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DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

Good Evening

  • Thanks for reading.

As I used to say when I was in the harness racing game, they were ahead from flag pole to "that's all" today.

Volume was lacking, but breadth and overseas markets were confirmatory.

Thanks for reading my diary today, and I hope you enjoyed my reminiscing of my experience at Woodstock.

Enjoy your evening!

And say a prayer for my buddy/pal/friend and "free spirit" Uncle Vinnie.

Position: None

Market on Close Imbalance

  • Break in: $1.35 billion to buy market on close.
Position: None

Recommended Readings

  • Run, don't walk, to read the latest columns from Jim Cramer and Tim Collins.

Here are two choices from Real Money Pro that really merit a read:

  1. Tim "Not Judy or Phil" Collins gives us some Home Depot (HD) strategies before the company's earnings release; and
  2. Jim "El Capitan Cramer writes about the oil sector.
Position: Short HD

Whither Bears?

  • They are an endangered species.

Today on CNBC there were 21 bullish talking heads and no bearish commentators.

Similar to the Dodo bird, bears are an endangered species.

Enough said.

Position: None

Not Buying It

  • First time long time: I did not make a long buy all day.
Position: None

Sector Watch

  • Banks and consumer staples are perking up and lending support to the broader averages today.
Position: None

Hanson on Autos

  • The real estate maven shifts gears.

Real estate maven Mark Hanson moves over to "peak autos" today:

I do a reasonable amount of work on cars and auto credit due to it's ties to housing.

Anyway, I was at Concourso this weekend in Monterey/Carmel.  We go every year, a fun time.

This year spawned grand headlines and dreams of "world record car prices".  It happened!  Compared to last year, the week of auctions went well. However, compared to the lofty expectations it didn't go so well.

And as far as perpetuating the dream of parabolic car prices, I think last week did damage.  Let's examine this quickly, as one would if these were stocks.

1)  The star of the show was a vintage 1962 Ferrari GTO "expected" to get $60 to $75 million at auction.  It sold $38.1 million, a little over half of the lofty expectations yet ahead of the previous world record of $30mm. If a stock missed expectations by this much, it would be big trouble for the entire sector.

http://www.newsday.com/classifieds/cars/vintage-ferrari-could-fetch-75m-at-prestigous-concours-d-elegance-event-1.9037356

2)  The entire week of auctions was expected to bring in $450mm to $500mm, up from last year's $312mm.  However, it brought in less than $400mm.

Bottom line:  It's tough to make the case that total sales up 27% and a $38mm record breaking Ferrari sale is a bad thing.  But, to many involved with ultra-luxury cars, it's all about the dream. Thus, to many in this "irrationally exuberant" crowd expecting the headliner to go for $60mm, the dream was blown.  Basically, those hoping for this and the $500mm total sales "comps" just had the "paper" value of their auto holdings cut by 20% to 40%.  That's a big hit.

So, what happens when so many were dreaming so large about the cars they were holding, or in the middle of restoring, especially those not so wealthy they can keep these cars forever, which is probably the majority of owners?  I think over the next year we see the supply demand dynamic look like the Phoenix region housing market. It will also be interesting to watch the ultra-high end housing markets in SF, Miami, LA and NYC on the back of this.

Position: None

Doing Very Little

  • Thus far, I have done the least amount of trading all year. 
Position: None

Cashin's Comments, Part Deux

  • Here are his musings at midday.

Midday musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

After nearly 2 ½ hours of consolidating, the bulls engage the S&P 1970/1973 resistance band. So far, they do it on rather light volume. The run rate at 12:15 points to an NYSE final volume of 540/620 million shares.

Position: None

Glass Is Half Full

  • Bulls abound.

Turn on business TV these days and all you will now hear is optimism.

Indeed, there appears to be an almost unanimity of self-confident bullish views.

Stay tuned.

Position: None

Fore!

  • Fancy a foursome?

More insider trading golf tips!

Position: None

Furious Buying

  • I am mostly watching.

