• Thanks for reading.

I am outta here like fear and doubt is on Wall Street.

Thanks for reading my diary and have a great weekend.

The ECB president made two old comments and two new comments.

Draghi made two old comments and two new comments.

The old comments:

1. Existing policy should stimulate economic growth.
2. The ECB stands ready to do more.

The new comments:

1. There is a risk that the effectiveness of monetary policy will diminish over time. (He doesn't see this as a problem yet.)
2. Since monetary policy can't solve everything, there should be more coordination of fiscal policy in the European Union. (This means reduced regulation on companies, lower taxes and an infrastructure strategy.)

• Here is his take on the ECB president's Jackson Hole speech.

Peter Boockvar on Draghi's comments:

Mario Draghi in his speech is basically telling us to be patient. The ECB took big steps in June and prudently is waiting to see the impact as the targeted LTRO and ABS getting ready to be implemented. At the same time, he's pushing back against those who say he needs to do more (even though he also said they could) in the sense that he's calling for government's in the region to step up their structural reforms and maybe add some fiscal stimulus. "It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy." He's actually calling for a boost in public spending which would be a step back from fiscal austerity. Bottom line, as I've stated a few times, expecting another round of monetary stimulus in the form of full blown QE (similar to the US and Japan) was unrealistic with the steps already announced in June and sovereign bond yields already at multi century lows. Either way, the ECB's form of buying ABS at some point will be their version of QE. The euro, while still down on the day, lifted a touch vs the US$ in response to no further announcement from Draghi.

• Here is his take on the ECB president's Jackson Hole speech.

Peter Boockvar on Draghi's comments:

Mario Draghi in his speech is basically telling us to be patient. The ECB took big steps in June and prudently is waiting to see the impact as the targeted LTRO and ABS getting ready to be implemented. At the same time, he's pushing back against those who say he needs to do more (even though he also said they could) in the sense that he's calling for government's in the region to step up their structural reforms and maybe add some fiscal stimulus. "It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy." He's actually calling for a boost in public spending which would be a step back from fiscal austerity. Bottom line, as I've stated a few times, expecting another round of monetary stimulus in the form of full blown QE (similar to the US and Japan) was unrealistic with the steps already announced in June and sovereign bond yields already at multi century lows. Either way, the ECB's form of buying ABS at some point will be their version of QE. The euro, while still down on the day, lifted a touch vs the US$ in response to no further announcement from Draghi.

• Economic growth is not valuation- and P/E-ratio-inflating.

I don't care what Stifel'sBarry Bannister says, the continued message of the U.S. bond market -- the 10-/30-year yields are down further this afternoon --is that economic growth is not valuation- and P/E-ratio-inflating.

• The Stifel Nicolaus strategist raised his 12-month S&P price target from 1850 to 2300.

Stifel Nicolaus's strategist Barry Bannister appeared on CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report" today.

To begin with, it is great that CNBC had someone like Bannister on -- as talking heads who have been wrong are entitled to present their views. After all, if the business media only had those that were correct in view on their broadcasts, they would have had no available guests from 2008-2010 (during the Great Recession)!

Apparently, Bannister has raised his 12-month S&P 500 price target from the lowest on the Street to the highest price target, an increase of 450 S&P points in his forecast from 1850 to 2300.

Bannister was, not surprisingly, self-confident in view.

Never did I hear the words "I was wrong" or "I don't know."

I don't even know what to say.

Well, maybe I do know what to write.

As a generalization, stay away from the self-confident talking heads who display little rigor and whose knowledge base is three miles long and an inch deep. They are often wrong but never in doubt.

Never rely on talking heads to determine your strategy and individual stock selections, and that includes me, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer and others. Always do your own homework. Get advice from multiple channels, and always consider always your risk profile and time frames.

There is no secret sauce, and there are no fractals that have the answer to the market's riddle.

Answers are garnered through hard-hitting research, analysis and logic of argument. And even when the analysis is well done, the timing may be off. This especially applies to the contrarian who can suffer from short-sightedness or far-sightedness.

