Thanks for reading my Diary today - I hope it had value to you. 

Enjoy the evening. 

Be safe. 

There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their minds
Getting so much resistance from behind

It's time we stop
Hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look, what's going down?

- Buffalo Springfield, For What It's Worth

Technically this is the first time since the last EPS release that Walmart's   (WMT)  daily RSI is overbought. 

As mentioned I have reduced my WMT long investment today: 

Nov 16, 2020 ' 12:25 PM EST DOUG KASS

Reducing Walmart Ahead of Earnings

For three weeks I have been buying Walmart (WMT) on every dip.

However, reflecting a less attractive reward to risk I am now selling down my Walmart from very large-sized to medium-sized - ahead of the company's EPS report tomorrow.

I placed WMT on my "Best Ideas List' only three weeks ago at $137/share. The shares have hit a 52 week high this morning and are trading at almost $153/share.

Upside/downside is a dynamic concept and the +12% gain in less than a month has produced a less compelling ratio of reward to risk.

I continue to like this name but I am always mindful of the aforementioned ratio.

I feel the more explanation and transparency the better - and that's one of the reasons why I like our Comments Section:

HellRazor2379

While I don't disagree w/ SPX and QQQ short positions, better question is are you sticking with your SPY 354 and SPY 355 NOV 20 PUTS? I didn't participate, but did do the DEC PUTS; seems insane to try to be right on market move for 6 trading days, but maybe I'm missing the point. I prefer shorting the indices to reduce gross exposure vs. buying options since you have to be really right on timing esp when it's just 6 days.

dougie kass HellRazor2379

I bought the puts as a further hedge - and I was prepared to rip up the Nov Spy and QQQ puts.
I knew the risk as I noted.
It seems that might be the case.
Dougie 

raykap5 dougie kass

lets not count our chickens before hatched.

frdgrouper1 HellRazor2379

Made a comment to that effect Friday. The 354/355 Nov 20 spy puts were 5.40/5.75. They are now .96/1.10. A disaster. Theta too much let alone with an up market. he has been hot, however.

dougie kass frdgrouper1

Fish
I purchased both SPY and QQQ Nov 20 and Dec 18 puts.
The November SPY puts you referenced look like a tear up, potentially a zero. (risk accepted and not terribly surprised, but disappointed (!))
But I also own the Dec 18 Spys $354-$355 and the QQQ Nov 20 $390s and Dec 18 $385s I am certainly not giving up on any of them.
They were bought for a purpose... as protection.
Dougie

dougie kass frdgrouper1

To me not a disaster I was fully aware of the risk of short dated puts should the market continue higher.
I would like to have made money and not lost on them, but that was not the reason I purchased them.
Dougie

frdgrouper1 dougie kass

Understood. A disaster in terms of price decay. Stay hot! They are not yet over!

With my recent trades I am between medium to large-sized net short in exposure now. 

Remember, as the (SPY) and (QQQ) puts go, so goes my exposure. 

Today's market ramp REDUCED my exposure as the delta on my puts fell fast. 

But I have selectively sold down some longs and added to my Index shorts. 

I plan to get much more short if Mr. Market rises from here.

For three weeks I have been buying Walmart  (WMT) on every dip. 

However, reflecting a less attractive reward to risk I am now selling down my Walmart from very large-sized to medium-sized - ahead of the company's EPS report tomorrow. 

I placed WMT on my "Best Ideas List' only three weeks ago at $137/share. The shares have hit a 52 week high this morning and are trading at almost $153/share. 

Upside/downside is a dynamic concept and the +12% gain in less than a month has produced a less compelling ratio of reward to risk. 

I continue to like this name but I am always mindful of the aforementioned ratio.

Buyers live higher and sellers live lower:

"There she stood in the doorway
I heard the mission bell
And I was thinkin' to myself
'This could be heaven or this could be hell
Then she lit up a candle
And she showed me the way
There were voices down the corridor
I thought I heard them say..."

- The Eagles,Hotel California

I am taking small short rentals in (H) ($71.09) and (HLT) ($109.30).

* Added to my Index shorts, sold off some more Disney (DIS) .

* New 52 week high Walmart (WMT) .

* Banks are up by over 2%, (XLF) +1.7%

* Value winning - my two value ETFs -- (VTV) and (VBR)  -- are +1.2% and +2.1%, respectively - against S&P +0.7% and (QQQ) +0.4%.

* Offering some (GM) , (MS) and (GS) above the market.

