DAILY DIARY
Key Takeaways
Here are my key observations today:
* Jim Cramer is very correct, the market is resilient.
* Breadth was positive -- almost the mirror image of yesterday's session (1,578 advancers/1,358 decliners on the NYSE).
* Bonds continue to deliver the message of slowing growth with the 10-year U.S. note yield at 2.59% (+4 basis points on the day).
* Banks were the world's fair -- led by Citigroup (C) and even Wells Fargo (WFC) (my bid was not hit) managed to be +2% (I had friendly comments on the name in my opening missive).
* In terms of individual stocks, Disney (DIS) reversed yesterday's +$2/share gain. I added small to my short (though I incorrectly said I had no trades today earlier).
* Basic materials and industrials continue to rally (Dow Inc. (DOW) and DowDuPont (DWDP) inching ahead).
* Asset managers -- the object of my disaffection -- moved higher.
* Amazon (AMZN) is the "world's fair." Google (GOOGL) superb.
* Netflix (NFLX) is a feature in the after hours, but frankly I couldn't care less about the name.
* Apple (AAPL) reversed from a strong early gain (its my Trade of the Week) and closed unchanged.
All in all, not a very meaningful day!
Long DOW, DWDP (large), WFC (large), C (large), AMZN (large), GOOGL (large)
Short TROW, BEN, AAPL
Not One!
Not a single trade today!
Trades
No trades yet today!
Subscriber Comment of the Day
From Neil "The Real Deal":
U.S. factory production stalled in March as motor-vehicle output declined, adding to signs of headwinds for manufacturing and economic growth around the world.
Manufacturing output was unchanged from February after falling a revised 0.3 percent, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday. That compared with the median estimate for a 0.1 percent increase in Bloomberg's survey of economists. Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, fell 0.1 percent, also trailing forecasts for a gain and following a 0.1 percent advance.
BAC's Quarter
I was listening to the conference call at Bank of America (BAC) .
The quarter was positively influenced by expense controls as capital markets activity was weaker than expected and, more importantly, net interest margins and income guidance was disappointing.
Surprisingly, the bank's loan loss provision was raised (to a six year high) even though non performing loans were contained - suggesting that we may have seen a peak in the improving picture for credit quality (which makes sense considering how late in the economic cycle we are in).
To me, an expense control-driven quarter is not as valuable as an organic-driven quarter.
I would expect the shares to drop by a (small) couple of percent today (maybe -1% to -3%) as the shares (and consensus) were anticipating better forward guidance.
I am a $28/share buyer.
The Tale of Two Stocks - Amazon and Wells Fargo
* Both Amazon and Wells Fargo can coexist in a portfolio committed over the long term
* Amazon has almost unlimited growth prospects
* Wells Fargo has an indisputably large deposit base and franchise
* Consider timeframes and reward v. risk, always
Amazon (AMZN) and Wells Fargo (WFC) .
One a winner, a relentless disruptor that will continue to dominate e-commerce and will likely face a dramatic expansion in margins and a better than expected trajectory of least-squared EPS growth. (This trajectory has been articulated well by Jim "El Capitan" Cramer's "When The Death Star Strikes"). With 45 buy recommendations and zero sell recommendations, Amazon's stock is not undiscovered.
The other, a loser, beaten up by its competitors and by management's incompetence, arguably worsened by its fraudulent attitude towards some of its customers. (Here is the 1Q2019 conference call transcript.) The bank had the indignity of being hit with a slew of downgrades following its lackluster first quarter report and weak net interest guidance - with Evercore, Goldman Sachs and Buckingham all lowering their price targets for Wells Fargo. (Over the next three months I expect more brokerages will be recommending sell than are recommending purchase - as lemmings, even of a research-kind, move in herds).
However, for me, an analysis of potential intermediate-term upside reward vs. downside risk, provides the rationale to own both of the stocks.
Amazon's business opportunities, as I have documented repeatedly in 2019. are superior to almost any company extant. With the existential regulatory and antitrust risks reduced, vertical and horizontal growth for this early adopter seems unparalleled.
Wells Fargo, by contrast, has still maintained (throughout all its problems) a large consumer deposit base which, in the fullness of time, can make up for a lot of past organizational and operational sins - that franchise is the essence of the bullish case for the banks. This will be especially true when interest rates "normalize" and net interest margins and income expand - which I guarantee all of you will happen if one hold's to an intermediate term time frame and view of the shares. The bank's large deposit base is at the heart of the franchise's intermediate- to longer- term profit prospects. In the interim interval I can afford to wait as a near 4% dividend yield supports the stock and brings the investor a front end "return" relative to the term structure of interest rates that exist today.
Despite Amazon's straight up move from late December (I placed the shares on my Best Ideas List on December 26th at $1383; its trading at $1853 in the pre-market session this morning) there is little question that it's share price will likely have rather large drawdowns along the way to my (hopeful) price targets of $3000 in 2021 and $5000 by 2025.
By contrast, Wells Fargo's share price of $46.90 will not likely face such volatility - countering what I expect to be an exciting but volatile ride in Amazon. Though my conservative Wells Fargo price target of $65-$70 in 2021 and $100-$110 in 2025 don't provide the percentage upside of Amazon - it is still rather robust from the base of today's low price.
Amazon and Wells Fargo - two distinctly different securities that hold the promise for attractive returns over the next five years.
Both stocks can coexist in a long-term investment portfolio.
Tweet of the Day
BREAK IN: Bank of America Posts Mixed Results
Bank of America's (BAC) EPS results were mixed -- not strong enough (in the aggregate) to continue to spur a higher stock price.
Yet, the small "blemishes" were not likely enough to hurt the stock much over the near term.
More after the conference call.