Trend bucking can be highly profitable but involves much risk, as the crowd usually outsmarts the remnants -- except at inflation points.

Mr. Market humbles the best of us.

• When I am wrong, I try to say/write that I have been wrong (as I have been on my market call this year).
• When I don't know, I say it.
• I have learned to never be self-confident in view and to worry about what or who lies over my shoulder (especially of a Cossack kind!)

As Grandma Koufax used to say, "Dougie, honesty is the best (insurance) policy."

Let's go to the tape!

• And it's starting to work.

I am still in my short rental of Caterpillar (CAT), which is starting to work out.

• It continues to hit new highs amid mounting geopolitcal tensions and threats.

The S&P 500 hit another new high today amid continued geopolitcal tension and threats.

A friendly and accommodative Fed combined with a subpar economic recovery continues to move equity mountains.

As a friend just mentioned to me that "it is truly a strange world that investors occupy."

Read what Hagel says about the risks.

• Here is David Kotok's take on Draghi and Europe.

More on Draghi and Europe from Cumberland's thoughtful David Kotok:

He will do "whatever it takes".  That was once said by this president of the European Central Bank (ECB).  But he has constraints that differentiate the ECB from the Fed.

The Fed deals with a riskless security whose payment is guaranteed by the United States. The ECB has multiple sovereigns ranging from Greece or Cyprus on one end to Finland or Germany on the other. The creditworthiness gap for ECB sovereign debt is huge.

The Fed has the power to police banks and the US has a liquidation process (FDIC) that is nationally uniform. The ECB relies on its member sovereign central banks who deal with their respective national banks.  Think through what it means to try to develop a regional policy when the credit standard in Finland and in Greece are supposed to be uniform.

So Draghi has a problem. He is facing no growth in the eurozone, no inflation, Russian risk for energy prices and ongoing tension in Ukraine, weakened banks in some countries and questionable collateral. Add to that the need to achieve a consensus and Draghi is forced to move slowly. His "whatever it takes" is in a race with Godot and right now it is a dead heat.

The ECB may do some more QE with small business lending pooled loans.  The problem for Draghi is he doesn't trust the credit standard of the collateral that will be pledged and he is dealing with each country's central bank as credit police.

Europe in the broad sense is about the size of US. Only the United Kingdom has a positive story.  Janet Yellen knows this.   Thus the private conversation between Yellen and Draghi in Jackson is as important today as the one held between Bernanke and Trichet in November 19-20 on South Africa in 2008.

That is the speech we will not hear but it is a key driver for policy. It suggests Yellen moves slowly while Draghi maintains a zero interest rate policy for years, perhaps to the end of this decade.

• Europe's economic woes are both cyclical and secular.

Now all eyes are on Draghi.

The August composite PMI for the EU was quite weak. In all likelihood, Europe's real GDP will show no growth in second quarter 2014, and growth is likely to be under 1% in the current quarter.

The ECB has accomplished a monumental drop in sovereign debt yields through jawboning, but it is clearly behind the curve and should have already introduced quantitative easing.

The problem, as I see it, is that Europe's economic woes are both cyclical and secular.

What has been surprising to me is that as nearly 20% of the S&P 500's profits are dependent on Europe's economic condition, the U.S. stock market has been unaffected by lagging ECB policy and weakening macroeconomic data in the EU.

Indeed, the relative strength in the U.S. economy has attracted global investors to our market, seeing the U.S. markets as something of a safe haven, as money has outflowed from Europe.

A strong U.S. market benefiting from a weak Europe is something to be worried about, as it is a weak foundation for strength in equities.

From my perch!

• Here is his weekly wrap-up.

Below is a good summary of this week's macroeconomic events from The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar:

Positives

1)According to the minutes from the July FOMC meeting, more members seem to be acknowledging the improving labor market and rise in inflation stats are happening quicker than originally forecasted. The 2 yr note yield rises 7 bps on the week to a three week high. While I'm convinced the end of QE and ZIRP will not be pretty as the pendulum swings both ways, it's a process that must take place and only after rates are normal (defined as above the rate of inflation across the yield curve) will the US economy have a firm foundation as 7 years of extraordinary monetary policy is a house built on a lot of artificiality.

