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DAILY DIARY

Bret Jensen

Nothing Day, But After Hours Is Interesting

Doug Kass let me fill in on what turned out to be kind of a nothing day in the market.

The market stayed in a narrow trading range despite comments from the Fed that it may raise rates in December.  It feels like some profit-taking after a great start to November. 

We are mostly through earnings season, but we get results after the bell from Facebook (FB), where expectations are high. We'll also see numbers from Qualcomm (QCOM) and Whole Foods (WFM), where expectations are lower.

News is breaking that ISIS may have planted a bomb on the Russian airliner that was brought down in Egypt. It should be interesting to see how the Russians respond, probably pretty brutally. The news is knocking the market down a bit into the close along with a minor sell imbalance.

Activision (ATVI) had a nice day on some price target raises on back of its acquisition of King Digital (KING) this week.  As always, it was great filling in for Doug. There have been some good conversations despite a pretty tepid trading day. Happy hunting.

Position: Long QCOM

Meandering Market Wanders About

The market has continued to meander in a narrow range today and is slightly down across the board. Some of the softness may be due to Fed comments about a possible rate hike in December -- not something I believe will happen unless we get more than 200,000 to 225,000 monthly jobs in last two reports, which I do not see happening. More likely, some overdue profit-taking is occurring after big gains on Monday and Tuesday.

I'm watching Endocyte (ECYT) move up 10% today on good volume. Investors must have liked that it posted a smaller-than-expected loss and the company's comments. I have a small position in this small, promising but speculative biotech concern. It goes for $5.50 a share with today's rally. Analyst price targets range from $9 to $13.

Terex (TEX) continues to show strength after earnings on Oct. 20. The company missed on bottom-line results by four cents a share but easily beat dismal revenue expectations. It's another possible the "bottom is in" stocks in the portfolio.

Position: Long ECYT, TEX

AbbVie and Michael Kors Rally Amid a Mixed Market

The market has strengthened some since my last update.

Apple (AAPL) definitely seems to acting better since its earnings report, and is back above some important moving-day averages. Jim Cramer is right about the stock -- it's one you should hold, not buy and trade.

Elsewhere, we're seeing a little bit of profit-taking in the biotech sector after nice gains over the past week. But AbbVie (ABBV) continues to show good strength after great earnings and a dividend hike. Upgrades over the past week from Goldman Sachs and UBS are helping as well.

Going in the opposite direction is beaten-down Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which is off another 4% today and looks like it's heading to $90 a share. It's still too toxic a stock for me to touch.

In other sectors, one-time retail darling Michael Kors (KORS) is seeing its best day in a long time even though the stock has been one of the S&P 500's worst 2015 performers.

I bought this one too soon, but I'm happy to see the shares move up some 10% today on quarterly numbers that showed worldwide revenue up 12% on a constant-currency basis. The company also beat earnings estimates by 12 cents a share, although management lowered forward guidance.

Hopefully, we've now seen the bottom for this stock.

Position: Long AAPL, ABBV, KORS

Stocks Slightly Lower Amid Yellen's Rate-Hike Hints

Stocks are trading in a relatively narrow range, but are slightly down after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen hinted at a possible December rate hike.

Still, her remarks are only having a minor impact on the market given the many Fed "head fakes" we've gotten this year.

It's hard to see the Fed hiking rates amid the iffy economic readings that we've seen lately (outside of U.S. auto sales). Maybe my view will change if we get a robust October U.S. jobs report on Friday, but I don't see that happening given the so-so ADP private-sector payrolls numbers out today.

It's nice to see ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)bounce back a bit after yesterday's steep loss on the back of quarterly results that included some disappointing forward guidance. Long-term growth drivers remain in place for this generic- and branded-rug play.

Mylan (MYL) also continues to show strength as the "Valeant effect" seems to be wearing off of the sector, despite the questions that continue to surround Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX).

Elsewhere, we've seen an interesting reaction to earnings from Regeneron (REGN) today. The stock was up in pre-market trading as REGN beat top- and bottom-line forecasts and raised guidance, but shares are currently down around 4%. Of course, Regeneron had big move over the past month, so some profit taking should be expected.

Going in opposite direction is beaten-down MasTec (MTZ). The firm missed top- and bottom-line estimates, but the stock is up nonetheless. It looks like investors had already priced the bad news in.

Position: Long ANIP, MTZ

Stocks Open Higher, But Will Profit-Takers Win?

