• On Twitter

One last note on Twitter (TWTR): I did opt to carry some overnight with the close coming in well above $47.50 and well above the $46.70 entry from earlier this morning.

Have a great evening everyone!

• I underestimated this push.

Can the bears salvage at least a tie today on the big-caps? At this point, they would probably kiss their sister to do it. The more time we spend consolidating around the 2,000 level on the SPX, the harder it is going to be to push back.

And small-caps aren't going to provide any such break without an epic type of drop over the last 90 seconds. I have said it before and will say it again, simply stick with trailing stops, right-sized longs (you can sleep at night if they gap 5% lower) and hedges when needed and you can still play the trend. I would agree it is tough to put on new positions up here, so maybe consider some of the limited risked optioned discussed earlier in the Diary.

As far as a quick update on Ultra Petroleum (UPL), I underestimated this push. While I was bullish, I did not expect a straight climb higher from the $22s to $26. It is nice to get surprised sometimes. There is some heavy lifting into $26.60, though and I would expect profit-taking from short-term traders to kick in between $26.50 and $27. But there is nothing on this chart to be bearish about yet. A push to $30 in the next six to nine months feels very possible. I am in no way looking to be short. I like the January $26-$30 call spreads for $1.45.

Ultra Petroleum (UPL)

Source: StockCharts.com

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• Five More Charts: Baidu, Weibo, Zulily, Solar City and Shutterstock.

While the Nasdaq has been pushing to new highs, not everything is perfect in search. I have concerns about Baidu (BIDU). The stock made a strong push post earnings, but now has sunk into descending triangles. These more often break down rather than up, although above $220 and bulls can get rid of that pesky problem. The little push in the RSI is a plus, but watch this one below $212 as I think we'll see a quick $7 downside. There is nothing to make me act yet, but I'm watching it closely and just get a little bearish feel overall.

Baidu (BIDU)

Source: StockCharts.com

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While Twitter (TWTR) looks ready to rumble higher, the same can't be said for Weibo (WB). In fact, a close below $19.25 is a big yellow flag while a close below $18.75 is a major red flag. Unless, we see a push, I am looking for $17.75 on the downside. This would be one focus as the market weakens. WB should be one of the first to crumble based on the current charts.

Weibo (WB)

Source: StockCharts.com

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Zulily (ZU) is trying to fight off Monday's weakness, but without a close over yesterday's open, I think this bounce makes October $35 puts attractive. The $33 level should be tested at least one more time and failure there opens the door to $30. The huge short interest means a trader should absolutely define their risk.

Zulily (ZU)

Source: StockCharts.com

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I won't call SolarCity (SCTY) bearish, but I have concerns with the action in the RSI and MFI. To be fair, earnings did skew the MFI a bit, but here is a straddle setup with the RSI running midline and with price setting up for a solid $5-$6 move in the next three to seven trading days. Ideally, the monthly September would be about a buck less but still aren't bad around $6.75, giving the trade until next Friday morning to work. Under $70 and a trader could make a bearish play looking for $66. While above $73, a bull could look for at least $76, possibly a retest of August highs.

SolarCity (SCTY)

Source: StockCharts.com

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Last up is Shutterstock (SSTK), mired in a bearish channel and below support at $74. I want to short this on any move back into $74, as I ultimately believe it lands at $64. I wouldn't object to more speculative out-of-the-money puts for October, but understand this one comes with a high implied volatility and some illiquidity. It's certainly not one for the faint of heart or those lacking experience.

Shutterstock (SSTK)

Source: StockCharts.com

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• Facebook, Microsoft, Intuitive Surgical and Groupon made the cut.

By Tim Collins

I'm only picking out four very strong charts today. Tesla Motors (TSLA), Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) and Netflix (NFLX), you just missed the Diary cut today. I thank you for your time and better luck next time.

Now on to the winners: Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Groupon (GRPN). For the record, I did throw up a little in my mouth typing that last name in the group. These charts are necessary the four strongest from a traditional view, but they represent four strong tradable patterns.

Facebook has a strong price breakout today and looks to be headed into the $78-$79 area. The best part of FB is that it has very liquid weekly options. You don't have to risk much to get some $76-$78 weekly call spreads and roll the dice. If you just want a net credit, then the late September or early October $72-$70 bullish put spreads are out there for you. Under $74 puts the stock back in a range, so bulls will go back in the pen.