Rather furious buying this morning.

I am mostly watching.

Position: None

Cashin's Comments

  • Here are his midmorning musings.

Midmorning market musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

Geopolitical risk off response. Gold and oil sharply lower with stocks and bond yields sharply higher.

Bulls take S&P right up to 1970/1973 resistance band but choose to pause and consolidate rather than to punch right through.

Too early for a full volume projection but so far looks like the light kind of action that we saw Monday through Thursday last week.

Position: None

Greenhaus on Jackson Hole

  • Here is his preview.

BTIG's Dan Greenhaus previews Jackson Hole (no fireworks expected):

If we had told you a few years ago that the annual economic symposium held in Jackson Hole Wyoming would become a major market focal point, you might not have believed us. But in the wake of the 2010 symposium, at which then Chairman Bernanke strongly hinted at a forthcoming round of monetary stimulus, and the 2012 gathering at which Michael Woodford presented an important paper on guidance, the annual gathering is the source of much market speculation. 2014 is no different. The title of this year's conference is Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics and given the focus on exactly this subject, the discussion should not only be quite robust, but could also have important implications for the course of policy. Market moving? That's another, more unlikely, story.

Position: None

Parsing the Data

  • Namely, the NAHB report.

The NAHB report showed very good sentiment on the part of homebuilders at 55 (consensus was 53), close to the highest level since prior cycle peak in 2005.

Buyer traffic, present condition and future expectations were all positive, which was a bit at odds with recent homebuilders' anecdotes.

Position: None

10-Year Yield Watch

  • The current level of technical resistance used to be support.

We have a 2.38% yield on the 10-year U.S. note now.

Technical resistance is 2.44%; it used to be support.

Position: Long TBF

Bond Short Weighting

  • I have a 5% weight in short bonds.  
Position: Long TBF

The Big Wigs Are Bullish

  • So you know.

I went to a fancy schmancy cocktail party in Bridgehampton on Friday night that many attendees of an earlier George Soros lunch attended.

According to my buddy/pal/friend Byron Wien, who was at the lunch, there was nearly unviersal bullishness in the group of billionaire hedge-hoggers and money managers.

Maybe this shouldn't be surprising in light of the trickle up impact of the Fed's monetary easing.

So you know.

Position: None

From the Street of Dreams

  • Here is Piper's report on Ocwen.

Piper Jaffray on Ocwen (OCN) this morning (which includes much of what I reported):

This morning, OCN released its re-stated March quarter 10-Q and 2013 10-K. Within the documents, OCN noted that it was restating its financial statements to better reflect the impacts and interest expense paid to HLSS. The net effect of these restatements is a $17.3M increase to net income in 2013 with a $17.3M decrease to net income in 1Q14. We also note that OCN disclosed that it had received a subpoena from the SEC on 6/12/14 requesting documents regarding OCN's business dealings with ASPS, HLSS, AAMC and RESI. We believe this request is similar to what the New York DFS has requested. We think that the restatement is a minor item as it does not affect cash flow and we believe that the regulatory issues will eventually clear up. Finally, we highlight that OCN also repurchased an additional 740K shares since the June quarter call.

  • $500M authorization remains. In 4Q13 OCN announced that its board had authorized a $500M repurchase program through 2016. Management also laid out OCN's priorities in using its excess cash: 1.) Supporting growth of servicing and lending businesses, 2.) expanding into similar businesses, and 3.) repurchasing shares. During the quarter, OCN completed the repurchase of 2.6M shares for $92.3M. Subsequent to the June quarter close, OCN converted and retired its remaining 62K preferred shares (~1.95M common shares for $72.3M) and also repurchased an additional ~1.96M common shares for $65.5M. In total, OCN retired 6.5M shares or ~$232M worth of stock. We note that management hopes to buy back at least the prior quarter's normalized net income and that OCN has ~$345.4M available on its buyback.
Position: Long OCN

Short Again

  • I am back to 5% net short now.
Position: None

Grant's Take on the Markets

  • Here is his morning commentary.