2)Initial Jobless Claims fell to 298k from 312k last week and vs the estimate of 303k. The 4 week average however did move up 301k from 296k but because the 279k print 5 weeks ago dropped out of this average. We're still near the lowest level since 2006. Continuing Claims, delayed by a week, made a new low in this cycle, down by 49k.

3)July CPI rose just .1% both headline and core m/o/m but the y/o/y gains were still 2% and 1.9% respectively. Also, the year to date average for headline CPI is running at a 2.4% annualized rate and 2% for core.

4)The August Philly manufacturing index rose 4 pts to 28, well above expectations of 19.7 and the best since March 2011. The internals however were mixed but the 6 month outlook was very positive, rising to 66.4 from 58.1, the best since 1992.

5)Existing home sales, measuring closings, totaled 5.15mm annualized in July, above the estimate of 5.02mm and up from 5.03mm in June. It's the 2nd month above 5mm after 7 straight months below and compares with the last 12 month average of 4.92mm. Months' supply remained unchanged at 5.5. Price gains slowed to 4.9% y/o/y and first time home buyers totaled 29% of purchases vs 28% in June, 27% in May and 29% in April.

6)The August Markit.com US manufacturing PMI index rose to 58 from 55.8, the best in this very young survey which is only three years old and is off July's three month low.

7)US Housing Starts totaled 1.093mm, above the estimate of 965k and June was revised up by 52k to 945k. Single family home starts rose by 50k to 656k, the most since December. Multifamily starts jumped by 98k to 437k, the highest since January 2006.  Permits were above expectations but it was almost all driven by multifamily as they rose by 73k m/o/m. Single family permits were up by just 6k.

8)Refi applications rose 2.7% w/o/w as the average 30 yr mortgage rate fell 6 bps to 4.29%.

9)The NAHB home builder index for August rose 2 pts to 55 and was also 2 pts above the estimate. It's the best since January as both the Present and Future components were up. Prospective Buyers Traffic also improved by 3 pts led by a jump in the Midwest but at 42 still remains well below 50.

10)Mark Carney saw 2 dissenters with his policy as the minutes from the meeting a few weeks ago showed a 7-2 vote to leave rates unchanged.

11)UK CPI in July rose 1.6% y/o/y vs 1.9% in June and below the estimate of 1.8%. With UK wages rising less than 1%, this is welcome relief as CPI has now risen less than 2% for 7 straight months after 49 months in a row above 2%.

12)The UK industrial order book as measured by CBI rises to 11 from 2 in July and matches best of the year. The estimate was 4.

13)UK retail sales ex auto fuel in July rebounded with a .5% m/o/m gain after two months of declines vs the estimate of up .4%.

14)Japan's exports in July rose 3.9% y/o/y, a touch above the estimate of up 3.8% but import growth of 2.3% vs the estimate of down 1.5% continues to be driven by high energy prices.

15)Japan's manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.4 from 50.5, a 5 month high and puts it back in line with the year to data average of 52.5.

16)I'm taking a well needed week off. See you in September.

Negatives

1)US Mortgage applications to a buy a home fell .4% w/o/w to a fresh 6 month low.

2)China's August HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 from 51.7, a 3 month low.

3)China's property market is showing more signs of deflating. On a m/o/m basis, property prices for new apartments in July fell in 64 of 70 cities surveyed vs 55 in June and just 2 in December. For existing apartments, prices dropped in 65 cities vs 52 in June and 5 in December. Also, foreign direct investment plunged by 17% y/o/y in July, well more than expectations of up .8%.

4)The EU manufacturing and services composite index fell 1 pt to 52.8, giving back July's 1 pt gain and matches the lowest level since December.

• I have just raised my net short exposure to 10%.

While I have added to Ocwen (OCN), Bon-Ton Stores (BONT), Citigroup (C), "The Mighty" Oaktree (OAK) and Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) this week, few stocks justify the risks, in my opinion.

I have just raised my net short exposure to 10%.

