Skip to main content

DAILY DIARY

Chris Versace

Would You Believe...That's a Wrap

Alright folks, that's a wrap for today's trading and I'm going go under my Maxwell Smart Cone of Silence to catch up on some 10-Ks that were filed this week.

Thanks once again to Doug Kass and Jim Cramer for letting me play in the Diary sandbox, and a special shout out to the editorial team that make me look far smarter than I am.

Hopefully we can do it again down the road!

Position: None

The Latest CFO Survey

If you missed it over at TheStreet.com, be sure to catch Bradley Keoun's piece this afternoon that does a good job recapping the latest CFO survey conducted and published by Deloitte. Keep in mind the folks being surveyed are the ones who keep their eyes on the company coffers as well as its budget, which makes the revelation from 40% of CFOs saying their companies lack a "detailed defensive plan" eyebrow raising.

You can find that article here.

Position: None

Awaiting Landec Earnings

After the close we have earnings from health and wellness company Landec (LNDC) and business consulting company Resources Connection (RECN) . While not involved with either, between the two it will be Landec's revenue growth and pipeline of products that will be of interest given the shifting preference of consumers for those products. Inside the report, I'll be looking to assess Landec's exposure to organic and natural products, and if those are growing faster than overall revenue.

Position: None

Netflix Is My Go to for Video Content

As we get ready for the last hour of trading today, we're starting to see Wall Street share its March quarter expectations for a number of high flying stocks. One such example is Netflix (NFLX) and Credit Suisse expects 8.9 million paid net global additions, up 8% year over year, and revenue growth of 22% with an acceleration into the second half. That back half forecast likely reflects a combination of continued international subscriber growth and the soon to be enacted price hikes. 

For now the competitive landscape that many have been worried about has yet to meaningfully materialize. But with Apple's (AAPL) launching its streaming video service later this year, and more from Disney (DIS) next week, the second half of 2019 could be the start of a changing landscape. 

Make no mistake, at least for now, Netflix is my go to for video content with Amazon (AMZN) Prime Video and AT&T's (T) DirecTV now somewhat behind.

Position: The Trifecta portfolio owns AAPL, AMZN, T shares

Falling Firearm Sales Puts American Outdoor and Ruger on Watch List

The FBI has released its March 2019 National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background checks data, a closely tracked indicator for firearm sales.

Total NICS Background Checks were 2,644,851 for the month, up 28.8% sequentially, but down 4.4% year over year.

Stocks to watch on this news are American Outdoor Brands  (AOBC) and Sturm, Ruger & Co.  (RGR) . Not so much Dick's Sporting Goods  (DKS) as it continues to move away from the firearm business.

Position: None

Another troubling sign: Big Rig Orders Plunge

ACT Research, the go to source for heavy truck data, tweeted March Class 8 truck data.

Orders for new heavy-duty, big rig trucks plunged 66% in March compared to the same period last year, to 15,700 units.

Not good for heavy truck related companies Paccar Inc. (PCAR) , Navistar International Corp. (NAV) and Cummins Inc. (CMI) .

It's another sign of slack in the domestic economy.

Position: None

High-Tech Food Fight: The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend

My lunch time reading turned up the news that Walmart Inc. (WMT) is teaming with Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) to take the grocery fight via voice ordering to Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN and its Whole Foods, Alexa combination.

In a blog post, Walmart shared that starting this month, customers would be able to grocery shop through the Google Assistant by saying, "Hey, Google, talk to Walmart."

Kudos to Walmart for continuing to innovate and partner for the new digital world we live in. Following Amazon's recently announced wave of price cuts at Whole Foods, one has to wonder what all of this means for already pretty thin grocery margins. And to be clear, while Amazon and Walmart compete on several levels, Walmart lacks the profit and cash flow powerhouse that is Amazon Web Services.

According to data from Loup Ventures and published by Voicebot.ai, Amazon's Alexa had 52% global market share in 2018 vs. 32% for Google Home/Assistant. For now, that would appear to give Amazon the edge, but the reality is it comes down to the percentage of people using these devices to order groceries.

Now to see how this develops and other potential partnerships to follow.

And one last thing on this -- in an informal poll I conducted, more people are willing to give their credit card information to Amazon or Walmart than Google or Facebook.

Position: The Trifecta Portfolio is long AMZN, GOOGL shares

Lunch Time Reading

As I sit down to eat some lunch and gather my thoughts for the afternoon, here are some of the items I'll be reading up on: 

· Outgoing FDA chief Scott Gottlieb raises 'concern' over Walgreens Boosts Alliance, Inc. (WBA) , and CVS Health Corp. (CVS) selling CBD products;

· Mounting trade barriers may push up investment costs -IMF;

· Voice Shopping: Walmart Inc.'s (WMT) Newest Grocery Play;

· A.T. Kearney: 'Smaller scale' retail M&A deals replace mega deals of years past.

