My average cost on my QQQ  (QQQ) purchase in the after hours is $214.65.

On second thought...  I think I might have made a mistake selling QQQs  (QQQ) .  Back long!

"Just one more thing."
- Lt. Columbo
After the close, I called an audible and sold my PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) trading long rental for a loss.
I am still long SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund trust  (SPY) for a trade.

These are some of my core views and guiding expectations as I position my trading and investing positions in the next few months:

* Market conditions have changed radically this week. We are back to a "two way" market.

* Thanks to market structure , it is likely that volatility will stay high - providing opportunities to trade (both long and short).

* In a regime of heightened volatility, position size should be reduced.

* That said, there will be many opportunities to trade on the long side during the year. And also on the short side!

* The year's peak in equity prices may have occurred in the middle of February (with the S&P Index at 3393).

* While my "fair market value" for the S&P Index is 2850, I wouldn't be surprised if the Index never got there. (But it could be close if the ETFs and quant products and strategies move and stay in "reverse" from their contribution to the robust and relentless market in 2019.) The last time the S&P traded below my "fair market value" was in the last half of 2018.

* Over the next six months and at the current level of the S&P Index (3125), downside risk is now only slightly greater than upside reward.

* From a trading standpoint... Buying weakness (and fear) as I am now doing and selling strength (and greed) as we were doing earlier in the year requires an emotionless mindset. But it may prove to be a rewarding methodology.

* From an investing standpoint... I am laser focused on embracing the potential intermediate term opportunities that are presented when share prices deviate dramatically from my view of intrinsic value.

* Bond prices, in my view, are unlikely to continue to rally much more from current levels and yields are unlikely to fall (or rise) very much. The 10 year U.S. note is yielding 1.33% this afternoon. This is likely close to the low print for 2020. That said, the upside in 10 year yields is now likely under 2% for the balance of the year. Let's call the expected 10 year note yield range of 1.25%-2.00%.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the evening.

In this period, and possibly regime of heightened volatility, my plan is to trade very actively.
This approach, like short selling, is not for many.
In fact, it is not for most.
But I will continue to be transparent in my activity - win, lose or draw - in the hope of delivering investment good returns.

My current plan is to keep both my (SPY) and (QQQ) long trading rentals overnight.

Breadth turns 2-1 negative.

Besides the 10 year U.S. note yield, equity traders are watching the 200 day moving average ($304.23) in the Spyders.

Both Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) have hit my buy zones and I added small to both just now.

I moved to between medium and large in both (SPY) long at $311.25, and QQQ long at $215.40.

The 10 year yield is now the cool kid in town in terms of what's being watched the most.
Every stock trader (and algo) now are staring at the 10 year U.S. note yield.

S&P futures are now 60 handles off of the morning highs.

Added to trading long rentals in (SPY) at $313.60 and (QQQ) at $217.30, respectively.

Breadth is about -200 (decliners over advancers) and the Indices are trading near the lows of the day.

Bond yields are unchanged and oil continues lower (-$0.68).

* Sometimes people just talk to be heard
I am hearing that the ascent of Bernie Sanders is one of the catalysts taking the market down.
I challenge that because the odds of a Trump victory has actually INCREASED into this week's market schmeissing on all of the betting sites.Here is Predictit.

Added to (SPY) at $314.50.

Added to (QQQ) trading long rental at $216.68, now medium-sized.

I just reestablished a trading long position in (QQQ) (at $216.98).

From Knowledge@Wharton on coronavirus.


And this from my friends at Miller Tabak on the same subject:

Coronavirus Threat Not Yet Likely to Spur the Fed to Action

We have written before that because it is so hard to estimate the probability of Coronavirus spreading, investors may respond to news about the outbreak by putting extra weight on the worst-case scenario. This seems to be the case with the weekend's news that the virus is now spreading in Italy. It is notable that the declines in U.S. stocks (6.3% for the S&P 500) through Tuesday are similar to those in most European exchanges. This suggests that markets are fully pricing in an eventual spread to the U.S. instead of focusing on the direct hit to Europe.

Based on fundamentals, the Coronavirus would have to slow U.S. GDP by well over 1% for a year to justify this decline. This may be reasonable; we admit to being alarmed by the Center for Disease Control's comment that "we are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad." But this week's stock decline is consistent with the worst case scenario for China also hitting the U.S. There is also the possibility that non-fundamentals are driving much of the current decline with the virus simply being a catalyst for a pullback that is more about high equities valuations than the virus itself.

