I previously wrote about the negative outlook for the traditional retail business -- and Macy's (M) specifically -- this morning.

This afternoon, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer's "Macy's and the End of Shopping as We Know It" captures the clear and (changing) retail zeitgeist that exists today  

The transformation of the delivery of retail goods began glacially but has quickened its pace dramatically in the last 12 to 18 months.

Amazon (AMZN) initially began to transform the delivery system of retail products years ago, but many others have chimed in with strategies that emphasize quicker and less-expensive channels, particularly of an Internet kind.

The debris from this changing backdrop will be voluminous and scattered well beyond the traditional retail businesses. As an example, Whole Foods (WFM) -- a market-leading distributor of high-quality, gourmet food products -- was disintermediated weeks ago. There will be many more industries disrupted.

Moreover, this transition has important negative ramifications not only for the retail industry but also for the real estate industry (read: malls and shopping centers); it provided the bricks and mortar that served as a delivery point for goods and a prime source of jobs. These and other sectors will be damaged going forward.

As I mentioned in my morning column, "Macy's Performance Is No Miracle on 34th Street," we are now over-boxed in this Brave New Retailing World, which coalesced in one big thump and dumping in retail stocks after Macy's punk results today.

But Macy's won't be the last victim.

There will be more damage in numerous industries.

As I cited in my Barron's piece four years ago titled "The Threat of Screwflation," technological obsolescence is one of the root causes of the weak jobs market over the last decade.

Stated simply, the quantity of physical and labor capital required to operate a business has changed forever in the world.

No wonder Facebook (FB) has nearly six times the market value of General Motors (GM).

"Some people live an entire lifetime and wonder if they have ever made a difference in the world. Veterans don't have that problem."

• Happy Veterans Day to all who have served.
• *Price is what you pay, value is what you get." -- Warren Buffett. Read this, written nearly 13 years ago (hat tip Divine Ms M).
• Quiet and range-bound day, for a change!
• The U.S. dollar is weaker, but barely.
• Crude oil down by over a beaner, and energy stocks are broadly lower. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) are recent Best Ideas List names (on the short side). 
• Taxable bonds were offered.
• Municipal bonds flat.
• High yield weaker. Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) gives up half of yesterday's gains.
• Gold losing its luster.
• Financials starting to get hit late in the day -- especially of a Citigroup (C) kind.
• Retailers=Schmeissburger.
• Consumer staples mixed.
• Industrials and commodities0based groups languishing; for example, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) down by about 6%.
• (T)FANG stronger, though General Electric (GE) is breaking out to the upside.
• Tech mixed; Facebook (FB) is the "world's fair" and Apple (AAPL) continues to be a laggard.
• iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) slightly lower on the day, but headliners Mallinckrodt (MNK) and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) are experiencing larger price declines.
• Buyback stocks are starting to perform poorly. As an example, look at the awful chart for Cummins (CMI)   as revenues are slowing and earnings per share guidance has been reduced even though the company continues to buy back shares. The latter is no longer helping the stock price. This company is typically a leading indicator to the health of emerging markets, and a  synchronized global economic deceleration seems as though it may be in the cards.

I added to my individual short exposure, increased my ETF short exposure and initiated shorts in three new short names -- iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), Starbucks (SBUX) and Disney (DIS).

I mentioned recently that I've added or expanded several short positions today.

Most of these moves involve stocks that I see as overbought in the near term, but others are grounded in fundamental reasons. The latter include:

• The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI). I've written often about my disdain for Chinese securities and the false hope of China's gross-domestic-product growth.

• Starbucks (SBUX). In a consumer slowdown, price elasticity has to negatively impact Starbucks' comps.

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS). I think Disney is fully priced, over-owned and vulnerable to consumer slowdown (theme-park prices are through the roof). DIS could also suffer from other issues, including a possible negative turn in sentiment based on the New York attorney general's ruling yesterday that fantasy-sports sites represent a form of illegal gambling. (Disney owns sports-news giant ESPN.)

Check out The Wall Street Journal's review of the iPad Pro from Apple (AAPL).

I pressed my shorts today on Apple (AAPL) Exxon Mobil (XOM), MetLife (MET), Schlumberger (SLB), the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

I also established new shorts on Starbucks (SBUX), Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI). (Full disclosure: that's a Dennis Gartman fave on the long side.)