* Dumb ass mistake selling ViacomCBS (VIAC) !

__________ 

Long DIS (small), WMT (large), SPY puts (large), QQQ puts (large), VBR (small), VTV (small), BAC (large), C (large), WFC (large), JPM (large), GS (small), MS (small), XLF (large), GM (small).

Short SPY, QQQ.

Rolf Thrane

I am gong to go long Amazon, Apple, Zoom, Netflix and TSLA. Just kidding. I mean how many vaccine rallies are we going to have? I noticed that Dougie wrote a vaccine will be available in Q1? I must have missed that memo. Who is saying that?

dougie kass Rolf Thrane

Moderna said 20 million doses available by year end.
Dougie

Rolf Thrane dougie kass

Oh - Ok - Not to be argumentative - butter that does not translate to there is a vaccine available in Q1 for most people. Maybe healthcare workers and nursing homes. And according to Trump - New York will never see a vaccine - not to get into politics. In the meantime the rest of us are doomed or relegated to a bunker. :-) But I am happy to see that I am not the only thinking this market is a little on the ridiculous side and willing to take the short bet.

dougie kass Rolf Thrane

Taken from Thomas C Comments Section post:

"By the end of the year, Moderna expects to have approximately 20 million doses of the vaccine ready to ship in the U.S., the company said. It said it remains on track to manufacture 500 million to 1 billion doses globally in 2021.

The company already has supply agreements in North America, the Middle East and in other regions of the world. It announced in August that it had reached a deal with the U.S. government to supply 100 million doses of its vaccine. The deal gives the federal government the option to purchase up to 400 million additional doses. The U.S. had already invested $955 million in Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine development, bringing its total investment up to $2.48 billion, the company said at the time."

Dougie

Apologies for lateness of comments this morning, having great technical difficulties...assume we will get a screwdriver that works.
__________

(Thursday's comments and update appear at the end.)

Overnight, futures got a major boost as the vaccine news from Moderna began to leak out. Once again, it appears to have a high efficacy rating of 90% or higher. But this vaccine can be stored at reasonably normal temperatures in a kitchen refrigerator or the like for up to 30 days, which makes transfer and shipping much easier. There are other features in the vaccine report, including some hint that it can be modified to treat or control, to some degree, the disease once it has begun. That can be a big deal. All this is only in the preliminary stage, but we will keep an eye on it. That is why as dawn hit New York, the Dow futures rallied 500 points or so. A level which could take them to 30,000 all things being equal.

Prior to the vaccine news the futures were looking a little bit better. That is because the weekend talk shows raised the possibility of a lame duck stimulus package and, several pointed to the President's recent tweets, which are somewhat modified. While still claiming the vote was rigged, there is a mild concessionary tone that the Biden team won, although, they "stole the election". The mere fact of saying they won hints we may get a traditional orderly transfer of power and, that helped put a bid under the markets.

As you may recall, traders have been concerned that they could not tell whether we were building a rectangular resistance band trading around the early September highs or consolidating and preparing for a breakout to brand new highs. This mornings action and some of the late action last week suggests that the bulls may have the ball and may be ready to run with it.

The key will be can they hold the early gains and build on them.

Stay safe.

Arthur

__________

As you can see from the midday update reprinted below, the market began seeing some internal challenges as afternoon trading commenced.

The Dow did close negatively but only marginally so. But this morning's futures action seems to confirm the traders early assumption. The fact that advances and declines were nearly equal would appear to underscore the indecisiveness of yesterday's action. That will raise certain technical points.

The Cocktail Napkin Chartist Association is wondering whether all of these moves, vaccine, etc., have done little more than return us to a crest of multiple tops based on the September 3rd highs. Certainly, the next few days will begin to give us the answer to that. It certainly does look like a bit of a rectangular test area.

Internals and amateur technicals aside, the market does appear sensitive to headlines and news developments. The overnight action in the futures and, its continuing follow-up this morning, seems to be a response to the rather sharp increase in Covid cases reported and, the increase in hospitalizations. We can see that the different sectors have begun to revert to earlier postures. Things like stay at home/work at home beginning to come back and, the post-vaccine celebration may well be over.

I was interested in how little follow-up there was to the Russian claim of a vaccine and, little commentary even in Europe, where one would have thought that might have brought some attention.