It is doubtful that the outbreak will lead to any action from the Fed at its March 17-18 meeting. The outbreak is yet to have any concrete impact on U.S. growth forecasts with 1Q2020 growth forecasts still in the 1.5-2.5% range. Things would have to get much worse, very quickly, for the Fed to move within a month. Otherwise, expect increased emphasis on the virus as a downside risk in Chairman Powell's press conference. But it is yet another factor keeping the Fed in an accommodative posture for most of 2020 and possibly longer. We next consider another one.

I sold my (QQQ) rental at $219.50 for a +$3.30 gain from pre-market trading.

This morning I moved to medium-sized (GS) , (SPY) , and (QQQ) longs.
And I moved back to large-sized on (BAC) and (C) .
I have a busy research schedule today (mostly phoners) but I will outline the case for buying early tomorrow morning.

Thomas C

"ViacomCBS Is A Steal And Potential Acquisition Target"

VIAC EV/adjusted OIBDA based on the low-end 2020 estimates is only 6.34 and the stock trades at 5.3x TTM earnings.

The merger of Viacom and CBS gives the company a critical mass that is nearly essential for any substantial TV offering, especially if they keep the relationship with the NFL.

A low valuation and content like Top Gun, South Park, Star Trek, make VIAC a compelling acquisition target for the large digital players.

Cord-cutting is having a radical impact on the entertainment and cable industry, as consumers are determining where and how they want to consume content, making a cable subscription far less essential than in decades past. Unsurprisingly, the stocks of legacy channel and affiliate owners have struggled, while cord-less distributors such as Netflix and Roku are thriving. Mr. Market is known to hate uncertainty, and I believe he has thrown out the baby with the bathwater when it comes to the common stock of ViacomCBS (VIAC). Whichever ways consumers wish to consume their entertainment, content will be the key component for companies to possess. VIAC should eventually either see multiple expansion or it would be an ideal acquisition candidate for a company like Apple, Google, Netflix, or Amazon.

ViacomCBS is a monster of content creation, boasting a library of over 3600 films, 140K TV episodes, and 1.5 billion social media fans and followers. The company spends about $13 billion annually to create this content. Less than three months ago, the combination of CBS and Viacom enabled the company to lead in a multitude of the most important demographics that advertisers are focused on. The combination has given the company a critical mass of content, making it extremely tough for there to be a viable television offering without it. Paramount helps the company create a valuable film ecosystem, strengthening its offerings on various channels such as Showtime and its cable networks. ViacomCBS possesses lynchpin networks such as CBS, MTV, VH1, and Nickelodeon, to name a few. Franchises such as Star Trek, Top Gun, and South Park, are highly valuable, however they are consumed. The company primarily makes money through distributing its assortment of content, selling ads on it, and licensing it into other avenues.

As part of the merger, the company is in the process of consolidating its sales force, streamlining groupings of networks, and integrating digital assets and capabilities. Management increased its annualized run rate for cost savings to $750MM from $500MM. None of this progress was reflected in an ugly Q4 given the timing of the transaction, but long-term the merger should pay real dividends. A major focus for management is building out its own streaming operations, which were bolstered from the acquisition of Pluto TV for $340MM in early 2019. Pluto TV ended 2019 with 22.4MM monthly active users. Domestic streaming and digital video revenue totaled $1.6 billion for the year, growing by 60%.

For 2019, Advertising generated $11.074 billion of revenue, with Affiliate and Content Licensing, bringing in $8.602 billion and $6.483 billion respectively. All three divisions saw growth YoY. Publishing revenue declined by 1% to $814MM, while Theatrical was down 26% to $547MM. TV Entertainment and Cable Networks brought in adjusted OIBDA of $2.443 and $3.515 billion, respectively. Filmed Entertainment and Publishing had adjusted OIBDA of $80MM and $143MM, respectively.

