• But it won't last.

There is a small amount of stock to sell market on close ($200 million).

The markets had a rather predictable bounce from the schmeissing on Friday and Monday.

As I wrote, I expect the strength to be short-lived.

Thanks for reading my Diary and enjoy your evening.

And God bless Uncle Vinnie.

• According to a Bloomberg story this afternoon, leverage ratios at the major U.S. banks will continue to be curbed.

"The biggest U.S. banks will face greater restrictions on borrowing power than their overseas competitors under supplemental leverage ratio rules adopted by regulators in Washington today...  Eight lenders, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., are required to keep loss-absorbing capital at least 5 percent of total assets under the rules designed to curtail risk in the financial system. The requirement approved by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency -- and set for a Federal Reserve vote today -- surpasses the 3 percent minimum set in a global agreement by the Basel Committee on  Banking Supervision... "

Banks might be a bit pressured by this news.

• I just added to Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) at $10.50.

• Specifically, yesterday's tranche.

Calling an audible: I took off the Apple (AAPL) add-on I made yesterday for an $0.80-per-share loss.

The underperformance of Apple is conspicuous, and although I am of the view that a weak quarter has been discounted in the share price, I would rather be safe than sorry.

And I would rather have a smaller stake going into the quarter at this point.

• TBF.

My largest buy today is ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF). My largest loss today is TBF.

• Here are his comments.

The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar on the auction: 

The 3 year note auction, typically a bore, is now more of a focus because of the potential Federal Reserve exit strategy that lies ahead. Obviously we have to get thru the rest of tapering but if we do (and don't assume as its no guarantee by year end), 2015 will be the year of rate hikes with the pace and amount being the only question. Today's auction however told us nothing new about sentiment as it was about in line with expectations as the yield was dead on with the when issued and the bid to cover of 3.36 was only slightly above the 12 month average of 3.28. The level of direct and indirect bidders also approximated the recent average. To put the priced yield of .895% each year for the next 3 into perspective, of the 16 FOMC members surveyed at the last meeting, 12 expect the fed funds rate to be between 2-4.25% by year end 2016 and all 16 see the rate at 3.5-4.25% by year end 2017. Also, the yield is below the 3 year implied inflation breakeven of 1.77% and if the Fed is right that the economy is about to see 3%+ GDP growth, the resultant drop in the unemployment rate will be faster than they assume, thus making it more likely rate hikes happen sooner rather than later. If we are stuck in a 2.5% type growth rate on the other hand, the Fed will have more time assuming inflation behaves which is no given. On a closing basis, the CRB index right now is rising to the highest level since October 2012.

• Here are his musings at midday.

Midday musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

Looks like another "Turnaround Tuesday" so far.  We've had 14 Tuesdays this year and 10 have closed higher (H/T Jon).

Bargain hunting in the wounded momentum stocks got a boost by late session rally Monday in IBB (the biotechs).  The IBB sold off between 10:00 and 10:30 only to rebound, encouraging the Nasdaq buyers.

Also helping bulls was S&P holding at the 1837/1841 critical support band (Monday's low 1841; today 1837).  If they roll over again, those levels are critical.

Geo-political looks like a non-issue with dollar getting battered.  That seems to be result of BOJ "stand pat" and resultant spike in the yen (see today's Comments).

Run rate at noon looks like an NYSE final of 740/820 million shares.  So far it's an oversold bounce and not much more.

• I'll be back around 2:00 p.m. EDT.

I am out at a lunch meeting for a few hours.

Back at around 2:00 p.m. EDT.

• To my bond short at least.

With job openings up +4% and a strong +5% increase in the private sector; hirings also increased in Feburary vs. January and are up +1.1% year over year.

These data embolden me on my bond short position.

• Here is the firm's take.

Goldman Sachs comments on the JOLTS report:

JOLTS job openings rose to a new post-recession high of 4,173k (vs. consensus 4,020k) in February, from a downwardly-revised 3,874k in January. The hiring and quit rates¿cited by Chair Yellen as valuable indicators of labor market strength¿remained unchanged at 3.3% and 1.7%, respectively. Both the hiring and quit rates remain well below norms seen in the last recovery, indicating less dynamism in the labor market.

• The big names paid a bit more for the shares during last week's private placement.

Mastercard (MA), Omega Advisors et al. paid 68 pence for Monitise (MONI.L) in last week's private placement.

This morning, Monitise is trading at 62.50 pence in London.

Enough said.

• Be on the lookout for one.

