• Thanks for reading my diary today.

I have a couple of errands to run, so I am outta here.

Thanks for reading my diary today.

Enjoy your evening.

For your viewing pleasure, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers honor the anniversary of Jerry Garcia's passing. 

• The market is losing its lovin' feelin'.

The market takes another turn down late in the day.

I raised my net short exposure to above 15%.

The market is losing its lovin' feelin'.

• From the chairman's mouth.

In the comments section there was a question from subscriber Bob B on the status of the continuing share repurchase program at Ocwen (OCN).

I emailed Ocwen's chairman, Bill Erbey, to update an answer to Bob B's question, and here is his quick and timely response: "We are permitted as soon as we issue the 10-Q, which should be within five days as specified by the SEC. On the earnings call we reaffirmed our desire to purchase shares."

• Weak sauce.

Lousy-three year U.S. note auction today with a weak bid to cover (one year low).

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) trades at $115 and looks like it might break down.

• Sure looks like it.

It looks to me (certifiable Voodoo) like the price of gold is breaking out to the upside of a longstanding trading range.

• Zero Hedge recaps of Carl Icahn's bubble concerns.

Run, don't walk, to readZero Hedge's recap of Carl Icahn's bubble concerns.

• Take the ice bucket challenge?

Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about the bad break I got. Yet today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth. I have been in ballparks for seventeen years and have never received anything but kindness and encouragement from you fans.

Look at these grand men. Which of you wouldn't consider it the highlight of his career just to associate with them for even one day? Sure, I'm lucky. Who wouldn't consider it an honor to have known Jacob Ruppert? Also, the builder of baseball's greatest empire, Ed Barrow? To have spent six years with that wonderful little fellow, Miller Huggins? Then to have spent the next nine years with that outstanding leader, that smart student of psychology, the best manager in baseball today, Joe McCarthy? Sure, I'm lucky.

When the New York Giants, a team you would give your right arm to beat, and vice versa, sends you a gift ¿ that's something. When everybody down to the groundskeepers and those boys in white coats remember you with trophies ¿ that's something. When you have a wonderful mother-in-law who takes sides with you in squabbles with her own daughter ¿ that's something. When you have a father and a mother who work all their lives so that you can have an education and build your body ¿ it's a blessing. When you have a wife who has been a tower of strength and shown more courage than you dreamed existed ¿ that's the finest I know.

So I close in saying that I might have been given a bad break, but I've got an awful lot to live for. Thank you.

-- Lou Gehrig at Yankee Stadium (July 4, 1939)

Great piece on the ice bucket challenge for ALS on CNBC from Biogen Idec (BIIB) outside of Boston.

Who will ever forget this moving speech by The Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig?

Finally, our prayers go out to the Najarian family for their recent loss.

• Goldman Sachs chimes in on the JOLTS report.

Goldman Sachs on this morning's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS):

BOTTOM LINE: Job openings posted another solid gain in June, while the hiring rate moved up slightly.

KEY NUMBERS: JOLTS job openings 4,671k for June vs. median forecast 4,600k

MAIN POINTS: 1. Job openings grew to 4,671k in June (vs. consensus 4,600k), from a revised 4,577k in May. Job openings have posted a large cumulative gain over the past three months, matching the highs of the last business cycle expansion. The number of unemployed persons per job opening declined to 2.0, the most favorable for jobseekers since early 2008. The hiring rate moved up by one-tenth to 3.5%, but remains fairly depressed by historical standards. The quit rate (1.8%) and the layoff and discharge rate (1.2%) remained unchanged.

• Here are his musings at midday.

Midday musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

Small downdraft as we head toward European close. Some equity nervousness related to Russian convoy but no confirmation from ten year yield. S&P held at first support 1927/1930 with next 1921/1924.

The bulls hope they are just building the second shoulder of a potential inverse head and shoulder formation.

Bnak of America upgraded Oaktree, and I am putting it on my Best Ideas list.

