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DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

Signing Off

  • Enjoy your evening.

Thanks for reading my Diary today. I hope it was helpful.

Enjoy the evening. And please say a prayer for my pal/buddy/friend Uncle Vinnie.

Position: None

Buy Market on Close

At 3:47 p.m. there was $800 million to buy market on close.

Position: None

Tallying Up

  • I'm ending the day at about 15% net short.
Position: None

Inconceivable!

  • Damnedest market I have ever seen.
Position: None

Ocwen 'Going Plaid'

  • And into overdrive.

Ocwen (OCN) is going plaid and is in overdrive now. Here is the investment case I laid out this week.

OCN and Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS) are both on my Best Ideas list.

Position: Long OCN, ASPS

Added to Apple Short

  • Long Tim Cook/short Apple.

I am long of Tim Cook, but I added to my Apple (AAPL) short today.

Position: Short AAPL

Check Out the E-Minis

  • What I'm hearing.

I am being told by some of my friends in the options market that one account purchased more than 15,000 of S&P 500 e-minis at about 1:20 p.m., and the market has gain accelerated from there.

Position: None

What the Gnome Says

  • Can neiter be confirmed nor denied.

My Gnome is hearing that the aggressive buying in the last two hours was from a large hedge fund covering its shorts.

Unfortunately, there is no way of proving this corrrect or incorrrect.

Position: None

Mo' Cashin!

  • From Sir Arthur Cashin:

S&P gets a mini-spike once it punches above Wednesday's high (1991). Trying to work its way through previously noted resistance at 1991/1994 could set up a try for a new run toward 2000.

Position: None

Not Inconceivable

  • To me this market move is inexplicable.

Nevertheless, I have halved my shorts because my short position, for now, is dead wrong.

Position: None

AMX Pop

  • Break in!

America Movil (AMX) shares see quick pop following headlines: Softbank is considering purchase of AMX wireless assets.

Position: None

Mo' Cashin

  • More from Sir Arthur Cashin.

Dow continues to be all about Visa but it has helped pull the S&P into plus territory.  If the rally kicks into gear, watch for the resistance at 1991/1994.

As before, keep an eye on crude.

Massive whipsaw reversal in German DAX.  Opened higher then plunged vertically (circa 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. EDT).  Then climbed swiftly back up near opening highs by noon EDT.

Run rate at 12:15 projects to an NYSE final volume 710/790 million shares.

Position: None

Deterioration

  • Seeing some modest deterioration in internals of the NYSE and Nasdaq.  

Specifically, NYSE: Advancing Issues: 2445/ Declining Issues:1791. Nasdaq: Advancing Issues:1262/Declining Issues:1270.

Position: Short SPY, QQQ

Adding to SPY Short

  • I have added to my SPY short at $198.71.
Position: Short SPY

Ocwen Call

  • Going well, so far.

While i am still on the Ocwen conference call, I would say it is going well, and the price action in ASPS and OCN are beginning to reflect this.

Position: Long OCN, ASPS

Ocwen Calling

  • Nothing to do with Falco.

I am on conference call with Ocwen. Back in a while.

Position: Long OCN

Cashin's Morning Musings

  • Cashin's midmorning musings.

Early action is a bit deceptive.  The "rally" in the Dow is all about Visa, which is adding 138 points of the Dow's 91 point rally.

Keep an eye on crude.  A dip below 81 would raise anxiety and below 80.50 brings some pressure.

Position: None

Tell Me Something I Don't Know

  • Yeah, occasionally. 

Occasionally, I publish a column that replicates the theme of "The Chris Matthews Show" segment, "Tell Me Something I Don't Know."

Here you go.

The Dow Jones Average is up by nearly 110 points -- and Visa's (V) share price rise accounts for 120 of those points (absolute value).

Position: None

Where I Stand

  • I am 20% net short now and I am short (seller) on any rip.
Position: None

Good and Bearish

  • Good and bearish stuff from my friends at Nautlius Research this morning.
Position: None

Adding to QQQ Short

  • As high as $99.73.

I have been adding further to my QQQ short on a scale as the market moves ahead.

Shorted as high as $99.73.

Position: Short QQQ

Added to QQQ Short

  • Added to QQQ short at $99.49 short.
Position: Short QQQ

My Take on GDP

  • My thoughts on GDP.

* Better headline, weaker internals

* Government consumption added +0.83%

* Unwinding of inventory build hurt

* Durable goods strong (but peaking?)

* Residential investment weak

* Net exports strong (but peaking with strong dollar?)

* Capital spending slowed from Summer

Bottom line, just 40% of contribution to growth came from consumption and investment (weak, based on history). Government spending on national defense fueled the quarter, but not a sustainable source of growth. Export boost waning with strong U.S. dollar and so are durable expenditures (showing signs of topping out).

This report should be viewed as closer to a +2% GDP growth number rather than the headline 3.5%  growth.

