• MacDailyNews says the story is overblown.

"One last thing."

 - Lt. Columbo

MacDailyNewsreports that The Wall Street Journal's Apple (AAPL)-Comcast story is not accurate and says the news being overblown on Wall Street

• My mavens on the floor of the exchange see about $600 million to sell market on close.

• On Apple, that is.

And here is the rest of the story on the fundamental side of Apple (AAPL).

• There's a good chance.

Unlike last week, Apple (AAPL) looks like it might break through its technical resistance at the moving average this time.

• Shares have failed to follow through on yesterday's advance.

General Motors (GM) is a stiff, with little follow-through to its intraday advance yesterday.

That said, I continue to add today.

• Another headline made.

Mastercard (MA) and Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) to partner to deliver digital payment services.

• It is good to see the liquidity, as initially it was a concern of mine.

I have done a hefty percentage of the trading in ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) today.

It is good to see the liquidity, as initially it was a concern of mine.

• Google (GOOG) announces large price drops for its cloud offerings.

• Here are his musings at midday.

Midday market musings from Sir Arthur Cashin:

As I told Carl Quintanilla on Squawk on the Street this morning around 10:30, the market is checking its own vital signs to see how healthy it is.

This morning's spike opening in the S&P and Nasdaq failed to match or exceed Monday's opening high ¿ a cautionary sign.  On Monday and Friday, we opened strong and faded over the day.  Not a good pattern.  As I told Carl, watch the afternoon, particularly the final hour.

Run rate is unspectacular with a 12:15 projection of an NYSE final of 630/710 million shares.

• I think maybe it is.

I have argued recently that the excesses in the IPO market could foreshadow broader stock market weakness. Jim "El Capitan " Cramer has written the same.

Software as a service Castlight Health's (CSLT) initial public offering was priced in the midteens this March.

The shares opened at $37.50 and eclipsed $40 a share during the first day of trading.

Castlight's shares have fallen like a bag of hammers since then and are now more than 40% off their highs.

Below is a chart of the company's first eight trading days.

This might very well have been the SaaS top.

• Uncertainty and volatility remain.

Again, for emphasis: This is an ideal environment for opportunistic trading but less so for the buy-and-hold crowd.

Uncertainty and volatility has been our investment backdrop, and it continues to be so.

• It's $10.75.

Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) is giving back most of yesterday's gain.

I am a $10.75 buyer now.

• Namely, Case-Shiller, new-home sales and German business sentiment.

The Case-Shiller index came in at +0.85% month over month (seasonally adjusted), higher than estimate of +0.60%. On a year-over-year basis, the 20-city composite was up +13.24%. The FHFA report showed +7.4% housing price growth year over year.

Overall the report showed continued strong price gains at the headline level but at a decelerating rate. The numbers look much stronger on a seasonally adjusted basis than NSA, as weather likely affected at least some of the cities in January. On an NSA basis, only seven cities (of 20) showed positive month-over-month gains. The report notes that the housing recovery likely took a breather due to cold weather and that recent data still point to housing gains in 2014, albeit at a slower rate than 2013. Given the two-month lag in reporting these numbers, we will have to wait until May to see if March shows a meaningful rebound from the cold weather or if there is a true slowing in the housing market.

New-home sales for February came in at 440,000, just under expectations of 445,000, while January was revised down from 468,000 to 455,000. This marks the lowest level of new-home sales in five months. Weather, of course, explains some of the weakness as the Northeast saw a decline off of January levels, though the Southeast and West were also weak while the Midwest was strong, implying that not all of the weakness is weather-related.

Months supply ticked up to 5.2 months, though it still remains very low from a historical perspective (multi-decade lows), and the recent tick up is likely related to recent demand weakness as opposed to meaningful supply expansion. Once again, we await cleaner numbers to get a true sense of what's happening in the housing market.

German IFO business sentiment survey came out this morning. The reading was overall relatively in line with expectations with the current conditions portion showing continued positive momentum while the expectations survey slowed a bit. The current conditions index is at its highest since early 2012 while the expectations survey is at its lowest point since last October. The overall trend is clearly higher for business activity in Germany and Europe overall though the pace of change may be slowing just a bit. From a sector perspective, retail business conditions in Germany jumped higher in February and maintained that level in March while construction turned from slightly positive (+0.6) to negative (-3.5).

• That was fast!

I am taking a quick $0.90 out of the short PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) rental now ($88.21).

Quick and good trade.

Staying in motion, like little Ava (I mean Eva!).

• It's TBF.