I neglected to mention that Bank of America has upgraded "The Mighty" Oaktree (OAK) to Buy with a $62 share price target this morning.

Down to under $50 from its earlier high (in March 2014) of almost $62.

I am putting Oaktree on my Best Ideas list at its current price of $49.97 as a measue of my conviction.

• Futures volume accompanied the drop.

The S&P 500 just took a leg lower.

I am told large futures volume accompanied the drop with over $7.5 billion of Es printed over last 10 minutes.

• The shares are having a nice run today.

I mentioned Oaktree (OAK) as a new buy candidate yesterday.

The shares are having a nice run today, up by $1.40 a share.

• I further expanded my net short exposure this morning -- now at 15% net short.

• The JOLTs data say yes.

I am considering moving my short bond position to 15% (up from 10%) of my portfolio now after the JOLTs report, which continues (as I wrote) a series of excellent economic releases.

• Peri was indeed built by Monitise.

As I suspected, Peri was indeed built by Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF).

Below is an extract from the company'sMobile Industry Insights back on March 26, 2014: 

MOBILE COMMERCE

Banks Can Profit by Modernizing Mobile Commerce:  American Banker published an article detailing four ways that banks can retain customers and profits by using mobile commerce. It includes U.S. Bank's vision of mobile commerce, made real through their Peri software, which was built by Monitise. Peri works by using digital QR codes or watermarking to detect information in audio and images. It also provides data to the retailer indicating which ads led to corresponding sales.  Dominic Venturo, chief innovation officer for payments at U.S. Bank, said, "Don't think of us as a bank...think of us as commerce."

• I am paying $0.6990.

Bidding and paying $0.6990 for more Monitise (MONIF) just now.

• Shares trading lower on a report of a delayed 10-Q filing.

The hits keep coming at Ocwen (OCN).

Shares trading lower on a report of a delayed 10-Q filing.

I believe this relates to a previous change in valuation methodologies of mortgage servicing rights at Home Loan Servicing Solutions (HLSS, an Ocwen spin-off).

If this is accurate there is no net-net accounting impact to Ocwen, though an extraordinary gain is taken in a previous quarter and a similar charge in the following quarter.

In other words, no impact on Ocwen.

When more news hits, I will analyze.

• Another new business win?

I am told that Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) architecture is at the core of the Peri application.

I have some calls out to verify this.

• Shares are down by 20% in premarket trading.

Former short magicJack VocalTec (CALL) misses badly on the top line and guides lower.

Shares down by 20% in premarket trading.

I believe the shares will be a hat size in the fullness of time.

• Namely, the NFIB's small business confidence index.

The July small business confidence index from the National Federation of Independent Businesses was released this morning, and the reading rose to the second best level of the year and also the second best since late 2007.

Importantly the plans-to-hire index came in at the best level in nearly seven years, and the measurements of future economic expectations at the best level since August 2013.

Along with PMI and ISM readings, the small business index joins growing evidence of improving economic metrics.

The Fed remains behind the curve, and though the capital markets haven't yet tested the Fed (maybe because wage inflation remains tame at under 2% year over year), they might in the near future, as the federal funds rate is too low relative to current economic readings and future expectations.

• Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to Peter Boockvar:

The July NFIB Small Business Optimism index rose to 95.7 from 95 and is the 2nd best read of the year after touching 96.6 in May. Positively, Plans to Hire rose 1 pt to the best since September '07. After falling 2 pts in June, plans to Increase Capital Spending rose 1 pt to 23% but remains within the 6 month average of 24%, thus no acceleration yet in this closely watched component. Plans to Increase Inventory was flat vs -1% in June. Those Expecting a Better Economy remained negative at -6% but compares with -10% in June. Those Expecting Higher Sales fell 1 pt but those that said it's a Good Time To Expand was up 3 pts but after falling 3 pts last month. On the inflation front, 14% of companies reported higher selling prices, unchanged but up 15 pts from December and above the 6 month average of 10. A net 21% reported 'higher worker compensation' unchanged with June but at the 2nd best reading since early 2008. Bottom line, the index got back some of what it lost in June with mixed components and the NFIB Chief Economist said "on the positive side expectations for business conditions and outlook for expansion accounted for virtually all of the net gain in July's index. However, capital spending reports continue to remain mediocre, spending plans are weak, and inventories are too large, with more owners reporting sales trends deteriorating than improving. As long as these stats continue to hold, the small business half of the economy will continue to not be able to pull its weight." And, the inflation components, while little changed m/o/m are holding their recent gains.

