While I am not a curator of this historical information, my strong belief is that today's remarkably minute and narrow range in the S&P Index today is at or among the smallest daily ranges in history.

As a consequence I have little to summarize beyond my posts in my diary during the day.

Thanks for reading my diary and enjoy the evening.

Allergan (AGN) acts badly for the second day in a row (-$4 or -2% on the day),  but I don't see any news that would explain the drop.

Still searching, though.

Barring the search finding any negatives I will be adding at around $225 - $227.

"It's worse than tulip bulbs. It wont end well. Someone is going to get killed."

- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan

In yesterday's Delivering Alpha conference Jamie Dimon went on to say if one of his traders got involved in bitcoin he would "fire them in a second -- for two reasons, its against JPMorgan's rules and they are stupid. Both are dangerous."

In today's trading, the price of bitcoin has declined by about -5% to $3,940. About ten days ago bitcoin traded at above $5,000.

To me, I don't give two bits about bitcoin -- and I am of the belief that the price of bitcoin could one day sell at twenty five cents, two bits.

I don't view bitcoin as a viable "asset class" -- and would not trade or invest in bitcoin.

I cautioned on Bitcoin in mid August ("Bitcoin or Woodstock")  and, again on September 8. 

My pal Peter Boockvar comments on the bond auction:

After mediocre 3 and 10 yr note auctions, the 30 yr bond auction was not good either but was the least soft of the 3. The yield of 2.79% was just a hair above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.21 was slightly below the one year average of 2.28. Lastly, dealers got stuck with 34% of the auction, a bit above the 12 month average of 30%.

Bottom line, as said yesterday, at least for now if these auctions could speak they would say yields got too low for buyer tastes. We can cite some reasons with: 1) less worry about North Korea, 2) debt ceiling pushed out, 3) the ability to more firmly quantify the impact from the hurricanes, 4) lift over the past few days in European sovereign yields, 5) maybe a delayed response to the 7.5% rise in industrial commodity prices over the past 3 months with other worries alleviated, 6) and maybe some positioning ahead of the beginning of QT next week.

I just don't think analyzing the US Treasury market here is as simple as having an inflation and growth viewpoint. If doing so, I agree that the curve should continue to flatten. The Fed is tightening, US economic growth remains ordinary. On the other hand, I still can't discount what could be a large impact from ECB tapering next year and what that could mean to US yields at the same time the Fed will be less of a buyer in the Treasury market.

The market/economic bulls highlighted the strength in Dr. Copper a month ago.

Copper has hit a three-week low since then.

Crickets.

More fake news (commentary).

Apple (AAPL) analyst Toni Sacconaghi is discussing the issue of smartphone demand elasticity on Fast Money now.

This is a subject I pinpointed in late July 25 which is an under discussed issue at it relates to Apple's ability to continue its growth curve.

Here are my two bits from then:

How High Can You Go? Steep Product Prices Could Ding These Stocks

Jul 25, 2017 ' 8:05 AM EDT

"Price elasticity of demand (PED or Ed) is a measure used in economics to show the responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity demanded of a good or service to a change in its price, ceteris paribus. More precisely, it gives the percentage change in quantity demanded in response to a one percent change in price (ceteris paribus).

It is a measure of responsiveness of the quantity of a raw good or service demanded to changes in its price.[1] The formula for the coefficient of price elasticity of demand for a good is (found here):

The ... formula usually yields a negative value, due to the inverse nature of the relationship between price and quantity demanded, as described by the "law of demand".[3] For example, if the price increases by 5% and quantity demanded decreases by 5%, then the elasticity at the initial price and quantity = -5%/5% = -1."

--Price Elasticity of Demand, Wikipedia

From my perch the carnage in retail goes well beyond the disruptive influences of Amazon (AMZN) . The income and net worth gap between the haves and the have nots that I originally cited in a Barron's piece, "The Threat of Screwflation," has not been addressed by Washington, D.C., and little in current policy is likely to reduce the gap.

The costs of the necessities of life (food, shelter, insurance, etc.) continue to rise as wage and salary growth lags.

Moreover, with "Peaks Everywhere" I am far less optimistic than the consensus is on the trajectory of domestic economic growth in 2017-19.

In the face of these realities and influences, a number of companies continue to raise prices of their products to levels that may cut demand.

Here is a partial list of products and the companies that deliver those products that may be vulnerable to reduced demand stemming from ever-higher product offering prices in the years ahead:

* Apple's (AAPL) newest smartphone iteration, the iPhone 8, is expected to be priced in the range of $1,100 to $1,200.