Mark J. Grant's morning commentary:

"The Mississippi River towns are comely, clean, well built, and pleasing to the eye, and cheering to the spirit. The Mississippi Valley is as reposeful as a dreamland, nothing worldly about it . . . nothing to hang a fret or a worry upon."

-Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi

I have just returned home from eight days on the Mississippi. I took The American Queen out of Minneapolis and chugged along to St. Louis. She is a steamship and a riverboat that is full of antebellum furniture, good old Southern cooking, a very polite and amenable staff and the Engineer's Bar, with its outside porch, that allowed me to smoke my cigars as we rolled past small towns and houses on stilts. The catfish were jumping, seabirds and Pelicans roamed the inlets and the sights and smells of the American heartland filled my imagination.

Why no one knows about this exceedingly pleasant adventure is beyond me. There is no flight to be taken that crosses Iraq, Iran, the Gaza Strip or the Ukraine. Small town America may not be the most exciting of places but they are certainly charming places where no concern needs to be given to your safety. They had well-done buses at each port where you could "Hop on-Hop off" and see what sights were to be seen. There were no additional charges for anything except liquor and premium excursions and the prices were not the rip-offs generally found on many cruise ships.

Every morning, as I got up to write my commentary, I first wandered up to the 24/7 open "Front Porch" where you could help yourself to coffee, juice, muffins and homemade chocolate chip cookies to begin your day. No charge for any of it and all the refills you wanted. Then later, if desired, it was the main dining room with eggs benedict or scrambled eggs or French toast and bacon or potatoes or grits with sausage gravy. No good at all for your waistline but very good for your mental health as the riverbank provided a constant stream of surprises to watch as you "chowed down" the hometown cooking.

"The face of the water, in time, became a wonderful book--a book that was a dead language to the uneducated passenger, but which told its mind to me without reserve, delivering its most cherished secrets as clearly as if it uttered them with a voice. And it was not a book to be read once and thrown aside, for it had a new story to tell every day."

-Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi

Now "Out of the Box" warns more than it recommends but this is one adventure that I can recommend without question. Steak or chicken or fish for dinner with all the fixings. Pecan pie or good old American apple pie for dessert. Melon wrapped in Virginia ham and not something imported from Italy or Spain. This is a truly American adventure and a worthwhile one for any age or nationality.

As I departed the ship I had the opportunity to speak to the principal owner and CEO, John Waggoner, also the CEO of HMS Global Maritime, who had just come on board. He is a delightful fellow with the good sense to ask a lot of questions and listen politely to the answers. Here is a man with a vision for his riverboats and he exudes a charm that matches the smiling faces that are to be found on his ships. I wish him well with his very unique endeavor!

A time to be reapin', a time to be sowin'

The green leaves of summer are callin' me home

It was good to be young then in the season of plenty

When the catfish were jumpin' as high as the sky

-Eddy Arnold, Green Leaves of Summer

The American Queen steamboat company:

http://www.americanqueensteamboatcompany.com/

A Decent Play

Maturities come in two forms. The first is what is printed on the face of the bond. The second is when you have decided they have matured enough and on to other things. At current levels, just slightly over zero for bonds one year and in, I would advise selling them and extending. Extending into anything will give you a better yield, regardless of your mandate, and there is virtually nothing left in any upside for bonds maturing within a year or so. Sure there are some transaction costs but the yield differential can absorb them and then some. 

I would be saying, "Bye-Bye Birdie."

The Secret

I have been to Victoria's Secret before. I am single and I admit it openly. However when I am about to tell you is nothing like that. 

Sorry to disappoint you!

Added to all of the good reasons that I have given to you why interest rates will keep going down is the attitude of our government. It is just this side of being Socialistic and I mean just this side. You can like it, not like it or lump it but there you are. Now what would higher yields cause? The economy, the stock market, the bond market, the Real Estate market would all get hammered I would state. The Fed has $5 trillion on their balance sheet now, the Treasury just started a bond buy-back program under the ridiculous guise of testing their IT software and the only thing holding Europe together are interest rates that are a fraction of ours. 

