• Thanks so much for reading my diary today, and I hope you enjoy your evening.

I am outta here early -- the way I hope Donald Sterling will be shortly.

Thanks so much for reading my diary today, and I hope you enjoy your evening.

God bless Uncle Vinnie.

• I'm trading as if we are seeing portfolio markups and that there is not much demand underneath.

I am playing today (and the last few days) as if we are seeing portfolio markups and that there is not much demand underneath.

At 15% net short.

• Now 15% net short.

I am now 15% net short and considering moving higher into this afternoon's ramp after adding to my SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) short at $188.40.

• And here is Boockvar's take.

And here is The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar's reaction to the Fed decision:

After acknowledging the improvement in the economy in the last few months off the very disruptive weather influenced Q1, the FOMC statement was almost identical to the one given in March. This should have been as expected as at this point in the well telegraphed taper (half way done) and with forward guidance already having been altered to the now vague benchmark, there was not much for the Fed to add except to say policy as they've laid out remains on track until the data tells them otherwise. The Fed understands the risks involved with a removal of accommodation and I believe in their eyes, boring is good right now. How long the market views boring however will soon be seen as we will now cross the threshold of being half way done with QE at the next meeting. They've now reduced it by a $480b annualized run rate, headed to $600b at the next meeting. I repeat my belief that tapering is tightening just as QE was a massive form of easing.

• Here is his take.

BTIG's Dan Greenhaus on the Fed's decision:

As expected, the Fed reduced purchases by $10 billion to a $45 billion pace.

If there was any variability expected, it was in the statement. In that regard and despite the terrible Q1 GDP number, the Fed shifted its language, now saying that "economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions."

The rest of the fed's statement is, more or less, identical to the previous month. That was largely expected.

Bottom line: Today's report is in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that tapering is on auto-pilot until its completion later this year.

• For the next couple hours.

I'll be in a business meeting for next two hours.

• The chart would be even worse if we tax-adjusted for offshore corporate cash/profits.

One more thing on my corporate cash column earlier today.

A savvy subscriber reminded me that the chart would be even worse if we tax-adjusted for offshore corporate cash/profits.

This, too, will be a limiting factor relating to capital spending and expansion plans.

• Specifically, GM, Ocwen and Monitise.

General Motors (GM), Ocwen (OCN) and Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) are all getting jiggy today.

• Run, don't walk, to read the latest from Pimco's Bill Gross.

Pimco's Bill Gross' latest commentary, "Money for Nothin' Writing Checks For Free."

Always a good read.

• Here are his musings at midday.

Midday market musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

Looks like they may stay on autopilot into FOMC statement at 2:00.

Rally in bonds looks 90% soft data related (gold flat to down as is crude).

Run rate at 12:15 projects to 670/750 million shares but month-end reweighting and/or post-FOMC action could change volume significantly.

• The index cotinues to trade poorly.

The Russell 2000, perhaps a leading indicator of the broader markets, continues to trade poorly.

• I am buying more shares.

I am addding to Baxter (BAX) long now.

• From BofA/Merrill.

Below is a handy economic/market cheat sheet from Brother Bank of America/Mother Merrill Lynch:

• This time, Chicago PMI.

Chicago PMI came in at its strongest number in six months at 63.0 vs. expectations of 57.0.

According to the Chicago ISM, new orders and production hit their highest levels since October, while employment bounced back from a weak March and prices paid fell.

This reading taken together with the ADP number this morning points to a much stronger economy than the first-quarter GDP number would suggest and shows a clear bounce back from the temporary factors holding down the first quarter.

Whether a second-quarter rebound is sustainable is another issue.

• I am buying more shares of the automaker.

I am adding to my General Motors (GM) long.

• In reality, cash held by U.S. corporations after deducting debt is at the lowest level in 15 years.

Many commentators have remarked that corporate cash holdings are at a record high and provide a buffer to the U.S. stock market.

In reality, cash held by U.S. corporations after deducting debt (both investment-grade and high-yield issuances) is at the lowest level in 15 years.

The risk that higher interest rates (through debt-servicng costs) will negatively impact domestic growth is heightened by the chart below.

Keep this in mind when talking heads suggest that capital spending will reawaken in the quarters ahead.

• Here is the firm's analysis.

Goldman Sachs on this morning's data:

BOTTOM LINE: GDP rose much less than expected in Q1, although the weak print appears to be largely due to one-off factors. The April ADP employment report was roughly in line with expectations. Employment costs rose less than expected in Q1, pointing to subdued wage pressures. We are starting our Q2 GDP tracking estimate at 3.0%.

