it at once anyway. Not to mention, if Elon Musk who is highly visible can get away with his 420 thing with nothing more than a slap on the wrist, makes it a little tough to go after little Johnny in North Dakota. 

But back to my opening statement, when the regulators do nothing about Elon Musk 420, how do they expect the folks on chatboards to behave?

This morning I am delivering two openers. 

Unlike most days, it is less commentary about the markets and more of an editorial nature. 

I look forward to your response to both in our Comments Section.

280 million shares of (SLV) traded yesterday (second highest volume ever):

Danielle DiMartino Booth:

With that information in hand, even a groundhog would doubt China's strength. If China portrayed domestic weakness, the current run of statistics don't and won't show it, but instead point blame at the pandemic for slowing in certain sectors and a contraction in new export orders from the IHS Markit/Caixin survey, the first of its kind in six months. Blame weak global demand for China's problems, right?