Interestingly, the Presidential election/transition question, with which the media pundits appear to be obsessed, has not been a major factor in market trading. As we noted yesterday, Pompeo's comments about the world is watching and everything will be done carefully appeared to mollify some of the early concerns of the market. But he seemed to throw a curve ball later when he talked about working toward a transition to a second Trump term. It raised a few eyebrows but was not a major factor in the market.

So, for today, we will watch the headlines. See if we get any help in the Covid mess and begin to allow the cocktail napkin chartists to make their case as to whether we are in a rectangular topping testing area or whether we are just gathering strength for an upside breakout on further good news.

Our friend, the always insightful, Peter Boockvar, points out that the latest Investors Intelligence polls indicate the psychology of investors is heavily bullish with bearish shrinking to levels sometime raise alarms. That would appear to add credibility to the amateur technicians thesis that we may be facing a rectangular top testing area. The next several days of trading may become very important.

Back on the political front, Republican leadership is reluctant to cast Trump aside since, amazingly, he received more popular votes than any other candidate in the history of the United States with the obvious exception of this year's vote for Joe Biden.

The huge turnout in Trump's behalf seems to cast strong doubt on the long-held thesis that he represented an ardent but small base. They realize that big a turnout will certainly aid in making him a factor over the next several years as he continues with his megaphone. It does not appear to be impacting the market either way.

So, let's look at the testing see if they work on the downside of the rectangle. Keep your cocktail napkin's handy and maybe have a pencil or two with an eraser.

Apparently Covid may be transmitted by Vampires since, apparently, curfews from 8:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. being issued around the country.

HOUSEKEEPING

THERE WILL BE NO NOTE ON FRIDAY. WONDER WOMAN ON SPECIAL MISSION. SO, WE WILL BE RADIO SILENT ALL DAY.

Stay Safe.

Have a good weekend!

Arthur

__________

Midday Update

Dow slipping to just below levels it traded before vaccine announcement on Monday morning. Should they drift lower and, perhaps break 29000, it could spooked certain of the technical traders, whom we warned you were already on nervous alert.

So, now it is all in the hands of the bulls, basically to try to defend 29000 and maybe to pull above 29200 and get back above the vaccine announcement levels.

The game is on the table.

Stay safe.

Arthur

The November NY manufacturing index, the 1st November industrial number seen, fell to 6.3 from 10.5 and that was about half the estimate of 13.5. New orders fell by 8.6 pts to 3.7 while backlogs went further negative to -11.9 from -6.6. Inventories remain below zero at -8.6 vs -14.6 in October and -3.6 in September. Employment rose 2.2 pts to 9.4 but the Workweek fell by 11.3 pts to 4.8. Prices paid rose to the highest level since January and those received more than doubled to 11.3 from 5.3 to the highest since February.

As for the outlook 6 months ahead, it rose a touch, by 1.1 pts m/o/m to 33.9 but it was 40.3 in September. Of note, the outlook for prices paid rose to the highest since January 2019. The expectations for prices received are at the most since January 2020. Maybe we're about to see the inventory build show up as the 6 month Inventories component jumped by almost 9 pts m/o/m to the highest since July 2018. Positively, capital spending plans, including technology, both rose by 8 pts m/o/m.

Bottom line, this was a mixed bag report and I have to believe that the case count jump over the past few weeks likely put a brake on business confidence. We certainly have a lot to look forward to in 2021 with the vaccine news but we still have to get from here to there and business will be challenged in the upcoming months. I highlighted the inflationary pressures that I'm seeing because this will only get exaggerated in 2021 when that vaccine really rolls out.

NY MFR'G



Six month outlook for MANUFACTURING



Six Month Outlook for PRICES PAID

Six month outlook for INVENTORIES

This is a prime reason why I am short homebuilders - rapidly rising home prices, and higher mortgage rates, always sow the seeds for a residential real estate downturn:

* Buy the rumor (S&P futures +42 handles), sell the news?

* Look for Ss (S and P) over Ns (Nasdaq) as Moderna's great vaccine news will hasten the pivot from growth to value

* Look to value investments - banks (my favorite group) and other beneficiaries - and away from large, high tech growth over the remainder of 2020 and for 2021

* For the second time in a month, XLF is my "Trade of the Week" today

* I am aggressively shorting SPY and QQQ in pre-market trading

* The post-pandemic world will have added trillions of dollars of debt just to get back to the status quo


Throughout 2020 it has paid to dispassionately sell/short extreme strength and buy extreme weakness. 

Now may be another time for the later. 