Adjusted free cash flow in 2019 was $1.24 billion in 2019, and management believes that the figure should grow to $1.8-$2B in 2020, with additional growth in the following years. This growth would be bolstered via roughly $750MM of efficiency savings from the recently closed merger between CBS and VIAC. 2020 guidance suggests mid-single-digit revenue growth, including 35-40% Domestic Streaming & Digital Revenue growth. Adjusted OIBDA should be between $5.8 billion-$6.1 billion, up from $5.5 billion in 2019. Adjusted diluted EPS is forecast to be between $5.15-$5.50, up from $5.01 in 2019.

At a recent price of $28.26 and with 615MM diluted shares outstanding, VIAC has a market capitalization of roughly $17.4 billion. The enterprise value is approximately $36.8 billion, as the company has about $18 billion in long-term debt and another $2 billion in pension obligations. In 2019, the company had total revenues of $27.812 billion, up from $27.25 billion in 2018. Costs grew at a more rapid rate however, escalating from $22.046 billion in 2018, to $24.088 billion in 2019. Operating income dropped to $4.273 billion, from the $5.204 billion in 2018. Net earnings for 2019, were $3.308 billion, or $5.36 per down slightly from $3.455 billion, or $5.56 per share.

EV/EBIT over the trailing twelve months is roughly 8.6x, and the TTM P/E is around 5.3x. Using VIAC's low-end projected 2020 adjusted OIBDA of $5.8 billion, the EV/adjusted OIBDA is only 6.34x. That is way too cheap for a capital-light company, with the assets of VIAC. It is tough for me to believe that if the stock continues to languish, a buyer such as Apple, Google, Amazon, or Netflix wouldn't emerge. Think of how much more compelling their offerings would be with the types of essential channels and brands that VIAC possesses.

Management stated that they have the willingness to opportunistically buy back stock, in addition to their deleveraging efforts, which are understandably a priority. Long-term, the company wants to get debt/adjusted OIBDA to 2.75, from about 3.4x currently. VIAC pays a dividend of 96 cents a share annually, which is good for a 3.4% yield based on current prices. 2020 should be a good year with a likely record amount of political advertising coming around, along with big movies release like Top Gun 2 and Sonic. For the long-term investor, VIAC has the potential to rise to around $46, based on an 8x multiple of 2020 adjusted OIBDA. This would still be less than 10 times earnings per share, so hardly a heroic achievement, from a multiple expansion standpoint.

I have added to (VIAC)  , (C) , (BAC) , (GS) , (SPY) , (QQQ) longs this morning.

* The "Everything Bubble" has been abruptly pierced
* Corporate profits expectations - for the second year in a row - will be dramatically downgraded in the months ahead
* And so will global economic projections be slashed
* The market's oversold might provide a short term trading opportunity (I took a long rental in SPY at the close) but the first quarter 2020 high in the S&P could be in place for the next 6-9 months
* A "Garden Variety" Bear Market probably has already begun
* Though investing will be challenging this year, 2020 will probably provide enormous trading opportunities


Surprise #2 Disappointing Global Growth, Weakening Corporate Profits, a Fed Pivot and Political and Geopolitcal Instability Produce a "Garden Variety" Bear Market in 2020

As we entered 2020 the almost universal view is that liquidity and the central banks' put, at the very least, provides a market floor and at the best, will contribute to the next speculative leg of the decade old Bull Market as the market train is supported by the Fed trestle.

As I finished My15 Surprises for 2020 over the weekend and reviewed the extraordinary nature of the 2019 market -- I marvel at the Bull Market in Complacency that seems almost at the polar opposite of the doom and gloom that existed on December 26, 2018, a bit more than 12 months ago. As an example, the CNN Fear and Greed Index was around 2 (!) a year ago compared to 91 (!) this morning. The same applies to the flip flop in AAII sentiment (from very bearish to very bullish - and with the gap between the two moving to over 40).

As seen in the chart below (added post-Surprise LIst), I would be less concerned with the outlook if the market's 2019 advance was earnings derived. It was not - like in 2013 it was entirely based on a reset of higher valuations (from a PE of 14.5x at year-end 2018 to approximately 19.0x at year-end 2019). Indeed, consensus 2019 S&P EPS forecasts stood at about $178/share 12 months ago - they are likely to fall in the $163-$164/share level range. As to the 2020 S&P EPS consensus estimates, they, not surprisingly, stand at the same $178/share today! They will likely miss (by an unusually) wide mark, again.