Facebook (FB)

Source: StockCharts.com

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Groupon has gone full gap-fill mode. I'm looking at $6.80 to $7.10 on the upside with a $6.15 or $6.10 stop. This one has no fundamental value to me, so I have no interest in selling puts or ratio put spreads and would likely limit myself to calls or some unbalanced call butterflies. This isn't a stock you would take home to mother. In fact, you won't even want your friends to see you on it. This is the mopeds of trades.

Groupon (GRPN)

Source: StockCharts.com

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Intuitive Surgical is a FB chart clone. Actually, it is slightly strong. Did someone say $515? I did. Tough to own this name, but a longer dated ratio put spread long the $440 strike and short 2x $400 puts has terrific thesis for this chart. I'd be willing to pay up for the premium here and grab $470 or $480 calls. If the stock goes below $460 or even $465, simply take the loss and move on.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Source: StockCharts.com

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Microsoft isn't quite there yet. There is a stone wall at $45.50. It's like the bulls blue screen of death. Set an alert to buy $45.60 or buy a stop into this one and forget it. Unless it moves above that level, there is no advantage to buying right now. Be willing to sacrifice 1% to 1.5% to avoid losing 3%-5%.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Source: StockCharts.com

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• Down to 1/3 the position.

Down to 1/3 position in Twitter (TWTR) with $47.75 as average sales price on the last tranche.

I am considering carrying some of this overnight. especially if it holds over $47.50 since there will be a nice cushion in the position.

• Don't overthink it.

Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) doesn't currently stand as high and mighty as its namesake for the moment.

Parsing through many of the current charts on asset managers at the mid-cap level or above, the best thing OAK has going for it at the moment is an attractive dividend along with a very solid return on equity. Unfortunately, it has some nice-size leverage currently, has a payout ratio limiting any increase in yield and plenty of shares left to issue, meaning a secondary or dilution could come at any time. Overall, it is a middling name for me. Don't love it. Don't have it. There are other names in the space that look better on the surface to me.

The daily chart isn't really worth much of a look here because this likely isn't a trading name for many folks, so scaling back to a weekly view is my preferred approach. There's both hope and despair to the weekly chart.

Oaktree Capital (OAK)

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Getting the bad news out of the way first, a weekly close under $48 would have me running away. Heck, if I could find rocket skates to get away even faster, I'd take the chance! Under $48 and I think we see $40 before $53. But not all is lost. The stock isn't below $48. It is holding steady between $48 and $50, trying to build a nice base here. We've seen bullish crossovers in multiple secondary indicators. Those crossovers come with a limited history, so we are still calling this hope. If I'm long, I simply collect my dividend while maintaining a hard stop just below $48 based on a weekly close. Don't overthink it.

• Some charts on the homebuilder hurt.

Housing charts look like a backward letter J or a fish hook here. That's not a good thing for bulls in the names.

Add the fact that many of the homebuilders saw bearish engulfing candles yesterday and the news gets more pessimistic. Note how the entire green candle from two days ago is completely covered by the red candle from yesterday.

If we look at DR Horton (DHI), we can see a bounce off the August bottom. For full disclosure, I owned a DHI home in the past and it was one of the worst experiences of my life from build to punch list to warranty and overall quality. Sorry, but it had to be said.

DR Horton (DHI)

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A close under $21.50 and we can retrace the entire bounce. A move over $22 can push higher, but I don't expect it to be much. Short calls or ratio call spreads could work here, but I slightly favor the idea of put spreads and using an in-the-money $22 for the long leg.

KB Home (KBH) is a bit better here. There are multiple support lines at $17.50, but I wouldn't be long under that level. The RSI is slightly stronger and I would much prefer to own KBH over $18 than DHI over $22. I would consider a short DHI, long KBH position as well, although there are some better homebuilder charts out there.

KB Home (KBH)

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Meritage Homes (MTH) is not one of them. This one was very similar to KBH until today. Note the breakdown on the price today. It does have a bit of a selling tail, but I think MTH bulls can thank the overall market. Bearish $42-$43 call spreads here would be my preference.

Meritage Homes (MTH)

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A good homebuilder chart? You want to run over and check out NVR (NVR), but given its $1,200 price tag, I'm not going to include it here. Beazer Homes (BZH) is another decent one, but let me play Debbie Downer here for a minute, which also means we can't talk Home Depot (HD), which is still in beast mode.

• Too much bull stuff today?