KEY NUMBERS:

• GDP (advance) +0.1% for Q1 vs. GS 1.0%, median forecast 1.2%
• Personal consumption +3.0% for Q1 vs. GS +2.3%, median forecast +2.0%
• ADP employment +220k for April vs. GS +220k, median forecast +210k
• Employment cost index +0.3% for Q1 vs. median forecast +0.5%.

MAIN POINTS:

1. GDP grew only 0.1% in Q1 (vs. consensus +1.2%). Personal consumption rose 3.0%, although the increase appears to have been largely due to special factors in services spending, including a weather boost to utilities and Affordable Care Act-related healthcare spending. Outside of personal consumption, business fixed investment disappointed our expectations, falling 2.1%. Equipment investment was particularly weak (-5.5%). Exports fell 7.6%, with net exports subtracting eight-tenths from growth. Residential investment declined 5.7%, reflecting weaker housing data. As we expected, inventory accumulation returned to a more normal level ($87bn), subtracting a further six-tenths from growth. Government spending was roughly flat on the quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers¿excluding the effect of inventories and net exports¿rose 1.5%. Overall, we do not see Q1 growth as representative of the underlying trend, in light of weather distortions, the out-sized subtraction from net exports, and the drag from inventory normalization.

2. ADP employment increased 220k in April (vs. consensus 210k). The distribution of job gains by industry was similar to that seen in recent months, with the largest job gains in professional and business service jobs (+77k) and trade, transportation, and utilities (+34k). Construction employment added 19k, while manufacturing employment was a bit soft at +1k . March ADP employment growth was revised up by 18k to 209k. ADP has yet to prove itself as a reliable predictor of nonfarm payroll job growth, following methodological revisions in 2012.

3. The employment cost index¿which measures total compensation costs¿rose 0.3% at a quarterly rate in Q1 (vs. consensus +0.5%), a slowdown from +0.5% in Q4. On an unrounded basis, the gain was the slowest since 2009Q2. Wages and salaries also grew 0.3% in Q1 (vs. +0.5% in Q4) and an even slower 0.2% in the private sector. On an unrounded basis, wage and salary growth was the slowest in the 32-year history of the series. Benefit costs rose 0.4% in Q1 (vs. +0.6% in Q4). On a year-over-year basis, compensation costs for all civilian workers rose 1.8% and wages and salaries rose 1.7%. Overall, the report continues to suggest subdued inflationary pressure from the wage side.

4. We are starting our Q2 GDP tracking estimate at 3.0%.

• Still 10% net short.

I remain 10% net short after yesterday'sSPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) short.

• P&G is still a Buy at BTIG.

BTIG reiterates its Buy rating on Procter & Gamble (PG) this morning.

The stock has been a monster, and I am sticking with it.

• Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to Peter Boockvar:

While old news and obviously weather impacted, Q1 GDP grew just .1% annualized, well below expectations of up 1.2%. Nominal GDP was up just 1.4% vs the estimate of up 2.8% as the price deflator was higher by just 1.3%, .3% less than expected. Personal consumption however was a bright spot as it was higher by 3%, a full 100 bps more than expected BUT, Obamacare and utility spending was a large chunk of that as it fell under the services category which was higher by 4.4%. Gross private investment was a drag falling 6.1% driven by a 5.5% drop on equipment spending and 5.7% decline in residential construction. Trade also subtracted from GDP as exports fell 7.6% after a 9.5% gain in Q4 while imports were down just 1.4%. After a robust 2nd half of 2013 inventory build, inventories grew at the slowest pace since Q2 '13. Lastly, due to a decline in defense spending and state and local government spending, government consumption fell .5%. Bottom line, the real final sales gain of .7% is the slowest since Q1 '13 but we have to give Q1 the hall pass as we know parts of the economy saw a weather rebound in Q2 which will bring its GDP figure to above 3%. The question for markets is not about Q1 and Q2, its instead whether the 2nd half economy gets to the holy grail of 3%+ GDP growth. We remain in the 2.5%ish camp.

The April ADP employment report showing a private sector job gain of 220k follows 209k in March and 193k in February and compares with the 2013 average of 187k. The services sector added 197k of the 220k which was the most since November while goods producing added 24k vs 28k in March as construction and manufacturing job growth moderated slightly m/o/m. Bottom line, if confirmed by Friday's Payroll figure, about 200k job growth is enough for the Fed to continue its taper after today's meeting which will basically cut QE3/4 in half. Just as the question was asked in the GDP summary, are we just seeing some mean reversion in job gains that takes us back to the pre winter trend or are we on the cusp of a fresh acceleration in the economy. We still believe we'll just go back to pre winter trend in the 2nd half of 2013.

