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DAILY DIARY

Bret Jensen

Here Comes the (Long) Weekend

It was great to sit in for Doug Kass on the Daily Diary today. There was a lot of lively commentary on the market, Amazon's (AMZN) pullout from NYC and politics.

Stocks ended up nicely across the board as we head into the long holiday weekend. Hopefully next week we see even more progress on the U.S./China trade front so this rally can continue.

Also, there was some Brexit progress late this week. Pro-Brexit conservatives appear willing to back a five-year backstop with the EU, which should help a Brexit deal gather some momentum as we get close to the March 29 exit date, which I fully expect to be pushed back before all is said and done.

I hope the entire Real Money Pro community has a long and relaxing weekend planned. See you next time!

Position: None

Good News Ahead of the 3-Day Weekend

Not much movement in the overall indices since our last update. Solid day for the markets as trade talks seem to be advancing, and hopefully investors will see some sort of deal in the near future. This would remove a major overhang for the markets and help global growth, which has been under pressure in recent quarters, as well.

News flow is light before the three-day weekend. Oil is up some one and a half percent today and has had a nice week. The energy sector has also had a strong performance on the week. The University of Michigan survey on the five to 10-year outlook prints a record low 2.3% level. Good to see the February Consumer sentiment come in higher than expected across the board today.

Position: None

Stocks Higher, U.S./China Progress, FDA and Drug Development

Stocks are pretty level to where they were an hour into the open. Even contentious press coverage as President Trump announced a national emergency for additional border measures could not derail the rally very much.

Markets are now banking on a memorandum of understanding to be reached in the U.S./China trade talks next week.

All 11 sectors in the S&P are up today and are led by the financials.

The FDA continues to make impressive progress in streamlining drug development. Today they announced the issuance of final updated guidance for gene therapy and cell therapy developers. These rules were first put up for comment late in 2017. This is just the latest in positive developments under agency head Scott Gottlieb. He's one of the best appointments of the Trump administration, and has 'moved the chains' considerably despite flying under the radar.

Position: None

Amazon Quits New York and the Fallout Is Intense

Progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China is enough to overcome some disappointing reads on the economy (December retail sales, January industrial production). The Dow is up over 300 points in early going as we try to close out the trading week on an up note.

Lots of fallout and chatter about Amazon (AMZN) pulling out of NYC for its second HQ along, despite $3 billion in tax incentives, the full backing of the governor, mayor and state legislature. This still wasn't enough to overcome local resistance from the likes of AOC and unions. Gone are 25,000 jobs paying an average of $150,000. Real estate prices in Long Island City also will take a substantial hit.

From my perch here in Manhattan's East Village, one has to be concerned about how business unfriendly the city has become in recent years. This is leading to a continued migration of business and the affluent out of the state, and having impacts on the state budget as well. It does say something that NY State has a budget nearly twice as big as Florida which has almost two million more people.

I'm seeing some technical breakouts in some small caps I hold today, including Inovalon (INOV) and Quotient Limited (QTNT) , which are hitting 52-week highs and showing considerable strength.

Position: Long INOV, QTNT

Newell Sinks, Gold Companies Mixed

Pre-market futures have crept up over the past hour, mainly on some encouraging signs around the U.S./China talks which likely will get more serious as they continue in Washington next week.

Brexit talks continue to hit consistent hiccups which is increasing uncertainty on how or if the UK will leave the European Union. I feel for Prime Minister May as I think I'd rather herd cats than the task she has been assigned, and so far, has failed to accomplish. This needs to move forward for the UK's sake. Real estate investment in the city of London is down some 75% due to uncertainty and by several metrics, the English economy is at its weakest levels since the financial crisis. On the bright side, thanks to the fall in the currency, it is getting downright cheap to visit my good mate in Kensington.

Fourth quarter earnings reports continue to flow in this week. Today, it appears Newell Brands (NWL) will be under pressure due to disappointing guidance. The shares are down more than 10% in pre-market trading.

Two gold stocks look like they will be going in opposite directions today. Set to rise is Yamana Gold (AUY) as production tops expectations. The shares of Gold Fields (GFI) will be heading in the opposite direction as production disappoints.

Position: None

Pinch Hitting for Doug Kass: Let's Get Started!

It is good to be standing in for Doug Kass this morning.

It looks like a new partial government shutdown will be avoided. It also appears the POTUS will declare a national emergency to implement more barriers than what was funded in the spending package. This effort will be tied up in courts for several quarters if not years, but at least a shutdown isn't going to happen and that will be a relief for the market.

On the trade front, The U.S. Commerce Department is set to meet a Sunday deadline to deliver its recommendations to the POTUS on whether imported vehicles and parts pose a national security risk, as well as options on how to address the issue. Hopefully this goes nowhere as this not what the market needs. I know this is being used as coercion to get the Europeans to level the playing field in this space as we pay a much higher tariff on auto parts and cars going there than their imports coming here. This is something that should have been rectified soon after the Cold War ended. However, there should be better ways to address and hindsight being 20/20 I would have engaged Europe to present a more united front against China, which has been completely skirting the rules of trade for decades without much consequence. Just one man's opinion.

Would love to hear from the small business folks in the Real Money Pro community this morning. I am constantly talking to small business owners in Miami, Phoenix and NYC. It seems the biggest problem right now in the economy based on myriad conversations is finding qualified people to fill open jobs. Also hearing how higher minimum wage laws in many states are squeezing margins, especially in retail and restaurants. Would love to hear any comments and observations on the business front from this important driver of the economy today.

Retail sales took the biggest monthly plunge since 2009 but trade talks are set to continue in D.C. next week between the U.S. and China. The two news items appear to be cancelling each other out and pre-market futures are currently flat.

So, what is on everyone's minds this morning?

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-32.96%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-16.60%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+9.52%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+13.70%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-22.80%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-15.13%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-27.76%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+32.98%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+65.61%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+77.63%