• As of 3:50 p.m. there is $2.1 billion to buy market on close.

"Out from the coffin', Drac's voice did ring

Seems he was troubled by just one thing

He opened the lid and shook his fist and said

Whatever happened to my Transylvania Twist?

It's now the mash, it's now the monster mash

The monster mash, it was graveyard smash

It's now the mash, it caught on in a flash

It's now the mash, it's now the monster mash"

-- Boris Pickett, "The Monster Mash"

• A Happy Halloween to all!

As "yutes," my sisters and I listened devoutly to the "Cool Ghoul" (Dick Clark gave him his name) and Shock Theatre host John Zacherley, especially on the holiest of days in Transylvania, Halloween.

Here is to John Zacherley, a Penn grad, one of a kind, and 96 years young! And, he did the Mash -- the Monster Mash! (Rare footage with Bobby "Boris" Picket and The Crypt-Kicker Five.)

• Good stuff from FactSet.

Check out its earnings insight report.

• We have two more winners.

Congratulations to my pals TonyLovesSoccer and Dr. Marky Mark, who win today's trivia contest. Both Tony and Marc will receive an autographed copy of my new book (to be published by John Wiley & Sons on Nov. 17), Doug Kass On The Market: A Life on TheStreet.

Both will be invited to my book launch party in New York City on Nov.18. Here is the answer: The anecdotal indicator I used to judge the health of the consumer was the amount of orchids sold weekly by "Bob the Orchid Man" in the West Palm Beach Green Market on Saturday mornings.

Thanks for playing!

• Mo Cashin 

I will try to check the records but I believe that when CNBC interviewed Kyle Bass at this ranch, he cautioned that markets should be wary of the BOJ pulling a Halloween surprise. So far, we are following the European pattern, churning sideways near the day's highs. Media keeps harping on BOJ and QE. Not that ¿ our yields are up. It's all about pensions buying foreign stocks.

• Please respond in the comments section.

Nearly three months ago, I instituted a trivia contest -- the contests so far have been won by subscribers Big Nate, Terry, Judge Smails (Chuck), Baron Von H, Rholeman, Chris Carlucci, Ishuuu, Putty, Bozzob, CG, FreakyGuy666, Diana, Techbanker, Thomas Swede and 1BigP1 -- with the first prize being an autographed copy of my book (out in mid-November 2014), Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on TheStreet.

Today, the winner will also receive an invite to my book launch party in New York City on Tuesday, Nov. 18.

Today's question is a tough one.

I use many indicators to judge the trajectory of the domestic economy and the health of the consumer. Most of those indicators are government-released but some are anecdotal (and a bit off the wall!).

What is the indicator I had once discussed (and forms a chapter in my book) that has to do with the amount of product sold at the Green Market on Saturday mornings in West Palm Beach?

Good luck!

• Oaktree Capital (OAK) is trading higher on a positive note from Bank of America 

The price target in the note is $58. I will get to the quarter over the weekend.

• Peter Boockvar at the Lindsey Group summarizes this week's important macroeconomic events.

Positives

1)Fed QE has been officially suspended (of course never dead) and the FOMC acknowledges the 14 year low in jobless claims, 13 yr high in job openings and a 5 handle in the unemployment rate. However glacial, a move to normal interest rates is a big long term positive but at the risk of a sharp adjustment in asset prices and economy in between. Lunch will not be free here I still believe.

2)The US economy grew by 3.5% in Q3, above the estimate of 3% and follows a 4.6% increase in Q2 and a decline of 2.1% in Q1. However, this brings the average year to date gain to just 2%. Defense spending and net exports were the main driver. Spending was light vs the estimate and gross private investment was up just 1% annualized but after strong gain in Q2.

3)Initial jobless claims totaled 287k, about in line with the estimate of 285k and compares with 284k last week. The 4 week average was virtually unchanged at 281k, the lowest in 14 years. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 29k off its lowest since 2000.

4)The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence in October jumped to 94.5 from 89 and well above the estimate of 87.0. It's the best level since October '07 and slightly exceeds the 93.4 print seen in August. Almost all of the m/o/m improvement was in the Expectations category which was up to 95 from 86.4 in September and vs 93.1 in August. Present Conditions were up by .7 pts after falling .9 pts last month.

5)On a y/o/y basis, home prices rose by 5.6% in August, according to the reported S&P/CS 20 city index. It's the slowest rate of gain since November '12 and I say this is a good thing as price gains need to revert to something more in line with income growth in order to better compete against renting.

