Here's a funny childhood story to take us all into Sunday's Easter holiday. I relayed this story a few years ago and would like to repeat it again, in its entirety:

I'm reminded at this time every year (by my famous artist sister Debbie) of a true story that occurred in the late 1950s when I was about 10 years old.

When I was in fourth grade at my Long Island, N.Y., elementary school, the students were notified of a 'special assembly' to be held that afternoon.

When we all arrived in the auditorium, there was a woman on the stage in a chair who explained that she was an NBC representative for a TV quiz show called Tic-Tac-Dough, which aired at that time in New York on Channel 4.

She went on to explain that Tic-Tac-Dough, the predecessor show to Hollywood Squares (which used the same concept), was looking for two students to represent Long Island on the show during Christmas vacation week. (Adults participated on the show the rest of the year.)

She began to ask the students questions, but I was shy and never raised my hand. But in response to a question, my buddy Jo Anne Zerillo raised her hand and said she didn't know the answer but "The Professor" (my nickname then!) might. She pointed at me.

I answered the question and then another, and was notified that I had been selected along with my friend and classmate Carrie Spivak to represent our area on Tic-Tac-Dough.

Jack Barry, a fellow Long Islander and a Wharton graduate (as I would later be), was the host and (along with Dan Enright) the show's producer.

If you remember Jack Barry, it's probably because his production company was responsible for the scandal-ridden game show Twenty One. It turns out that Charles Van Doren and champion Herb Stempel were provided with answers to Twenty One's question in advance after principal advertiser Geritol complained that the unrigged production was dull and boring.

Barry's production company later created other game shows like Dough Re Mi, Winky Dink and You (reputedly the world's first-ever interactive TV program), the fabulously successful Concentration and the long-running Joker's Wild.

I went on Tic-Tac-Dough several weeks later and won my first six games, breaking a record for the show.

But in the seventh game, I selected the box "Holidays" and was asked by Jack Barry to name the Sunday before the Easter holiday. He went on to say that the holiday was the name of a tree.

The music played in the background and after waiting about 10 or 15 seconds, Mr. Barry asked if I knew the answer.

I thought long and hard, but had no idea of the answer. So I figured I should take a shot and guess the answer, as I already knew the holiday had the name of a tree in it.

Under pressure from Mr. Barry, I said: "Dogwood Sunday."

As the words came out of my mouth, I could hear my mother and Grandma Koufax (who were in the audience) gasp. My mom, clear as day, said, "Oh, no!" (I can still hear her words as if it were yesterday.)

I instantly knew it was the wrong answer and said -- I swear I did! -- "No, Mr. Barry. It's Redwood Sunday!"

Jack Barry, was in front of a pyramid of empty Crest toothpaste boxes that were stacked up in preparation for a commercial later on in the show. (The "Look Ma, No Cavities!" commercial was initially aired on Tic-Tac-Dough.)

Barry then said, "Doug, I am sorry. That is the wrong answer. The correct answer is Palm Sunday. Haven't you ever heard of Palm Sunday, the Sunday before Easter?"

I immediately said -- remember, this was live television) -- "No, Mr. Barry. I never heard of Palm Sunday. I am Jewish."

Barry, who was also Jewish, fell over laughing right into the boxes of Crest toothpaste, which all fell down into a mess.

I hope you enjoyed the story about Dogwood -- er, I mean, Redwood -- Sunday.

I will never forget the experience, and I have the tape of the week's appearances to prove it. (My office has been listening to them all day.)

In this holiday spirit, I want to be the first to wish a Happy Dogwood Sunday, Holy Week and Happy Easter to my family, all of my friends, subscribers, contributors, editors, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer and the entire TST management team!

P.S. There will be no "Takeaways" today - as I am heading out early!

"If everyone is going left, look right..."
-- Sam Zell

Last night I received a gift from Sam Zell in the mail -- his new book, "Am I Being Too Subtle? Straight Talk From A Business Rebel" 

I got up extra early (for me that is 4AM!) and I finished the book by noon today.

In his book, Sam explores his distinctly opportunistic professional and personal journeys.

My favorite chapter in the book is "A Godfather Offer" in which Sam describes the early 2007 sale of Equity Office, the largest REIT in the U.S for $39 billion.

I particularly enjoyed the email reparte between Sam and another good pal of mine, Vornado's Steve Roth -- in which Vornado made a counter bid against Blackstone for Equity Office.

The email exchange went like this:

Dear Stevie:

Roses are red

Violets are blue

I heard a rumor

Is it true?

Love and Kisses,

Sam

And Steve responded:

Sam, how are you?

The rumor is true

I do love you

And the price is $52.