I would also opine that what has caused a decent American economy, stock market, bond market and Real Estate market have been lower and lower interest rates. Wherever you are in the financial markets you should thank your lucky stars that we have had them. So if you think the government, the Treasury or the Fed are going to push up interest rates any day soon I think you should think again because if your model is telling you that then you are obviously driving the Model T which is far out of date.

We have departed the Sea of Free Markets and are now in the Ocean of Government Intervention. That's the way the wind blew since 2008/2009 and this is where we were headed and we are now here so just take what you got and be happy. Central banks and their government sponsors are now running the Great Game and logic should dictate that if they are in then they will get what they want and none of them wants the economy to blow-up. Not one, not any of them.

That's my secret and I am sticking to it!

Two young bond salesmen were talking. One said, "There's an easy way to get ahead in our firm."

The other salesman said, "How?"

"Tell senior management that you know their secret."

The salesman went up to the head of sales and said, "I know your secret."

The Executive Vice-President said, "Ok, don't tell and I'll get you a big raise."

The same salesman then tried it on the head of Trading, "I know your secret."

That Executive Vice-President said, "Say nothing and I'll increase your sales credits."

The salesman was so stunned that he decided to try it on the CEO of the entire firm. "I know your secret."

The CEO opened his arms and said, "Come give your dad a hug."

Position: None

Adding to QID Long

  • Small at $45.63.

I am buying a small ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) add-on in premarket trading (down $0.50) at $45.63.

I will be modestly net short if I complete my order.

Position: Long QID

From Woodstock to Wall Street

  • What a long, strange trip it has been.

Well I came across a child of God, he was walking along the road

And I asked him tell where are you going, this he told me:

Well, I'm going down to Yasgur's farm, going to join in a rock and roll band.

Got to get back to the land, set my soul free.

We are stardust, we are golden, we are billion year old carbon,

And we got to get ourselves back to the garden.

-- Joni Mitchell, "Woodstock" (this performance will give you chills)

Forty-five years ago this morning I and about 400,000-500,000 others (which included my pals Dennis Gartman and Larry Kudlow!) were at the last day of the Woodstock Music & Art Fair at Max Yasgur's farm in Bethel, New York. The weekend was serendipitous and unexpected. At its peak Woodstock was the third most populated town in New York state.

The previous week I had quit a job at Camp Chipinaw on Swan Lake to attend the festival with my girlfriend Toby.

We spent five days on a blanket fairly close to the stage. We bathed in the nearby lake and survived on sunflower seeds, some fruit, stale rolls, bottled water and plenty of marijuana.

"This is the second time we've ever played in front of people, man. We're scared xxxxless."

-- Stephen Stills at Woodstock

At around 4:00 a.m. Crosby, Stills & Nash had just completed singing "Marrakesh Express" and were in the middle of their set. Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young were so unknown that they had to introduce themselves at the beginning of their Woodstock appearance. Woodstock was only the group's second live performance -- the first live appearance was two days before Woodstock began at a Chicago gig with Joni Mitchell. (Joni Mitchell missed Woodstock, watched the accounts on television and instead appeared on "The Dick Cavett Show" during the weekend.)

The air was filled with the stench of cannabis and cheap wine.

There was no sleeping throughout Sunday night as we were serenaded by an extraordinary nonstop barrage of musicians that continued through Monday morning.

