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DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

Market on Close

As of 3:51 p.m. EDT there was $1.2 billion to buy market on close.

Position: None

Expanding Short Exposure

  • I am further expanding my net short exposure.
Position: None

Out of Baxter

  • I am selling my BAX long.

I am selling my Baxter International (BAX) long based on my belief that the company might modestly miss fourth-quarter 2014 consensus expectations. If I am correct, this could lead to a guide down in 2015 expectations.

More to come in the next few days, but I wanted to give everyone a head's up well in advance.

I am taking BAX off my Best Ideas List for a small loss ($70.28).

Position: None

The Fed Decision

  • As interpreted by Peter Boockvar.

As expected, the Fed ended QE today and kept the "considerable time" language, which is considered hawkish.

  • "Underutilization in labor resources is gradually diminishing."
  • "Solid job gains and lower unemployment."

I defer to the Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar for his analysis:

The Fed's $1T annualized QE stimulus program is officially over, for now as we know it's a program that many of them still like. Thus, let's say it was suspended rather than ended. Elsewhere in the statement and a significant acknowledgement in the improvement in the labor market stats, the FOMC said "a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing." They also said "there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program." This is a significant verbal step forward for a very dovish committee but also a way for the Fed to express their belief (and tap themselves on the back) that QE worked in creating these jobs. Their models tell them so.

On inflation, they mentioned that its currently running below its longer run objective, which we all know but also said "survey based measures of longer term inflation expectations have remained stable." They are not too concerned with the recent drop in inflation measures as they said lower energy prices were a main factor and they judged "that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2% has diminished somewhat since early this year."

The Fed left in the "considerable time" comment on maintaining the zero to 25 bps fed funds rate but we know this is now a worthless piece of the statement after Fischer said this can be defined by anywhere from 2 months to 2 years.

Bottom line, the acknowledgement of a better labor market and a softening of the "significant underutilization" comment likely brought on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser to vote for this more hawkish statement. If stocks rallied off the mid October low because Bullard raised the possibility of not ending QE or even doing more if needed as Williams said, this statement puts us far away from that possibility and this rally should be sold. QE was an asset price gift that is now gone and now the chance for the first rate hike becomes closer into picture. The 2 yr note yield is spiking by 9 bps.

Kocherlakota, who long ago fell off the hawkish rails and is the most extreme dove on the committee, dissented by saying "the committee should commit to keeping the current target range for the fed funds rate until the one to two year ahead inflation outlook has returned to 2% and should continue the asset purchase program at its current level." (Note: The underlining is mine.)

Position: None

Short Exposure Raised

  • I have raised my net short exposure up to 15%.
Position: None

Feels Like Deja Vu All Over Again

  • Buy Facebook or stay  away?

Orbital Sciences (ORB) and Owens-Illinois (OI) are reasonably valued businesses. Facebook (FB) is the space shot.

OI and ORB are down way more than Facebook on small issues compared to the amount of cash Facebook is blowing through (see yesterday's earnings release). 

Facebook, arguably, has a "moonshot" valuation and much bigger degradation to cash/cash flow, yet it is down the least. It seems as if Facebook investors are indifferent to real value (and, it seems to me, so are shareholders of Tesla (TSLA), Yelp (YELP), Twitter (TWTR) and the like).

What is the moral of the story?

Own Facebook and basically anything else because they are bulletproof. Investors simply don't care about intrinsic value. Or, wasn't that the logic in 1999?

Position: None

Recommended Viewing

  • Brian Moynihan talks with Bloomberg Television.

Bank of America (BAC) Chairman Brian Moynihan spoke with Bloomberg Television today, where he emphasized that legal costs stemming from defective mortgages are largely behind it.

If you look at the different components of liability and the amount of settlements, whether it's the RMBS cases, yes, it's behind us...Embedded in that is often the question, OK, that's over, now you can go concentrate on running the company. The answer is, we were running the company all along... I always tell people I could do this for a long time. What else would I want to do? This is a great job.

Let's go to the tape.

Position: None

Recommended Reading

  • On Amazon (AMZN), from Wharton. 

Amazon's Future: Looking Beyond the Balance Sheet

Position: None

Today's Trades and Bids (Longs)/Offerings (Short/Sell)

  • What I've been doing today.

Today, I shorted SPYDERS ($198.65), IWM ($114.49), Apple (AAPL) ($107.05) and more QQQs ($99.92).

I sold some Yahoo! (YHOO) at $45.63.

I am bidding for all 14 closed-end municipal bond fund longs, but my bids were not hit.

Position: Long YHOO, VPV, VGM, VCV, NQU, NQS, NPM, NPI, NMO, NMA, NAD, ETX, BTT and BKN; Short SPY, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, YHOO Calls

A Monitise Theory

  • Why it may be up.