Since most of the market risk lies in the higher-multiple Nasdaq, that has been my target.

• We'll see in September.

Bottom line: IMHO, Whirlybird Janet has moved more to the center.

This might be perceived by market participants as slightly hawkish, which could set the stage for a more hawkish Fed at the September FOMC meeting.

• Are Fed heads even able to speak in plain English?

What is that makes Fed Chairs have to talk in jibberish?

Can't they talk plain English in which everyone understands the message?

• Here is his take.

Peter Boockvar on Whirlybird Janet's Jackson Hole speech:

Janet Yellen is not revealing anything new in her speech and is giving no hints at all about when short term interest rates will rise as that of course will be dependent on the incoming data. On the all important 'slack' argument in defining to what extent the supply of labor can meet the demand for it, even she is acknowledging the difficulty in defining it. She said "judgments concerning the size of that gap are complicated by ongoing shifts in the structure of the labor market and the possibility that the severe recession caused persistent changes in the labor market functioning...our understanding of labor market developments and their potential implications for inflation will remain far from perfect." She lays out both sides of the argument and also its implications for wage growth. She concluded by saying that going forward the Fed can go either way, the tightening can come sooner rather than later if progress on inflation and the labor market occur "more rapidly than anticipated" or can stay accommodative for a much while longer "if economic performance turns out to be disappointing."

Bottom line, the speech was an academic discussion that was a non event in terms of gleaning any clues to when future policy moves, past the end of QE, will occur. I continue to believe the 2 yr note yield is what everyone should be watching as a measure of the markets thoughts on this policy and the 2 yr note yield is rising another 2 bps to .49%, up 8 bps on the week and at a three week high as Yellen did nothing to push back on the revelation of the FOMC minutes that many on the committee believe the economic data points are moving faster to their goals than they initially thought.

• They're all wasted!

Aeropostale (ARO) is down more than 9% on earnings and weighing on teen retailers.

Teen fashion and retail related names the are in the red: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, down 2.0%), Quicksilver (ZQK, down 1.5%), American Apparel (APP, down 1%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, down 0.5%), Buckle (BKE, down 0.5%), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN, down 0.5%), Francesca's (FRAN, down 0.2%).

• There is an open debate at the Fed as to what strategy to employ.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen headlines:

• still unclear of remaining slack in labor;
• tightening policy is too soon as inflation remains under 2%;
• urges caution on judging recent rise in wages.

In other words, there is an open debate at the Fed as to what strategy to employ.

• Here is a summary of the firm's forecast.

Below is a summary of Goldman Sachs' expectations for Whirlybird Yellen's speech today at 10:00 a.m. EDT at Jackson Hole.

Market expectations:

Yellen will maintain a dovish tone, emphasizing the degree of slack remaining in the labor market using a dashboard approach ¿ ie multiple labor market indicators.

Potential dovish surprise:

discussion of the possibility of allowing inflation to overshoot.

Potential hawkish surprise:

increased focus on recent improvements in labor market data and the uptick in inflation trend.

• Bon-Ton has a lot of statistical value.

I did a run-through of Bon-Ton Stores' (BONT) second-quarter 2014 release this morning.

The company had a slight bottom-line beat relative to my expectations. (Losses in this seasonally insignificant quarter were less than expected.)

Bon-Ton's comp sales growth was 1%, about in line with the retail industry, allowing Bon-Ton to maintain market share.

The Amazon Effect

Gross margins deteriorated small as industry pricing necessitates promotion to maintain share. The Amazon (AMZN) effect means that retail pricing discounts will continue throughout the balance of the year. Margins were also negatively impacted by rising costs associated with the company's Internet efforts (which include higher costs of delivering goods). The company's swift movement onto the Web is a necessary but margin-deflating strategy, but it is not a fatal strategy. As a resulting, EBITD came in at $5 million compared with $8 million a year ago.

Earnings Guidance Lowered

Most of the lowered guidance ($10 million) was reflecting nonrecurring factors, principally a cleaning house by the new management. This is a commonplace move when a new CEO joins a company.