* Coffee maker Starbucks' (SBUX) offerings have grown ever more costly relative to alternatives.

* Theme park prices such as those at Disney (DIS) have risen to unaffordable levels to many Americans and non-Americans who are visiting their facilities.

* Home prices (think PulteGroup (PHM) et al) are back at unaffordable levels last seen in 2007. 

Housekeeping item.

With bears an endangered species, and given my negative market outlook, I have been looking to trim some of my larger positions (on strength) -- much like I recently did in Hartford Financial (HIG) and DowDuPont (DWDP) . 

I basically want to size positions properly in preparation for a possible market decline.

The only partial sale that makes sense to me at this point in time, is in Twitter (TWTR) -- as the shares have recently risen from under $15.70 to $18.30.

I still have a lot of confidence in this investment, from a longer term standpoint, but I want to be opportunistic and, as I am prone to do, I am trading around that long investment now.

Consequently, I have moved from a large -sized to medium -sized position in Twitter at $18.34.

I plan to stick with this investment, at the reduced size (still medium), through thick and thin now.

And, if a market drawdown does ever transpire, I am in a position to increase my position back to large-sized on weakness (under $17).

Housekeeping item.

Yesterday's purchase (2x during the day) of Apple (AAPL) weekly $162.50 puts had an intentional finite holding period -- as the puts expire on Friday.

I am satisfied with the gain of +$2 in this very short term trade -- a trade which, as mentioned, was highly speculative and something I don't do as a steady diet.

Considering the restrictive timeframe of only two and a half more trading days, I have decided to sell the puts at around $4.20 just now, rather than wait (nervously) and be subject to the vagaries of the market over the balance of the week.

With the 10-year U.S. note yield at 2.184% -- up one basis point on the day and close to my short-term objective of 2.20% -- I have taken my profit in my Trade of the Week, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) , with a sale just now at $34.52.

Remember, it is the Trade of the Week, and not the Investment of the Week!

Moreover, leveraged ETFs are always trades -- and short-term rentals, not long-term leases -- because of the price decay.

I remain short iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) -- that's an investment!

Lows of the day for Apple (AAPL) .

It's down around $2.35 at this writing and our weekly Apple $162.50 puts are trading at $4.15 (in at about $2.45).

I added to my SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) short (again) at $250.04, slightly higher than where I shorted yesterday morning.

Paul "The" Price "Is Right" makes an excellent point on the value of the face recognition feature in the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone X, which I (and many others) stupidly didn't think about! 

Great observation, Paul!

Let's look at and update a potentially important sentiment indicator.

The CNN Fear & Greed Indicator has turned greedy in the last two weeks.

Last week my pal Vitaliy Katsenelson wrote a thoughtful analysis of Apple (AAPL) that he has permitted me to share with all of you:

New iPhones are not enough to keep Apple's stock going, it needs a new category

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

It is hard to find a bigger Apple stock cheerleader than me. I've been writing Apple stock love poems for years. For a long time, it was easy to love the shares because they were unloved by others and it was cheap.

Until recently, when Apple stock was still trading in the low $100s and at single-digit multiples, we were buying current product categories at a discount and were not paying for future product categories.

At today's price that is not the case anymore. That is true with any company - the more expensive the stock gets, the more clairvoyance investors need to discern the company's future growth.

At Apple's size it is very hard for the company to increase its earnings significantly. Macs, iPads, and even iPhones are mature products.

The iPhone may have a few growth spurts left, but not many. It is facing an unavoidable headwind: the elongation of its replacement cycle. The iPhone improved substantially over the years, but as the i-marvels piled up, the incremental improvements that motivated people to buy a new phone every two years or so became less and less significant.

At some point the iPhone will face the fate of the iPad - its replacement cycle long in the tooth and sales stagnant and declining.

Will the iPhone's sales stop growing in 2018, or 2020? I don't know, but from a long-term perspective of the company's valuation, a few years don't make that much difference.

(A new iPhone is expected to be unveiled next week. The stock fell slightly Wednesday on concern supply disruptions could cause shipping delays with the new phone.)

Services is the only segment that can grow at a double-digit rate for a considerable period of time, but it only represents 13 percent of revenue. Even the Apple Watch doesn't really move the needle.