This article might be fueling some of Monitise's (MONI.L/MONIF) advance today. We are back to the level I sold a few weeks back after Omega Advisor's CEO Lee Cooperman's endorsement on "Fast Money: Halftime Report."

Position: Long MONI.L, MONIF

Yahoo! Long Update

  • Now fully hedged.

With my upside/downside targets now generating a neutral reading, I'm now fully hedged with short calls against my long Yahoo! (YHOO) shares after the $6-plus advance in the shares over the last four weeks.

Position: Long YHOO; Short YHOO calls

IBM, Twitter: Desperados!

  • Strategic partnership announced.

"Desperado why don't you come to your senses?

You been out ridin' fences for so long now

Oh, you're a hard one

But I know that you got your reasons

These things that are pleasin' you 

Can hurt you somehow!"

--Don Henley and Glen Frey, Desperado

IBM (IBM) and Twitter (TWTR) announced a strategic partnership for data analytics as part of IBM's cloud service. Desperados!

Position: Short IBM

Watching IBM

  • Break in!

IBM (IBM) plans an "important announcement" at 11:45 a.m. EDT.

Position: Short IBM

Mid-Morning Musings

  • From Sir Arthur Cashin:

Negative Nasdaq (Facebook factor?) weighs on other indices, foiling the traditional FOMC Day pattern mentioned in today's Comments.

Run rate later.

Position: None

Ocwen Nonsense

  • Halted briefly on a headline.

Ocwen (OCN) was briefly halted on a headline -- extracted from a Height Securities research report -- that the company "may pay $40 million to settle the 'misdated' letter issue to mortgagees." The report is nonsense, from my perch.

Position: Long OCN

Yahoo! Off My List

  • Taking it off the Best Ideas list.

With Yahoo! (YHOO) more than $6 from when I added it to my Best Ideas list on Sept. 24, I am now removing it from the list. 

I plan to be a buyer, as previously mentioned, on weakness. But the reward vs. risk doesn't justify its inclusion on the list after the run-up.

Position: Long YHOO; Short YHOO calls

Added to Apple Short

  • I added small to my Apple (AAPL) short at $107.04 just now.
Position: Short AAPL

10% Net Short

  • I am back up to 10% net short now.
Position: Short SPY, QQQ, IWM

Sold Some Yahoo! Calls

  • Still long the stock and short some calls.

I am still long Yahoo!, but I have sold calls against some of my position.

Shares are up $6 since my addition to Best Ideas list on Sept. 24.

Here is my thesis on the name, which I will add back to on weakness.

Position: Long YHOO, short YHOO calls

HP and 3-D

  • Reduces the likelihood of a takeover.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) unveils its 3-D printing system. Should take more out of 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS).

Besides a competitive threat, it reduces the likelihood of a takeover in the sector.

Position: None

Adding to SPY and IWM Shorts

  • I added to my SPY and IWM shorts on a scale.

My cost basis is now $198.65 for SPY and $114.49 for IWM.

Position: None

Kill the Quants Before They Kill Our Markets

Position: None

Monitise Looking Good

  • Trading well in London.

Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) is trading well in London. Shares should be +5% or better in U.S. trading.

Position: Long MONIF

Short SPY and IWM

  • In premarket trading I am back short SPY at $198.39 and IWM at $114.17.
Position: Short SPY, IWM

Alibaba Gets a Neutral

  • From the Street of Dreams

Speaking of Yahoo!, Goldman Sachs starts Alibaba (BABA) at Neutral with a price target of $102.

Position: Long YHOO, short BABA calls

Recommended Viewing

  • My buddy/pal/friend Oscar Schaefer is about to appear on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

Run, don't walk, to watch one of the most articulate and best performing money managers in last three decades.

Position: None

Good Point to Take Some Yahoo! Gains

  • Repeating for emphasis.

This is a good spot to reap some Yahoo! (YHOO) gains.

I have sold some December calls against my position.

Position: Long YHOO, short YHOO calls

The Gospel According to Peter Boockvar

  • Peter writes about "Fed Speak," sentiment, housing and overseas stuff.

Outside of the official end of QE today, we're back to parsing the wording of the FOMC statement. "Considerable time" has been rendered worthless in telling us anything of significance as Yellen in her last press conference backed away from it and said to focus on the data. Also, three weeks ago Stanley Fischer said "considerable time" can be anywhere from two months to two years. "Significant underutilization" is the key to watch and whether it stays in. Notwithstanding 14 year lows in jobless claims, 13 year highs in job openings, and a 5 handle on the unemployment rate, Yellen & Co. will likely leave these two words in because they still believe in the excess supply of labor that is just waiting to jump back in to the labor market. This belief has proven to be false as seen in the participation rate which is not reversing. Short term interest rates belong higher but we know the Fed is afraid of reversing the monster they created. The monster being the tremendous addiction that asset prices and economic activity have had on extreme Fed dovishness. As I've said many times, there will never be the ideal time to raise rates after having them at zero for 6 years at the same time the balance sheet went from $900b to $4.5T in size. 