To see if this poem will rhyme

We should talk at a set time

While to talk like this is nifty

We should really talk at three fifty.

Forever yours,
Steve

I am a big fan of Sam Zell.

Back in late 2006 I wrote a Barron's editorial entitled, "Look Who's Selling" -- as you can see below his sale made me think about the possibility of The Great Recession well before it was formed:

"THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE you just shouldn't trade against. Among them: George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, Steve Cohen, Ed Lampert and Sam Zell -- yes, the Sam Zell who recently agreed to sell his Equity Office Properties Trust to the private equity firm Blackstone Group. Shares of EOP, the largest real-estate investment trust specializing in commercial properties, have nearly doubled from the mid-20s in the fall of 2002 and now, at almost 50 a share, the value of one of Zell's jewels is relatively full. Zell accepted cash and the associated tax bill, which supports the view that he thought the price was rich...

SPECULATORS TOOK OVER and began to take a disproportionate role in the residential-real-estate market. Home prices kept on rising until they were elevated to levels that were out of reach for most buyers. Eighteen months after demand evaporated we still don't know where the bottom will be.

Today's boom in commercial real estate, like the bubbles that preceded it, has been fueled by the belief in a long, uninterrupted economic boom and a continued stream of equity and debt capital. Both could come to an end.

How? Let us count the ways:

(1) A more serious housing decline leads to a broader consumer-led global economic downturn than is generally expected.

(2) A continued fall in the U.S. dollar lowers purchasing power while the defense of the dollar raises interest rates.

(3) Foreign trade initiatives like protectionism and tariffs reduce confidence in the capital markets.

(4) A geopolitical event adversely affects confidence in the capital markets.

(5) A domestic event precipitates a loss of confidence and the figurative or literal closing of the capital markets.

(6) Failure of a deal or some other event precipitates a loss of confidence and the closing of the bridge-financing window.

We don't know what to expect, but that should be no comfort. The unexpected is what usually puts needles in bubbles."

At the end of the chapter on the Equity Office Sale, Sam contends that people incorrectly credit him with calling the top in the real estate market:

"The reality is I wasn't trying to. While I was certain the market was frothy, I wasn't selling to get out of the office market. I had simply received a Godfather offer."

To me and many others he did call the top -- nearly $40 billion says so -- despite his protestations

Regardless, "Am I Being Too Subtle" is a must read!

Run, don't walk to read it!

More from Cashin:

Terrorist bomb adds to angst going into long weekend with a North Korean holiday in the middle. Oil clinging to $53 inhibits stock bulls along with worry about financials.

Rumor that Justice Kennedy may retire by July also raises fears of a more poisonous partisanship that could torpedo all of the agenda.

Have a Happy Easter anyway.

The key feature today is more signs of slowing growth manifested in a new low in the 10-year US note yield.

I pressed my equity shorts earlier today on the feeble rally.

Midday musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

Stocks slip on what looks like a pre-holiday buyers' boycott.

Haven plays continue to hint that geo-politics are a lingering concern as long weekend approaches.

As I noted in Comments, Founders Day (4/15) moves North Korea to the top of the wild card list.

As I have been consistently writing, the character of the market has changed.

And it is not just the failure of yesterday's market to rally off of the morning lows.

Leading groups are rolling over -- the mirror image of the last 1-3 years when we had positive rotation from group to group.

Importantly, as noted in my opening missive, there are negative ramifications (economic and geopolitical) of the sudden decline in bond yields and the recent rise in the price of gold.

Some in the bullish camp believes they will know when to sell. But, please tell me, how will they know?

Others in the bullish camp believe that we should be reactionary to a market decline and not anticipatory. But, please tell me, how will they know when to precisely react?

More questions added to my previous seven questions -- but little in the way of answers, I am afraid.

Unfortunately I believe we are in a dangerous zone now -- for our markets and perhaps for the world.

I am medium sized net short reflecting the concerns I have frequently expressed in my Diary.

I will have more Easter tidings in my last column of the day prior to Good Friday, but in advance I wanted to wish all my friends, our subscribers, our contributors, editors and management at TheStreet a very happy Easter holiday, Holy Week and a wonderful three-day weekend of peace and fun with your families:

I suspect the price action will diminish and volume essentially will come to a halt as the afternoon progresses, prior to Good Friday.

I have nothing worthwhile or incremental to say right now!

A brief observation that this could be yet another day in which Mr. Market is unable to sustain a rally.

To me, this is all part of the topping process that has been in place for three to five weeks.

It also explains why, in a slow rollover, an anticipatory approach rather than a reactionary approach to shorting may pay off this time, as it does at important inflection points.

But, stay tuned!