I'm also currently offering above-the-market short sales on Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), but hadn't executed those trades as of this writing.

Executives from Caterpillar (CAT) spoke at the Baird Industrial Conference today and reaffirmed 2016 sales-and-profit outlooks.

They also said that:

• the resource sector should be about 10% lower in 2016 (down from a low base this year)

• the construction sector will likely be flat to down 5% next year

• energy and transportation will be down 5% to 10%, mostly due to oil and gas weakness

Oil prices are back down today and threatening to hit $43 a barrel.

I previously noted that my pal Dennis Gartman went long on oil, but he was stopped out of that position on Monday.

As for myself, you'll recall that I recently went short on Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) and placed both on my "Best Short Ideas" list. I've also added to those positions this week.

"(Securities and Exchange chief Mary Jo)White saidTwitter is an information source that must be policed actively, and a 140-character Twitter posting and a four-hour presentation are essentially the same."

-- SEC's White Says Short Selling Getting Her "Intense Attention," Bloomberg News (Nov. 10, 2015)

We live in a world where so many untoward influences can adversely impact our markets, and that have already resulted in retail investors fleeing from investing.

There are central bankers that elevate asset prices with monetary-policy largesse, commercial banks that rig foreign-exchange markets, sell-side Wall Street research that's beholden to corporate-finance clients and quants that manipulate whatever they can.

Is the SEC visibly concerned with these threat?

Apparently not.

This Zero Hedge column looks at SEC chief Mary Jo White's comments to Bloomberg TV yesterday, in which she seems to says that one of regulators' targets are short sellers on Twitter.

Considering the real market threats -- especially of a quant kind -- the SEC is once again demonstrating that it's hopeless, clueless and brainless.

Midday musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

"Midmorning rollover was a reaction to the sell-off in oil, prompted by heavy inventories.

Oil stabilizes near lows as Europe closed, which inspired a little bargain hunting in U.S. equities -- which was also inspired by the S&P lows staying well above the nearly identical lows of Monday and Tuesday.

Run rate later."

"Susan Walker: There are no such thing as giants.

Fred Gailey: What about the one Jack killed?

Susan Walker: Jack? Jack who?

Fred Gailey: Jack from 'Jack and the Beanstalk.'

Susan Walker: I never heard of that.

Fred Gailey: Sure you have. You must have forgotten. It's a fairy tale.

Susan Walker: Oh, one of those. I don't know any of those. My mother thinks they're silly."

-- Miracle on 34th Street

Most people are familiar with Miracle on 34th Street,the 1947 film about a kindly old man who gets a job at Macy's (M) playing Santa Claus, but claims to be the real thing. He's institutionalized as insane, but a young lawyer decides to defend him by arguing in court that he's the real thing.

Many people also know that New York's 34th Street is the location of Macy's real flagship store, which covers almost an entire city block and features about 1.1 million square feet of retail space. The store also serves as the endpoint for Macy's annual Thanksgiving Day parade.

Many in the business media have fawned over Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren for several years now, but I'm not sure why.

Macy's shares are down more than $6 today as I write this, and a price decline has actually been in place for a while now. (Click here to see the stock's one-year chart.)

There are numerous signposts of weakening consumer demand across the globe. Stock-price declines, earnings misses and reduced forward guidance have hit not only Macy's, but also The Gap (GPS), Kohl's (KSS), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and other retailers -- and even Harley-Davidson (HOG).

As I suggested in my sector-by-sector analysis yesterday, the retail segment's outlook seems negative from my perch:

"The retail industry is being disrupted -- hard -- and that will continue. There are simply too many big-box chains, and I expect a cycle of bankruptcies over the next few years. The oversupply of restaurants is not dissimilar.

A slowdown in home refinancings (a source of consumer discretionary income), stands to be a headwind for the group -- as do higher wage costs. And ironically, the success of Apple's ecosystem is draining non-smart-phone retail sales.

On the other hand, a tightening U.S. job market should result in some improvement in consumer disposable income. But at the same time, recent rises in health care, food and other costs of living will probably eat into Americans' incomes. What I call the 'Screwflation of the Middle Class' remains a recurring threat.

I recommend particularly avoiding stocks of department stores and trendy, fickle specialty apparel. I have little exposure in this sector, as investors have already beaten the segment's share prices down. Vibrant smart-phone and sneaker sales are probably not a permanent 'affair,' and their recent growth trajectory is likely unsustainable."

