• "Just one more thing." -- Lt. Columbo

This morning I pointed to evidence of speculative excesses and emerging bubbles in "Bubblicious."

In looking at the reaction to Twitter's (TWTR) results today and the destruction of social media stocks over the last two months, it is clear that investors and traders purchased positive price momentum in the social media sector without knowledge of fundamentals, company economics and, most importantly, without a sense of value.

Plain and simple.

Worshiping at the altar of price works ... until it doesn't.



New tech and social media companies are nothing more than information aggregators driven by advertising that have been insanely overpriced.



Twitter, as measured by its short interest, is among the most hated. There is a reason why investment bankers priced its IPO only a few dollars more than the initial indication. They couldn't get higher.



Twitter may be a great platform and concept, but the brain power and luck it will take to make it a sustainable $10-billion-plus company will be greater than what it took to create it from scratch.

As I mentioned in Barron's, don't even get me started on Facebook's (FB) valuation. LinkedIn (LNKD) is beginning it's descent. Zillow (Z) trades like it's a Russian bank and I can't even keep track of Yelp's (YELP) yelps.



Bottom Line: Avoid the whole space and cover your ears when talking heads, people in flip flops with MBAs and those walking into traffic on their smartphones tell you otherwise.

• How much to sell?

Small imbalance of $265 million to sell at the close.

Thanks for reading my diary today and enjoy the evening.

And God bless Uncle Vinnie.

• The investment mosaic is complicated and market conditions are always in a state of flux.

There is a lot of discussion of "sell in May and go away" on Columnist Conversation today.

I agree with The Divine Ms M.: Throw away all of the market adages ("sell in May and go away, "as January goes so goes the year, etc.); it is all a bunch of poppycock.

Investors want easy answers, when, in actuality, the investment mosaic is complicated and market conditions are always in a state of flux.

There are no adages or silly sayings that fit the bill.

The riddle of the sphinx was easier to solve than Mr. Market 's puzzle.

• It is only a matter of time before Warren Buffett offers to buy the NBA's Los Angeles Clippers at a 50% discount to market value.

Forbes Magazine has attached a $430 million value to the NBA's Los Angeles Clippers.

This figure sounds low, and values as high as $1 billion have been mentioned in the media.

Regardless of ultimate value, with the NBA's announcement that Donald Sterling has received a lifetime suspension, it is only a matter of time before Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A/BRK.B) Warren Buffett offers to buy the team at a 50% discount to market value.

The deal will likely be nearly fully funded by paper, a possible covenant lite loan from the seller (Sterling) with attached warrants (again, at below market value) for Sterling's Los Angeles mansion.

The Oracle nearly always wins -- and so goes life.

• See this analyst note from the firm's trading desk.

From Goldman Sachs' trading desk:

Bottom Line: My argument for well over a month is to set an affordable intermediate-term hedge that gives you time and staying power. My view seems very out of favor. That said, my conviction that a correction is coming is actually rising. In my opinion, the possible pattern of day-trading hedges/shorts is a recipe for people getting caught by a sharp, overnight gap move lower and/or a follow-on double-digit decline. Risk to the view is a sudden peaceful resolution to geopolitical events or a realization that the geopolitical tensions may not create any systemic financial risks.

• At least one 3-D printing stock has halved in price.

I mentioned in surprise No. 5 on my "15 Surprises for 2014" back in January was that "3-D printing stocks [would] halve in price."

Bingo!

Here is chart of 3D Systems (DDD), which have declined from $97 to $44!

Mission accomplished.

• Ludicrous, I know.

Let's see if the extended and consecutive up skien of Tuesdays stays intact today.

Based on my ludicrous forecast, I say no.

• Run, don't walk, to read the latest from John Kimelman in Barron's.

Barron's' John Kimelman addresses the "sell in May and go away" strategy as well as a possible breakup of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), which was the subject of one of my questions last year.

• My price is $11.

I am bidding for more Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) at $11.

• Here are his musisngs at midday.