How about a quick gander into a few other things not working in this market. First up is the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 Index Fund (FM). While many other things are roaring to new highs, FM is starting to struggle. We have a small breakdown from a wedge within a wider descending triangle. RSI is leading price with a break below 50 and if risk comes off, how does it not come off here first? Short with a stop over highs looks like the play for those expecting a market move lower.

iShares MSCI Frontier 100 Index Fund (FM)

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Oh Canada, our home of tax inversions, but not necessarily a currency I want to buy right here. I'll stick an avoid on the Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) until itcloses over $91.25. A break below $90.50 triggers a rather large head-and-shoulders pattern with an $87.60 target. I would be willing to take a short shot in the $91 to $91.10 area with a tight stop.

Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)

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The Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) makes FXC look pretty. It's stair-stepping lower and there's no reason to fear a big rally unless we go over $132. There is a chance of an oversold rally to $130.60, but the next $5 here looks lower rather than higher.

Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE)

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• Adding a visual for IWM.

I simply wanted to add the visual on the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) outlook mentioned earlier in the comments section below.

This was originally done Friday, so the humps haven't been altered to reflect the current price. I would absolutely be wiling to take an aggressive short attempt around $120 with a stop at $122.55.

• I like my discretionary stocks together.

For someone reason, I keep food and retail together in my mind and often on my watchlist. I suppose it has to do with the discretionary nature of both tied into the consumer. Still, I can understand the argument of some to separate these two, but I'm sticking with what feels best for me. And spoiler alert, not every name here is bullish or looking good.

First up is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), or as we affectionately call it, "Rat Burrito." It's an unfair analogy because at least the company tries to use quality food products, but all it takes it one painful trade and Bob Byrne will brand your company with a nickname you may not like. This is an interesting chart and $690 looks like a clear breakout. But the false breakout last week really means $700 is needed for another leg up. On the flip side, under $675 and we could be headed to $650. Tough to buy and tough to short, but a ratio put spread looks like a place here. Something like a long $670 put and short 2x $650 puts going out no further than October.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

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And if we are talking concept here, then pushing to a longer-dated ratio and playing the risk of a gap fill, the long 1x $650 put and short 2x $620 or $610 puts looks fantastic. Go out to December and you can grab the long $650 put with 2 short $605 puts for a small net credit. If you were put the stock, it would be at a net cost of $560, or 17.6% below the current price.

I'm partial to Restoration Hardware (RH), probably because I stare at a desk and several chalkboards on my wall everyday that come from the store. The chart over $88.50 could be easy to love as well. I'd rather wait for the breakout here and be long calls or call spreads when it does break out. The $94 area looks like resistance, so a skip strike butterfly could work here, although one other consideration is the collar. The channel is fairly wide and well defined while the overall chart tilts bullish, so buying the stock, then selling the $90 calls to buy $85 puts could work. 

Restoration Hardware (RH)

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Michael Kors (KORS) is still trying to recover from a recent beating. The chart is running into resistance here, but may be headed for a gap fill of $86 or back down to new lows. If I had to guess, I would lean slightly bullish. But I don't have to guess. We have a nice pattern ready to break, which sets up well for straddles. If one goes with October straddles, they could give the chart a few more days to see if it breaks one direction or another and, if nothing happens, just bail for a very small loss. Time with the October straddles is not very expensive for a single week.

Michael Kors (KORS)

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Herbalife (HLF) finally looks read to make Ackman an honest man. At least maybe. It has a short side setup, but risk control here is very important, so simple puts look like the approach. I could justify bearish call spreads if my short call first leg was $54 or higher and my long leg would likely be around $60.

Herbalife (HLF)

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Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores (SHOS) is one I keep waiting to come to life. I'd absolutely be willing to sell October $17.50 puts here or get long the stock on a close over $19.85. Until then, just lurk. A move over 50 on the RSI would be a welcomed sight as well.

Sears Hometown and Outlet (SHOS)

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I may be late on Lululemon Athletica (LULU), which is the risk of doing charts the night before. Ratio put spreads long $40.50 and short $39 puts in a 1 by 2 fashion could work for September. Here, I would not mind a shot at a skip strike butterfly being long the $42.5-44-45 for early September (12) for about $0.35. I'd have to play with the strikes, but $44-45 looks like the target here. I would even consider financing it with a short September $37 put. There is an earnings announcement coming right before expiration, so it is worth noting I'd try to take it off early.

