• "One More Thing" (Part Deux). -- Lt. Columbo

 This time it's Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

• "One more thing." -- Lt. Columbo

There was a market imbalance to the buy side of $1.325 billion at 3:47 p.m. EST.

• And making a phone call.

I have a call at 3:30 p.m. with the management of a new long I have been working on, so I am calling it a day.

Enjoy your evening and thanks for reading my Diary today.

• Why I stay away from basic-materials stocks. 

The price of any commodity is notoriously difficult to predict. That is one of the reasons I stay away from basic-materials stocks. Personally, I have no clue where the price of oil is going in the short to intermediate term. But as I have written recently, few are willing to say, "I don't know."

Over the last two weeks, I have been listening to a lot of talking heads forecast (sometimes with precision and self-confidence) the price of oil for 2015. Much like economists who universally forecast higher interest rates in 2014, I am not aware of many who are currently making projections that got the price of oil correct this year. In light of this, why should we value their forecasts?

At the very least, those making forecasts should be asked to see their demand/supply models that underscore their forecasts -- if they have any rigorous analysis. Gut feelings won't do (for me) because the penalty of being wrong in the equity markets (as we have witnessed recently) in commodities forecasts can be severe.

• The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is now less than 3% again.

• Making a 2014 high.

Banks are doing better this week, with Citigroup (C) making a 2014 high. I wouldn't chase this Best Ideas member, either. Here is the case for the bank.

• Slow and steady wins the race.

Today Invesco Trust for Investment (VGM) and Nuveen Premium Income Municipal (NPM), two more closed-end municipal bond funds are +1% on the day.

• From Sir Arthur Cashin:

Said to be making the rounds in Moscow: What do Putin, Brent Crude and the Ruble have in common? They will all be 63 next year.

Run rate at 1:00 projects to an NYSE final volume of 700/780 million shares.

Sorry for gap, by the way, I had a doctor appointment. He says I will live long enough to pay the bill.

• HYG and JNK should be on your screen.

High-yield indicators iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Debt ETF (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yields Corporate Bond ETF (JNK) should continue to be on everyone's screen in order to gauge pressure on the junk bond market (particularly from energy related credits).

•  More than we've seen in a while.

I would observe that there is more dispersion between groups today than in a while.

Leading sectors include energy, materials and selected technology, while the safe haven and defensives are lagging (staples, utilities, telecoms (ongoing price concerns following Sprint (S) announcement earlier in the week)).

Internet/social media are conspicuously weak.

• But I wouldn't chase.

Two Best Idea List members, Oaktree (OAK) and Potash (POT), doing well again today. But I wouldn't chase here.

• From Sir Arthur Cashin. 

Dow is the leader despite difficulty getting early traction. S&P resistance band at 2075/2078. 

Russell still plays the caboose. Run rate later but so far looks in line with Tuesday's volume.

• Following yesterday's unusual options activity.

I had mentioned Danaher (DHR) in a post yesterday.

Today the shares continue to rise in conspicuous trading.

• At 20%.

I am back up to 20% net short. My largest single position is a short in the Nasdaq via the PowerSharesQQQ (QQQ).

• At the Citigroup conference.

The shares are liking these.          

• Demand growth expected to keep market relatively balanced
• Anticipate demand growth of 2.5% to 3.0% from 2014 levels
• Operating rates anticipated in the 85%-90% range
• Majority of new capability from PotashCorp and other Canpotex members
• Approximately 40% of new capability from Potash by 2019; Canpotex members represent around 60%.
• Company anticipates reduced volatility
• Supply-demand environment expected to be more balanced
• Nitrogen is almost one-third of the business the company receives a premium as a potash producer.

• From Zero Hedge.

But all the clever talking heads (the same ones that to-a-man saw rising rates this year) keep telling us that wage inflation is coming any minute, it has to right, and will create escape velocity and nirvana on American soil. Sorry, nope. Unit labor costs dropped 1.0% in Q3 against a 0.3% preliminary print and expectations of a mere 0.2% drop (the 4th missing quarter of th elast 5 and lowest growth since Q4 2013. What is more problematic is real hourly compensation was revised drastically lower - quite a plunge.

Unit Labor costs dropped for the 2nd quarter in a row...missing for the 4th quarter of the last 5.

• Inaugural move of the session.

I just added to my SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) short at $207.55.

My first trade of the day.