High-beta-, high-tech-oriented hedge fund Coatue (after a large 9% loss in its portfolio in March) has announced that it is returning about 25% of its capital back to investors.

If this is happening to one of the best specialized hedge funds in technology, we must assume this has happened elsewhere.

We must assume this is, in part, the reason for the schmeissing of the Nasdaq that began last Thursday.

If so, when the funds steps aside from their liquidations, a vigorous rally could ensue.

If this occurs, I expect it to be playable -- but short-lived.

• OTC at $1.05.

I haven't purchased Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) in months, but I just paid $1.05 for more OTC shares.

• I am back to market-neutral.

• Huge in TBF long and I added to my TLT short.

By far my largest dollar value on the buy side is in ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) today.

I also added to my iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) short at $108.90.

• Don't try to catch them in high-beta, high-tech, high-octane land.

I would not look to catch a falling knife in high-beta, high-tech, high-octane land.

• Completely covered on the open.

I am out of my PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) short on the opening.

• I believe I will have an opportunity to reshort the names at higher prices.

I have covered most of my life insurance shorts this morning on the opening -- down to tag ends.

I believe I will have an opportunity to reshort the names at higher prices.

• At $30.32.

I am adding to my already large ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) long at $30.32 -- see yesterday's interest rate post.

• I have refined my entry point from $1.15 to $1.00.

Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) is getting sold in Europe this morning.

I will begin to nibble at $1.00.

Before the tech meltdown, I lived at $1.15 as a buyer, but after it and into the downturn, I have refined my entry point.

• Samsung and Apple are likely going through difficult quarters. 

Samsung lowers guidance.

As I have repeatedly written, Apple (AAPL) is likely going through a dificult quarter as well.

I added to my Apple at around $523 yesterday on the belief that relatively weak business conditions are known and materially discounted.

• For three different time frames.

Goldman Sachs economists have revised their euro/U.S. dollar forecasts to 1.38, 1.34, and 1.30 in three-, six-, and 12-month time frames from 1.38, 1.40, and 1.40 previously. 

• He is one of the great contrarians and businessmen in the country.

The brilliant Sam Zell is guest hosting "Squawk Box" this morning.

This is must-watch television.

Listen to Sam closely, as he is one of the great contrarians and businessmen in the country.

Here is a column that I wrote about Sam Zell for The Edge (my old trading diary on Street Insight and Real Money Silver, predecessors to Real Money Pro) and here is a follow-up editorial that I wrote about Sam in Barron's. Both were written back in late 2006, when the last bubble was a-bubbling.

• Here is today's headline.

Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) makes a headline in Financial Times this morning.

• Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to Peter Boockvar:

The NFIB small business optimism index rose 2 pts to 93.4 in March but seems more of a weather improved jump as it fell 2.7 pts in February and compares with 93.9 in December. The components were very mixed as Plans To Hire fell to 5% from 7% in February and 12% in January and that is the weakest since October. Plans to Increase Cap Ex fell 1 pt and those Expecting a Better Economy was up just 1 pt after falling 8 pts last month. After dropping 12 pts in February, those Expecting Higher Sales rose by 9 pts. There was some inflationary implications in the data as those that Plan Higher Prices rose to the most since August '12. In terms of wage inflation, pressures seem to be building as 23% reported "higher worker compensation", the best since 2008. But, "the issue is how much of the gains are in benefits rather than take home pay." Those that Plan to Increase Inventory rose 6 pts to 1%, the most since May. The NFIB chief economist summed up the mediocre report by saying "While the index still can't seem to get above 95, we can be encouraged that the economy is at least crawling forward and not heading in reverse."

The yen is higher after BoJ head Kuroda said this after leaving the current aggressive (BoJ balance sheet currently headed toward 50% of GDP) unchanged, "We are on track to the price stability target, so we are not considering any kind of additional easing now." He remains confident that their 2% inflation target will be reached by next year. This however is a very fluid situation as the BoJ sees how the Japanese economy deals with the just hiked consumption tax. Kuroda said as such, acknowledging their need to be flexible with QE but it does say a lot that even after taking their balance sheet to twice the level that the Federal Reserve has relative to the size of GDP that the BoJ thinks it may not be enough. The central bank kool aid of QE is quite intoxicating, not just to markets but to central bankers themselves. The Nikkei closed down 1.4% on the stronger yen and US equity weakness.