Lululemon (LULU)

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Under Armour (UA) looks great over $72, but worrisome under $69 and downright scary under $66 as a big gap dangles. I could see straddles here or simply waiting for a break over $72 to look at calls or call spreads with a target of $77. The stock needs some momentum here, though. This is a pretty tight range.

Under Armour (UA)

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• Checking two biotech charts.

I'm sure I'm not the first to say this, but traditional valuation on the biotech names is just a mistake. Drug pricing, pipelines, trial data, patents and a few scientific words I can't pronounce are the most important factors, but technicals do often matter here.

While there are clear winners and losers, this group often walks in line together, which is why I often look at the Biotech iShares (IBB) ETF first.

The last two days have shown us a nice breakout from a flag pattern. The target here for me is $286, which isn't terribly far away, but still a 4% move higher. Money flow and momentum are good, although they could be a bit better. Overall, until we are under $263, this one is bullish.

So, if I were looking at playing options here, I know IBB can look a bit premium pricey. It is a $200+ ETF after all. While a 4% move is good, it isn't huge. Also, IBB doesn't have the friendliest of option pricing, so combinations are limited to no more than two legs for me. While I'd like to think just calls here, I still have to respect the $286 price target, notice the slight lapse in momentum at new highs and remember $300 is just a little higher and people love selling round numbers. This one screams call spreads, something like the September 12 $275-280 spread since I think any finish to this breakout should come quickly.

The charts of Amgen (AMGN) and Celgene (CELG) have basically the same setup to IBB, so one could look there as well.

Biogen Idec (BIIB) will give folks in the space a little different look. The chart looks to be a cup-and-handle pattern here.

The origin of the move back around $283 with the apex at $344, a move of $61. We then saw a cup with a depth of $24, or 39% of the move, well within the acceptable range for a cup-and-handle pattern. Last week we traced out the handle and now we are just waiting on a close over $345 or maybe $347, if you are conservative about entries. The target here is $369 played out over the next month. If I were long the stock, then I would stop it on a close under $335. So, if I'm willing to risk $8 on the stock I will do the same on an option. Here, the September 20 $345 calls or October $355 calls would be my go to. I want to limit risk, but the upside could be strong.

• Here are 10 most-used options strategies and when I use them. 

I know I spend a lot of my time on the Diary discussing charts, but I also trade a lot of options.

I'm going to take a quick run through the most used strategies and then, when I discuss a chart or charts throughout the day, make a reference back to which strategy or strategies on the option side I would consider. Note, these are how I prefer to use these strategies. It in no way implies these are the only ways, most efficient ways or best ways. But they are my ways and that is what is most important to me.

1. Short puts -- I will considering shorting puts if I either want some participation on a stock that may go higher or if I am willing to buy it lower. I do understand the maximum profit is only going to be achieved through time decay of the premium or a move higher by the stock and is limited to the premium. My target here is a stock that is significantly overbought with a clear support level or one stuck in a bearish, but measurable, pattern. An elevated implied volatility is a huge plus.
2. Collars -- I'm non-committal on the stock. Usually it is one I already own and it has an upcoming catalyst that most often is earnings. I'm willing to exchange limited upside for limited risk in order to get past the catalyst.
3. Butterflies -- I find these as low-risk, low-probability, high-reward plays, but the reward only comes if you are near perfect on your prediction. Hence, the low probability. They do have solid potential if your thesis is sound. Generally, I will use these for a pin play or an earnings play. I want a catalyst or a very short timeframe.
4. Skip Strike or Broken Wing Butterflies -- I much prefer using these to traditional butterflies. While the cost is generally greater, I can expand my timeframe and maintain a directional or size bias without being punished if I'm not correct "enough." In other words, if I get the direction correct but the stock moves more than anticipated and closes outside of all three strikes. This is a strategy I will use most often even without a catalyst.
5. Simple calls or put -- I will use short-term calls or puts for speculative positions, often driven by a technical setup, but where I also want to define my risk. I will use LEAPS (very-long-term options) in stock replacement strategies for core non-dividend names. I usually need to see a dividend of more than 2.5% or even 3% in order to use the stock over a LEAP.
6. Straddles -- I look to straddles on coiled charts, a chart where the Bollinger bands are very close together in relationship to their historical width. I prefer weekly setups rather than daily setups and look to be two to three months out in time. I will use these around earnings, both before and after, based on the historic moves of the stock.
7. Strangles -- Why bother? I prefer sticking with straddles. Straddles have a higher premium, so I will simply have less quantity with the same risk. While my upside is slightly more limited with straddles, my probability is increased.
8. Iron Condors -- This is not a strategy I use often. I need to see a very clear cut area of support and resistance (think channels on a chart). I will use them when the implied volatility of a stock's options are elevated due to an impending catalyst and the historical moves imply a greater success rate of an iron condor.
9. Ratio Spreads -- I just used this on Trina Solar (TSL). I tend to use this approach as a quasi-hedge to the downside where I see clear support plus a price at which I am willing to buy or short a stock. If I don't have some target in mind, a hard stop in place or the willingness to exercise the position, then I steer clear.
10. Call or put spreads -- I tend to lean more towards the debit spreads rather than the credits spreads, but there is always a depends here. I use these quite often rather than simple calls or puts to try and increase my probabilities of success. These can cause frustration since they won't move like a simple call or put. Traders often forget about the delta adjustment of the spreads. I first outline what I'm willing to risk if I were buying a call, then simply buy that much premium in call spreads in place of the call, so I will find myself with a greater number of call spreads vs. naked calls. Although my upside is more limited, I will have a lower breakeven, plus profit significantly more if the stock ends right on the short leg of the trade.