Investor confidence in the German economy in August according to the ZEW continues to weaken in response to what is going on with Russia and the Ukraine. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to 8.6 from 27.1 and well below the estimate of 17. It's the weakest since December '12 and the current conditions component fell to a 7 month low, dropping to 44.3 from 61.8. The ZEW said "the decline in economic sentiment is likely connected to the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have affected the German economy by now... Since the economy in the euro zone is not gaining momentum either, the signs are that economic growth in Germany will be weaker in 2014 than expected." The German economy may have contracted in Q2 and will be released on Thursday and would follow a drop in Italy's Q2 GDP. After a strong day yesterday, the DAX is lower by about 40 bps and the euro is back touching its lowest intraday level since last November. Also, for a 2nd straight day, the buyer of a 2 yr note has to pay the German government for the privilege of lending to them. The one, three and six month bill yields are also all negative.

• No apparent reason.

S&P futures give up entire early gains of about 5 points, and Nasdaq futures give up 10-handle advance.

No apparent reason.

• Sanford Bernstein on IBM.

Has the restructuring playbook run its course for IBM (IBM)?

Below are some important words on the company from Sanford Bernstein: 

• Over the past 5 yrs, IBM's Services PTI has increased 140 bps/yr or nearly $4B, despite declining revs. How? Through labor reduction/ migration to offshore locations. In total, ~100K employees (or 25% of IBM total) have been impacted.
• In FYQ2, IGS margins declined... raising question of whether this is the start of trend or 1-time blip? Workforce rebalancing actions in Q1 should boost near term IGS profits, but the expected 270 bps expansion in 2H vs. 1H is not a slam dunk.
• Longer term, we believe the margin improvement playbook will have diminishing returns: margins are materially above onshore peers & much of workforce has been already migrated offshore. This makes double digit EPS growth beyond 2015 unlikely.
• Market Perform, Target Price of $180.

I view IBM as an investment short.

• Where it began.

Gooooooood morning, Vietnam! Hey, this is not a test. This is rock and roll. Time to rock it from the delta to the DMZ! Is that me, or does that sound like an Elvis Presley movie? Viva Da Nang. Oh, viva, Da Nang. Da Nang me, Da Nang me. Why don't they get a rope and hang me? Hey, is it a little too early for being that loud? Hey, too late. It's 0600 What's the "0" stand for? Oh, my God, it's early. Speaking of early, how about that Cro-Magnon, Marty Dreiwitz? Thank you, Marty, for silky-smooth sound. Make me sound like Peggy Lee.

Freddy and the Dreamers! Wrong speed. We've got it on the wrong speed. For those of you recovering from a hangover, that's gonna sound just right. Let's put her right back down. Let's try it a little faster, see if that picks it up a little bit. Those pilots are going, "I really like the music. I really like the music. I really like the music." Oh, it's still a bad song. Hey, wait a minute. Let's try something. Let's play this backwards and see if it gets any better. Freddy is a devil. Freddy is a devil. Picture a man going on a journey beyond sight and sound. He's left Crete. He's entered the demilitarized zone. All right.

Hey, what is this demilitarized zone? What do they mean, police action? Sounds like a couple of cops in Brooklyn going, You know, she looks pretty to me. Hey, whatever it is, I like it because it gets you on your toes better than a strong cup of cappuccino.

What is a demilitarized zone? Sounds like something out of The Wizard of Oz:

Oh, no, don't go in there.