Midday market musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

S&P has spent 90% of the session churning in that 1877/1881 resistance band. Nasdaq caused a brief scare when it dipped toward 4085 and threatened to go negative. Geopolitics does not look to be much of a factor with gold basically flat and the 10 year yield tethered to 2.70%.

Run rate at 12:15 projects to NYSE final volume of 750/830, just shy of Monday.

Two factors to watch are:

1. Any move by Nasdaq into negative territory.
2. Any clear move out of 1877/1881 band (especially any to the upside).

• We'll close down on the day.

For my ludicrous forecast, we are down on the day at the close

And for my Ludacris forecast, Emma Stone crushes a Ludacris verse in her lip-sync battle with Jimmy Fallon.

Emma gets Ludacris!

• That's the plan.

My tactical plan in the months ahead expressed in a succinct phrase: Short in May and go away.

• I am now back to 10% net short.

I don't like the action expressed by the strength of consumer staples and the bifurcated market.

My sense is that the rally over the last 24 hours continues to be part of the topping process.

I am now back to 10% net short.

Looking out over the past two months, my technical read is that the configuration looks more like a bearish broadening top than a healthy consolidation.

• This time, consumer confidence.

The Conference Board consumer confidence came in at 82.3, below expectations of 83.2 and prior of 83.9. The revised March number marked a six-year high, and today's reading, despite being a bit below that, is still the second-highest during that time.

The decline in confidence off of the March high was attributable to the present situation index, which dropped from 82.5 to 78.3. Despite the drop, the number remains elevated relative to April of last year, when the index stood at 61.0. The expectations index was little changed and remains toward the higher end of its range.

Looking at the details of the report, confidence at the lower-income levels showed a meaningful increase while the higher-income respondents showed a decline in confidence. The employment survey showed the Jobs Hard to Get survey rising to 32.5 from 31.4 in March but still well below the 36.9 number from a year ago; the Jobs Plentiful survey showed a decrease from 13.8 to 12.9, though it also remains considerably more positive than a year ago when it was at 9.7.

Overall, the number was a bit below expectations and saw weakening internals but nothing beyond the normal month-to-month volatility, while the general improving trend remained intact.

• That's a warning sign.

I have spent a lot of time discussing the notion that leadership changes are typically warning signs that a correction lies ahead.

Consumer staples were outstanding yesterday, with Clorox (CLX) and Procter & Gamble (PG) up by multiple points.

Below is another concern (defensive strength), expressed by Nautilus Research.

• Here is his take.

The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar parses the economic data:

According to S&P/CS, home prices in February (therefore somewhat dated) rose .76% m/o/m SA and 12.86% y/o/y, both a touch below the estimates. On a y/o/y basis, all 20 cities surveyed saw price gains with Las Vegas and San Francisco leading the way. Cleveland and New York saw the most moderate price gains. Bottom line, February was the 12th month in a row of double digit y/o/y price increases but at the slowest pace since August. Expect price gains for existing homes to moderate to single digits this year as the private equity buyer slows its pace of purchases and the 1st time buyer still remains a small minority. Price increases well above income growth on top of higher mortgage rates, lower inventory, stringent lending standards and the desire to rent have impeded the 1st time buyer. We should look at smaller price increases therefore as a good thing as these double digit gains are just not sustainable and need to be priced more competitively in order to entice that family to buy their 1st home instead of continuing to rent it. That said, the homeownership rate is finally back to its 50 year average and just as it overshot last decade, it is likely to undershoot in this one.

The Conference Board's index of Consumer Confidence in April was 82.3, down from 83.9 in March (revised from 82.3) and slightly below the estimate of 83.2 but it's still the 2nd best read since January '08. The Present Situation led the m/o/m decline while the Expectations component was little changed. The key answers to the labor market questions softened a bit as those that said jobs were Plentiful fell to 12.9 from 13.8 in March and 13.4 in February. Those that said jobs were Hard To Get rose to 32.5 from 31.4 in March and 32.4 in February. Of note, those that plan to buy a car/truck within 6 months fell to 10.6 from 13.0, matching the lowest since January '13. We'll see April vehicle sales on Thursday. Those that plan to buy a home rose to 5.6 from 5.3 last month and vs 5.7 in February. Bottom line, while moderating 1.6 pts from March, confidence still held pretty close to 6 yr highs but at 82.3, it still remains below its 30 year average of 92.8. Over these 30 years, the peak was 144.7 in January '00 and the trough was in February '09 at 25.3. Thus, this figure is only a coincident indicator and does not lead.