My only trades in this session have been to add to longs in Campbell Soup (CPB) $56.61 and Twitter (TWTR) $14.30.

With last night's rip in bond prices and drops in yields, I have added to my iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF  (TLT) short.

It is now a large position.

For those who worship at the altar of price and don't like the price action of this investment/trade (short bonds), I will remind you how poorly SPDR Gold Shares  (GLD) traded when it broke $108 (and we bought) months ago. Now trading at $122-plus, it is everyone's fave.

Based on my calculus the bond market is projecting about 0.5% Real GDP growth for the next 12 months.

As bearish as I might be on the domestic economy, I don't see a chance in hell that this will be the outcome.

Charts to me tell me where stocks, sectors and markets have been not where they are going.

"Don't wait for the last judgment -- it takes place every day."

--Albert Camus

Like Sonny the Cuckoo Bird, throughout the last three months business commentators, money managers and strategists have been "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs" when it comes to bank stocks. Indeed, if you do a Google search you will see that the banking industry has been the most touted sector since the election. That consistent endorsement has been a self-confident one and remains so despite the 8% fall in the sector from the March highs.

I believe the consensus optimism on banks is misplaced. And I also believe that if I prove to be correct, we predictably will hear crickets from the "carpet sweepers" who confidently have endorsed the group.

Thus far bank stocks have had a modest reaction to relatively good and above-consensus earnings reports.

But first-quarter profit reports are simply rearview mirror influences; I prefer to look forward as the market is a discounting mechanism.

We now are approaching judgment day for the financial sector and I expect the stocks to continue to roll over in the weeks and months ahead, as described extensively in a recent column I wrote about financials. (I would note that MetLife (MET) , Lincoln National (LNC) , Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are on my Best Ideas List as shorts.)

Slowing economic growth relative to expectations, moderate gains in commercial and industrial loan demand, a peaking in autos and housing activity, lower-than-consensus implied interest rates, a flattening yield curve, limited regulatory changes to Dodd-Frank and other factors lie on top of elevated valuations, which are back to pre-crisis levels.

The bottom line is that those in the banking industry barely will earn their cost of capital in the years ahead, and price/earnings ratios will reflect that state.

I am a seller of financial stocks on strength.

The "Trump Trade" into banks and industrials -- among the latter, Fastenal (FAST) and U.S. Steel (X) , down 8% and 10% on Wednesday, respectively -- is dying on the vine.

The message of the 10-year U.S. note yield is crystal clear -- expectations of an acceleration in the rate of growth empowered by the administration's policy initiatives likely will disappoint the optimistic consensus.

The financial ETF, Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) , closed on Wednesday at $23.20, near the year-to-date low of $22.85 and just above the February low of $23.10.

After hours yesterday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. note whooshed lower to below 2.23%, suggesting that last Friday morning's climax to 2.27% and subsequent rally to an intraday high of 2.38% may have been a false bottom in yield.

Meanwhile, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty, the price of gold has steadily advanced, rising to the highest level since last November.

Surprisingly -- and on a more positive note -- the CNN Fear/Greed Index is no longer Greedy and the 10-day CBOE put call ratio stands at only at 0.98.

Finally, the VIX option volatility index has climbed to a four month high. This typically coincides with a continued corrective process.

Talk Amongst Yourselves

When a market does not see the risks that may be on the horizon, the sun often sets quickly.

In a networked world where events happen quickly and are interrelated, the ramifications of missteps can be enormous.

Having historical investment experience has been a liability over the last few years. It may not be any longer.

Captain Obvious

Last night I happened to be listening to an installment of "Fast Money" in which a guest who is a strategist at Bank of America said she only now was concerned -- with Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) at new lows -- about the state of the automobile industry.

While I do a lot of near-term trading, my primary job in the diary, unlike many who react to news, is to anticipate conditions and factors that will impact our markets. "Peak autos," a likely trajectory of slowing economic and profit growth, and the rising probability that White House policy won't be implemented are some of the ideas I have been delivering for months.

My job is to consider the contrary and also to ask questions, as I have with three old ones and four new ones that are intended to make you think about the intermediate-term market outlook in order to evaluate reward versus risk (upside versus downside) and to lay out an investment plan relative to your time frame and risk appetite.

Bottom Line

I invite you to consider the following recent posts:

• "The Market Top Bell Has Officially Rung!" Boca Biff has gone all in long. 
• "Meshuganah Is Trump." Morgan Stanley's strategy team sees an imminent 30% rise in the S&P.
• "I Fear The Absence of Fear of Loss" in a market dominated by machines and algos.
• "It's Always Been A Matter of Trust, and I Don't Have It"
• "'All in the Family' Trump Style Isn't Suitable for Prime Time." Having the experience of the president's children as the ultimate sounding boards should frankly be frightening to investors.