They need another genius

But can Apple come up with new product categories? Let's ponder on this question in the context of the following quote:

"Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see." - Arthur Schopenhauer

Apple has a lot of talented people designing and redesigning products in the categories that Apple already dominates. They are hitting a lot of targets no else can hit. Apple's brand is as healthy as ever, and so is product satisfaction.

However, to create a new category of products Apple needs to "hit targets no one else can see," and this requires a genius. But in an organization of this size with a lot of bright and talented people, it also requires a benevolent dictator - someone able to make bold, unconventional decisions (and own them), someone who in addition to everything else is able to inspire others to create what they may think is impossible. Yes, I am referring to the one and only Steve Jobs, he of the "reality distortion field."

Here is an instance that comes to mind: Jobs asked his engineers to come up with a touchscreen computer - a tablet. They did. It looked like a bulky version of today's iPad. Steve looked at and said "Let's put the tablet on ice," then refocused the company on miniaturizing that tablet and making a phone instead.

It is important to remember that at the time, though Apple was financially healthy, it was not swimming in cash the way it does today. Jobs made a benevolent dictator-like decision: He diverted engineers who were working on the MacOS to work on what would become the iPhone OS, causing the late release of some Mac products. And only years later, after the iPhone was a raging success, Apple brought the iPad back to life. That was Jobs' Apple.

Now let's visit Tim Cook's Apple. The New York Times ran an in-depth article unearthing why Apple has (so far) failed to come up with an electric self-driving car. These few sentences jumped out at me:

"But the car project ran into trouble, said the five people familiar with it, dogged by its size and by the lack of a clearly defined vision of what Apple wanted in a vehicle. Team members complained of shifting priorities and arbitrary or unrealistic deadlines."

Nokia spent a lot on R&D too

Even Jobs admitted that Cook is not a "product man." Cook doesn't have "the vision," and thus he doesn't have the authority to be a benevolent dictator. Nor does he have the charisma to project and maintain a reality distortion field.

Today Apple spends almost $12 billion on R&D - double what it spent just a few years ago. But as outside observers, we really don't know where this money is going. Or more importantly, how productively it is being spent. I vividly remember how Nokia was increasing its R&D spend every year during the last years of its dumb-phone dominance, but all that R&D did not bring forth new products that would have saved the company from its eventual demise. Apple is not facing Nokia-like collapse, but the R&D argument still stands: R&D spend doesn't always equal great new products.

The NY Times article said that Apple curtailed its ambition to make a car and is now focusing solely on self-driving technology. In other words, Apple is basically pulling out of the electric car space (at least for now).

If Apple develops and licenses its self-driving technology, it will recover some of its losses on investments made to date. But it will not be able to take advantage of the significant competitive advantage that comes with its incredible brand, its distribution network - hundreds of stores (potential car dealerships) sprinkled all over the world - its know-how in battery management, its design prowess, and its i-ecosystem.

We still own a little bit of Apple stock but have sold most of what we owned at current prices. Maybe Apple's augmented reality products will become a huge success, or maybe the company is working on a brand new category of products that we have not even imagined. It is all possible.

In making investment decisions you never have perfect information. Apple is no exception. At today's valuation we are paying for genius - Apple's ability to successfully create and dominate a new, large product category. While the company is run by very talented people who will do a great job getting us excited about the categories of products they are already in, the company's genius died with Steve Jobs.

Here is some color from the sell-side on Apple's (AAPL) product launches yesterday:

• RBC notes this year's event marked one of the most highly anticipated product announcements in recent years, and from a product perspective, the company did not disappoint. We think the new form factor and net new features/capabilities (wireless charging, AR enablement, 3-D sensing) added to the flagship device will drive accelerated device upgrades within AAPL's install base combined with increased switching activity. Notably, the iPhone X will not begin shipping until November 3; the later than anticipated launch date could partially shift new device unit/ASP lift from Dec-qtr to Mar-qtr. Fundamentally, they think the excitement surrounding the new form factor/features will drive increased unit demand in addition to mix shift toward the higher-end device ($999), which should enable one of the strongest iPhone cycles in recent years.
• Needham notes that given the size of AAPL's supply chain, it is nearly impossible for them to keep secrets. As a result, nearly everything announced yesterday had been leaked ahead of time. The 3 upside value drivers for shareholders (their view) were: 1) a broader range of iPhones with two 8- iPhones plus 1 iPhone X (said as 10 not X); 2) a wider choice of price points for AAPL's smartphone product line; and, 3) upgrades to watch and TV which add stickiness (ie, lower churn) to the AAPL ecosystem if they become more widely adopted. Each of these suggests valuation upside from wider consumer adoption, higher ASPs and margins, and falling churn (ie, longer consumer payment streams to AAPL).
• Mizuho notes that everything about the phone seems in-line with speculation. They find delayed release of the product and high price points to be incrementally negative for the company as it will likely limit any near-term upside to estimates. Overall, with consensus calling for iPhone unit/ASP growth of 14% and 6%, respectively, for FY18, we see limited upside to estimates. Further, with the stock trading at around 15x FY18 consensus EPS estimates (11x FCF), they think valuation fully reflects robust expectations.