Enjoy your mid-day meal, and I'll see you back here shortly.

Position: None

Colleague From Across the Pond: Latest Brexit Deadline Drama "a Bloody Mess"

With the news that EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will not grant another short-term Brexit extension if a deal is not approved, I turned to my partner in crime Lenore Hawkins, who has a boots-on-the-ground view for what is happening across the pond. 

Here's what my U.K. colleague said:

"A bloody mess that has everyone wanting to bang their head against the wall. At this point (and this can change on an hourly basis), looks like we will get a "soft" Brexit whereby the U.K. remains part of the EU customs union, but that is going to seriously tick off a whole lot of folks who will say that it means Brussels continues to dictate fiscal policy. Being part of a customs union means that a nation does not get to determine its own tariffs, which was a significant point of contention for Brexiters. This drama feels more eternal than "Days of Our Lives".

Once again, great insight from Lenore, and, as I pointed out, there is no apparent super couple like Patch/Kayla -- or wherever the Roman/Marlena/John Black story line is these days -- that can rescue the situation... and as I look back on that, I'm thinking that perhaps I just shared too much?

Position: None

Apple Shares Roll Merrily Past News of 5G iPhone Delay

Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares are shrugging off the chatter that the first 5G iPhone may not debut until 2021 -- the consensus expectation had been 2020.

The comments stem from a UBS note out today:

"Barring settlement w/ Qualcomm (QCOM) in the next few months, field work suggests Apple is increasingly in jeopardy of being unable to ship a 5G iPhone in 2020."

First a word of caution regarding the Apple rumor mill -- it can run hot and cold, and in this case, we're six quarters or so away from a 2020 iPhone introduction.

That said, with iPhone demand being increasingly tied to replacement demand, should the 5G timetable slip, it will likely cause the herd to adjust their 2020 iPhone shipment expectations.

Clearly this is something to watch, especially as mobile network operators like AT&T Inc. (T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) start to deploy their 5G networks.

And with that in mind, Verizon has announced today that it is activating its 5G network in test cities for the one 5G smartphone that is available -- the Motorola Z3. I expect 5G to build over the coming quarters as it goes from testing to launch to mainstream, which should drive demand for networking and testing equipment, connected devices and chips along the way.

There will be many ways to play this, and in keeping with one of my favorite investing strategies -- buy the bullets, not the guns -- I'll be keeping my eyes on Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) and Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO) shares.

Position: Trifecta is long AAPL and T shares

Dell Jumps on the OLED Bandwagon

I'm not sure if this qualifies as "breaking news" but I just read that Dell (DELL)  has added an OLED display to its notebook configurator tool for its Alienware M15 Gaming laptop.

While this is just one model, and could be the first of several either at Dell or across the industry, it opens a new demand channel for organic light emitting diode displays, which means more demand Trifecta Stocks holding Universal Display's (OLED) chemicals and IP licensing business.

Position: Trifecta Stocks is long OLED shares

Toyota's Influence Grows in Electric Vehicles

It seems that a week doesn't go by without some Tesla (TSLA) related news. Well today, would be electric vehicle competitor Toyota Motor (TM) announced two developments on its part to promote the use of electrified vehicles.

First, Toyota said that it will grant royalty-free licenses on nearly 24,000 patents it holds (including some pending applications) for vehicle electrification-related technologies.

Second, Toyota will provide fee-based technical support to other manufacturers developing and selling electrified vehicles when they use Toyota's motors, batteries, PCUs, control ECUs, and other vehicle electrification system technologies as part of their powertrain systems.

Now this is a rather interesting development in my book that looks to grow Toyota's influence in the electric vehicle ecosystem, potentially transforming it into an arms merchant as well as a soldier in the fight.

To me it seems there are at least a few factors that have been holding back the adoption of electric vehicles. One is price, the need for a network of charging stations to service these vehicles, and the technology for a quick charge so one is not standing by for hours in order to drive a few hundred miles. On the price front, Toyota's move could help lead to lower prices, while also ensuring its position within the industry... if competitors are willing to bite on the offer.

The timing on this is also interesting given the April 19 Tesla Investor Day....

I'll be watching Twitter to see what if anything Elon has to say about all of this.

Position: None

Housing Stocks Homework

File under more homework to do.