Notwithstanding no change in the average 30 yr mortgage rate, the MBA said refi applications fell 6.9% w/o/w to the lowest since 2008 and purchases were down by 4.4% to the lowest level in 6 weeks. Bottom line, refi's are down about 75% y/o/y as it would seem that anyone that had any interest in refinancing at this point has already done soon while purchases are lower by 21% y/o/y due to the subdued participation of the 1st time home buyer.

Lastly and from a stock market sentiment standpoint, II said Bulls rose to 54.7 from 51.6 while Bears were lower by 1.1 pts to 20.6 with the spread back to a 3 week low. Bears remain in hibernation while bullish sentiment, notwithstanding the sharp pullback in many highfliers and the underperformance in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ, has not been shaken to any discernible degree as they are not far from the highest level since January.

• Namely, U.S. and Japan GDP growth rates.

The weak first-quarter 2014 U.S. real GDP growth rate of only 0.1% did not surprise me, but it was well below consensus expectations.

I won't dwell on this, as we will likely hear a lot of discussion about the slowing U.S. economic growth release but little about what is occurring in Japan.

Over there, the Bank of Japan downgraded its GDP growth estimate for this year to +1.1% from +1.4% and maintained its inflation estimate of +2% by the end of March 2015.

The Bank of Japan's expectations are at odds with the market. The Japanese yen has been strong and the Nikkei weak, signaling a lack of confidence on the part of investors in Abenomics. So, either the Bank of Japan knows something the market doesn't, or it is making a policy mistake and risking falling behind the curve.

This reduction in growth expectations could increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan undertakes another major monetary stimulus, probably in July. This move potentially could ignite a second leg to the bull market in Japan.

But for now, the Nikkei (the hedge fund industry's favorite regional market as we approached January 2014) may remain pressured over the near term.

• Nautilus Research's picture is worth a thousand words.

From Nautilus Research: The visual and stats in support of "Short in May and Go Away."

• History rhymes.

Signs of a market topping process abound:

• As at previous market tops, signs of bubbles and excess speculation are ubiquitous.
• Market leadership is changing, consistent with two other periods that presaged market corrections (1972-1973 and 1999-2000).
• Bank stocks are typically a good market bellwhether, and they are falling both absolutely and on a relative basis in 2014.
• Bullish investor sentiment remains elevated and overly optimistic. (Note: Investors Intelligence bulls remain at about 50% while bears have only risen from 15% to 21%.) The buy-on-the-dip mentality continues to be the overriding investment mantra, with few expecting a serious decline.
• Market participation has narrowed this year while the overall averages have climbed, a classic technical divergence.
• Bears are an endangered species after dealing with a five-year period of ever-rising stock prices. There are no (except for perma-bears) emboldened bears out there now, because their ranks have been diminished. As a result, there is no apparent market cushion provided by the ursine cabal.

On Tuesday morning I pointed to evidence of speculative excesses and emerging bubbles, a condition apparent at most market tops.

As I mentioned late yesterday, Twitter's (TWTR) weak average user and use data for the quarter is yet another example of the bubble in the momentum names and social media sector, in which grand and unrealistic expectations have been juxtaposed with ridiculously high valuations.

In looking at the destruction of social media stocks over the last two months, it is clear that investors and traders purchased positive price momentum in the social media sector without knowledge of fundamentals, company economics and, most importantly, without a sense of value.

Plain and simple.

Worshiping at the altar of price works -- until it doesn't.

New tech and social media companies are nothing more than information aggregators driven by advertising that have been insanely overpriced.

Twitter, as measured by its short interest, is among the most hated. There is a reason why investment bankers priced its IPO only a few dollars more than the initial indication -- they couldn't get a higher valuation.

Twitter may be a great platform and concept, but the brain power and luck it will take to make it a sustainable $10-billion-plus company will be greater than what it took to create it from scratch.

Despite the recent drop in the Nasdaq, Facebook (FB) still possesses a $140 billion market cap. Twitter's capitalization exceeds $24 billion. LinkedIn (LNKD) trades at a market cap of more than $19 billion and a cool 750x earnings. Salesforce (CRM), which has been an awful stock, still has a $32 billion market cap (with financial statements that belong in the clouds because they are so damn confusing). Tesla (TSLA), down $60 from its high, is still priced as if gasoline won't have a commercial use in five years. Zillow (Z), although its commercials are touching, is priced at 20x sales, and last time I checked, it sells advertising and subscriptions. Then there is Yelp (YELP), a collection of restaurant (and other) reviews, clocking in at 20x revenue.

Bottom line: Avoid the whole social media space and cover your ears when talking heads, people in flip flops with MBAs and those walking into traffic on their smartphones tell you otherwise.

As to the broader market, short in May and go away.