(Oh-we-oh, Ho Chi Minh!)

Oh, look, you've landed in Saigon. You're among the little people now.

(We represent the ARVN Army, the ARVN Army!)

Oh, no!

(Follow the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Follow the Ho Chi Minh Trail.)

Oh, I'll get you, my pretty!

Oh, my God. It's the wicked witch of the north. It's Hanoi Hanna!

Now, little GI, you and your little tune-ooh too!

Oh, Adrian. Adrian. What are you doing, Adrian?

Oh, Hanna, you slut. You've been down on everything but the Titanic. Stop it right now.

Hey, uh, hi. Can you help me?

What's your name?

My name's Roosevelt E. Roosevelt.

Roosevelt, what town are you stationed in?

I'm stationed in Poontang.

Well, thank you, Roosevelt. What's the weather like out there?

It's hot. Damn hot! Real hot! Hottest things is my shorts. I could cook things in it. A little crotch pot cooking.

Well, can you tell me what it feels like.

Fool, it's hot! I told you again! Were you born on the sun? It's damn hot! I saw -- it's so damn hot -- I saw little guys, their orange robes burst into flames. It's that hot! Do you know what I'm talking about.

What do you think it's going to be like tonight?

It's gonna be hot and wet! That's nice if you're with a lady, but it ain't no good if you're in the jungle.

Thank you, Roosevelt.

Here's a song coming your way right now. "Nowhere To Run To" by Martha and the Vandellas. Yes! Hey, you know what I mean!

Too much?

-- Adrian Cronauer (Robin Williams), Good Morning, Vietnam

The rundown:

• U.S. futures are building on yesterday's gains. (S&P futures are up by 4 handles, and Nasdaq futures are 8 handles higher.)
• European stocks are mixed this morning.
• Nikkei is up 0.20%. Industrials outperformed, while telecoms, energy and consumer discretionary underperformed. Pacific Metals rallied by nearly 5% ahead of its earnings report. Sumco rebounded from yesterday's earnings-induced fall on Monday. Mixi ripped higher by 20% after the social network operator raised its outlook. Ebara slumped after posting disappointing earnings.
• China is down 0.14%. Quiet news night. Utilities, tech and consumer discretionary outperformed with underperformance seen in financials and telecoms. A lot of important data tomorrow morning.
• Foreign-exchange volatility is on the ascent again this morning. The U.S. dollar is up 0.24%, and the euro is lower by 0.34%.
• Gold is up $2, and crude oil is down by almost $1. Copper prices are up 0.4%.
• The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is unchanged at 2.43%. Sovereign debt yields are down by 2 basis points to 3 basis points. In my "15 Surprises for 2014," I predicted that the 10-year yield would range between 2.50% and 3.00%. (It closed 2013 at 3.03%, and the consensus was 3.50% to 4.00% at that time.) I shorted U.S. bonds, selecting ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) as my preferred vehicle.

Quiet morning with global stocks mixed.

The market is beginning to focus on the FOMC minutes release on Aug. 20 and Jackson Hole on Aug. 21.

As far as economic data are concern, today we only have the JOLTs report at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Earnings releases die down as well, with Fossil (FOSL), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), King Digital Entertainment (KING) and Cree (CREE) reporting after the bell.

Tonight and tomorrow's highlights are China's July data (industrial production and retail sales) and Japan's second-quarter 2014 real GDP. Deere (DE) and Macy's (M) report earnings before the open tomorrow, and Cisco (CSCO) and NetApp (NTAP) report after the close on Wednesday.

Gooooooooood-byyyyyyye, Vietnaaaaam! That's right, I'm history. I'm outta here. I got the lucky ticket home, baby. Rollin, rollin, rollin'. keep them wagons rollin', rawhide! Yeah, that's right -- the final Adrian Cronauer broadcast, and this one is brought to you by our friends at the Pentagon. Remember the people who brought you Korea? That's right, the U.S. Army. If it's being done correctly, here or abroad, it's probably not being done by the Army.