In today's session my favorite asset class, closed-end municipal bond funds, are extending their gains from yesterday. Here they are again:

• BlackRock Municipal Target Term Trust (BTT),
• Eaton Vance Municipal Income (ETX),
• BlackRock Investment Quality Municipal Trust (BKN),
• Nuveen Select Quality Municipal (NQS),
• Nuveen Premium Income Municipal (NPM),
• Nuveen Dividend Advantage Municipal Fund (NAD),
• NuveenMunicipal Market Opportunity Fund (NMO),
• Nuveen Municipal Advantage Fund (NMA),
• Invesco Pennsylvania Value Muni (VPV),
• Invesco California Value Municipal (VCV),
• Nuveen Quality Income Municipal Fund (NQU),
• Nuveen Premium Income Municipal (NPI),
• Invesco Trust for Investment (VGM), and
• Nuveen New York AMT-Free Municipal (NRK)

• From Deirdre Bosa

• Here it is.

I am currently about 15% net short.

• The main points.

Potash (POT) management spoke at Citigroup's Basic Materials Conference.

Here are the salient highlights:

• Company says it can respond to "any market condition" and that it is well positioned in its space.

• It is a low-cost supplier to key consuming regions of the world.

• The company's operational capability is aligned with anticipated near-term demand.

• Potash has flexibility to grow future sales volumes.

Here is my last update on Potash.

• Not a bear extant this week.

End of message.

• Rails are at risk, too.

Sanford Bernstein says this morning that, if you are negative on the low oil prices, you should also be negative on the rail sector, owing to a reduced production outlook and the importance of transporting drilling materials. Lower revenue per unit and lower fuel surcharges are a headwind to earnings per share (EPS), according to the brokerage.

• Rollover in the MACD?

As most subscribers recognize, I am technically challenged.

So to Rev, TC, Bobby, Dvine and others: Is the market's daily momentum waning with a possible rollover in daily moving-average convergence-divergence (MACD) indicator?

Talk amongst yourselves!

• Just curious.

Here's a question for BlackRock (BLK) Larry Fink, who's on Squawk Box on CNBC right now.

Two-year sovereign debt yields in Germany, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands, Austria and Japan are negative today.

What does that mean or say to you?

Should this be construed as a positive or a negative? 

This morning it was reported that mortgage applications fell by another 7.3%.

It must be the low mortgage rates (sic).

• Another installment.

Occasionally I post something that replicates the theme of The Chris Matthews Show segment, "Tell Me Something I Don't Know." 

OK, Dougie, tell me something(s) I don't know!

A list of random facts:

• The S&P 500 Index has gained nearly $2 trillion in value (to more than $18 trillion) in 2014. 

• Since 2009, companies in the S&P Index have spent more than $2 trillion in stock buybacks. 95% of accumulated profits have been spent on dividends and buybacks.

• The top 20 companies in the S&P Index account for more than one-third of all profit earned by names in the index.

• The total return of the S&P Index from the "Generational Bottom" is plus 243% -- 208% in appreciation and 35% in dividends.

• There are only 3,701 companies in the Wilshire 5000!

• The dollar price of the average S&P stock is $82.54.

• Almost 80% of revenue for FTSE 100 companies is derived outside Great Britain. As far as the top line is concerned, it is as American (22%) as it is British (22%).

• The assets under management of leveraged ETFs in the U.S. is $40 billion, or only 2% of total ETF assets. 

• The market capitalization of iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond's (HYG) is only $14 billion, and that of SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is only $10 billion, representing under 2% of the $1.5 trillion high-yield market cap. 

• According to Goldman Sachs, a 10% drop in the price in crude soil produces only a 0.1% contribution to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This is down a lot over the last decade.

• West Texas Intermediate oil fell from $32 to $10 per barrel from late 1985 to early 1986.

• Apple (AAPL) was 90 days away from bankruptcy in 1997. 

• Finally, the New England Patriots football team has had a winning record in 14 consecutive seasons. The next closest is the Green Bay Packers with five seasons. 

• Break in.

The nuclear accident in Ukraine is not seen as impactful.

• From Bloomberg:

Euro-area services and manufacturing grew less than initially estimated last month, leaving the economy facing near-stagnation as the European Central Bank considers its options on further stimulus.

A composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.1 from 52.1 in October, London-based Markit Economics said today. The reading is the lowest in 16 months and points to economic growth of just 0.1 percent this quarter, according to Markit.

• Owing to a meeting.

There will be no Market Setup this morning, as I have a breakfast meeting.