And I would be far less concerned if a changing market structure (the proliferation and popularity of ETFs and the dominance of risk parity and quant products and strategies) coupled with the death of active investing had not served to exaggerate upside price momentum - foiling the natural price discovery many of us "old timers" yearn for.

Meanwhile, as the year concludes, precious metals have made a very "quiet" stealth rally - just look at (GLD) 's chart over the last seven weeks. (What are the gold traders seeing that we are not?)

The majority of "talking heads" who hated stocks a year ago are uber bullish on equities this year. (Didn't we learn from the wrong-footed consensus interest rate forecasts of last December, that self confidently called for a 3.5%+ 10 year U.S. note yield at 2019 year-end?)

Am I concerned? Should investors be concerned? You are damn right. Nevertheless, the consensus remains positive - and the consensus projections shine today with their typical +8% to +10% advance anticipated for the S&P Index.

My view is that next year's surprise will be a year of mean reversion, but unlike most, I make this surprise without forecast certainty as I recognize that central bankers have lost their collective minds. And so may have many traders and investors.

In 2020, the surprise would be that the "everything bubble" (in which every asset class advanced) is pierced and the notion of mean reversion of returns finally surfaces (just when no one is looking).

Though the third year of the Presidential cycle (2019) was a good one - not so much for the last year of the Presidential cycle (2020).

Despite easing money and an abundance of global liquidity, the rate of growth of the U.S. economy fails to accelerate this year - "The Fed Is Pushing On A String." Domestic GDP growth slows to under +1% in real terms. Core inflation sits at 2% (but headline inflation is much higher due to rising energy prices). Company share buybacks are sharply diminished as corporate profits disappoint and corporations begin to balk at high stock prices (another surprise)

Though economic growth is slow, interest rates begin to rise in 2020 as the growing U.S. debt load begins to matter. The bond vigilantes slowly return out of hibernation. Higher rates trips up levered corporations and levered consumers. Foreign buyers of credit and Treasuries lose interest in the U.S. debt markets and start selling.

The Fed is stuck and, not wanting to be political, ends its balance sheet expansion and makes no move on interest rates until after the election.

Higher wages and other input costs pressure corporate profits in a backdrop of slowing revenues and domestic growth.

The consensus expectation for 2020 S&P EPS of about $178/share is, for the second year in a row, way off mark as EPS growth falls for the second year in a row because of a continued decline in profit margins that +3% revenue growth can't overcome. 2020 S&P EPS per share falls to modestly below the $163-$165/share recorded in 2019.

Investors, realizing that corporate profits have essentially been flat since 2014, begin to panic at the "new normal" of subpar economic growth. Another year in which earnings growth fails to recover reverses the valuation upwards reset (so conspicuous last year) as market participants grow increasingly concerned about the real economy's secular growth prospects.

Much of the more than +25% 2019 reset (higher) of valuations is reversed in 2020 - as price earnings multiples decline by about -15%, producing a modestly larger full year decline (-17%) in the S&P Index. 2020's market drop is the worst since 2002's fall of -23%.

The S&P Index closed at 3265 on Friday. The Year's high is made in the first month of the year (at under 3350), the 2020 low in the S&P Index is 2550 and the close is about 2700.

- Kass Diary,15 Surprises for 2020

In mid-February the S&P Index peaked at 3395 (not far from the Surprise peak of 3350 above).

At 5 am on a futures equivalent basis the S&P Index was trading at about 3125 - or about 280 handles or -8.5% from the all-time high hit on the week of February 19.

Once again 3 am turned to be a pivot point for stock futures (perhaps its overseas sellers) and a +20 S&P futures rise quickly became a -19 drop (at the low). The markets have become increasingly volatile (something I predicted 1 1/2 months ago) and futures at about 5:00 am were flat.

By This Measure, Mr. Market Is Now Oversold

"Going to leave this broke-down palace
On my hands and my knees I will roll, roll, roll
Make myself a bed by the waterside
In my time, in my time, I will roll, roll, roll"
- Grateful Dead,Brokedown Palace

The S&P 500 is down 6.3% over the last two days, its the 109th largest two day decline going back to 1928. But, with the exception of August 21/24 2015 (-7%), it's the largest two day decline since 2008.

If we look carefully at this chart we see that most of the large two day drops occurred in three time periods - in The Great Depression of the 1930s, in 1987 (when "Portfolio Insurance" decimated the market post haste in October), and in The Great "Recession" of 2008.