  • Joe Cocker started Sunday afternoon's music with a little help from his friends in The Grease Band.
  • After Cocker concluded a two-hour thunderstorm disrupted the concert, and at about 7:00 p.m. Country Joe and the Fish ripped it up and finished with a seminal song that captured the gestalt and became something of a national anthem of the 1960s, "I Feel Like I'm Fixin' to Die Rag."
  • Alvin Lee and Ten Years After gave us their spoonful and ended with their classic "I'm Coming Home."
  • The house band and local Woodstock residents, The Band pulled into Nazareth at about 10:00 p.m.
  • At midnight Edgar and Johnny Winter told the truth and finished with "Johnny B. Goode."
  • The early morning began at about 1:00 a.m. with Blood, Sweat & Tears spinning their wheels.
  • Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young began their acoustic set at 3:00 a.m.
  • The Paul Butterfield Blues Band delivered a morning sunrise.
  • Sha Na Na, who were paid only about $350 for their gig (the briefest of the concert), were at the hop and ended the morning music by 8:00 a.m. with "Get a Job."
  • The final act (and the longest set) was Jimi Hendrix at 9:00 a.m. He was paid the most of any performer ($32,000). His "Star Spangled Banner" was widely considered among the best performances of the festival. "Hey Joe" ended the concert.

"But when I played Woodstock, I'll never forget that moment looking out over the hundreds of thousands of people, the sea of humanity, seeing all those people united in such a unique way. It just touched me in a way that I'll never forget."

-- Edgar Winter

The party was still going on, and the traffic congestion was so terrible that many, including myself, stayed on for another two or three days.

Years later I played squash at the Princeton Club in New York City with Joel Rosenman, and weeks later learned from him that he, along with Michael Lang, Artie Kornfeld and John Roberts, was one of the founders of the Woodstock Festival. Blackstone's Byron Wien is good friends with Joel, and he put us back in touch with each other last spring after reading "My Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett's Omaha," which mentioned that after having gone to the Woodstock Music & Art Fair, I found myself in a unique sort of symmetry 44 years later attending the "Woodstock of capitalism" -- small world.

All weekend I was in wonderment about the changes in my life over the past four and a half decades.

Consider that:

  • On Saturday, Aug. 16, 1969, Chip Monck warned me and the rest of the Woodstock crowd not to take the brown acid.
  • On Saturday, Aug. 16, 2014, my golf partner, the legendary Wall Streeter Peter Cohen, warned me not to swing my golf club too hard on the fifth hole at Noyac Golf Club in Sag Harbor, New York.

The memories of Woodstock linger on and conjured up a nostalgic feeling throughout the past weekend for me. At times, when viewing the YouTube videos of those original Woodstock performances I got goosebumps and, quite honestly, teary-eyed.

It was an age gone by. There were no cell phones 45 years ago and no selfies. Nor was any merchandise sold at Woodstock. A three-day pass cost $18 in advance, $24 at the gate. But by the second day there were no gates, as the concert was free.

To me Woodstock was both a demonstration of peaceful protest and a global musical celebration -- considering that nearly 12% of the world is at war today, these are two things we need more of these days.

Over the years Woodstock has been romanticized, glorified and has become a final page in our collective memory of a different era, an age of innocence.

In a sense it was the last waltz of the decade of the sixties.

While I had already cultivated a great interest in the stock market for three or four years, I was still a year and a half away from getting my MBA at Wharton when I left Woodstock and Yasgur's farm.

To be sure the capital markets have changed materially over the past 45 years. The DJIA stood at 825 back in 1969 vs. 16,660 today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. note was 6.70% vs. 2.35% this morning.

And 1969 was a momentous year.