6)Chicago PMI in October rose to 66.2 from 60.5, well above the estimate of 60 and is the best since October '13. New orders led the increase and employment rose to the best since November '13. Inventories fell slightly from a 41 yr high. The national ISM is out on Monday.

7)The final UoM October consumer confidence index rose to 86.9 from the preliminary print of 86.4 and up from 84.6 in September. It's the best read since July '07 but the components were mixed. The Outlook drove all of the gain as it rose 4 pts from September while Current Conditions fell a slight .6 pts to a 3 month low. One year inflation expectations were 2.9% vs 3% last month and vs 2.8% in the preliminary report.

8)The mostly comprehensive ECB and EBA bank stress tests are complete and only 6b euros need to be raised after what's already been raised in 2014. EU M3 money supply growth did improve in September by a 2.5% annualized rate which is the fastest pace of gain since May '13 which is coincident with the slowest rate of decline in private sector loans since May '13 of just 1.2%.

9)EU economic confidence in October which rose to 100.7 from 99.9 which was above the estimate of 99.7. Industrial confidence and the service side improved m/o/m with industrial though still below zero. Final consumer confidence was left unchanged at -11.1, the 2nd lowest since February but up from -11.4 in September.

10)There was a 22k person drop in the number of unemployed in Germany in October as their unemployment rate held at 6.7% for an 8th straight month, matching the lowest since the East and West joined together again.

11)French consumer confidence remained steady state at 85 as its been between 85 and 86 for the past 11 months.

12)Italian economic confidence rose to 89.3 off the lowest level since January last month.

13)While not what the BoJ wants but in the face of weak income growth, Japanese CPI moderates to 3.2% growth from 3.3% and to 3% ex food from 3.1%. The rate ex both food and energy was 2.3%, unchanged but holding at the highest since 1997. All of course include the tax hike.

14)Industrial production in Japan in September rose 2.7% m/o/m after a decline of 1.9% in August. This was better than the 2.2% estimate.

15)In an immediate response to regain the confidence of the markets after Sunday's election, the central bank in Brazil raised interest rates by 25 bps to 11.25% in order to quell inflation.

Negatives

1)In a desperate attempt to meet its inflation goals and to offset the soon to be reduced JGB holdings of its gigantic pension fund, the BoJ says it's not happy with lower energy prices because of its drag on inflation. They want higher energy prices paid with a weaker currency for a country that imports almost all of its energy needs now that all nuclear plants are closed. To quantify, the BoJ monetary base will rise by about $90-180b, modestly offsetting the Fed's $1T stimulus that is now zero. As the economic world is upside down, let's call this Econ (-101) instead of 101. I say to all those living in Japan holding your life savings in yen, BUY AS MUCH GOLD AS YOU CAN NOW because it will be the only way to save yourself from the collapse of your currency.

2)Japan's unemployment rate ticked up one tenth to 3.6% off the lowest since 1997. The jobs to applicant ratio fell a touch to 1.09 from 1.10 which was the most since 1992. Overall household spending fell 5.6% y/o/y vs the estimate of a drop of 4.3%.

3)US durable goods orders in September were down across the board, falling 1.3% headline m/o/m, .2% ex transports and 1.7% at the core level of spending (non defense capital goods ex aircraft). These figures were well below expectations of up .5%, .5% and .7% respectively.

4)Notwithstanding the recent leg down in mortgage rates, mortgage applications to buy a home fell 5% w/o/w, the 3rd week in a row of declines and the level is the 2nd lowest since 1995. Also, refi applications fell 7.4% w/o/w but after rising 43% over the prior three weeks.

5)September pending home sales rose just .3% m/o/m vs the estimate of up 1% and follows a 1% drop in August.

6)Markit.com's measure of US services fell to 57.3 from 58.9, the lowest since April. They said, "the weakened growth of new orders and downturn in business optimism suggest that growth and hiring could slow further in coming months." They see 2.5% growth in Q4 if this trend is sustained.

7)Germany reported its weakest IFO business confidence number since December '12 as it fell 1.5 pts to 103.2, down for a 6th straight month. The IFO summed up the report very simply, "The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again."

8)German retail sales fell a sharp 3.2% m/o/m in September, well more than the estimate of down .9% and August was also revised down by a full 1 percent.

9)French consumer spending fell .8% m/o/m vs the estimate of down .3%.