The new CEO's major charge will be to drive the top line -- her background indicates the required skill set. Former CEO Hoffman left for personal reasons -- namely, his family resided in New York City -- before he could complete the company's transition to becoming a more profitable retailer.

Guidance for full year 2014 is reduced to imply an increase of a bit more than 8% from storm-impacted 2013.

Bon-Ton had around $900 million of net debt (6% cost) at the peak of its seasonal selling season. The company's liquidity is in place and, unless sales collapse (not expected), there is little financial risk at Bon-Ton Stores.

From here, the company seems likely to operate at over 8% EBITD margins, which will produce relatively strong free cash flow.

The Conference Call

The new CEO did not participate in the call.

Bon-Ton forecast that EBITD would exceed $165 million this year.

The company stated its objective of reaching $30 million of expense reductions in 2015. Most of the savings, if achieved, will likely be reinvested in the company.

Though the absolute number of Internet sales is still low, Internet sales grew by 30%, and 2015's Internet sales will be aided by a new fulfillment center recently established.

Bon-Ton was upbeat about the fall sales season. Weather has been cooperative (always a key to consumer confidence and eventually sales), and the price of oil has dropped.

Bottom Line

With equity value of only $200 million (on a $2.8 billion sales base), Bon-Ton has a lot of statistical value. From my perch, it remains an attractive acquisition candidate.

The shares are inexpensive, and the upside reward doesn't appear to be reflected in the share price against the downside risks (which seem modest).

That said, I wouldn't chase yesterday's 13% rally in the shares.

• Here is Mark Grant's commentary, with an assist from John Irving.

The World According to (Mark J) Grant. (Note: Similar to myself, Mark favors closed-end municipal bond funds):

"They were involved in that awkward procedure of getting to unknow each other."

-John Irving, The World According to Garp

The financial world, for decades, has operated on the belief that they were involved in a "free market" that was determined by market forces. This is no longer the case and hasn't been since our financial crisis of 2008/2009. We now live in a world dominated by the central banks. The Fed's war chest, the ECB lending money at 0.15% to the European banks, the Japanese central bank invoking a yield of 0.50% for its 10 year and the litany is long and the conclusion is inescapable. The problem is that many market participants and then the economists do not want to embrace the rather obvious conclusion either out of fear, greed or because of the threat to their own standing. The truth is that we have to learn to "unknow" what we have learned and believed before.

"You only grow by coming to the end of something and by beginning something else."

-John Irving, The World According to Garp

It is not necessarily bad or evil that the central banks are such significant players in the Great Game. They have always been players of course, they have always been in, but since our last debacle they have grown and flexed their muscles and now dominate the landscape. Your opinion does not matter. You must find what solace you can in this because it happens frequently in life.

What is important is the recognition that the central banks are now in control and to make what use you can of that to invest your money. The Great Game has changed but then it is always changing and so you must adjust. It is painfully obvious to me that many people and institutions have had great difficulty making this adjustment which is one cause of their poor projections about interest rates and where we are heading. They have dashed about and used thunderous voices, steely ink statements in the Press and in other media and yammered about higher yields and what they would do to the markets.

Wrong, very wrong and still, to this day, wrong!

"Your memory is a monster; you forget¿it doesn't. It simply files things away. It keeps things for you, or hides things from you¿and summons them to your recall with will of its own. You think you have a memory; but it has you!"

-John Irving, A Prayer for Owen Meany

Then there is the talk about how bad lower interest rates are for savers. This is not necessarily the case. It depends upon if the savers adjusted or if they took the bad advice offered by many or if they re-invented their strategy as the central banks' dominance evolved.  If they were more in equities then they may have done well or if they were in long bonds they probably have done quite well but if they stuck to bank accounts and certificates of deposit they have been penalized. However the penalty is on them as that was their decision to make. It is up to every individual person or institution to determine what to do with their money and then, arguably, much of that depends on just whom they listen to in the end.

"People only ask questions when they're ready to hear the answers."