• Scalps aren't big hitters, so stay realistic.

Intraday scalps like Trina Solar (TSL) and Twitter (TWTR) aren't meant to be huge winners, nor are they meant to be huge losers. It does happen from time to time where you caught an entry then bank 5% or 10% or even 15% in a day, but that is an exception not the norm, contrary to what many traders want you to believe.

Everything, especially on social media, will be glorified -- catching the low-single-dollar stock and riding it for 30% -- but what you don't hear about is the 20 other trades going against the person or maybe ones that just aren't too sexy. The TSL trade wasn't sexy, but it grabbed 2% in about 2 hours. TWTR has commandeered 1% in an hour. I'm fine with those. Frankly, those are better than average on an intraday scalp type of trade. 

If you keep your expectations realistic, then you can keep you emotions in check.

I'm further cutting TWTR to half size now (since my posts in the comments) as I'm happy with the 1% and want to make certain I stay in the green there.

• After all, the report wasn't too bad.

One last thought on Trina Solar (TSL): I don't think the report was too bad at all. For those willing to buy, I really like the long 1x September $13 put, short 2x September $12 puts for a few cents' net credit. If I'm put the stock, my cost basis is $11.

--Tim Collins

• Twitter is looking mighty fine.

Several traders I chat with are long Twitter (TWTR) at current levels, and the stock looks great intraday. I myself am long the stock at $46.70.

• Giving myself some room.

Taking a quick $0.20 on one-third of the Trina Solar (TSL) position to allow myself some room on this name today.

--Tim Collins

• I do like the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) for the long term. 

The chart shapes up fantastically from a monthly perspective, but the time to buy is not right now. I see the time to buy as either a retest of $34 or a monthly close over $42, which isn't very far from where we stand right now.

Why not buy right here? Well, you have price and RSI running into resistance. For those concerned about the dip in the MFI, it has not become a seasonal pattern, so I don't worry much on it.

iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI)

Source: StockCharts.com

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One other important point here is this is a VERY concentrated ETF. Slightly more than half of the ETF is concentrated in the financial sector. Energy, technology and telecommunications make up another 40% and it is only spread out among a few dozen holdings. A misstep by Tencent or China Mobile, and the ETF could be punished, so I would recommend getting at least a basic understanding in the top 3-4 holdings, along with comfort in the financial services sector of these Chinese-based companies.

--Tim Collins

• Taking a long on Trina Solar (TSL).

I've taken a pre-market long at $12.30 on Trina Solar with an intraday scalp as the plan. My stop is $11.75.

--Tim Collins

• M&A and the 4G negative dive.

Warren Buffett may have just stolen the headlines for the Burger King (BKW) and Tim Hortons (THI) deal, but what about the trend?

One inversion deal doesn't make a trend. Nor does two. Three? Well, a little bell should sound. There are quite a few companies trading around the world. But if you haven't already taken notice, a little opportunity bell should be going off right about now.

The homework at hand seems to be breaking down the financial characteristics of the acquirer and acquiree on these inversions deals to see if there are any commonalities -- current tax rate, marginal tax rate, profitability, ownership structure, board seat crossovers, etc. -- in order to compile a small list of companies fitting the profile as the next possible takeover candidate. The next step is simply buying a basket or basket of calls on those names rather than picking or choosing a single one or two.