10)A Modi moment in Brazil unfortunately did not come to pass in Brazil after Dilma Rousseff was reelected.

• From Sir Arthur Cashin:

The action in Japan, primarily the amount of pension money to be put into foreign stocks, ignited what appears to be a massive global short-covering rally. Gossip says it requires covering not just bearish shorts but even some of those set up as hedges (due to hedge disruption).

The Japanese tsunami swept aside other market relationships and stimuli like oil below $80.

May take till Tuesday for market to "normalize" and that's Election Day.

Run rate later.

• All in all, this 'risk-on' mentality looks quite overdone.

Forgive me, if you must, for offering a variant view.

To me, Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise announcement of more stimulus last night smacks of desperation.

There are several reasons to believe the market's "risk on" mentality is being exaggerated today.

1. The BOJ move may fail in the face of failing Abenomics and flailing economic-growth prospects.

2. The BOJ move may fail in the face of a deepening and entrenched deflationary psychology.

3. The BOJ move -- causing an erosion in the value of the Japanese yen -- may fail in the face of weakening growth in its major export markets, China and Europe.

It is my view that, were it not for the BOJ announcement and allocation shift, the markets would have lost ground today. After all:

1. September retail sales in Germany disappointed.

2. September U.S. income and spending numbers were weaker than expectations.

3. Most important, employment costs (announced this morning) accelerated to a rise of 2.2%, as compared with only 2% growth in the previous quarter and under 2% in the first. Moreover, the month-over-month change in employment costs came to a rise of 0.7%, the swiftest climb in over six years.

We are experiencing another global liquidity high but, arguably, on fundamentals the market is overpriced now.

• My sole trade today.

My only trade today has been to short more Apple (AAPL).

• Feels like 1999.

I heard a story once -- as a matter of fact, I've heard a lot of stories in my time. They began with the sound of a tinny piano playing in a parlor downstairs.

--Casablanca

History, it is said, rhymes.

In some ways I feel the same as I did in November 1999, when I was short Amazon (AMZN).

That short position was going against me -- and, just as I am incredulous today regarding the confidence exhibited by investors in central bankers around the world, I was dubious then of valuations in tech and Amazon.

That day, I put my fist through the gypsum wall board in my office, and I broke my hand.

That day, Amazon was trading at $85. By August 2001, its shares fell to $8, making for a decline of nearly 90%.

Play it again, Sam.

• But soon

If that plane leaves the ground and you're not with him, you'll regret it. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life.

--Casablanca

If you had a gun to my head, I'd say the market is close to experiencing a blow-off high.

To be honest, my conclusion is not based on any rigorous analysis. Rather, I'm going off a couple decades in the investment business.

We will always have Paris. 

• As expected.

Citigroup (C), as expected, has rallied, and the stock is now $1.60 above last evening's low.

• I'll be hashing this out Monday

As I have recently posted, I am down to a small position in Monitise (MONI, MONIF).

I have a series of meetings most of Monday afternoon that will serve to determine my next step in the stock.

• As expected.

Citigroup (C), as expected, has rallied, and the stock is now $1.60 above last evening's low.

Long C

• On this action in oil and gold.

Wasn't crude oil's break below $80 per barrel a negative "market tell" for stocks?

Wasn't gold -- now down by $34 per ounce -- supposed to be a hedge against aggressive easing and more QE (from Japan)?

• Per Peter Boockvar. 

The employment cost index rose .7% for the quarter ended September and is the 2nd straight quarter in a row at this level which is the best since Q3 '08 and is above the estimate of .5%. Wages and salaries as part of this was up by .8%, the biggest rise since Q2 '08. Bottom line, this is very important for both income growth which is a positive and the Fed's benign outlook on wage pressures which if this trend continues, potentially further pulls forward the first rate hike. 

The Fed's favorite inflation measure, the PCE deflator, was in line for September with both headline and core rising .1% m/o/m. The headline gain was 1.4% y/o/y and 1.5% at the core. The core rate is 1.5% for the 5th straight month, now that's true price stability. Income growth, measured a bit differently than the quarterly ECI, in September was a more modest .2% and combined with the .2% drop in personal spending (down .3% on a REAL basis) vs the estimate of up .1%, sent the savings rate back to 5.6% from 5.4%, matching the most since December '12. Spending on both durable and nondurable goods were down, only partially offset by a gain in spending on services. Bottom line, the spending miss may trim Q3 GDP estimates by  few tenths.