Markets were slightly up on the open, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit-taking today after Wall Street started November with two big days of gains.

Jim Cramer made a good point on CNBC this morning about what Allergan (AGN) can and can't talk about this earnings day. Its possible merger with Pfizer (PFE) is probably out, as is the planned sale of AGN's generic-drug business to Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). But the company reported nice numbers nonetheless.

Not to inject politics into the conversation, but I found the Kentucky gubernatorial election's results last night fascinating.

Although experts constantly called the race a toss-up, newbie Republican Matt Bevin won by 9% by hammering away at the Affordable Care Act (i.e. Obamacare) and the current governor's decision to expand Medicaid. That tells me that Obamacare is going to be a very big issue in 2016. Health-care providers than have benefited from program could be volatile as we get closer to November 2016.

The other fascinating number I've come across today is 282%. That's what McKinsey & Co. estimates China's debt-to-GDP ratio is right now -- up from 107% in 2008 before the financial crisis.

The report isn't getting much press. But with China's economy slowing markedly, is that a figure that investors should worry about?

Position: Long AGN

Futures Point to a Positive Opening

With less than an hour to go before the market opens, we still look like we'll get a positive opening based on the futures.

Earnings reports continue to come in fast and furious, although third-quarter earnings season will start to wind down this week. 

Some notable earnings reports out this morning:

  • Allergan (AGN) reported results in front of a massive possible tie-up with Pfizer (PFE). Like just about every big pharma and biotech concern, the company easily beat both top- and bottom-line consensus expectations.
  • Game-maker Zynga (ZNGA) reported mixed results, as per what's been normal for the firm over the past year. ZNGA beat earnings estimates, while EBITDA came in better than expected and management announced $200 million of stock buybacks. But on the downside, the firm also announced CFO David Lee's departure, while revenues continued to fall and ZNGA moved two games' releases to 2016. No wonder ZNGA has been stuck between approximately $2 and $3 a share for more than a year. It's been like watching paint dry.
  • Homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (TMHC)missed top- and bottom- line estimates. While home-closing revenues rose more than 25% year over year, TMHC saw some contraction in margins.
  • We got solid results from Wendy's (WEN), which slightly beat revenue and earnings expectations. The chain also reported nice improvements to gross and EBITDA margins.

Meanwhile, ADP's October payroll data came in about as expected this morning, showing that America added 182,000 private-sector jobs during the month.

Still, job growth is definitely on a slightly lower plane than last year. Expect Friday's key U.S. non-farm-payrolls report to come in at under 200,000 as weakest post-war recovery on record continues to muddle along.

Position: Long AGN, TMHC, ZNGA

Can Stocks '3-Peat' Today?

Good morning, all! Bret Jensen here!

I'm happy to be sitting in for Doug Kass once again on the Daily Diary.

We'll find out today whether the market can make it three days in a row on the upside, as November has opened with a big rally despite so-so economic indicators.

I really like the action we've seen in the biotech and pharma sectors over the past few weeks, after the former dipped a toe into "official" bear-market territory in late September.

We've gotten good (if not great) quarterly results from just about every major biotech and pharma name this earnings season. They're two of the few market sectors that have reported both solid year-over-year earnings growth and revenue gains for the third quarter.

M&A has also picked up in these sectors again after a brief lull. On Thursday, Allergan (AGN) and Pfizer (PFE) disclosed talks toward a megamerger than would create a more-than-$300-billion behemoth. Whether such a deal could ever pass regulatory muster remains subject to debate, but the tie-up would result in over $2 billion in annual tax savings and other economies of scale if it happens.

Meanwhile, Shire (SHPG)announced plans Monday to buy Dyax (DYAX) for some $6 billion. Shire is also continuing to pursue Baxalta (BXLT)in a separate takeover attempt worth some $30 billion.

Overseas, the October Chinese services PMI came in strong overnight even as the Middle Kingdom's manufacturing readings continue to look very weak. Maybe authorities there are starting to achieve their goal of a more consumer-led economy.

The PMI numbers certainly helped the Chinese stock market, which rallied by some 4%. Stocks were also buoyed by a potential trading link between Shenzhen and Hong Kong by year's end (or at least rumors of one).

What's on everyone else's mind this morning?

Position: Long AGN
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-30.77%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-11.58%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+14.23%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+17.80%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-19.25%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-11.42%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-23.42%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+32.77%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+66.93%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+79.01%