• I shorted SPY at $187.71.

I am moving back net short with short sale of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at $187.71.

• A special $1-per-share distribution today.

Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) goes ex-dividend with the special $1-per-share distribution today.

The performance in the Best Ideas list fails to take into account dividends and understates the performance of the idea.

• Namely, the Case-Shiller report.

The February Case-Shiller 20-city composite came in at +0.76% (month over month) compared to expectations of +0.8% and +12.86% (year over year)  vs. expectations of +12.86%.

Thirteen of the 20 cities saw price declines while seasonally adjusting puts the number of price declines at just one city. As would be expected, the strongest gains were out West, with San Francisco, San Diego and Portland leading the way, while the weakness was led by Cleveland, New York and Charlotte.

Overall, home prices continue to be the strongest performing aspect of the housing market. The year-over-year gains continue to be strong, though the month-over-month gains are certainly running at a reduced pace relative to last year.

I would expect this trend to continue with continued gains at a moderating pace.

• Walt Deemer's new book provides a simple explanation of the necessary role that technical analysis plays in the investment process.

I have long praised my former associate at Putnam Management Company in Boston, legendary technical analyst Walt Deemer.

Wally is the technical analysts' technical analyst. His views are consistently referenced by some of the best like "Uncle" Bob Farrell, Sr.

Wally's new eBook, The Essential Basics Of Technical Analysis For Financial Advisors, is in production and will be available on Amazon shortly.

Wally's book provides a simple explanation of the absolutely necessary role that technical analysis plays in the investment process that every investor needs to know, something he has wanted to write ever since he started explaining the stock market facts of life to me and his other colleagues at Putnam in the 1970s.

Here are a few quotes from the book and Wally's "words of wisdom":

A stock is not the same as the company.

• Price is everything.
• A chart is worth a thousand numbers.
• You can get 90% of the information from a stock chart in 10% of the time, but it takes the remaining 90% of the time to get the other 10%.
• No stock in an uptrend has ever gone bankrupt.
• When the time comes to sell, you won't want to.
• Relative strength in a bear market sucks.
• If you have to think about whether sentiment is a factor at any given time, it isn't.
• The more you doubt a particular sell signal, the more likely it is to be right.

Buy this book to learn about the technical way to invest properly!

• How can you deliver superior investment returns with so many investment dollars committed to value investing?

Warren Buffett was named the sixth most influential business person on CNBC's Top 25 List.

Warren will be appearing on CNBC in the next hour.

Here is a question I would ask The Oracle: When you started out there was little competition in the value investing field, but today the investment landscape is populated by numerous practioners of value investing. Recognizing that for the five-year period ending Dec. 31., 2013, you failed to beat the S&P 500 for the first time, how can you deliver superior investment returns in a more heightened competitive backdrop with so many investment dollars committed to value investing? Maybe John Bogle (Vanguard) has it right: Passive investing makes more sense today than in any other time in history!

• Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to Peter Boockvar:

Like a pinball machine where the ball is bouncing off all the bumpers, the stock market has been pretty much doing the same thing off its key levels with most everyone staring at all the same important moving averages. Yesterday, the Russell 2000 broke its 200 day moving average and bounced. The S&P 500 and DJIA did the same with its 50 day and rallied while the NDX traded from in between its 100 and 200 day and closed shy of its 100. Within the major indices and indicative of market action, IBB (biotech etf) breached its 200 day and closed above while the XLK (tech etf) touched its 100 day to the penny and bounced. A big winner in 2013 was consumer discretionary and that index also breached its 200 day yesterday only to bounce back above. The main outlier and index that has completely broken down is the social media etf, SOCL which is now below its 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. I highlight this all to quantify the mostly defined ranges the markets have entered with the DJIA and S&P obviously outperforming the other groups which begs the question of whether it will succumb or the laggards after the current washout will play catch up. I remain in the still lonely camp that it will be the former and not the latter and that the Fed and its tightening remain the real risk and not Russia's war games. In 2014 as compared to 2013, there has been a clear reevaluation of both valuation and risk taking, in the context of a moderate growth earnings and economic environment, which I attribute to the reduction in Fed accommodation. I expect this to continue as we get ever deeper into the taper which will be half way done by tomorrow.