I remain of my long-held belief, expressed in 15 Surprises for 2017, that the intermediate-term upside of the S&P 500 Index at 2375 may have been achieved and will serve as a market top over the next few months, possibly longer.

My pal Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst with The Lindsey Group, talks among other things about the ramifications of the president talking down the dollar:

It's always an easy lever to pull. Talk down one's currency and hope that it helps exports. I guess it was just a matter of time before President Trump chimed in considering his obsessive focus on the US trade deficit. But would a weaker dollar really help the US economy? Exports are only 12% of US GDP. Consumer spending, that would suffer from a weaker dollar via lower purchasing power and higher inflation on the 15% of GDP that we import, makes up 70% as we all know. Retailers are also the largest US employer. We also know that a huge challenge facing the middle class has been real wages that have essentially flat lined over the past few decades where a rise in the cost of living via a weaker currency would only exacerbate. I'm a proponent of neither a strong nor weak currency but a stable one and believe that we should be careful here in hoping for a weak currency (or just not a strong one which I get) Mr. President. Just look at the experience of Japan where consumer spending remains punk and the weak currency hasn't led to any noticeable impact on export volumes. Export volumes are no different today than they were in 2011 when the yen was trading at 75-80. The market response to the DJT comments are as expected with the dollar index trading at a 2 week low. There are also equity implications here too as the Nikkei closed at a 4 month low and the DAX is at a 2 ½ week low.

Also of note in response to the dollar comment, the implied US inflation rate yesterday 5 and 10 yrs out each rose 2 bps with the 5 yr at 1.88% and the 10 yr at 1.92% and both are up slightly this morning. They are still off about 15-20 bps from their January highs but remain well above last year's lows. Nominal yields broke hard on the 'I like low interest rates' comment and questions about tax reform because how will it be paid for with questions on BAT, especially if Trump doesn't like a strong dollar but if the dollar actually sustains a notable drop here, that is potentially a big negative for long term bonds. And remember, foreigners, who have been huge sellers of US Treasuries over the past few years, will only pick up the pace. Thus, sell this bond rally I believe.

With respect to gold and the unofficial/official Administration endorsement of a 'not strong dollar' in addition to every other single country in the world who also wants a weak currency, I'm upgrading my view point on gold and silver from buy to pound the table buy. Both are now above their 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages and at a 5-month highs.

Bottom line, wanting a weak dollar that would raise the cost of living on a consumer spending dependent economy and continuing with artificially low interest rates that only encourages leverage and discourages savings won't MAGA, it would just be more of the same. I completely understand the desire to improve the macro environment for US manufacturing and the jobs associated with it but I'd prefer to see that happen via tax and regulatory policy that would MACA, Make America Competitive Again.

Overseas, the Chinese trade data surprised to the upside for both exports and imports. On a dollar basis, exports in March jumped 16.4% y/o/y, well more than the forecast of up 4.3%. The gains were broad based geographically and helps to confirm the belief that global trade has bottomed out after a challenging few years. That said, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs said trade should slow down in Q2 from the pace in Q1. Imports were higher by 20.3% y/o/y vs the forecast of up 15.5%. With respect to China's insatiable appetite for commodities, there were double digit y/o/y percentage increases in imports of coal, crude oil (to an all time record high), fuel oil, iron ore, steel and soybeans. Copper imports though fell 20% y/o/y but improved in March from the levels seen in January and February. There was basically no stock market response to the upside surprise as both the Shanghai comp and H share index were unchanged. The yuan is back to unchanged after the post Trump comment surge overnight. I remain generally positive on commodities more due to supply side responses but they now may get a lift from a weaker dollar IF it follows from here.

The China economic proxy that is Australia reported a big upside jobs surprise in March but keep in mind the large monthly volatility in its measure. Employment grew by 61k, triple the estimate while the unemployment rate held at 5.9% as the participation rate rose by 2 tenths. Full time job growth was the most in almost 30 years. Not only has the Australian economy survived the commodity crash and now benefiting from its stability, the Reserve Bank of Australia is now dealing with an easy money driven debt and housing bubble problem. What will the RBA do in response with rates at just 1.5% which is at a record low for them? In its Financial Stability Review today which comes out twice a year they said "In Australia, vulnerabilities related to household debt and the housing market more generally have increased. Some riskier types of borrowing, such as interest only lending, remain prevalent." We can same the same thing about Canadian households where Toronto and Vancouver are in the midst of an epic housing bubble. How many times do we have to see central bank easing credit bubbles occur before any lessons are learned? The Aussie$ is higher vs the US dollar while the ASX closed down .74%.