Suppliers:

o Cowen notes that while AAPL's announcement was largely expected, their supply chain work indicates a significant increase in iPhone X units for DecQ (1/2 of ~91MM) after remaining absent for most of CQ3 that indicates a later, but more significant iPhone ramp than iPhone 7/7+. Based on their checks, most interesting read-throughs include MU, TER, AVGO, QRVO, SWKS and OLED. Increases in DRAM and NAND content per SKU are overall positive for MU (Outpeform, $34.29) and memory-levered SPE names like AMAT (Not Rated), LRCX (Not Rated) and to a lesser extent, ICHR (Outperform, $23.65) and UCTT (Market Perform, $24.00). They think AAPL's new application processor, the A11 Bionic, is a modest, but not significant, positive for TER (Not Rated) as the addition of two more high efficiency cores vs. the A10 Fusion on the iPhone 7 could drive increased tester demand. iPhone X marks the start of a transition that should see AAPL move to all AMOLED displays (vs. LCD). LG Display (LPL/034220) has been the supplier of flexible AMOLEDs for the Watch, and should benefit from the refresh, although incremental related royalties may be more noticeable for OLED.

o Mizuho notes that Apple news is positive for memory suppliers (MU, WDC) as it eliminates 32GB and 128GB models, now offering only 64GB and 256GB NAND densities. Wireless charging on all three is positive for AVGO. The 8/8 Plus launch on September 22 is ~ a week later than last years 7/7 Plus with the X a month and a half behind (Nov. 3), which could potentially push some component supply chain orders into the DecQ and even into the typically weaker MarQ for this "supercycle."

"I gotta feeling (ooooo hoooo) that tonight's gonna be a good night

That tonight's gonna be a good night

That tonight's gonna be a good, good night..

Go out and smash it (smash it)

Like Oh My God (like Oh My God)

Jump off that sofa (c'mon)

Let's get get off

Fill up my cup (drink)

Mazel Tov (l'chaim)

Look at her dancing (move it, move it)

Just take it off

Let's paint the town (paint the town)

We'll shut it down (shut it down)

Let's burn the roof

And then we'll do it again."

--Black Eyed Peas, "I Gotta Feeling" 

Yesterday was quite a day for the Cleveland Indians, who won their 20th straight game to match the American League record for most consecutive wins, and for two retailers, Dillard's Inc. (DDS) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) , which were buoyed by the growing possibility of Nordstrom making a deal with private equity firm Leonard Green & Partners to go private. 

* With 89 wins, the Cleveland Indians now lead the American League Central Division by 13.5 games over the Minnesota Twins.

* And Dillard's and Nordstrom each registered solid gains -- Dillard's up more than $4 a share and Nordstrom up nearly $3 -- on reports that Nordstrom is taking steps to go private.

However, for Apple Inc. (AAPL) and its iPhone X launch, it was not quite as exciting. The shares slipped by more than $1 after making an all-time high in an initial knee-jerk response to the iPhone X product launch, the introduction of the Series 3 watch which will support cellular connectivity, and the 4K Apple TV.

Apple continues to deliver an expensive smartphone relative to its peers, with many features that are already available from its competition and most of which were anticipated, including face recognition, a full-screen interface and no home button.

The only exception to reality versus anticipation was the later-than-expected availability, which is toward the end of the year (orders will be accepted on Oct. 27 and deliveries are slated for Nov. 3). As a result, analysts could take 3 million to 4 million iPhones out of their December quarter projections and reduce full-year 2018 estimates by about $0.40 a share.

However, the new Apple phone will provide an animated poop emoji so you can talk crap to your friends.

