• I am calling it a day and a week.

Thanks for reading my diary. Next week, you will see my 15 suprises for 2015. Enjoy the weekend!

• I am also selling some Devon (DVN) off now.

• It is always amazing to listen to the "talking heads" in the business media.

It reminds me how vision is 20/20 in the rear view mirror. If the market has been up nine out of the last 10 weeks, and each of the last seven trading days, it follows, to most, that we can extrapolate those gains.

Oh, how investors (and commentators) prefer being part of the herd and the crowd. Another lesson learned.

• Chevron (CVX) is up $4 per share over the last four to five trading days.

This happened during a period in which the price of crude oil has steadily moved lower. I am going to pare back a bit on this name. Speaking of crude, it's another $1.25 per barrel lower today, and (obviously) continues to look weak.

• Crude's loss is accelerating, now down $0.93 to $54.93.

• Here is a good chart which shows the distribution of annual returns in the market.

• Crude back down to close to $55 per barrel and at the low of the day.

• One of my big Surprises (and themes) for 2015 is in response to these questions.

In a paperless and cloud(y) world are we, as investors and as citizens, as safe as the markets assume?

And, with geopolitical coordination of the G6 at an all-time low, if the wheels do come off, how slow and inept will the reaction be?

• Here is a fact I guarantee you won't hear in the business media's utterings.

According to Factset, the percentage of companies that are issuing negative EPS guidance is more than 80% (87 out of 108 companies).

That ratio is well above the five-year average.  

• The Russell 2000 Index makes a new high and is now +16.7% higher than the October, 2014 low.

• I am currently about 10% net short.

• See the chart.

Good stuff from Lipper, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs on underperformance in 2014.

Large-Cap Core Mutual Funds Performance

Source: Lipper, FactSet, Goldman Sachs

View Chart »View in New Window »

• Adding back to Monitise.

As I suggested months ago, I am slowly adding back to my Monitise (MONIF) stake during the tax selling season pressure.

• Recommended Reading 

Good stuff from Downtown Josh Brown on January seasonals, after a strong market rise in the prior year.

• Japan's November Industrial Production

Japan's November Industrial Production falls by -0.6% (estimate was +0.8%). Year-over-year output fell by -3.8% (estimate was -2.4%).

• On Monday I will deliver my 15 Surprises for 2015.  I think it is my most interesting list in years.

Here are my 10 also-ran Surprises for 2015 that I had considered but didn't make the top 15.

1. China's Real GDP growth falls below 5% in 2015 as economic growth decelerates markedly in the second half of the year.
2. An accounting "discrepancy" is found at Alibaba (BABA). The shares plummet and the hedge fund community feels the pain.
3. Under pressure from suppliers and a falling stock price, Ron Johnson is installed as CEO of Sears Holdings (SHLD).
4. George Soros makes $2.5 billion by shorting German Bunds.
5. The price of crude oil drops below $40 a barrel in the second half of 2015.
6. The consumer price index turns negative (year over year).
7. IBM (IBM) whiffs and the share price drops below $125 a share. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) suffers a near-$4 billion loss (on paper). At Buffett's suggestion, senior management is replaced.
8. Warren Buffett announces his successor.
9. Uber goes public at a $50 billion capitalization. The share price never exceeds the IPO price in 2015.
10. Monitise's (MONIF) subscription adds far outpace expectations this year. (The shares double in price).