The violent equity rally over the past two weeks saw the Correction camp within the Investors Intelligence data rush back into the Bull side. Bulls jumped to 47 from 35.3 while those expecting a Correction fell to 36.7 from 46.5. Those in the Correction camp are defined as long term bulls that want to buy the pullback and boy they did. The Bear camp fell back to 16.3 from 18.2, just 3 points from a 27 year low. 

Discouragingly, the recent leg lower in mortgage rates has not helped one bit in encouraging people to take out a mortgage to buy a home. The MBA said mortgage applications to buy a home fell 5% w/o/w, the 3rd week in a row of declines and the level is the 2nd lowest since 1995. After rising by 43% over the past three weeks, refi applications fell by 7.4% w/o/w. 

Industrial production in Japan in September rose 2.7% m/o/m after a decline of 1.9% in August. This was better than the 2.2% estimate and this helped to lift the Nikkei by 1.5% and the rest of Asia was also higher. IP though still has not gotten back what it lost after the tax hike was put in place as the 97.8 index level compares with 102.2 back in March. A small business confidence index in Japan fell to a four month low at 47.4 from 47.6 due to a drop in manufacturing as the services side was steady. 

In Europe, French consumer confidence remained steady state at 85 as its been between 85 and 86 for the past 11 months. Since Draghi said "whatever it takes" in July '12, this figure has ranged between 80 and 88. EU officials have given France and Italy another pass with their 2015 budgets even though they both exceed the cap limit.

Position: None

This Morning's Market Setup

  • Where it began.

"People don't want to think. And the deeper they get into trouble, the less they want to think. But by some sort of instinct, they feel that they ought to and it makes them feel guilty. So they'll bless and follow anyone who gives them a justification for not thinking."

--Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

The rundown:

• U.S. futures are taking a breather: S&P 500 futures are down 3 points, and Nasdaq futures are off by 10 handles. 

• Europe is broadly higher. Germany's Dax is leading the league with a rise of 0.73%. 

• Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 1.46%, possibly in response to a better September industrial-production figure. No change in Bank of Japan policy is expected later in the week. The only down group was utilities -- Nisshin Steel, SUMCO, SonyJFE Holdings, Sumitomo Metals, and Nomura all were some of the top stocks in the Nikkei. Nomura was helped by its earnings report. Nintendo had positive results out after the Japan close.

• The China market is up 1.50%, reflecting talk of another People's Bank of China (PBOC) liquidity move. The market saw broad gains, with discretionary and telecoms outperforming. Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China both surged as the Wynn Resorts (WYNN) earnings -- published in the U.S. overnight -- came in better than feared. Belle International shares extended its recent gains (recall that earnings out from the company earlier in the week were strong). Ping An and China Life both rallied after those companies posted strong earnings. Boyd Gaming (BYD) was an outperformer on reports of new China electric-vehicle subsidies.

• Gold is trading flat. Crude oil is up $0.80 per barrel. Copper is unchanged.

• The U.S. dollar is flat, as well. The Euro is up 0.06%.

• The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is unchanged at 2.29%. Sovereign-debt yields are higher.

Led by Asia -- in response to U.S. strength -- global stocks are trading well overnight.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is the focus, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is due out at 2 p.m. EDT. In premarket trading, these companies are scheduled to report: ADP (ADP), TheCarlyle Group (CG), Garmin (GRMN), SPX (SPW), TE Connectivity (TEL) and Verisk Analytics (VRSK). After the close includes Allstate (ALL), Baidu (BIDU), CBRE (CBG), F5 Networks (FFIV), Flextronics (FLEX), Intersil (ISIL), JDSU (JDSU), Lincoln National (LNC), MetLife (MET), Murphy Oil (MUR) and Visa (V). Analyst meetings are scheduled for Kohl's (KSS) and Gannett (GCI).   

I was stopped out of my SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) shorts.

I reestablished an Altisource Portfolio (ASPS) long position and expanded my Ocwen (OCN) position, providing an extensive company analysis.  

Position: Long ASPS, OCN. Short QQQ, MET, LNC.

An Interesting Filing

  • From Bill Miller.

Legg Mason's Bill Miller has upped his Monitise (MONI, MONIF) holdings to 48.8 million shares. 

Position: Long MONIF
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-31.72%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-14.53%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+10.81%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+13.02%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-22.80%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-14.64%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-25.97%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+37.02%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+64.63%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+77.10%