  • The first automatic teller machine in the U.S. was installed in my home town of Rockville Centre, New York.
  • Wendy's Hamburgers opened.
  • Ralph Nader set up a consumer organization known as Nader's Raiders (and I became one in 1971!).
  • The Supreme Court ordered an end to all school desegregation "at once."
  • "Sesame Street" premiered on PBS.
  • The Fifth Dimension's "Aquarius/Let the Sunshine In" topped the Billboard music charts throughout much of the year.
  • Oliver! won the Academy Award for Best Picture.
  • The Beatles released Abbey Road.
  • The Pulitzer Prize for General Non-fiction was awarded to Norman Mailer for The Armies of the Night.
  • The Who released the rock opera Tommy.
  • "The Smothers Brothers' Comedy Hour" ended and so did the show Cabaret (after 1,166 performances).
  • "Hee Haw"premiered on CBS, and Oh! Calcutta! opened on Broadway.
  • The Rolling Stones released "Honky Tonk Women."
  • Rod Stewart joinedSmall Faces.
  • Hello Dolly with Barbra Streisand opened.
  • The New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts in the Super Bowl, and Joe Namath was named MVP.
  • Mario Andretti won the Indianapolis 500.
  • Mickey Mantle's No. 7 jersey was retired by the New York Yankees.
  • Joe Frazier knocked out Jerry Quarry for the heavyweight championship of the world.
  • Muhammad Ali was convicted for refusing induction in U.S. Army on appeal.
  • Rod Laver won the second U.S. Open in tennis and completed his second grand slam.
  • Hundred-to-one shot New York Mets beat the Baltimore Orioles to win the sixty-sixth World Series in five games.
  • The New York Times reported that Curt Flood planned to sue baseball and challenge the reserve clause.
  • Kansas City outfielder Lou Piniella was voted AL Rookie of Year.
  • Richard Nixon was inaugurated as President (and proclaimed he would end the Vietnam War by 1970), and Golda Meir became the first female Prime Minister of Israel.
  • Warren Burger was confirmed as Chief Justice on the Supreme Court.
  • Edward Kennedy pleaded guilty to leaving scene of an accident a week after the Chappaquiddick car accident that killed Mary Jo Kopechne.
  • The U.S. Army announced the investigation of William Calley for the alleged massacre of civilians at the Vietnamese village of My Lai.
  • The U.S. Army conducted its first draft lottery since World War II.
  • Apollo 9 was launched (and came safely back to Earth), and the Boeing 747 made its first commercial flight.
  • The Manson Family committed the Tate-LaBianca murders.
  • Tiny Tim and Miss Vicky got engaged.
  • Jerry Lewis conducted only his fourth Muscular Dystrophy telethon.

From Woodstock to Wall Street: What a long, strange trip it has been.

Position: None

Ocwen Update

  • Shares are probably going to be trading range-bound for several more months.

Ocwen Financial (OCN) has filed its 10Q this morning. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140818/ocn10-q_a.html

The filing frees the company up to repurchase stocks (which I suspect it will do aggressively).

In the 10Q filing the company reports that in mid-June Ocwen received a subpoena from the SEC requesting documents related to the business dealings with its sister companies: Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS), Altisource Asset Management (AAMC), Altisource Residential (RESI) and Home Loan Servicing Solutions (HLSS).

Additionally the SEC informed Ocwen of its plan to send the company a subpoena following the restatement at Home Loan Servicing Solutions.

This upshifts the focus to additional regulatory responses beyond the state of New York to the SEC.

This seems to complicate Ocwen's situation and, in all likelihood, reduces the chances of a near-term settlement that would permit the company to expand its business through additional mortgage-servicing platform acquisitions. It also likely raises the cost of doing business in the interim interval.

Bottom line: I expect the downside to be limited by the current share price discount to company "run-off value." And I similarly expect the upside to be limited by the costs of regulatory actions and the cessation of acquisition-based growth.

So, barring quick resolutions with the SEC and state of New York, Ocwen's shares are probably going to be trading range-bound for several more months.

Position: Long OCN

The Gospel According to Peter Boockvar

  • Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to the Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar:

Markets in Europe are rebounding nicely from Friday's worries after its been claimed that some progress ("moderate" was how the Ukrainian Foreign Minister characterized it) was made today in Berlin in discussions between the two warring parties. Rather than progress, I'd say it is more likely that markets are responding to the fact that tensions haven't escalated further over the weekend. I say this because the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said this "as long as they're betting on a military solution, and as long as the authorities in Kiev are using military victories over their own people to shore up their position in Kiev, I don't think there's any point to what we're trying to do now." On the Ukrainian side, their Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said, "the idea is that Russia, at least half-heartedly, is ready to talk about some measures about the border, but not about taking responsibility, influencing the terrorists, or separatists, or rebels - how Russia used to call them - to ensure that the border is closed, and that is a critical issue." Maybe the comments are theater but it doesn't seem there is a clear end to this anytime soon. That said, Russia's Micex index is up for a 7th straight day to the highest level in a month and the ruble is higher.