Position: None

Boockvar on the Economic Data

  • Peter Boockvar on the data.

The US economy grew by 3.5% in Q3, above the estimate of 3% and follows a 4.6% increase in Q2 and a decline of 2.1% in Q1. This brings the average year to date to 2%. The price deflator of 1.3% was about in line with the estimate. The main contributors to the upside surprise was trade (net exports added 1.3 percentage points), driven by a 7.8% rise in exports and also government spending (added .8 percentage points) which rose by 4.6% led by a 16% annualized increase in national defense spending. Consumption grew 1.8%, below the estimate of 1.9% and gross private investment was up just 1%. Inventories were a drag of .6 after contributing 1.42 percentage points to Q2. Real final sales, which takes out the influence of inventories, was up by 4.2% vs 3.2% but is only averaging 2.1% year to date. Bottom line, while growth was better than expected in Q3, the key components of personal spending and investment was mediocre. We'll see in Q4 how much spending responds to lower gasoline prices. For those 35% of households that rent their homes, lower gasoline prices are only a modest offset. Exports were certainly a bright spot but in light of the challenges overseas we have to wonder for how long. Government spending on defense is certainly lumpy quarter to quarter. Assuming no change to Q3 GDP in future revisions and another 3% GDP print in Q4, this would bring full year economic growth to 2.3% vs 2.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2012.

Initial jobless claims totaled 287k, about in line with the estimate of 285k and compares with 284k last week. The 4 week average was virtually unchanged at 281k, the lowest in 14 years. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose 29k off its lowest since 2000. Bottom line, this very low pace of firing's alongside other data points such as 13 year highs in job openings and the unemployment rate below 6% did not make credible a repeat of Fed commentary referring to the underutilization of labor resources as "significant".

Position: None

Radian Beat

  • Huge beat at Radian (RDN).

The shares should gap higher today.

Position: Long RDN

Pre-Market Trading

  • I wanted to summarize.

As I have pointed out, I do almost half of my trading in pre- and after-market hours, as I often find reactions to be irrational or in the extreme.

There is so much going on in pre-market trading, so I wanted to summarize (with volume characterization and reasons).

Trading Higher

 +10.1% ALU (Alcatel-Lucent) -- earnings

 +9.0% LOPE (Grand Canyon Education) -- earnings, Piper upgrade

 +7.5% LSG (Lake Shore Gold) -- earnings (low vol)

 +7.4% BBD (Banco Bradesco) -- earnings (low vol)

 +7.1% AVP (Avon Products) -- earnings (low vol)

 +6.4% NVAX (Novavax) -- FDA grants fast track designation to H7N9 influenza virus-like particle vaccine candidate

 +5.8% TASR (Taser International) -- earnings

 +5.6% ITUB (Banco Itau Holding)

 +3.7% JDSU (JDS Uniphase) -- earnings

 +3.4% V (Visa) -- earnings (low vol)

 +3.3% PBR (Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras))

 +3.2% RDN (Radian Group) -- earnings (low vol)

 +3.1% NVO (Novo-Nordisk) -- earnings

 +3.1% CBSO (CBS Outdoor Americas) -- special dividend (low vol)

 +2.9% I (Intelsat) -- earnings (low vol)

 +2.7% CIG (Cemig)

 +2.0% ESV (Ensco PLC) -- earnings (low vol)

 +2.0% CTRX (Catamaran) -- earnings (low vol)

 +1.7% MTG (MGIC Investment)

 +1.6% MA (MasterCard) -- earnings

 +1.3% DWA (DreamWorks Animation) -- earnings (low vol)

 +1.3% COP (ConocoPhillips) -- earnings (low vol)

 +0.5% CI (Cigna) -- earnings (low vol) 

Ebola stocks: LAKE +42.0% (business update), IBIO +24.9%, APT +19.7%, VSR +10.4%

TRADING LOWER

-18.7% AFOP (Alliance Fiber Optic) -- earnings (low vol)

 -15.8% GLUU (Glu Mobile) -- earnings

 -14.1% NKA (Niska Gas Storage Partners) -- earnings (low vol)

 -13.4% PRXL (Parexel) -- earnings

 -11.9% RGR (Sturm Ruger) -- earnings (low vol) -7.7% AUDC (Audiocodes) -- earnings (low vol)

 -7.4% NBG (National Bank of Greece) -- eurofin

 -6.4% PEIX (Pacific Ethanol) -- earnings

 -5.3% PCRX (Pacira Pharmaceuticals) -- earnings

 -5.0% AUY (Yamana Gold) -- earnings, cuts dividend

 -4.6% WES (Western Gas Partners LP) -- secondary

 -4.3% VALE (Vale SA) -- earnings

 -4.2% INGN (Inogen) -- secondary

 -3.7% DB (Deutsche Bank) -- eurofin

 -3.4% BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya) -- eurofin

 -3.3% MT (ArcelorMittal)

 -3.0% AKAM (Akamai) -- earnings (low vol)

 -2.9% LLL (L-3 Communications) -- earnings (low vol)

 -2.7% SAN (Banco Santander) -- eurofin

 -2.4% MGM (MGM Resorts) -- earnings

 -2.2% UBS (UBS) -- eurofin

 -1.3% BIDU (Baidu) -- earnings

Position: None

Boockvar Weighs In

  • The Gospel according to Peter Boockvar.