• Plan to add to my shorts in the sector.

Competitive currency devaluations around the world are the death knell for the U.S. automobile industry.

I plan to add to my short positions on Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) on any strength.

• Kors gets a boost.

Positive comments from Morgan Stanley send Michael Kors (KORS) higher in premarket trading.

• A weakening yen could be another dagger in Europe's prospects.

There is a downside to the Bank of Japan's aggressive actions -- announced last night -- which included an addition to its quantitative-easing program and an asset-allocation shift by Japan's pension fund.

The moves should weaken the Japanese yen vs. the euro. That, in turn, would be another dagger in Europe's economic-growth outlook and a headwind to lift Europe's inflationary expectations.

As a result, it would be reasonable to expect European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi to move more quickly -- perhaps as early as next Thursday' ECB meeting.  

It's a QE world after all.

Nothing else matters for now. 

• Settlement charges are nowhere near those silly estimates.

As expected, Ocwen (OCN) reported a "noisy" quarter.  

To me the story was less about the weak operating results and more about the accrual of a $100 million settlement charge related to New York State's Department of Financial Services (DFS). 

Based on Ocwen's responses to me and others on the conference call, it sounds as if the $100 million figure -- which was far less than what had been bandied about, and which was one of the reasons I added to the position -- seems to have been Ocwen's bid to the DFS, and did not reflect difference between OCN's bid and DFS' offer. So another small settlement accrual is likely in the quarter ahead. But, again, it'll be nothing near the silly settlement estimates that had been speculated by some.   

Ocwen's revenue totaled $514 million, about $35 million below expectations. Adjusted for nonrecurring expenses, profit came in at $0.52 per share, or about $0.20 below consensus -- sales were adversely impacted by lower modifications and longer foreclosure-resolution timelines. In large measure, this was function of the National Mortgage Settlement's extension of foreclosure starts to 120 days, and all paperwork completed from 90 days. 

It remains unclear to me what the "permanent" level of expenses are for the company -- and that will be the key to determining the upside potential to Ocwen's shares in 2015 and 2016. 

At quarter-end, Ocwen's servicing portfolio stood at $410 billion. 

Full-year 2014 earnings per share is estimated at about $2.25 among Wall Street analysts, and 2015 comes in close to $3. 

I expect the shares to trade back into the low $30s in 2015.

• Here it is.

Not willing to admit defeat on his growth and inflation goals and apparently not happy with lower oil prices, Kuroda and 4 other members of the BoJ (4 dissented) decided to go even further with the same policy that was providing him results that he wasn't happy with. So, instead of expanding the monetary base by 60-70T yen, the BoJ will now do so by 80T yen (an increase of about $90b-$180b). Kuroda in his press conference gave his own Mario Draghi call to arms by saying "we will do whatever it takes to achieve our price target." OPEC (especially Venezuela) and the US oil shale industry should be high fiving as Kuroda said "on the price front, somewhat weak developments in demand following the consumption tax hike and a substantial decline in oil prices have been exerting downward pressure recently." The BoJ will also extend the maturities of their JGB holdings (about 7-10 years from 7 years) and will also buy more REITS and ETF's alongside the expected increase in stock purchases from the Japanese government's pension fund. Gold is selling off in the kneejerk reaction to the strong $ and very weak yen but I say to all those living in Japan holding your life savings in yen, BUY AS MUCH GOLD AS YOU CAN NOW because it will be the only way to save yourself from the collapse of the yen.

Consumer spending in Germany and France in September both were weaker than expected. German retail sales in particular fell a sharp 3.2% m/o/m, well more than the estimate of down .9% and August was also revised down by a full 1 percent. The EU unemployment rate in September held steady but elevated at 11.5% for a 4th straight month. The EU CPI in October ticked up one tenth to .4% y/o/y from .3% but the core rate was lower by one tenth to .7% y/o/y growth vs .8%.

The Russian central bank was more aggressive than expected in defending the rouble as they hiked interest rates by 150 bps to 9.5% vs expectations of a 50 bp hike. The rouble is however lower but only after yesterday's sharp rally in anticipation of some move today. The Russian Micex is up for a 6th straight day.

• After yesterday's announcement.

I added to my Citigroup (C) long last night on the announcement of the additional legal charge -- and the ensuing share-price weakness.

I will be at a breakfast meeting today, and there will be no Market Setup column.

• Enter Japan.

Japan moves all-in. 

It's "a QE world after all."