This will take a little time, but I believe there is still time to dig on this one, especially before football season kicks off for some of us fans, so this week is the week to get started.

--Tim Collins

• But being wrong in the right way requires more than just being wrong.

I'm usually good for a load of dirty diapers with my morning opener, right? I might toss out some high and mighty speech or some holier-than-thou notion before we get into the meat of the day.

Let's make this one easy.

IT'S OK TO BE WRONG.

Yes, it's all caps because I'm shouting at you. It's perfectly acceptable for folks in the media, investment advisers, traders, hedge fund managers, mutual fund managers, company executives and even husbands to be wrong. Note, I left one group out, because according to mine, they are never wrong.

That's it. Plain and simple.

Then again, it's me writing here and you reading and I don't think either of us would be content for that as an opener, so let's push forward a little deeper and jump on the couch.

Being wrong in the right way requires more than just being wrong. It requires acknowledging you are wrong. That's what trips up most in the media. But there is a reason for this just beyond ego and it is your fault. It's my fault too, so consider yourself in good company. While no one likes to be wrong and many hesitate to admit it, it becomes all the more difficult with the selective memory of individuals. For whatever reason, whether it is jealousy, contempt, hatred, a bad trade in the past, a bad day in the office, or whatever, there are some folks who simply don't like others and will ride every incorrect call of the disliked individual for, well, forever. I wish I could say I've never been guilty of that, but I know I have and I'm wrong for it (see how that works).

I've seen folks talk about Doug being wrong forever on his short SPDR S&P (SPY) call or Telsa Motors (TSLA) short or bond short completing ignore the fact he has either been out of the trades for some time, admitted being on the wrong side or the trade or actually made some money on scalps within the larger positions. Now, before you jump down my throat, I won't let any bear off that easily. There's been a pretty big rally here for years now and the fundamental argument has held no weight. There has been a refusal for many bears to recognize its strength and I would put Doug in that camp, but he's not alone. And there have been many good individual stock calls as well.

It's not just Doug who is picked on, but this is his Diary so I won't fill your time with others (although we all know Jim C. probably tops the list of folks using selective memory to try and drag him down with a bad buy that never existed or no longer has a life). So, as much as you want someone to admit they are wrong, recognize it will happen much more often if the crowd's reaction is not one of taunting and ridicule when time is long past due.

A slight spin off that topic is back to one discussed here yesterday on Columnist Conversation, which was that of hubris. I generally keep the TV off most of the day, but bullish or bearish, television is all about hubris. If you aren't confident on television, you aren't invited back. And how easy is it for a bear to be confident these days? For the better part of two years, you've had your face ripped off and used as a doormat by bulls. And back to our previous topic, the television stations have to deal with the selective memories of viewers. If you've had commentator after commentator on saying to, "Get back in there and sell, sell, sell!" then chances are you won't have too many viewers left.

Hubris doesn't define the commentators, it defines the trend. Bearish-aligned folks, like Doug and Herb at the moment, will view those bullish as over confident. In 2008 and 2009, I'm sure many bulls viewed the parade of bears in the same light. Maybe there is some hubris, but it is made to look bigger due to the frustration of being out of position or taking losses or jealousy or even disappointment.

I do agree that shorts are being laughed at, but why not? The S&P 500 is up 50% since the start of 2013. If you've been bearish this whole time, you need a MASSIVE drop just to get back to even or to have the opportunity to buy at the same levels you scoffed at just 20 months ago. Bulls could cash out here, netting nearly 10% just this year alone and call it a good year. Bears don't have that luxury. A 10% correction for the 500 biggest companies only puts beginning-of-the-year buyers flat. A 15% drop in the Qs brings it into the red. Hubris? Maybe, but haven't they earned it? The ones are risk are small caps holders or only the most recent buyers.

There is a chorus of bears, maybe not on the television, but certainly in social media and subscriptions services waiting to scream, "I told you so!" But those same bears are frustrating and annoyed at the bulls currently screaming, "I told you so!" The problem is the bulls are already right. In the end, not everyone can exit at the same time, but the large-cap buyers from any time in 2013 and 2014 certainly have a lot of room to fall before they start feeling the pain. Unfortunately, the bearish I-told-you-sos may only have an impact on a small, few traders.

--Tim Collins