While we face a plethora of threats in 2020 they are not comparable to these insidious periods of massive economic interruption and destruction.



The 2020 Market Landscape

As most subscribers are aware, in the last 2-3 years the S&P Index pierced my "fair market value" calculation only once - in the last few months of 2018 and I went long.

My current estimate of fair market value for the S&P Index (as observed yesterday in An Honest and Still Ursine Market View is 2850 or about 8% lower than the current level of 3125:

Current S&P Price: 3125
Approximate Fair Market Value of the S&P: 2850

Markets tend to spend lengthy periods of time in overvalued and undervalued conditions. So, there is obviously no guarantee that the market will fall to 2850 - but I use this calculus as a method of judging upside reward vs. downside risk.

If we use the February S&P Index high of 3395 and my fair market value estimate of 2850 - against the current 3125 level - we are exactly in the middle with upside reward equivalent to downside risk.

That's a far cry from the overvaluation and imbalance when the downside risk dwarfed upside reward of only 10 days ago.

Given the swiftness and depth of this week's decline I took a (SPY) trading long rental near the close yesterday. (This is a rental and not a long term lease)

Bottom Line

2020 profit, economic and market expectations are now likely being reassessed by traders and investors.

On the other hand, volatility is likely to remain heightened relative to the last 12-15 months.

The Bull Market in Complacency has faded in the last two trading days. (That's a step in the right direction.) And the 270 handle drop from the highs in the S&P Index has obliterated participants' complacency, has raised fear and has placed upside/downside more in balance.

In history (see chart above), the prior large two day declines occurred during horrific economic periods for our country (during The Great Depression in the 1930s and The Great Recession in 2008) -- times that will not now likely be duplicated.

To borrow words from the Oracle of Omaha I am, temporarily "being greedy when others are fearful."

So, given the depth and speed of this week's schmeissing, I took a trading long rental in Spyders late yesterday.

While I am of the view that we could move lower this year (from current levels), it will not likely be a straight line.

There will be ample opportunities to trade on both the long and short side.

And that is what I plan to do. 

Danielle DiMartino Booth talks Canada:

• Canada's yield curve is inverted all the way out to the 30-year tenor signaling a potential recession; it would take two quarter-point rate cut moves by the Bank of Canada to un-invert the curve, which is not fully priced into the current options market
• In the current expansions, Canada's corporate profits and, in turn, equity markets have weathered two mini-cycles; the Coronavirus-exacerbated trade-war-induced yield curve inversion has yet to see its last chapter written, but it does threaten to finally end this cycle
• Even with lower rates, the Canadian dollar faces challenges given its tight correlation to low oil prices that have been further depressed by collapsing Chinese demand; business investment may not benefit from lower rates as investors demand balance sheet fortification

Clint Eastwood's acting career spans seven decades. But it's the warm winter and the early bloom in the air that has us gravitating towards the legend's Trouble with the Curve zinger: "What do you say now, jackass? That's known as trouble with the curve." Didn't you know, Spring training is upon us. Just past noon today, the Yankees play the Nationals, which might distract you from the Coronavirus landing in Brazil.

As for the other curve that has nothing to do with baseball, yield curve inversion fever has hit trading floors...again. It's Pavlovian. You say, "inversion." They say, "recession."

That is, unless you're talking about the U.S.'s neighbor to the north. From the three-month bill all the way out the curve to the thirty-year point, every single tenor is inverted. The popular three-month/ten-year spread clocked out yesterday at -40 basis points (bps). In a vacuum, it would take two quarter-point Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cuts to un-invert the curve.

And yet, the overnight indexed swap (OIS) market has only one rate cut fully priced for the June BoC meeting and almost another one for its October conclave. What's a little insurance between friends to fight a potential recession tied to COVID-19?

Coronavirus' wider spread to countries like South Korea and Italy over the last week should have Canada on alert. For good measure, throw in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warning that it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when' the virus is more prevalent here in the States.

Still, as of this writing, Canada has just 11 confirmed cases -- seven in British Columbia, three in Toronto and one in London, Ontario. It's clear it's the official count outside of Canada that's ignited the fear of contagion which would expose Canada's bond market to asymmetric downside risk and a much deeper inversion in the curve.

