I don't think much is going to happen in the markets over the half-hour or so that remains in today's shortened session (famous last words). So, I'm going to use the time to do a little field work by visiting the three stores that Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) runs near my home.

Such trips aren't "actionable," but I like to get a flavor for how consumers are reacting on Black Friday to various key products.

I'm ending the day shorter than where I began, and I plan on making make one more post from the road. But if I get too busy, enjoy the holiday weekend with your families and thanks for reading my diary!

I find this summary of the macroeconomic developments of the week by my pal Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group to be extremely helpful:

Positives

1) US Durable goods orders in October rose .5% m/o/m ex transports, which was two-tenths better than expected, and September was revised up by a few tenths. Importantly, the core measure rose 1.3%, well better than the forecast of up .2%, and September was revised from -.1% (revised in factory orders) to up .4%.

2) Initial jobless claims fell 12k to 260k, 10k less than expected, and the 4-week average remained unchanged at 271k because a 260k print five weeks ago falls out of the average. Continuing claims, though, rose by 34k off near the lowest level in 15 years.

3) Personal income in October rose .4% m/o/m, where private sector wages and salaries were higher by .6% m/o/m, which matches the best level since May and is up 5.3% y/o/y. The savings rate rose to 5.6% y/o/y, the highest since December '12 as spending lagged -- see below.

4) Core PCE was flat m/o/m and up just 1.3% y/o/y, a large 6-tenths below core CPI mostly because of less contribution from housing and the reliance on government price-fixing of health care costs via Medicare and Medicaid. The CPI measures actual consumer expenditures on healthcare and about 40% is housing-related.

5) The Markit services PMI improved to 56.5 in November from 54.8 last month. It's at the best level since April and Markit said it was "helped by recovery in new business growth from October's nine-month low." They also saw a "solid pace of job creation in November, but business confidence remains relatively subdued." The rise in employment was up slightly, "but remained weaker than seen on average so far in 2015." In light of the global economic uncertainty, "some panel members noted that signs of weaker global economic conditions were a factor leading to caution about the outlook for business activity at their units."

6) US GDP in the 3rd quarter was revised to a gain of 2.1% from the first print of 1.5%. That was exactly in line with expectations as inventories and gross private investment were less of a drag than initially reported. The personal consumption component was actually revised down by two- tenths instead of remaining unchanged as forecasted and real final sales was revised lower to an annualized gain of 2.7% from 3% as first reported. Trade was revised slightly lower.

7) Existing home sales in October totaled 5.36mm annualized, slightly below the estimate of 5.4mm and the 6-month average of 5.43mm. Of the total, single-family sales dropped to 4.75mm from 4.93mm, mostly driven by a fall in the South and West. Months' supply rose a tenth to 4.8 and was kept from rising further because of a decline in the amount of homes for sale. The median home price rose 5.8% y/o/y, with the single-family component higher by 6.3%. After falling by 300 bps in September to 29%, the amount of first-time buyers rebounded to 31%, which is about in line with the 6-month average of 30% but well-below the historical range of 40%.

8) German IFO business confidence weathered the Paris attacks as its index rose to 109 from 108.2 in October. The estimate was for an unchanged print and it's at the highest level since June '14. The IFO said "The German economy remains unaffected by growing uncertainty worldwide. Not even the Paris attacks had a negative impact on survey data."

9) French business confidence index in November was 102, unchanged but holding at its best level since August '11. The INSEE, which compiles the data, however, included the following warning: "the results of this survey take into account answers until 19 November inclusive. The large majority of responses were registered before the attacks of 13 November."

10) French consumer confidence held steady at 96 in November, which is just a point off matching the best level since '07 and compares with the long-term average of 100 but with the caveat that only 7% of respondents answered after the November 13th attacks.

11) The November Eurozone manufacturing and services composite index rose to 54.4 from 53.9, and that was slightly above the estimate of 54.0. The index is at the best level since May '11 and was driven by Germany and some of the periphery countries as France saw a decline m/o/m, likely due in part to the terrorist attacks.

12) Eurozone economic confidence in November held unchanged at 106.1, the best since May '11.

13) After falling last month to the lowest level since this survey began in 2007, the Westpac MNI China consumer confidence number rebounded somewhat to 113.1 from 109.7 in October and is back to the year-to-date average of 113.2.

14) In Japan, manufacturing confidence in November rose to 52.8, the best level since March '14 from 52.4 in October. Markit said "new orders increased at a marked rate" and "international demand rose sharply as growth in new export orders picked up to a five month high."