-- Doug's Daily Diary, My Outlook for the Market's Major Sectors (Nov. 10, 2015)

Alibaba (BABA) -- or "Ali Blah Blah," as I prefer call it -- is down some $2 a share this morning despite lots of media attention over the company's sales surrounding China's "Singles Day."

Yesterday, BABA's Singles Day sales were tracking up more than 100% year over year. But overnight, they only tracked at around a +60% rate.

This deceleration probably accounts for the stock's weakness today. As I've written in the past: It's not the news that counts, but how the market reacts to the news.

I'll have more to say about the retail sector in an upcoming post.

"Since 2007, total debt has doubled and leverage is now 30% higher on a normalized EBITDA basis vs. the last 10 years. Goodwill, post almost $9 trillion of M&A since 2008, has also risen, adding about $800 billion to balance sheets, and is now 8% of assets (+100 basis points in five years). While neither poses an immediate terminal risk to the health of Corporate America, the changing nature of corporate balance sheets does raise the question, again, about the lack of organic growth and reinvestment post the crisis."

-- Goldman Sachs, What's Eating Corporate America? Leverage, Goodwill and FX. (November 2015)

There's a consensus view that the corporate balance sheets are in far better shape than at any time in the last decade, and that with interest rates seemingly poised to move higher, most companies are invulnerable.

But the common view that cash on balance sheets is at record highs is "The Big Lie."

Too few are considering balance sheets' right-hand sides -- i.e., liabilities -- and calculating net cash and/or net debt.

As Societe Generale's Andy Lapthorne has consistently pointed out, company cash balances may be above 2007 levels, but net debt is also about 40% higher than it was eight years ago as we headed toward the global financial crash. As a result, I believe that the looming trend change in interest rates represents a growing risk to U.S. corporations and to their share prices.

The reality is that imbalances are building and companies are increasingly exposed to higher interest rates. Other issues that I see:

• Contrary to consensus, corporations have spent the last several years re-leveraging. Net cash positions have dropped meaningfully and net debt positions have risen substantially.

• Net debt to EBITDA is at its highest point since the 2008 financial crisis. Total corporate debt has doubled from pre-crisis levels over the last eight years, while leverage to cash flows (EBITDA) is 30% higher.

• The above factors have resulted in the highest leverage ratios seen since the late 2007-2008 period.

• Goldman Sachs points out that while inexpensive debt has "only" resulted in a 40% rise in interest expenses despite a doubling of debt, "this is all good until you normalize EBITDA. Indeed, if EBITDA was at 'normalized levels' (which we define as median EBITDA from first-quarter 2007 to second-quarter 2015), leverage would move to 1.75x -- over 30% higher than the average over the last 10 years."

• U.S. corporations have spent the last five years leveraging up in the M&A boom, driving goodwill to decade-long highs and adding $800 billion of goodwill to balance sheets. That represents 8% of total assets, as well as a 100-basis-point increase since 2007.

• Given countries' divergent monetary policies (and the use of foreign exchange as a "weapon" in trade), American companies could face further exposure to a strengthening U.S. dollar and a forex hangover in 2016.

• The lack of organic growth and limited reinvestment opportunities mean more profit risks are ahead.

• Central banks' balance sheets have tripled since the Great Recession, yet real global gross domestic produce has risen at a disappointing 3% annual rate since 2000.

• The U.S. stock market's advance this year has been narrow. We all know about TFANG, but if it weren't for NOSH -- Nike (NKE), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Starbucks (SBUX) and Home Depot (HD) -- the S&P 500 would be negative for 2015.

The bottom line: The risks to the stock market and 2016-17 U.S. corporate profits remain high given:

• high net-debt loads

• deteriorating balance sheets

• the specter of higher interest rates, which will reduce opportunities to do leveraged recaps and return cash to shareholders

• rising deflation risks

• foreign-exchange headwinds and renewed overseas competition

• lower operating profits and widening credit spreads, which will likely further widen in a rising rate environment

Check out Sir Mark J. Grant on CNBC's Squawk Boxthis morning.

Peter Boockvar rounds up all of the latest data:

"The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped by 11 basis points w/o/w to 4.12%. That's the biggest one-week rise since June, as well as the highest level seen since August's first week. Refi applications fell 2.2% w/o/w -- the third straight drop -- but remain up 4.1% y/o/y. Purchase applications were flat at four-week lows.