-John Irving, The Cider House Rules

So "The World According to Grant" says 2.00% on the 10 year and then lower and maybe much lower. It will be Relative Value and world events and just how hard the central banks want to push so that the world's economies do not become any more of a mess than we are in at present. Those will be the determinants in my view. The scarecrow is on the post and pointing and there is the Yellow Brick Road in my opinion.

So my favorite place of the moment is in Closed End Funds. I want a discount to the NAV but then Grant's NAV is not the NAV of Bloomberg or Morningstar. I look at what is in each fund and make my own determination. I take nothing at face value and am a great believer in doing my own homework. Returns of 8.00%+ are possible if you are willing to undertake the task of close examination or you can rely upon what I have found and utilized and we can discuss that possibility if you like.

These kinds of returns also can come from a number of different assets and so you also have to examine the class of assets producing the returns besides assessing the quality of the assets. It can be bonds purchased at a time of higher yields or preferreds or income tied to Real Estate or loans and even if you determine that the quality of the portfolio is good you must also consider the likelihood of continuing returns in a lower interest rate environment. Then there is the frequency of payments and one ace up your sleeve is always to buy closed end funds that pay monthly as that adds to the stated yield.

Great care should be exercised when making these judgments and a cautious approach is always in vogue. Then there is the manager and their track record and the fees involved and the process can become quite involved.

I have looked at hundreds of these funds and whittled it down to less than fifteen that I like and stick with for the longer term. In this environment I will take 8.00%+ yields than you very much and the cost of leverage is low and will continue to decline if I am correct about interest rates. By the way, always examine the amount of leverage in any of these funds and then the cost of it.

"You take every opportunity given you in this world, even if you have too many opportunities. One day, the opportunities stop, you know."

-John Irving, The Hotel New Hampshire

• Run, don't walk, to listen to my guest-hosting stint on yesterday's 'Bloomberg Surveillance.'

We have "trickle down" monetary policy, which is serving to "trickle up" to the privileged and wealthy with large balance sheets. This has been an exclusive prosperity ... and an uneven and bifurcated economic recovery seems vulnerable to a number of factors, some of them are exogenous (or black swans).

-- Doug Kass, "Bloomberg Surveillance" (Aug. 21, 2014)

My appearance guest hosting "Bloomberg Surveillance" for two hours yesterday morning covered a variety of subjects, including Major League Baseball, the art of short-selling, the outlook for the banking sector, the exclusivity of the current "economic prosperity," the bull market in complacency and, of course, the U.S. stock market outlook and its current valuation.

Let's go to the tape!

• Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to Peter Boockvar:

Of course Friday comes and we get another round of Russian/Ukrainian headlines to distract us.

• DJ Ukraine Security Spokesman: Russian Humanitarian Convoy Crosses Border Without Permission
• DJ Ukraine Spokesman: Crossing of 34 Russian Trucks Violated Moscow-Kiev Agreement
• UKRAINE SEES RUSSIAN AID CONVOY AS INVASION: INTERFAX
• UKRAINE SAYS ALLOWED RUSSIAN CONVOY IN TO AVOID PROVOCATIONS
• UKRAINE CALLS ON INTL PARTNERS TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN CONVOY

The US stock market (not joined by almost every other overseas market) has proven not to care as faith in Janet Yellen has superseded any concern. Her speech today is likely to be a non event in terms of hearing anything new because I believe she'll stick to her side of the debate. She has one of two choices. Admit that the data is moving to the Fed's goals much faster than she thought (NOT LIKELY but the minutes show more are acknowledging this) or do her best AGAIN to defend her stance that she can take her time because she still believes in the excess labor slack argument.

With respect to Draghi, I expect also a non event. As I opined on yesterday, the calls for him to do more is nonsense. His big initiatives of the targeted LTRO and hopes for ABS purchases have not even started yet and why should he do anything more until they do and we see its results. And honestly, with multi century lows in European sovereign bond yields, what more can he do?