Over the shortest term, bond and stock markets might not trade rationally. Over the longer haul, certain relationships can be gleaned from the shape of the yield curve vis-à-vis corporate profits and broader stock market returns. Rather than us explain, it, have a look at today's graph.

As you can see, the profile for profit growth and equity performance has followed the flattening of Canada's yield curve. Looking back, the curve compressed as the early 2000s expansion matured alongside a moderation in Canadian corporate earnings and in turn, its stock market's returns. The curve then inverted just as the Great Recession hit.

The current Canadian economic expansion has revealed not one, not two, but three mini-cycles in profits and equities. The first arrived after the euro crisis, the second, after the oil bust, and the third, a combination of trade war and Coronavirus. The ending has yet to be written. That said, the relatively deep inversion does not suggest "happily ever after."

The global health emergency hasn't just presented near-term downside risks to Canadian rates, but also to its energy sector and the Canadian dollar (CAD). Any seasoned CAD trader knows how well linked the loonie is to oil prices. China is the world's largest marginal buyer of oil and activity has nearly ground to a halt because of Coronavirus.

Incredibly, despite this, oil markets haven't traded as if Oil-mageddon is upon us. We should disclaim that oil prices had already withstood several Mideast scares that didn't come to pass, but depressed prices in the process. It's likely that even without the Coronavirus, the sum of the secular slowdown in the auto industry and supply-shock resistant oil prices, a good part of Canada was already in recession.

To that end, with already depressed energy prices as a backdrop, starting points matter. Pre-virus, small business confidence in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador had been contracting consecutively for three, three and two months, respectively. Another month in the red should enter the history books when the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) survey hits the wires Friday.

I just paid $216.20 in pre-market trading for a small rental in (QQQ) s.
So now I have trading long rentals in (SPY) and QQQ.

The market have already cut interest rates:

In what I've heard from some Fed speeches over the past week I do believe they are seemingly taking the right approach in their messaging that they will wait to see how this virus impact plays out. After all, a rate cut won't bring Chinese factories back on line any quicker. And a rate cut won't get people flying and traveling again until the virus peters out. Either way, the US bond market has already eased for them. The US 10 yr yield at 1.37% has essentially cut rates by 25 bps over the past two weeks for those looking to refi or purchase a home.

Lower rates may ease the cost of buying a car but with car prices at record highs (not hedonically adjusted), it won't do much. Credit card rates with 3 Fed rate cuts are still near 17% so another rate cut or two won't help much here. And with respect to a rate cut encouraging more capital spending, the cost of capital clearly hasn't been a binding constraint on any capital decision for years. Will a rate cut or two 'ease financial conditions', aka goose asset prices? Maybe but maybe not. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester a few days ago said "You can't be over-reacting to short term movements in the market" and she expressed at the financial imbalances that cutting rates will do. She mentioned the high valuations of equities, commercial real estate and excessive corporate debt (but all created by Fed policy).

It does seem like the virus spread is slowing in China, assuming any data is believable, with the risk of course shifting elsewhere, particularly parts of Asia, Europe and the fear in the US. While I certainly don't know, I'll talk out loud and speculate that while this all started in China, maybe it ends there first because of the dramatic steps they've taken to quarantine it.

Not capturing the past two days of sharp market declines but including the selloff last week, Investors Intelligence said Bulls fell to 49.1 from 54.7 and we can assume if it was taken again today that number would be much lower. Bears were barely up, by .3 pts to 19.2 as most of the Bulls went to the Correction side as they rose to a 3 week high at 31.7. Bottom line assume the past two days wiped out a lot of complacency that became embedded in this market.

The drop in the average 30 yr mortgage rate saw purchase applications rise 5.7% w/o/w but after 3 weeks of declines. They are up 10.2% y/o/y on still easy comparisons. Refi's were little changed w/o/w, down by .8% but still are up a huge 152% y/o/y. Expect to see next week an even lower mortgage rate in response to the plunge in the 10 yr note yield.

Overseas we saw French February consumer confidence that held at near the high in this cycle. After weeks of transit strikes in response to Macron's plan to overhaul their pension systems, it seems things have gotten back to normal on this front. Hopefully of course the virus spread to Italy doesn't now inflame the rest of the region

Several observations:* Is this "calling the kettle black?"
* Remember the China/U.S. trade deal - fuhgettabout it!