15) The Japanese unemployment rate fell to 3.1% from 3.4%, and that is the lowest level since 1995. The participation rate, though, did fall to 59.9% from 60.2% and the number of both employed and unemployed were lower. It would seem that wage gains of substance seen inevitable with an unemployment rate this low, and Kuroda has his fingers crossed ahead of the Spring negotiations. The jobs-to-applicant ratio held at 1.24, the highest since 1992 but a touch below the estimate of 1.25.

16) Positive for the challenged Japanese consumer but sorry for Kuroda, October CPI ex food and energy slowed to .7% growth y/o/y vs .9% in September. The estimate was up .8%. However, the November core/core print for Tokyo (always reported a month ahead of the national number) was up .6% y/o/y vs .4% estimate and the fastest rate of change since 1998, not including the VAT hike.

Negatives

1) Personal spending in October rose just .1% m/o/m, two -enths less than expected and with the headline PCE inflation deflator also up .1%, real spending was unchanged, which has led to a downward revision to Q4 GDP estimates.

2) Even though the average US 30-yr mortgage rate backed off a multi-month high, there was no follow thru on last week's bounce in mortgage applications. Purchases were basically flat, falling .5% w/o/w, while refis were down by 4.8% to a 10-week low.

3) New home sales in October totaled 495k, just off the estimate of 500k, but September was revised down by 21k to just 447k, which is the lowest print since July 2014. The 495k level is right about in line with the year-to-date average of 500k but remains well below the 30-yr average of 705k. After jumping from 5.1 to 6.0 in September, months' supply fell back to 5.5. Prices fell 6% y/o/y and 8.5% sequentially, but only after spiking by 18% y/o/y and 4.5% m/o/m in the month prior. At a median price of $281,500, it is the lowest since September '14 after hitting a record high of $307,800 last month.

4) After rising by 3.1 pts in the first read of November UoM consumer confidence, sentiment fell back to 91.3 in the final survey of the month vs 90 in October. One-year inflation expectations were 2.7%, in line with October but above the first November look of 2.5%, which did match a multi-year low. "Nearly all of the recent advance was focused on current conditions rather than future economic prospects, and the entire November gain was due to lower income households. Households with incomes in the top third of the distribution, who account for more than half of all spending, expressed a more cautious optimism. This more guarded outlook reflected somewhat-weaker personal financial prospects and a greater insistence that their purchases will be contingent on the availability of discounted prices and reduced interest rates."

5) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November fell to 90.4 from a revised 99.1 last month (initially 97.6), and that was well below the estimate of 99.5. It is also at the weakest level since September 2014. A key factor in the headline weakness were the answers to the labor market questions. Those that said jobs were Plentiful fell 2.8 pts to 19.9, matching the lowest level since April, and those that said jobs were Hard To Get rose 1.6 pts to the most since July. Also, those expecting more 'employment' fell to 11.6 from 14.4 in October and vs 15.5 last year, and that is the weakest level since October 2011.

6) Markit's US manufacturing index for November weakened to 52.6 from 54.1 in October. That is the lowest level since October '13. Markit said all five components contributed to the softness. "Reports from survey respondents generally cited a cyclical slowdown in demand patterns and ongoing weakness in export sales. Reflecting this, the index measuring new orders from abroad dipped back inside negative territory in November. Lower levels of new work from abroad were linked to a combination of the strong dollar and weaker global economic conditions." Furthermore, "Softer rates of job hiring reflected greater caution in terms of the business outlook and reduced pressure on operating capacity. This was highlighted by a drop in backlogs of work for the first time in 12 months."

7) The string of soft regional manufacturing indices continued as the November Richmond survey was -3 vs -1 in October and below the estimate of +1. This follows a negative print from NY and barely positive ones from Philly and KC. The Richmond index is negative for a 3rd straight month.

8) Before the terrorist attacks in Paris, French consumer spending in October fell .7% m/o/m, below the estimate of down .1%. Also, the number of job seekers in France in October rose to a new high.

9) Italian business confidence fell to 104.6 from 105.7 in October and off the best level since 2011.

10) Collateral damage from China, Hong Kong trade data in October remained soft with exports down 3.7% y/o/y (negative now six months in a row) and imports lower by 8.5% y/o/y, both, though, about in line with expectations.

11) Overall household spending in Japan fell 2.4% y/o/y in October, well worse than expectations of no change.

12) Geopolitical tensions take another leg higher with Turkish shoot-down of Russian jet.

Here's a rundown of my latest moves:

Blackstone/GSO

I've added to my long of the Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit closed-end fund (BGB) on nearly every trading day over the last two weeks. As such, my position has now moved to large from medium-sized.

As I mentioned earlier this week, BGB's trading volume has swelled, with more than 500,000 shares traded on both Monday and Tuesday. That could mark a selling climax similar to what we saw in closed-end municipal-bond funds in December 2013.