Stock futures are ripping on Moderna's (MRNA) strong results:

Many will view this news as uber bullish - with the prospects for defeating the virus now at hand. 

From my perch the time to buy equities was back in March, 2020, when confidence in innovation made by the scientific and health was low. 

Now, with confidence high and valuations and prices lifted (S&P futures were recently +42), Nasdaq futures are muted, as many of the components of that Index will be actually be "hurt by the news" as Covid-19 pulled forward much in the way of sales and profits. 

Now, the pivot from growth to value can intensify. 

In support of shorting now, it is important to recognize that the damage has been done to small businesses as well as a number of larger businesses that have taken on huge amounts of debt to traverse the pre vaccine terrain. 

Most will not receive the vaccine until late in the first quarter of next year and our normal routines will not return until the first half of 2022. 

Both Pfizer's (PFE) and Moderna's vaccine (two shots, four weeks apart) will produce only a limited impact (relative to consensus expectations in 2021) and will only pull forward expectations by about eight weeks. 

Two months ago only about 25k Americans have been diagnosed daily with Covid-19. By contrast, over 160k cases were confirmed on Saturday. Though morbidity is less than April, daily deaths are now in-line with the spike during the summer months. Over the next three months lockdowns will likely be imposed, schools closed, quarantines will escalate and public and private gatherings are likely to be limited, etc. 

Despite the grave consequences of the virus, bullish investor exuberance has been rising in anticipation of a a therapeutic and vaccine resolution - and could peak with the Moderna news. 

And so could the pivot from growth to value be hastened now as investors begin to worry about how much in sales and profits have been pushed forward since early 2020. 

My favorite group, banks, could finally break out to the upside from the recent trading range. 

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund  (XLF) , for the second time in a month, is my "Trade of the Week," today. From November 2: 

* The stars, fundamentals, "the pivot" (from growth to value), bond prices and charts might now be aligning to produce a strong short term rally in bank stocks

The case for a near term rally in bank stocks may be (finally!) improving:

* Fundamentals - As expressed below, third quarter EPS results indicated that despite record low interest rates (margins and net interest income) and unprecedented loan loss provisioning, the major money center banks have scaled a lot of their profit headwinds and will still likely record an expansion in tangible book value in 2020 over 2019. Investors should now begin to focus on the "easy credit compares" and nadir of net interest spreads next year.

* Bond Prices Are Firming: Bond yields are approaching the highest level since June. Bank stocks are the most asset sensitive sector and directly benefit from rising fixed income yields.

* The Charts May Be Aligned: Surprisingly to many the relative performance of banks stocks has been flat since July. Look closely and a breakout to the upside (of the BKX) could be at hand:

Source: The Divine Ms M

Moreover, on Thursday, in "Have The Charts of Financials Begun to Turn More Favorable?, I pointed out that the chart of JPMorgan (JPM) and other banks looked deeply oversold and similar to the favorable set up of a year ago - right before the group had a strong absolute and relative move higher:

However, this time, the relative strength line has been okay.

* The Pivot From Growth to Value May Finally Be At Hand:

Banks are value stocks and should be a prime beneficiary of the pivot.

As a perspective, I recently highlighted what I believe to be a very strong longer term case for financials in "Bank Stocks Are Almost Universally Hated - Perhaps Providing an Unprecedented Longer Term Opportunity for Investors."

I wrote:

* I remain very optimistic about the 2-3 year sector outlook
* With individual add on buys, new positions in GS and MS and a large XLF position taken last week, my exposure to financials now exceed 25%
* This week's EPS announcements will show clear signposts that better profits reports lie ahead in 2021-23

Everyone loves Raymond, but nearly everyone hates bank stocks. As an example, this morning, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer came down hard on the banking group and questioned whether the space can ever perform well.

I respectfully disagree with all the naysayers as, to me, the intermediate term outlook for bank stocks remains solid and this week's EPS announcements may even encourage investors over the near term:

* A strong $2.2 trillion Democratic stimulus bill in February is positive for banks and the extension of bank credit, especially as it is likely that U.S. corporate profits will be reduced by higher tax rates in 2021. A grander stimulus package will likely shape the yield curve and cause interest rates to rise. This is not priced in and could be a surprise factor to the upside.

* One of the largest asset class mispricings, which has held back financial stocks, are the current level of interest rates. With inflation breakevens rising and with unbridled fiscal spending, and given other factors, interest rates may have nowhere to go but higher.