The one key thing overseas to note was the comments from Li and Fung in their earnings release as they are the world's biggest global exporter of a variety of products from apparel and accessories to furniture and beauty items. They have their tentacles throughout the world with Walmart and Target two of their biggest customers and the US market is 60% of their business. They said this: "The first half of 2014 was characterized by a general weakness in retail sales and uncertain political and macroeconomic conditions. The outlook of our key markets, US and Europe, continues to be uncertain and we expect market conditions to remain challenging. We have witnessed customers buying closer and closer to the season. While we have good visibility in back to school and early holiday season orders, we have less visibility in Q4 and Spring season orders. Most customers are delaying order decisions until they get better indications about consumer confidence in Q4. Furthermore, the recent Russian and Ukraine crisis has reduced foreign travel by Russian nationals, which is starting to impact the European retail markets favored by Russian tourists. In China, the government's focus on fighting corruption and its pull back on being an export driven economy is impacting consumption in the short term."

• Where it began.

"Movement of Russian trucks into Ukraine seen as direct invasion of Ukraine by Russia."

-- Ukraine State Security Chief Nalivaychenko

The rundown:

• U.S. futures have turned a bit lower on more Russia/Ukraine tension. (S&P futures are down by 3 handles, and Nasdaq futures are 5 handles lower).
• European stocks have also reversed lower, with declines of about -0.50%.
• Nikkei is down 0.35% on a quiet news front. The index started in the green but couldn't hold gains. Telecoms, energy and utilities all outperformed, while tech and industrials lagged. Chugai Pharma slumped around 3% as investors doubt whether a Roche deal will occur. Maeda slumped on back of a ratings downgrade from Daiwa Securities. Japan Steel Works fell amid reports it could miss earnings targets. The Japanese yen has been very weak for the past several days but is rallying mildly so far Friday.
• China is up 0.45% again on vague speculation about more stimuli (fiscal and or monetary). Within the market all major groups were higher. The HSCEI was boosted by insurance stocks. (PICC P&C, China Pacific Insurance, People's Insurance, New China Life and Ping An all saw gains.)
• Little foreign-exchange volatility this morning: The U.S. dollar is up 0.04%, and the euro is lower by 0.06%.
• Gold is up $6 an ounce, and crude is down by $0.30 a barrel. Copper prices are back up by 0.66%.
• The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is down by 2.5 basis points, to 2.38%. The 30-year yield has fallen by a relatively large 4 basis points. Sovereign debt yields are unchanged.

A good rotation into financials yesterday, with Best Ideas pick Citigroup (C) climbing by $1.25 a share on the heels of a Bank of America's (BAC, up $0.66 a share) settlement with the government.

Ocwen's (OCN) shares perked up, likely as a result of resumption of a share buyback, which I recently highlighted as a potential catalyst.

Bon-Ton Stores (BONT), as reported in Columnist Conversation, had a mild beat to my expectations (a lower loss than expected) and guided a bit lower (based on nonrecurring factors, principally stemming from severance compensation of its old CEO). The shares responded with a better-than-10% gain, as expectations were too low. More on Bon-Ton after I do some analysis of the quarter this weekend.

Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) is up modestly but for a while had a 5% climb yesterday. My meetings went well, again, on the name in New York City yesterday.

Futures were flat throughout most of the morning. At 4:45 a.m. EDT, it was announced that a Russian aid convoy moved into Ukraine. About 30 minutes later futures slipped by about 6 handles, European stocks weakened, bonds and gold caught bids. Futures have rallied a bit in last hour.

Other than the headlines in Ukraine, little is in the news.

Preopening earnings are expected for Foot Locker (FL), Ann Taylor (ANN) and Royal Bank of Canada (RY).

Jackson Hole center stage this morning: Yellen at 10:00 a.m. EDT and Draghi at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

The best sporting event of the season will be at Williamsport, Pennsylvania, as the Little League World Series semifinals are on ESPN this Saturday. The finals are Sunday. Japan will be tough to beat. Prediction: Japan 9, Nevada 6.

S&P futures dip by about six handles (Nasdaq futures by 10 handles) as bonds get a bid on this news:

Ukraine State Security Chief Nalivaychenko: Movement of Russian trucks into Ukraine seen as direct invasion of Ukraine by Russia