Muni-Bond Funds

As aggressive as I've been on my BGB long, I've been equally aggressive on the sell side of muni-bond funds. I'm now down to tag ends on most of my muni-fund longs.

Disney and GLD

I put Walt Disney Co. (DIS) on my "Best Short Ideas" list this morning at $116.25, but I'm taking off the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).

I'm maintaining a small long on GLD, but can't justify its inclusion on my "Best Ideas" list any more.

Click here to check out the weak one-year chart of The Blackstone Group (BX).

This could serve as yet another warning sign for equities' future over the coming months.

Moroever, 4k BX Jan. 28 puts just traded (to open) at $0.44.

I'm increasing my short positions today on Comcast (CMCSA) and Walt Disney Co. (DIS).

As I wrote recently, Disney disclosed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing today that its ESPN network lost 3 million subscribers over the past fiscal year -- a bad sign for cable TV.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is lower today after the company disclosed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing that its ESPN network lost 3 million subscribers in the latest fiscal year.

DIS is a recent short for me. My thesis is that the company's problems with "chord-cutting" and "chord-shaving" -- consumers scaling back or eliminating cable TV -- seem likely to accelerate.

I added further to my short of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on today's early morning strength.

I probably won't make a trade for the balance of the day.

SmarterInvestor.comargues that Apple (AAPL) is a good long-term short for the patient investor.

Roger Cohen's op/ed piece World War III in today's New York Times is disturbing.

Check out these two good articles from the Harvard Business Review:

• HBR argues that no one will implement the best solution to economic stagnation.

• The publication looks at why the NFL is more valuable than ever.

Shanghai stocks fell by more than 5% overnight.

I recently established a short of the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI).

Here's what I wrote back in late June about China:

"'Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whom have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It's a basic fact of life that many things 'everybody knows' turn out to be wrong.'

― Jim Rogers

After a six-year bull, market participants have grown remarkably complacent:

• Few want to hear that the capital markets have been buoyed by the largesse of the Federal Reserve, which, as I have argued, has distorted and screwed up our economy and markets.

• Few are concerned about irrational exuberance or that earnings reports are a form of low-grade fiction, as opined by Carl Icahn on CNBC this week.

• Few are concerned about the many forms of malinvestment that have sprouted up under the umbrella of near-zero interest rates.

• And few are worried about by continuing -- and very real -- macroeconomic and geopolitical threats.

'It amazes me how people are often more willing to act based on little or no data than to use data that is a challenge to assemble.'

― Dr. Robert J. Shiller

Instead, investors are comforted by commentators, money managers and strategists who self-confidently say "buy the dip," exclaim that the growing structural headwinds to growth are easily solvable, and argue that the market's tripling in six years is rational and based on fundamental variables -- even though their forecasts have rarely been back-tested and listening to many of them in the past cycle (2007-09) would have sent you to the poor house.

Those who reach ursine conclusions are ostracized, dismissed and even criticized openly by the business media, even as their arguments objectively make sense. 

Case in point: The gross speculation in Chinese equities, where disbelief has been suspended for some time in a parabolic rise cheered on by gamblers in that country, and now has transitioned into an acute dive in share prices, with the Shanghai Index dropping by 8% overnight. 

Three weeks ago I wrote a column entitled 'China's Bubble Trouble,' which detailed my concerns regarding that stock market. For emphasis, I am repeating it in its entirety, as it is another example of conspicuous speculation, which up to two weeks ago had been ignored:

'Round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows.'

― Ted Mack, Amateur Hour

'The Original Amateur Hour' was an American radio and television program that was the progenitor of 'Star Search,' 'America's Got Talent,' 'The Voice' and 'American Idol.'

At the show's beginning, the talent's order of appearance was determined by spinning a wheel. After announcing how many episodes had been aired, the wheel was spun with the words: 'Round and round she goes, and where she stops nobody knows.'

This particular phrase applies to the Chinese stock market, which is experiencing what I can only describe as the height of speculation.

There's little question that Chinese stock prices have outstripped fundamentals. According to an excellent Economist report, median P/E on the Shanghai Composite is 75x.

After failing to reflate China's property market and in light of more signs of a slowing deceleration in domestic growth, Chinese authorities have turned their attention to inflating their stock market -- encouraging speculation in a host of ways. That includes liquidity injections through monetary easing, as well as urging people to reallocate assets into stocks and away from property, savings and wealth-management products.

Chinese brokerage accounts are growing exponentially in response, with 8 million new accounts in the first quarter alone, according to The Economist. Average daily trading volumes are also hitting new records.

With small 'floats' and a system that's characterized by opacity, secrecy, corruption and limited regulation, many Chinese stocks have been pushed up to Spaceballs' 'Ludicrous Speed.'

