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DAILY DIARY

Bret Jensen

Lackluster Market on Tons of Earnings

Some good discussions today on the Daily Diary. Look forward to continuing the conversation tomorrow as we look to wrap up a solid week for equities. Market was lackluster today but had a ton of earnings reports to take into account. Not to mention Mr. Trump's Tax Plan outline that came out yesterday and a possible vote again on the replacement of the Affordable Care Act on Saturday -- Will believe that when I see it.

Testing firm Exact Sciences (EXAS)  was a big winner today as the stock was up some 25% on the day after easily beating quarterly expectations and lifting full year revenue guidance. Sales rose some 225% on a year-over-year basis driven by its Colonguard tests. Wish I would have pulled the trigger on this one earlier this year but never hit my bid. Genetic testing firm Invitae (NVTA)  which I do hold a significant position in is up some 50% on the year and should report its own results in two weeks or so.

US Steel (X)  gains on the day after a horrid week on back of big quarterly earnings miss. Deutsche Bank downgrades the name and cuts price target to $30 from $45 previously. JPMorgan defends rating and $46 price target on this producer as believes industry has huge friend in the Trump administration.

In addition to another wave of earnings reports, look forward to everyone's take on how their team did on the first day of the NFL draft tonight.

Position: Long NVTA

Market Turns Higher; Airlines Weak

Market has taken a turn for the better since our last update. All major indices are now in the green and oil has cut its loss today in half as well. Despite the recent fall in oil prices and some decent earnings report from the sector, airline stocks are one of the weakest parts of the market today. The trigger is American Airlines (AAL)  decision to raise salaries significantly for their pilots and other personnel. This is bringing back the memories of decades of lack of cost discipline, capacity constraint and out of control labor issues that bankrupted just about every airline at one time or another.

Grubhub GRUB  is up over 15% in trading today after very impressive quarterly results. 40% revenue growth as active diners increase 25% year-over-year. I just can't pull the trigger on this one as worry about the company's 'moat'. Where I live in downtown Miami, there are at least six competitors like GetMe that operate in same space.

Position: None

Mixed Market as Oil Pulls Back

It's a mixed market as we head to the noon hour ET. Nasdaq is the only major index in the green, while everything else is sporting mild losses. Not much movement as investors digest scores of earnings reports.

Some small-cap homebuilders have delivered better-than-expected results as noted in an earlier post. However, sector is down today as 30-year mortgage rates are back over 4% today.

Oil is having a decent pullback and sporting a $48 handle now. Energy sector is down some 2% on the day so far. Technology having a strong week. Any "tax holiday" in a tax reform package certainly would help industry given the hundreds of billions companies have stranded in their overseas operations.

Mexican ETFs are having a decent day after President Trump stated he won't terminate NAFTA for now. This sounds more and more like a negotiating ploy to apply some leverage. My guess is that some minor concessions will be offered by our trade partners, victory will be declared, a campaign pledge will be fulfilled and investors can move on to their next worry. I just refuse to believe anyone wants a trade war at the moment.

Position: None

A Trio of Stocks Up on Nice Results

The market is off to a decent start as investors try to digest scores of first-quarter earnings reports. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is just one of many large-cap drug and biotech companies reporting today. BMY shares are up as earnings and revenue easily surpassed estimates, powered by Opdivo growth. AbbVie (ABBV) also is up nicely. Its oncology product Imbruvica posted an almost 45% rise in year-over-year sales while Humira continues to see sales growth in the mid-teens

Auto electronics play Visteon (VC) is up some 5% in trading as the company just crushes top- and bottom- line consensus. I recently profiled and purchased the name as one of few remaining pure plays in this sub-sector after a few high-profile buyouts, and the stock had seen some insider buying of late as well.

Position: Long ABBV, BMY, VC

Early-Morning Earnings Extravaganza

It is hard to keep up with the flurry of first-quarter earnings reports hitting the wires this morning. Here are a few that caught my eye today.

Biotech stalwarts Amgen (AMGN) and Celgene (CELG) posted mixed results, while AbbVie (ABBV) seems to have beat both top- and bottom-line expectations. Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) appears to have posted the best results from a large biotech today as it blows through the consensus and is up some 4% in pre-market trading.

Small home builders seem to be delivering the goods this morning as both Meritage Homes (MTH) and Taylor Morrison (TMHC) beat on the top and bottom lines. There was very solid revenue growth at both companies, led by an almost 20% surge of sales at Taylor.

I must be the only person in the country who does not order pizza from Domino's Pizza (DPZ) judging from its quarterly results. Same-store sales domestically were up almost 10% year over year as the company easily topped top- and bottom-line consensus.

Futures are up slightly as earnings continue to be solid. It looks like first-quarter earnings will deliver 10% or better growth on the quarter, the best quarterly performance since 2011. Even excluding energy, earnings look like they are up 7.5% from a year ago -- a more-than-solid performance so far this quarter.

Position: Long ABBV, AMGN, CELG, TMHC

Your Pinch Hitter for Today, Bret Jensen!

As always, it is good to be sitting in for Doug Kass on the Daily Diary over the next two days. There is lots to talk about.

We have a flood of first-quarter earnings results that we can discuss. I will be looking to see if quarterly numbers from biotech stalwarts such as Celgene (CELG) finally can get the sector out of its relatively narrow trading range that this high-beta part of the market has been stuck in since mid-February.

The president released the outline of his tax reform plan on Wednesday. As a small business owner, I would be thrilled if the tax on my business income dropped to 15% and I would bring on another staff member or two if it did. I am also happy the "border tax" was not part of the package, as that brings additional complexity to an already-complicated code. It also would have ignited huge pushback and lobbying from industries that would be hurt by it.

I also wish the proposal would have offered more eliminations of deductions and loopholes to make the package more revenue-neutral. I don't see any way the corporate tax rate drops to 15%, but even slashing it to 25% would be a "yuge" improvement and make the United States more globally competitive as well as boost foreign investment job growth. For the market's sake, I also hope this reform gets some traction in Congress and does not go the way the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act has gone so far. A lot of the post-election bump has been tied to a better and fairer tax code for business.

So, what is on everyone's minds today?

Position: Long CELG
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-56.12%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-11.32%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+11.63%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+11.59%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-34.02%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-15.76%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-23.19%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+28.09%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+64.30%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+73.47%