Skip to main content

DAILY DIARY

Bret Jensen

U.S. Steel is Glad This Week is Over

Let the weekend begin and may Day 2 and 3 of the NFL draft bring my Arizona Cardinals some undervalued gems on both sides of the bay. Great filling for Doug Kass over the past couple of days. Look forward to doing it again.

Fairly uneventful few day of trading as we close out April for the market. Hard to believe it is going to be May on Monday. Where does the time go? U.S. Steel (X) is glad week is finally over. Stock has gotten creamed since a disastrous first quarter on Tuesday. Macquarie which had upgraded the name to Neutral from Underperform on Monday with $30 price target reverses itself today and goes back to Underperform with a $18 price target. Few analysts were aware of how old and inefficient U.S. Steel's facilities are until quarterly conference call it seems.

It has been a good week for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)  as drug giant beats top and bottom line consensus with first quarter results yesterday. Today, Opdivo gets approval in Europe for certain types of head and neck cancer.

Have a good weekend, all.

Position: Long BMY

Radius Gives up Gains From Drug Approval

Been two fairly uneventful days of trading, as far as the market indexes go, sitting in for Doug Kass here on the Daily Diary. Major indices are slightly down as we head into the last two hours of the trading week.

Getting a few questions on Radius Health (RDUS)  today. The FDA approved its TYMLOS (abaloparatide) injection for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture this morning. Approval came two months sooner than expected.

The stock was initially up some 10%, but then fell to breakeven as news the drug will have a 'black box' label hit. However, from what I understand, this is the same label that Forteo from Eli Lilly (LLY)  has as well. Forteo is a leading treatment for this indication that TYMLOS is aiming at that compound does roughly $1.5 billion in revenue a year.

Cantor Fitzgerald has reiterated its Buy rating and $65 price target since the FDA approval this morning. Have also seen on StockTwits that Merrill Lynch has reissued Buy rating and $78 price target estimated peak sales of $800 million. However, I have not been able to confirm so far. Management will host a conference call on May 1st to go over approval prior to the market open. Added some shares at $39 today for what it worth.

Position: Long RDUS

Tech Holds Fast on Strong Quarterly Results

Markets slightly negative as we march into the last four hours of trading for the week.

REITs taking a hit today as rates not declining despite weaker than expected first quarter GDP reading. Lodging REITs particularly weak on soft guidance from Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) . Probably not a bad idea to add a few shares of Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT)  which is down some 2.5% in empathy. Company recently reported better than expected numbers, yields over six percent and has seen some recent insider buying as well.

Technology continues to buck downward trend in trading today helped by mostly better-than-expected quarterly results. Western Digital (WDC) one of several tech stocks having a nice day after besting the consensus. BAML also raises price target to $120 from $95 after quarterly numbers. Stifel Nicolaus also raises price target to $120 while Needham goes to $136.

Position: Long HT

Scanning the Mid-Morning Landscape

The market and 10-year Treasury yield are taking disappointing first-quarter GDP number in stride. The Chicago PMI came in stronger than expected and growth should rebound in the second quarter. Consumer spending was weak in first quarter, especially on big-ticket items. However, it should pick up in the second quarter thanks to spring and tax refunds.

Oil up a bit and Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) posted better-than-expected numbers, which all should help the energy sector in trading today.

Tech is enjoying good day on the back of great earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) . Biotech is flat, but keep an eye on Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) . The stock just broke the$10 level, but has failed a few times here in 2017. If it breaks through, I think this one could run up into its Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date for Dextenza in June.

Position: Long OCUL and GOOGL

A Look at Pre-Market Action, Including Qualcomm's Stumble

First-quarter GDP clocked in at 0.7% versus the consensus of 1.1%. I would take this with a grain of salt. Since the financial crisis, GDP always starts off the year at a miserly pace.

General Motors (GM) is up just 2% in pre-market action despite beating earnings estimates by a quarter a share on an increase in revenue of better than 10%.

Small biopharma Zogenix (ZGNX) might see some movement today. The company announced that the last patient has been randomized for a key Phase 3 trial for its compound ZX008 for the treatment of Dravet syndrome; this drug candidate has been fast tracked by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to treat Dravet. The stock also saw its first analyst activity of 2017 this morning as a five-star-ranked (TipRanks) analyst at Aegis Capital reiterated a Buy rating and a price target of $28 a share on the stock.

Its legal battle with Apple (AAPL) is causing Qualcomm (QCOM) to lower its fiscal third-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion from the previous range of $5.3 billion to $6.1 billion. The tech company also is lowering its third-quarter earnings guidance by 15 cents to 30 cents a share. The shares are down about 3% in pre-market trading.

Position: Long AAPL, GM, QCOM, ZGNX

Pinch Hitting for Day 2, Bret Jensen!

It's good to be sitting in for Doug Kass again today as we try to end the week on a high note. I also hope all were satisfied by their teams' pick(s) last night on the first day of the NFL draft. You have to be happy if you are a 49ers fan (I am not as my Cardinals play in that division) as they pulled off two coups and landed two anchors for what was the worst run defense in their long history. Cleveland also did well but still does not have a franchise QB. I don't know what the Bears were thinking giving up a haul to move up one spot and grab a QB at No. 2 when they paid big bucks in the offseason to bring in Mike Glennon. The stock market is hard enough to understand at times -- glad I am not a NFL GM.

We will continue to get a slew of earnings reports today and in the coming weeks. So far, so good, and the quarter is shaping up to deliver the best profit growth since 2011.

Politics could be a big factor for the market over the next few weeks. Hopefully we can avoid a government shutdown this weekend. All eyes will be on France on May 7 hoping the centrist candidate wins that nation's presidential election as predicted and France stays in the European Union. Europe, I am afraid, will continue to be a "watch item" over the next year. There is now talk of a united Ireland joining the EU while England negotiates to leave it. Also, watch Italy. It must hold an election by May 2018. The Five-Star Movement could well win, which would have ramifications for the EU and is a under- the-radar story for now.

So, what is on everyone's minds today?

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-35.66%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-16.42%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+8.55%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+10.96%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-29.53%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-18.03%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-27.61%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+28.72%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+62.60%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+74.40%