DAILY DIARY
Here Comes the (Long) Weekend
As always, it was good sitting in for Doug Kass on a Friday here on the Daily Diary.
It was a quiet trading day as one would expect before a three-day weekend. All the major indices ended in the green, but the biggest gain was just over a quarter of a percent. Still, that leaves us once again at all-time highs as 2020 has continued to see follow up to 2019's large rally.
We saw a lot of positive commentary on big tech stocks, including Citigroup upgrading Qualcomm (QCOM) to "Buy" from "Neutral" on the "long awaited 5G ramp." QCOM was up 4.5% today.
I hope everyone on Real Money Pro has an excellent weekend with friends and family. Hopefully we get two good football games this Sunday.
Until next time...
Markets, Economic Readings, Tesla Issues
The markets have been basically stuck in the mud since the first hour of trading today as investors seem more than ready to call it a week before the three-day weekend. Major indices remain slightly in the green, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get some small profit taking action in the last hour of the trading week.
We received quite a few readings on the economy this week, which mostly were strong. December housing starts were more than impressive even if permits fell. The Philly Fed readings and core retail sales numbers were also encouraging.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla Motors (TSLA) . In addition, car registrations have fallen by half in California as tax credits expire. There also are new complaints of sudden unintended acceleration in ~500K Teslas. Despite a litany of bad headlines, the stock is only down 1% today and holding significantly above the $500 level.
At the Ready When Profit Taking Hits the Market
The market is maintaining the slight gains it has been sporting since the opening bell.
Boeing (BA) is not participating in the rally as the 737-Max debacle continues to drag down its shares. More and more analysts expect it to take a major charge when it reports quarterly earnings. One day I think Boeing is going to make for a great buy-write play, but we are not quite there yet in my opinion. I believe the stock might start to make headway about three months before 737-Max production looks ready to restart. That puts me out at the end of the first quarter to look to employ this strategy.
David Tepper and Stanley Druckenmiller were on CNBC today, stating they still see further gains in the stock market in 2020. Mostly along the lines of the adage 'The trend is your friend'. Personally, I will be happy when options expiration happens later today with so many buy-writes heading to expire in the money. This will bring the cash allocation in my personal portfolio up to approximately 30%, just about where it was just before the fourth quarter swoon in the fourth quarter of 2018. I don't expect anything like that decline, but at some point, some profit taking is probably going to hit the market and I want to have 'ammo' to deploy in that scenario.
Market Enthusiasm Seems a Bit Lacking
Markets remain slightly in the green across the board as we approach the midday point. Enthusiasm seems a bit lacking and feels like a lot of traders are getting an early start to the three-day weekend. I would not be surprised at all if we saw some profit taking later this afternoon. Technology has been getting a lot of price target upward revisions in the past couple of days. Citigroup is taking its price target on Intel (INTC) up to $60 from $53 previously today. The analyst there states part of the revision reflects double ordering since CPU supplies remain tight.
One number came out today that makes me think the market could see at least a pause in the coming weeks. U.S. mutual fund and exchange-traded fund long-term flows came in at $67.5 billion in December, a 12-month high. I like the market much better when the retail investor remained wary of equities. Call me a contrarian or curmudgeon if you will.
Job openings fell by 561,000 in November to 6.8 million. This is the lowest level since February 2018. However, the jobs market still remains strong with more than a million more jobs openings than unemployed. One would expect some narrowing as the labor supply continues to tighten.
Nothing Wrong With the American Consumer
The markets open on an up note and are at new all-time highs. All the major indices are slightly in the green to start the day. Investors got better industrial production growth numbers from China this morning. Housing starts soared almost 17% on a year-over-year basis. These are the best levels in 13 years. As I have been saying for some time, while manufacturing continues to be challenged by slow global growth, tariffs and a strong dollar, there is nothing wrong with the American consumer. The combination of the lowest unemployment rate in a half century, strong wage growth, rising labor participation rates, and historically low mortgage rates should continue to boost the housing sector.
Apple (AAPL) is getting a boost from Morgan Stanley this morning. The investment bank raised its price target on Apple from $296 to $368, citing peaking smartphone replacement cycles and the upcoming 5G iPhone lineup. The shares are up slightly in the early going.
The pain isn't over for Boeing (BA) . BAML is stating the costs of grounding of 737-Max could reach $20 billion - excluding any settlements from lawsuits from crash victims' families. And that is if the plane comes back online in June or July. Searching for a silver lining, GDP growth and manufacturing should get nice lift in second half of the year if production restarts in that timeline.
Earnings Continue to Show Solid Results
Pre-market futures are still pointing to a slightly up open as we try to end the trading week hitting more all-time highs. Fourth quarter earnings results continue to flow across the wires. Big financial firms have kicked off the earnings season this week, with results that have largely beat the consensus. Today, State Street (STT) continues that trend with very solid results. Schlumberger (SLB) also beats estimates buoyed by better than expected international demand.
Elsewhere, UBS raised its price target on Alphabet (GOOGL) from $1,460 to $1,675, citing "positive industry checks" for the cloud division. Small oncology play TG Theraepeutics (TGTX) , which has been 'en fuego' in recent months thanks to encouraging trial results and a NDA filing this week, is also seeing some analyst love today. H.C. Wainwright reiterates its Buy rating and lifts its price target from $20 to $24. B Riley FBR does the same and goes to $25 on its price target from $17 previously.
All-Time Highs
It is nice to once again be sitting in for Doug Kass this Friday at the Daily Diary. I will be coming to you from a Starbucks (SBUX) in downtown Miami this morning, as the internet in my building has decided to opt for a three-day weekend. Oh, the perils of modern life. Twenty-five years ago, no one had internet. Now it is like oxygen.
I am going to be talking a lot of biotech today, among other topics I am sure. The S&P 500 crossed over the 3,300 level for the first time yesterday as the market continues to grind up. Pre-market futures are up in early going, so we may see new all-time records again today. I wonder what Paul Krugman would give to take back his post-election rant about where the markets would head under the new administration.
The U.S. government will begin issuing 20-year bonds in the first half of 2020, as budget analysts (and every other rational person, since neither party wants to address the deficit) expect years of continued growth in federal budget deficits.
Good news on the M&A front for the biotech sector. Eli Lilly (LLY) noted that it plans to announce one purchase in the $1 billion to $5 billion range every quarter this year. The giant drug maker took out Dermira (DERM) earlier this month for $1.1 billion.
So, what is on everyone's minds this morning?