The equity selloff in Asia however was not broad based as Chinese stocks bucked the trend following the hopes for a stabilization in their economy following some modest stimulus steps announced last week. The Shanghai index closed up 1.9% to a 6 week high and the Hong Kong China index closed at an 11 week high. Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore also traded up. Commodity prices are also remaining sticky and continue to show signs of life. It's easy to say this proves some global economic health which we hope is the case but the rise in commodity prices this time around has been more due to supply issues, particularly with food and crude prices also remain resilient. The Aussie$, a China and commodity proxy, is rallying to the highest since November in response and the Canadian $, another commodity currency, is rising to a 3 month high vs the US$. The broad US dollar weakness today has gold back above $1300.

In Europe, the euro continues its bounce after another ECB member said "there is at this stage no sign of deflation, or widespread price declines" and instead are "concentrated mainly in the stressed countries." The comments the past few days from members don't sound like a committee on the cusp of a rate cut, let alone anything unconventional. I believe the ECB though does want to help spur SME business lending via some sort of QE but current regulatory and structural constraints prevent it in large size right now. The euro has now gotten back all of what it lost after Draghi's press conference last week and European sovereign debt is down for a 2nd day. The pound is also jumping today after a better than expected February IP report in the UK.

• I'm going to use this time to do some more research.

As it is written in Ecclesiastes, there is an appointed time for everything.

There is a time for every event under heaven.

A time to give birth (hi, Ava Dorothy Kass!), a time to plant and a time to uproot what is planted.

A time to kill and a time to heal.

A time to tear down and a time to build up.

Today and this week (starting at 8:30 a.m. EDT this morning), I have more than 10 separate research meetings with potential investments that I plan to share in my diary.

What better time than during a market correction to lay the seeds for fertile crops later in the year?

Turn, turn, turn.  

Research, research, research.

• An important cyclical top is in the process of being established.

Thus far overseas stock markets are mixed this morning.

U.S. futures are 2-3 points lower.

Though the Nikkei is down by over 1%, the other Asian markets mostly finished in the green.

China climbed by 2%, but Europe has headed back into the red after attempting to rally at the open.

Overall, investor sentiment seems fragile, though some (see BTIG) are looking for a near-term bounce.

The real issue to many is if Friday-Monday's market swoon is contained by the 1840 level or if prices are headed through technical support.

I favor the latter view and see an important cyclical top that is in the process of being established.

• The firm forecasts a short-term market rebound.

From my friends at BTIG, an upbeat assessment for a short-term market rebound:

This was the 9th time that the S&P 500 has lost more than 1% on the day of the Nonfarm Payroll report, as well as the day after. Of the other 8 occurrences, 6 marked a short-term low. The two exceptions were October 2008 and January 2009 during the height of the financial crisis. For those curious, the dates were 5/6/02, 8/5/02, 10/7/02, 6/9/03, 5/10/04, 10/6/08, 1/12/09 and 6/7/10.(from Sentiment Trader)

Our Analytics team  took out '08 and 09 during financial crisis---stats below:

5/6/02 ¿ opened up 80c, made new low 40c below yesterday, next day +40 handles, 25 more handles over next 7 sessions

8/5/02 ¿ opened up 1.50, up another 100 handles next 15 sessions

10/7/02 ¿ next day +1.50, 2 days later fell 3.50, +120 handles 10 sessions later

6/9/03 ¿ next day +1.00, +30 more handles over next 4 sessions

5/10/04 ¿ next day +1.20, day after down 25 handles intraday but closed green, +35 handles next 3 weeks

6/7/10 ¿ next day new low by 80c the close up 10 handles, +60 handles next 7 sessions

In addition the oscillators are very oversold, especially on the Russell and Nasdaq

• It is my view that the correction has just started.

The elevator is always harder on the downside than the escalator on the upside.

During this correction, as I continue to highlight, cash reserves should be above average, and investors (and traders) should err on the side of conservatism.

It is my view that the correction has just started. While it will likely be punctuated by sharp rallies (and trading opportunities), most investors should watch from the gallery.

If I am correct, marvelous investment opportunities will arise, but before we get there, there will probably be a lot more pain.

As I mentioned yesterday, I have been researching a bunch of companies that I want to buy but only at my price.

I await the right pitch.

Patience is a virtue and will be rewarded in the fullness of time.

I start the day slightly net short.

• The UConn Huskies are national champs. 

Congratulations to the UConn Huskies -- that was one shining moment.

For those who didn't look in the pages of my diary and Real Money Pro two weekends ago, here is a column that takes us through lessons taught by the great North Carolina State coach Jim Valvano.

Both last night's video and my column are nice ways to start the day.