April Economic confidence in the euro region fell slightly off its best level since July '11 to 102 from 102.5 and vs expectations of 102.9. A strong euro, negative bank loan growth to the private sector, China growth slowdown and a real economic threat to Russia, the world's 7th largest economy and a big customer of and big energy provider to Western Europe are the challenges European industry faces with the positive offset of finally a growing GDP and the region's best attempts to restructure its sclerotic economies. Consumer confidence in the region rose a touch but to the highest level since October '07. With respect to inflation in Europe, 6 German regions saw CPI rise in April m/o/m. The euro is little changed in response to the data but remaining sticky at the 1.38-1.39 level vs the US$ after Draghi told the German Parliament yesterday that QE is not happening anytime soon, if at all. Also, this combined with the German inflation prints has European sovereign debt lower. In the UK, their economy was a standout in Q1, gaining .8% q/o/q and 3.2% annualized, the best in the G7 but was a touch below the forecast of up .9% q/o/q.

In the US, this is quiet day ahead of a lot of important and potentially market moving events in the next three days with the FOMC statement, ISM data, vehicle sales, Q1 GDP and Friday's payroll number. Today will only see a very dated home price index for February and April consumer confidence.

• A number of bubbles and speculative excesses exist today.

Most bull markets end with the emergence of speculative excesses, some end with bubbles.

This one could be ending with both.

There are a number of bubbles and speculative excesses I see that exist today -- many of which rhyme with history.

1. There is a bubble in the IPO market in which 75% of the deals brought to market in 2014 are not profitable.

2. There has been a bubble in the social media sector in which stocks are being valued on the notion of addressable markets -- much like back in 1999 when Internet stocks were priced relative to eyeballs. As an example in how the the momentum names' popularity has been embraced, there was a bubble seen in Tesla's (TSLA) ability to sell $2 billion of converts a about two months ago after a fourfold increase in its share price. The convert was priced with an interest rate of only 50 basis points and demanded a 40%-plus conversion premium due in 2019. Those terms were nuts, and the current price of the convert reflects the stupidity of the offering's buyers -- and is well below its offering price now.

3. There is a bubble in the belief that the Fed's quantitative-easing policy is sufficient by itself to generate a self-sustaining domestic economic recovery.

4. There is a bubble in credit:

• in a recent offering in Greek bonds;
• in Spanish and Italian yields converging with U.S. yields;
• in investment grade spreads at +100 basis points over;
• in high yield spreads at +340 over Treasuries, which is within 100 basis points of May 2007, but more importantly, yields are 200 basis points lower than in May 2007 because of where Treasuries are trading;
• we are even seeing covenant light loans now are at 2x rate of issuance as they were in 2007.

5. There is also a bubble in the amount of debt as a percentage of global GDP that is held by the world's major central banks (that should cause exit concerns).

6. There are certainly excesses and bubbles in China's banking and shadow banking industries, as well as how many hundreds of trillions of derivatives notional outstanding exist.

7. Finally, there is a bubble in buybacks. Goldman Sachs reports that March 2014 was the busiest March on record, with $73 billion in buyback authorizations. For the first quarter, we saw 291 authorizations at a value of $197 billion. We are now on pace for $719 billion in authorizations for 2014, third most ever behind 2013 and 2007. We all know that corporations typically buy high and sell low. The last time we saw this rush to buy was 2007, the year the market peaked.

• Run, don't walk, to listen to my interview from yesterday's episode of 'The Hays Advantage' on Bloomberg Radio.

Yesterday I was on "The Hays Advantage" on Bloomberg Radio with The Divine Ms. H(ays).

Here is a link to the podcast.