In addition to all the other happenings, this morning also brings us the weekly mortgage application data. In it, we find the latest weekly mortgage application volume surged 18.6% from the previous week and 28% from a year ago, and refinance applications jumped 58% year over year.

What we're seeing at work here is the fall in mortgage rates year-over-year, which has followed the drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield:

Image placeholder title

Now it's time to roll up the sleeves and determine what this may mean at the margin for the housing stocks. Given the market environment we're in, which tends to punish misses and lower guidance and reward upside surprises, this bears investigating.

Home builders to examine include Toll Brothers (TOL) , DR Horton (DHI) and PulteGroup (PHM) , to name a few. Those also happen to be among the Top Builders for 2018 listed by Builder Magazine

Position: None

More on That CAT Downgrade

Chad Dillard, the equity research analyst at Deutsche Bank who downgraded Caterpillar (CAT) shares to Hold with a $128 price target this morning was just on CNBC. Here's the quick rationale behind the action: 

  • He expects earnings estimates to fall after backlog starts to decline;
  • The U.S. over-saturated with construction equipment;
  • He sees a slowdown in China and Europe.
Position: None

March Private Sector Jobs

According to ADP, 129,000 private sector jobs were created in March. I could go through the breakdown, but ADP has a graphic that will do the job for us:


Now for the context and perspective chart, which is also from ADP:


Image placeholder title
Image placeholder title

That's a sharp drop in the speed of job creation, and is another proof point of the slowing domestic economy. Candidly, it seems more in line with the March IHS PMI data than that from ISM, but conflicting data is the norm for investors and it means not relying on any one data point. Rather it's about triangulating them and assessing probabilities and in this case it means the job market is weakening. Some of this is due to the mismatch between worker skill sets and employer needs, which will likely be confirmed in the next JOLTS report.

But given the timing of the data, it also likely reflects employer uncertainty given the slowing speed of the economy and the other headwinds we are facing. In my book, this is something we will hear more about during the soon to be upon us March quarter earnings season. My expectation is we will be seeing cautious guidance being issued.

Position: None

Checking on Aurora Cannabis

I just mentioned one of my partners here at TheStreet, now let's wheel about and mention 'Sarge' Guilfoyle who sat in this very seat yesterday. In the Stocks Under $10 portfolio, he's been the man in charge of the weed stocks positions and he's done a great job with Aurora Cannabis (ACB) and KushCo Holdings (KSHB) , so I'm rather interested to hear what he thinks of Aurora filing a shelf offering for up to $750 million. 

Position: None

Amazon at $3,000?

Boisterous Bobby Lang, my good friend with whom I co-manage Trifecta Stocks, shot me a quick message a few minutes ago regrading a note on Amazon (AMZN) , which we own in the portfolio. It seems Jefferies is out with comments today saying the company's road map could lead the shares to $3,000 over the next two years. 

Yes, my eyes popped at that price target, and it will require looking into the assumptions being made by Jefferies to see how realistic it is. That said, Amazon continues, in my opinion, to have a number of tailwinds pushing on its different business as it expands it geographic reach and product scope. To me the two key upside drivers to watch in the near-term will be PillPack, the online pharmacy business it bought last year, and federal government contracts at Amazon Web Services. In terms of upside to earnings expectations and price targets, those could have a large impact over the next two years.

Position: None

GameStop's Pain

GameStop (GME) shares are getting hit with the ugly stick today, with a few downgrades and price target cuts to $5-$10 depending on the firm. I've long had my concerns with this company as gaming shifts from the physical (cartridge, CD, DVD) to download and now streaming.

With Apple's (AAPL) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) announced streaming services, as well as one reportedly being tested by Microsoft (MSFT) , I see more pain ahead for GameStop. If I'm right over the long-term, it will mean more empty mall stores that need to be filled.

Position: None

Let's Get Started!

Alright folks, we've got a slew of things driving the market in general and stocks in particular this morning. As we get ready to kick the day off, futures are up nicely following the late night headlines that the U.S. and China are moving closer to a final trade agreement.

We've also got a CEO exit at Stocks Under $10 holding Blue Apron (APRN) , popping those shares in pre-market trading and a downgrade of Caterpillar (CAT)  due to (I'm paraphrasing here) a synchronized collapse in global growth, according to Deutsche Bank.

All that and the March ADP Employment around the corner. Go grab that coffee and let's get started for the day ahead.

Position: APRN shares are owned by Stocks Under $10
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-35.66%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-16.42%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+8.55%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+10.96%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-29.53%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-18.03%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-27.61%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+28.72%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+62.60%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+74.40%