If mortgage rates continue higher, the question will be what the 'fence-sitter effect' is, and whether we'll see buyers and refinancers running to lock in rates. While the Fed and many others only look at the negative aspect of higher mortgage rates in terms of housing affordability, the focus should shift to what it means to home prices.

The Fed's Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy left many first-time buyers priced out of the market over the past few years, but cooling home-price gains due to higher rates could now entice many renters to buy. After all, annual rent increases are approaching home-price gains.

Meanwhile, we saw little change in Investors Intelligence's weekly sentiment data. Bulls fell to 45.3 from 46.9, while bears rose a touch to 28.9 from 28.1. Those expecting a correction that they want to buy into gained 0.8 points to 25.8.

As I stated last week, the key difference in sentiment over the past few months has been the differing mix between the bear side and the correction camp. These numbers indicate that after years in a cave, the bears are becoming more confident that any pullback we see is the beginning of something more -- and thus shouldn't be bought yet.

China reported another mixed bag of economic data overnight. Retail sales -- a point of focus amid attempts to raise consumption as a percent of the country's economy -- rose 11% y/o/y in October. That was one-tenth more than expected, as well  as up from 10.9% a month earlier. It's also the steepest gain seen since December 2014.

Looking ahead, another 'Singles Day' from Alibaba (BABA) should give a lift to China's November sales. Alibaba said today that 'the whole world will witness the power of Chinese consumption this Nov. 11.'

On the flip side, Chinese industrial production rose just 5.6% y/o/y during October, two-tenths less than expected and down from 5.6% in September. The latest read also matches the lowest gain seen since November 2008. Foreign direct investment rose 4.2% y/o/y vs. a 5% estimate.

The market response to the data was mixed. The Shanghai index rose by 0.27% and Australia traded up by almost 0.5%. But the H share index fell by around 0.66%, dropping for the fourth straight day. The Hang Seng also lost 0.2% and the tech-heavy Taiwan Taiex fell 1.4% in collateral damage from concerns yesterday about Apple. Copper is also down slightly, testing its August lows.

In Europe, the U.K. third-quarter unemployment rate fell one-tenth to 5.3%. That's one-tenth less than expected, as well as the lowest rate since May 2008 and 100 basis points below the 20-year average. Employment jumped by 177,000, well more than the 120,000 expected.

U.K. wages also continued to grow well above the inflation rate, but increased a bit less than expected. Weekly earnings ex volatile bonuses rose 2.5% y/o/y. That's one-tenth less than expected, as well as a slowdown from the 2.8% pace seen in August. Wages in the private sector ex bonus rose by 2.8% vs. 0% headline inflation. Positive real wage gains are the best stimulus that an economy can have.

The lone October-only jobs figure reported was jobless claims, which rose by 3,300. That's above the 1,400 forecast, but the government revised September down by 4,000 -- so we'll call the latest reading a slight beat.

Just as Federal Reserve members have done, Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney is playing a game of chicken with the Phillips Curve by waiting so long to raise interest rates. But European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has made Carney's job that much harder in the foreign-exchange battle between the two trading partners, with U.K. exporters so dependent on business from the Eurozone.

The pound and gilts are little changed today following the jobs figures' release, but the German two-year yield was falling to a new record low of -0.36% this morning ahead of a Draghi speech. Negative yields in German bonds are seen out to six years. The French two-year bond is yielding -0.29%. Truly insane!

Here at home, there are no Fed speakers today, but tomorrow is a busy one. Fed members Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, William Dudley, Charles Evans, James Bullard and Jeffrey Lacker all get in front of a microphone. According to the January fed funds futures contract, rate-hike odds are sitting at 66% this morning.

The cash Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day -- and I want to give a shout out to all veterans!"

Some important reads:

• The Earnings Enigma

• Chips Aren't Getting Much Smaller, and that Stinks for Intel

• The Unemployment Rate Is 5%, So Why Is America So Grumpy?

• Ending China's Currency Manipulation, a Donald Trump op-ed in The Wall Street Journal (log-in required)

• Greek Debt Deal Would Encourage Mass Write-Off Calls in Spain, Claims Finance Minister

Goldman Sachs downgraded my recent short favorite MetLife (MET) to Neutral this morning.

MET is on my "Best Short Ideas" list.