While the S&P futures are likely being impacted by the digestion of yesterday's FOMC statement, the action in Europe is not helping either. European bank stocks are dragging down the region's stock markets and thus are still not getting any lift from Sunday's stress test results. The index is lower by 1.7% today and is down by 4% this week. The weak action also comes even after a slight improvement in EU economic confidence in October which rose to 100.7 from 99.9 which was above the estimate of 99.7. Industrial confidence and the service side improved m/o/m with industrial though still below zero. Final consumer confidence was left unchanged at -11.1, the 2nd lowest since February but up from -11.4 in September. Also being shrugged off was the 22k person drop in the number of unemployed in Germany in October as their unemployment rate held at 6.7% for an 8th straight month, matching the lowest since the East and West joined together again. The head of the German federal agency said this in the press release, "the current economic uncertainties are not appearing on the labor market." Let's of course hope this continues but labor market stats are historically a lagging indicator and we'll see how it holds up in Germany if the region's economy slows further.

On the Fed, while we're surprised by the shift to a more hawkish stance because uber doves still dominate the committee, Yellen could no longer ignore the reality of the data. Jobless claims at 14 year lows, job openings at 13 year highs and a 5.9% unemployment rate at the same time the participation rate hasn't improved in the face of 200k+ monthly job gains this year does not equate to underutilization of the labor market being "significant." As I stated yesterday, reality bites the doves.

 Ahead of Q3 GDP and jobless claims, the latest individual stock market sentiment read from AAII was little changed w/o/w but Bulls at 49.4 and Bears at 21.1 are at or near levels last seen 9 weeks ago in response to the V bottom in stocks.

 In an immediate response to regain the confidence of the markets after Sunday's election, the central bank in Brazil raised interest rates by 25 bps to 11.25% in order to quell inflation. The unexpected hike is leading to a sharp rally in the real to a 2 ½ week high vs the US$. While appreciated by the markets, it's only the first step of many that Dilma Rousseff is going to have to make if she wants to start generating both confidence from the business community and then followed by economic growth. The regions in Brazil that contributed 80% to the country's GDP voted for Neves.

Position: None

Ocwen's Noisy Quarter

Not, surprisingly, Ocwen (OCN) had a noisy quarter that was characterized by lower normalized earnings.  

Away from the operating results, surprisingly, at least to me, is that the company elected to take a $100 million accrual charge for a possible settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services. 

As I wrote this week, my optimism on the share price of OCN was based, in part, on the notion that the high estimates by some of a possible fine were far too high relative to past settlements and not consistent with the type of allegations made against the company (as few homeowners have been harmed).

I expect the markets to initially respond in a modetly negative way to the quarter, but, upon recognition that the DFS charge, will not likely be anywhere near as high as some have speculated and the stock to move in a positive direction upon consuming the release's details. 

Ocwen completed the purchase of 5.3 million shares under its $500 million repurchase program for a total outlay of $160 million. Through Oct. 30, the company completed the purchase of another two million shares (for $47 million).

The company is holding an 11 a.m. conference call today, which I will be on.

Position: Long OCN

My View

  • Let's hold ourselves to higher standards. 

When you see a guy like Apple's Tim Cook and compare him with the minuscule moralists on Wall Street, it makes you wonder how great this country could be if we held all of our leaders to a higher standard.

Tim Cook is a giant and hopefully he will inspire others to be great.

Position: Short AAPL

Recommended Reading

  • Non-business related.

Arguably one of the biggest news items today, this week, this month and in 2014 is this non-business related story about Apple's (AAPL) Tim Cook

Position: Short AAPL

No Market Setup Today

  • There is life after the FOMC.

There will be no market setup this morning. I am at a breakfast meeting.

Position: None

Goldman Trims S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts

  • Main culprit: the world.

After the close of trading on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs (GS) trimmed its S&P 500 earnings forecasts to incorporate diminished global GDP growth and lower crude prices.

The brokerage's revised EPS estimates are $122/share in 2015 and $131/share in 2016, growth of 5% and 8%, respectively.

According to Goldman every 100 basis point shift in US GDP growth translates into S&P $6 per share, while a similar shift in world ex-US GDP growth is $3 per share.

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-28.84%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-11.54%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+14.43%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+17.98%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-15.70%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-10.53%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-23.39%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+43.40%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+67.81%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+79.91%