* Rising interest rates is important to bank profitability - and the leverage off of higher rates and much larger deposit bases is not appreciated. Bank deposit growth has been enormous over the last decade but the deposit balance gains over the last 12 months has been even more extraordinary. The leveraged impact of higher interest rates on much higher - and low cost - deposit balances will be enormous.

* Given the likelihood that there will be a "Blue Wave," corporate tax rates will move higher. This means that companies will need more, not less, access to bank credit in 2021.

* Higher corporate tax rates (from 21% to 28%) will only modestly reduce bank earnings - by about -7% - about the same reduction in industrial earnings.

* But the marked reduction in loan loss provisioning in 2021-22 will lead to a material outperformance of bank earnings per share relative to the rest of the S&P Index and market.

* While many are concerned about more regulation from a Democratic administration, it is clear to me that a Biden White House will first have its eyes first on controlling technology through regulation and antitrust. As a consequence I feel it is unlikely that banks will not be subject to a major legislative effort over the next few years. They are already heavily regulated!

* From a near term standpoint, third quarter will likely indicate a topping in loan loss provisions, a continued improvement in fee based income lines (e.g., mortgages) and strong capital market activity's contribution to overall revenues and profits.

* While there is still net interest margin pressure, 3Q results will indicate, and bring on commentary, regarding a bottoming in non fee margins and income.

* Industry balance sheets remain remarkably strong despite Covid's impact on business and personal credit. Most banks will survive an unprecedented rise in loan loss provisioning - with a large income statement hit but without any significant balance sheet damage. Despite the P&L hit, most large money center banks will INCREASE their book value year over year (2020/2019).

* Very low valuations reflect the gross skepticism towards banks and, a valuation reset higher could provide a low hanging fruit factor to much better bank stock prices.

I have written quite a lot on the banking industry over the last six months:

* Looking For Love In All The Right Places

* Daily Affirmations: Short Bonds, Buy Banks?

* Bank Buy Back Ban Extended

* Buy Entry Levels in Banks

* Fine Tuning JPMorgan Earnings Estimates

* It May Be Time For Bank Stocks To Trade Higher and Move Out of the Recent Trading Range

* The Report of the Banking Industry's Death is Greatly Exaggerated

* Bank of America Remains Attractive

* The Intermediate Term Case for Bank Stocks Remains Strong and Intact

* An Explanation of Wells Fargo's Challenges and My Bank Stock Strategy

Despite the near universal hatred towards the group, the relative earnings momentum of banks (against the non financial components of the S&P Index) will begin improving materially in the quarters ahead. That positive momentum and change in the rate of growth will accelerate as 2021 progresses.

Not content with my already large financial holdings, I have recently added to my four money center bank positions, and established new positions in (GS) (at $190, now +$5/share on the day and trading over $213 this morning).

Finally, let's remember that in a market dominated by products and strategies that chase price and momentum, "buyers live higher"- should bank stocks make a move higher from here, the machines and algos will be following and buying bank stocks.

Post haste.

And the same cabal that is bearish on banks will then turn positive on banks.

Bottom Line

My contention is that, even with the recent vaccine announcements, consensus S&P EPS forecasts for next year of $170/share are far too high. 

And, as we move into the next few years, the mountain of private and public debt will serve as a governor to domestic and global growth and to corporate profits - producing a lengthy period of sub par growth in the economy and in the markets. The post-pandemic world will have added trillions of dollar of debt just to get back to status quo. 

The market is ignoring this and is not taking into account the anti-growth effects of the debt or the damage incurred by so many businesses and long-term changes in consumer and business behavior - especially where there is a strong case for higher interest rates and rising inflation and inflationary expectations.
__________ 

Long SPY (large) and QQQ puts (large), BAC (large), WFC (large), C (large), JPM (large), GS (small), MS (small), XLF (large).

Short SPY QQQ.