The Shenzhen Composite index has tripled over the last 12 months, and the Chinese averages have been climbing parabolically since March. (Here's a 12-month chart of the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), which demonstrates China's relative and absolute outperformance.)

Daily market moves of +4% have now become routine, but numerous stock frauds of companies whose shares are up more than five-fold are being uncovered every week.

As The Economist found, one pet-food company trades at 220x earnings, while a sauna maker sells for 285x earnings and a manufacturer of fans goes for 730x earnings.

The magazine also reported that 100 Chinese companies have changed their names this year. A hotel company rebranded itself as a high-speed railway company, a fireworks manufacturer became a peer-to-peer lender and a ceramics specialist became an energy company.

Kemian Wood Industry, a composite-floorboards manufacturer that faced a slump in its end markets, recently saw its share price briefly double after the firm changed its name and revised its focus to online gaming, according to The Economist. The magazine said China's state broadcaster recently accused the company of 'fabricating themes and telling stories' in order to inflate its share price. (The firm denied the allegations.)

This week's potential disaster is Hanergy Group.

On CNBC two days ago, Muddy Waters' Carson Block raised concerns about Chinese stock frauds in China, calling this the largest 'pump and dump in history.'

The Irrational is Being Rationalized

What really shocks me is that many otherwise-sober observers have accepted the Chinese market's ramp-up as understandable and reasonable. One market watcher called it 'a change in psychology,' with share prices 'moving from the lower left to the upper right.'

Sometimes what's in front of us is mistakenly accepted as normal even though it's absurd on so many bases. It's abundantly clear how inflated the Chinese bubble is.

As Credit Suisse put it: '(China's) equity market price momentum has decoupled away from earnings revisions, which remain deeply embedded in negative territory.'

I recent added the Chinese stock-market bubble to my list of 13 intermediate-term concerns.

Shorting FXI looks like a good move, but I don't have the stomach to do so and I certainly can't calibrate the timing of such as short. That said, I'm seriously looking at FXI puts.

When the bubble bursts -- and it will -- a long shadow will be cast over the Chinese economy, as leverage has played a crucial part of the rally.

Margin buying has increased more than five-fold in the last 12 months to over $325 billion, according to The Economist. Moreover, the magazine found that 'umbrella trusts,' in which banks lend to wealthy investors, have added more debt to stock buying. The Economist said that Credit Suisse estimates nearly 10% of China's market capitalization is funded with credit -- nearly five times the developed world's average. 

As David Clayton-Thomas once sang:

 'What goes up, must come down.'

― Blood, Sweat and Tears, Spinning Wheel

Bottom Line

'Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.'

― Fred Schwed Jr., 'Where Are the Customers' Yachts?: Or a Good Hard Look at Wall Street'

The Chinese stock market is a market on steroids. Its speculative nature, fueled by retail investors with a timeframe measured in days, has clear dissimilarities and extremes compared to the U.S. stock market. Nonetheless, China should still be viewed as something of a leveraged template that we should consider as it relates to the future of the U.S. stock market.

If the recent S&P Index low is tested and breaks through the downside of the six-month range, I am not convinced that it should be viewed as healthy and I am not convinced that dip should be bought, as many will argue. 

― Doug's Daily Diary, China's Leveraged Market Should Spell Caution for U.S. Investors (June 26, 2015)

KaloBios Pharmaceuticals (KBIO) is up some $21 a share in premarket trading this morning -- a nearly 80% rise. It's rallying on reports that insiders have decided not to lend their shares to short sellers.

This is "Peak Speculation" -- and joins the long list of peaks that I see!

KBIO won't be a "Bull Market Killer" in and of itself. But such speculative excesses are clear signs of a maturing bull market.

I traveled to Best Buy (BBY) at three South Florida locations last night to check things out ahead of Black Friday.

I spoke to all three shops' general managers, and here are their responses to my questions regarding store traffic:

Store No. 1: "Our business is probably flat with 2014. The big sellers continue to be flat-screen TVs, which were higher year over year. But most other products were lower."

Store No. 2: "Thus far, it's only been a few hours, (but) sales traffic is probably slightly lower than last year. Computer peripherals and televisions are the predominant sales categories."

Store No. 3: "Our business appears to be a bit above last Black Friday, but it's only been a few hours."

Based on these observations and others, my feeling is that retailers' holiday promotional activity started weeks ago. When combined with Internet shopping, that should "borrow" from revenues on both Black Friday and into the future.

P.S. In case you're wondering, I purchased a Pioneer stereo component system (about 35% off) and one product from Apple (AAPL) -- a Mac Air that was $100 off.