The starting price for the 64GB model of the iPhone X is $999 and $1,149 for the 256GB model. The Apple smartphone continues to be a high-priced aspirational product accompanied by a remarkably effective marketing effort that is stretching its status symbol appeal. However, I see little incremental to the latest product offerings, leaving room for disappointment relative to optimistic expectations. (It is why I initiated an Apple put position yesterday morning and added to that position when the stock was up $2 early in the afternoon). 

The expectations of an Apple replacement super-cycle accompanied by higher unit volumes and much higher average selling prices, leading to expectations of a "hockey stick" of earnings growth in the coming fiscal year coupled with a general confidence in sustainable growth from there, have spurred a rise of more than 50% in Apple's one-year forward price/earnings multiple in the last 1 1/2 years.

I clearly have underestimated the strength of and the confidence in the Apple franchise over the last year. Recognition of this has led me to maintain more of a trading-oriented short position, whereas years ago I had more of an investment short position, which proved successful. Nevertheless, I continue to believe that these aggressive "going forward" expectations for Apple and the company's current valuation remain too ambitious.

Bottom Line

Yesterday was a good day, indeed ... for many of us.

My pal Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst with The Lindsey Group, addresses the following subjects this morning -- the U.K., housing and sentiment:

A day after August CPI in the UK printed up 2.9% y/o/y vs 2.6% in July, it was reported today that for the 3 months ended July wages ex bonus' were up by 2.1% y/o/y. The combination is disappointingly referred to as a decline in real wages or a drop in purchasing power. Job growth though remains robust. The UK economy added 181k in the 3 months ended July, well above the forecast of 150k and the most since December 2015. This helped to lower their unemployment rate by one tenth to 4.3% and you have to go back to June 1975 to see that rate previously. The more timely August jobless claims figure saw a decline for the 2nd straight month. The inflation and jobs data comes before the BoE meeting tomorrow where never before in the history of BoE policy dating back to 1694 has it been this extreme. We also know that NONE of the dire forecasts post Brexit have come anywhere close to coming to fruition. It was these forecasts that precipitated another rate cut and an expansion of QE which included the nationalization of corporate bonds soon after the Brexit vote. There wasn't much of a market response to today's data as the pound is a touch lower after yesterday's sharp rally. Some think lower wage growth keeps the BoE on hold even longer but instead it should make the BoE more inclined to hike in order to get back control of inflation. The 2 yr gilt yield is unchanged after an 11 bps two day rise. Rate hike odds for tomorrow are at 10%.

According to the MBA, the average 30 yr mortgage rate fell another 3 bps on the week to 4.03%, the lowest since mid November. This helped to goose purchases by 11% w/o/w off near the lowest level since February. The y/o/y gain was 6.7%. Refi's were up by 9% but remain down by 35% y/o/y. Bottom line, after a slew of recent mediocre data on housing transactions in light of robust pricing, this was an encouraging rebound in purchases to a 3 month high. We'll soon see what the impact of the hurricanes will have on the Houston and Florida housing markets.

Captured before the past two day stock market rally to new highs, Investors Intelligence said Bulls fell to 47.1 from 49.5 last week. Bears were up by 1.1 pts to 20.2 which happens to be the highest since late November and the bull/bear spread is the smallest since the US election. This year we've seen that when Bulls get to around 60, the stock market tops out, when it falls back to around 50, it rallies back. The CNN Fear/Greed indicator closed yesterday at 63 which is in the 'Greed' category after being in the 'Fear' one last week at 36. One month ago it sat in 'Extreme Fear' at 25. On Friday, the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index rose to the highest level since September 2000. They referred to this as a "new surge of optimism among US investors." This is the key internal component for those who pay attention to sentiment and for those who think this is 'the most hated bull market': "68% now say they are optimistic about the stock market's performance during the next year, matching the record high for the question from December 1999 and January 2000." Remember then? Human nature when it comes to markets never change. Imagine if Wal Mart initiated "Every day high prices." Would anyone show up?

The impact of China's attempt on Friday to stem the rally in the yuan which has also helped to strengthen the US dollar against other currencies is again putting pressure on industrial metals. Copper is down by 1.6% and back below $3.0. Zinc, nickel, lead, tin and aluminum prices are down too.

The other impact of China's move to eliminate the reserve requirement of banks doing business in FX forwards for clients is the sharp spike in the interbank offered rate in Hong Kong. On Monday it jumped by 78 bps from 1.51% to 2.29%. It fell about 20 bps yesterday but is up another 95 bps today to 3.05%. Chinese banks are taking advantage of higher rates on the mainland and pulling money from Hong Kong as they no longer need to hold these reserve requirements.