Danielle DiMartino Booth:

• Per the NY Fed's October Survey of Consumers, the mean perceived probability of finding a job was 46.9%, much weaker than February's 58.7% and the lowest since April; similarly, an IBD/TIPP November poll had 46% of households with at least one person looking for a job
• Uncertain Business Conditions hit their highest level since October 2016 in November, per UMich's consumer survey; sell-side estimates for a strong rebound rely on a full recovery of real consumer spending and a reversal of downward price pressures, which have yet to occur
• Amidst new virus concerns, restaurant activity is down to -52% YoY from the recent -35% peak, per OpenTable; small business concerns are also at a pandemic high in a November Goldman Sachs poll, with 40% of owners feeling they would either close or still don't know

The wooden soldiers will not synchronously tumble down. The Nativity won't be live. And John D. Rockefeller Jr. is looking down from heaven with a heavy heart. In October 1928, New York's economy was on a high boil. Rockefeller had just signed a lease for an expansive stretch of midtown Manhattan where he envisioned a new Metropolitan Opera House. Grandiose was scuttled with the stock market crash. To the world's delight, theater legend S.L. "Roxy" Rothafeld and industrial designer Donald Deskey collaborated to erect a sublime monument to art deco in what remains the world's largest indoor theater. Neither the sorrows of the Great Depression or World War II were severe enough to scuttle the Christmas Spectacular at Radio City Music Hall which has run every year since 1933. But there will be no high-kicking Rockettes this year. And for the first time in 87 years, the tree lighting at Rockefeller Center will bear no witnesses other than those tuned into NBC.

We take some comfort in the Rockettes' jobs being salvaged. Though the viewing public will also not be allowed to attend Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, as is the case with the tree lighting, the parade - resplendent with balloons and bands - will also be televised a week from Thursday. If there's a parade, the Rockettes will dazzle in it. That's more than can be said for 350 now former employees of MSG Entertainment, which owns Radio City and Madison Square Garden. The redundancies effect about a third of its workforce. Emblematic of the quiet rise in white-collar layoffs, MSG Sports, which owns the New York Knicks and New York Rangers, is culling 50 from its corporate staff.

New York's restaurant crisis has also not let up. A new survey by the NYC Hospitality Alliance revealed 88% of restaurants were not able to pay their full rent in October. Restaurant owners have expressed concern that it's not the 10 pm curfew but rather the rise in COVID-19 cases that could drive more to close for good. Open Table data reveal that after improving to -68% year-over-year (YoY), restaurant activity in NYC is back down to -83% YoY. That compares to the nation as a whole which sported a recent high point of -35% YoY but has since worsened to -52% YoY.

A reversion to dining at home is a micro-reflection of a broader slippage in consumer confidence. Last Monday's release of October's New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that the mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one's current job was lost), had fallen to the lowest reading since April. At 46.9%, the latest read is appreciably weaker than 2019's average of 59.9% and February 2020's 58.7% print.

A day later, the IBD/TIPP Poll for November found that 46% of households have at least one person looking for a full-time job. Another 42% are concerned about job loss in the household. In another parallel to this past spring, the Financial Related Stress Index rose to 66.7 from 65 in September, the highest since April (readings above 50 reflect rising stress).

And finally, in an apparent pattern, Friday's preliminary November take from the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers saw expectations for job growth tumble by 12 points to the lowest since...April. Income expectations also hit a six-month low.

We're as hopeful as you are that we get a vaccine. It's getting old to not be able to hug our parents. We're equally tempering our enthusiasm about what the future holds until we have more certainty on the present. And we're not alone. A flash Deutsche Bank survey found that the vaccine news had, "only persuaded 13% of responders that it could rapidly accelerate a return to normality. 53% think we will get back to normal slightly quicker than they previously thought."

As you can see on today's left-hand chart, uncertainty is conspicuous in its abundance. Characterize the replies via the UMich survey as to where business is headed as a doubtful shoulder shrug. No News Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions (blue line) hit a post-pandemic low in June and had started to recover before backsliding in November. It follows that Uncertain Business Conditions in the next 12 months (green line) hit the highest point since October 2016, when the economy was exiting its industrial recession. Sell-side estimates for a strong rebound of GDP, earnings and revenues are predicated on a full rebound in inflation adjusted consumer spending (yellow line) and an alleviation of the downward trend in price pressures for those essentials that households must buy (red line).

Checking the consensus' enthusiasm is small business owners' collective view that they either will fold or just don't know (right-hand chart), the sum of which is a post-pandemic high of 40% according to Goldman Sachs. In the spirit of keeping it real at QI, in the last few days, Small Business America lost:

• Rollhaven - Ossawa, Michigan's only indoor skating rink that's been hosting aspiring hockey players for 45 years
• After nearly a century, Cape Cod Sea Camps' 50 cabins will no longer welcome kids who arrive prone to home-sicknesses and go home knowing what it means to "grow up"
• With particular poignance given QI spent many joyous summer weekends in the town, Attic Heirlooms is closing in Damariscotta, Maine

Big and small, traditions are being sacrificed across America.