While we can't ignore the economic implications to the European economy in response to what is going on with Russia and Ukraine, I remain of the belief that it is the Fed that is the main risk to markets and we hear from Janet Yellen on Friday in Jackson Hole. With respect to the BoE, the other central bank that is looking for the right timing in raising rates, Mark Carney said he doesn't need to see the whites of the eyes of wage growth before hiking but did say "we have to have the confidence that prospective real wages are going to be growing sustainably" before doing so. The pound is lifting in response and the 2 yr gilt yield is jumping by 7 bps after slumping by 7 bps on Friday.

China's property market is showing more signs of deflating. On a m/o/m basis, property prices for new apartments in July rose in just 2 cities of 70 surveyed vs 8 in June and 65 in December. For existing apartments, prices rose in just 1 city vs 7 in June and 64 in December. Also, foreign direct investment plunged by 17% y/o/y in July, well more than expectations of up .8%. This data follows a sharp drop in new lending in July and less than expected prints for retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment both reported last week. As markets there are still trying to figure out whether bad news is good news because of the hoped for government stimulus response, the Shanghai index closed up by .6% but the Hong Kong China index was down by .4%.

Position: None

This Morning's Market Setup

  • Where it began.

Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand?

Hey Joe, I said where you goin' with that gun in your hand?

Alright. I'm goin down to shoot my old lady,

you know I caught her messin' 'round with another man.

Yeah,! I'm goin' down to shoot my old lady,

you know I caught her messin' 'round with another man.

Huh! And that ain't too cool.

-- Jimi Hendrix, "Hey Joe" (last song sung at Woodstock this morning 45 years ago at about 11:00 a.m. ET)

The rundown:

  • U.S. futures are building off the Friday reversal. (S&P futures are up by 9 handles, and Nasdaq futures are 18 handles higher.)
  • European stocks are very strong, with gains of over 1%.
  • Nikkei is up 0.03%. Healthcare and energy were outperformers, and financials lagged. Chugai Pharma surged amid reports that Roche was looking to buy the rest of the company that it doesn't already own. (Chugai denied the talk, but the stock responded regardless.) Tokyo Electron saw strong gains following the big Applied Materials (AMAT) rally in the U.S. on Friday. (Applied Materials reported earnings Thursday night.) Dentsu was a top performer within the Nikkei also. (A Wall Street Journal report over the weekend suggested it could be a buyer for IPG). Nintendo climbed 4% after the company said that it would release a Pokemon game for the iPad. The Japanese yen (vs. U.S. dollar) is off small so far.
  • China is up 0.57%. Economic data overnight fell short of consensus (mostly home prices). All major groups finished higher, though financials were basically flat. Tech, consumer discretionary, utilities, materials and healthcare all outperformed.
  • Limited foreign-exchange volatility this morning. The U.S. dollar is up 0.01%, and the euro is lower by 0.07%.
  • Gold is down by $3 an ounce, and crude is $1.00 lower a barrel. Copper prices are up modestly.
  • The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is up 2.5 basis points, to 2.365%. Sovereign debt yields are flattish.

Global stocks are strong this morning, though Asian markets were mixed. Easing political tensions being the proximate cause. There is also the anticipation that Yellen will go Whirlybird and dovish during Friday morning's Jackson Hole speech. Also Dollar General (DG) has bid for Family Dollar (FDO).

A quiet day on the earnings front today. The August NAHB data comes out at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

I covered all my short index postions on Friday's whoosh lower, and I now stand at market-neutral.

I will be shorting strength in the days ahead.

Position: Long FXI and TBF
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-32.96%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-16.60%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+9.52%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+13.70%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-22.80%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-15.13%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-27.76%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+32.98%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+65.61%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+77.63%