Though not as liquid as the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), I am replacing it with ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF), which is the unlevered inverse of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as decay concerns me (as Tim "Not Judy or Phil" Collins has recently written).

In my Best Ideas list, I am taking off TBT at $68.60 and replacing it with TBF at $30.56 even though it is a less liquid ETF.

• At $89.11.

I just took a short rental in PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) at $89.11.

• Did I mention that Mr. Market has no memory from day to day?

• I will be back shorting the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 indices but not quite yet.

• At $61.35.

Apropos of my opening missive on banks, I am shorting JPMorgan Chase (JPM) at $61.35 against my Citigroup (C) and Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) longs.

• I'm searching for an alternative to TBT.

The more I cogitate over ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), the more I recognize the decay in price and the possibility that this vehicle can track poorly to the bond.

I am going to figure out a better vehicle to capitalize on the short bond thesis in the days ahead.

• Reduce exposure to bank stocks on recent strength.

In "The Gospel According to Peter Boockvar," Peter made some solid comments about the link between market speculation and monetary policy.

I recognize that there is a body of market participants who worship at the altar of price momentum, the largest being the quants ("kill 'em before they kill us!").

Sometimes, however, when traders and investors blindly follow charts from the lower left to the upper right (hat tip Sir Denny Gartman!) those late to the party get burned, as has been the case recently with the biotech sector.

This brings me to the current infatuation with and rotation into money center bank stocks.

I own only two bank stocks: Citigroup (C) and Northwest Bancshares (NWBI).

Though the financial sector has recently perked up, one has to question the piling on.

I have spent my life following the financial sector -- I understand the group's profit dynamics.

I coauthored the book Citibank with Ralph Nader and his Center for the Study of Responsive Law in the early 1970s.  And a few years later, while I was working for "The Chief" at Putnam Management in Boston, I spent five solid years researching the sector. (During that period, I was voted the No. 1 buy-side banking/thrift industry analyst by Institutional Investor.)

Banking industry profits are basically a function of several basic variables: the level of loan demand, FICC activity (i.e., trading in products tied to interest rates, corporate credit, mortgages, currencies and commodities), the trend in credit quality, interest rates and the slope of the yield curve.

Loan demand remains tepid, growing slowly. In part, this is a function of subpar economic growth, pressures (regulatory and expenses) on small businesses and the liquid state of the country's largest companies (which also have access to cheaper, public money).

FICC activity has contracted and has turned from being a tailwind to being a drag on bank industry profits.

Credit quality has been improving for three to four years. Loan-loss provisions have been consistently declining (and reserve releases have expanded), acting as less of a headwind to banking industry profitability in recent years. But the benefit of those non-operating factors is beginning to diminish now and will be less of a tailwind in 2014-2015.

Which leaves us to interest rates and the slope of the yield curve. This is the most important profit contributor and should be the most worrisome area for bank investors and bank profits, because it will likely put a limit on any improvement in net interest income (and margins).

Of late, while bank stocks have perked up, investors have been ditching short-term Treasury notes in favor of buying longer-term Treasury bonds. As a result, the slope of the yield curve (the difference between five-year and 30- year yields) is at the narrowest since 2009.

Below is a chart that exhibits the flattening of the yield curve.

Stated simply, this yield curve flattening portends disappointing net interest income (and margins) through the remainder of 2014.

And of all the basic factors contributing to banking industry profits, net interest income is by far the most significant contributor.

Some strategists and commentators in the business media count financial stocks among their favorite groups. Over the past few days, I have presented some of the concerns mentioned in today's opening missive to these folks, but they push back and say that the sector is inexpensive.

To me, there are numerous reasons why the banking group will not experience a further valuation upgrade -- the most important being the impact of legislation on operating leverage and profit sources.

For the banking industry, after nearly suffocating the world's economies in 2007-2009, it is different this time.  Mandated leverage of "only" 12x-15x compared to over 30x (in certain cases) back then presents less profit centers and opportunities for the industry in the present and future.

As a result of these observations/analysis, I would not chase the current strength in the banking sector, and I would consider paring down exposure in light of the sector's recent share price advance.

Or as a famously successful New York Stock Exchange floor trader Joe Gruss once told me, "Yell and roar and sell some more."

• The company's business model is moving away from licensing.

Here is a slidedeck provided by Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF) entitled "Accelerating User Adoption, The Mobile Commerce Network and the launch of Monitise Signature," which explains the company's business model shift from licensing.

Such a move is relatively uncommon, but it underscores Monitise's long-term confidence in the company's product. By lowering the near-term financial barriers, Monitise will likely boost its user growth, allowing the company to participate directly in that (viral) growth.

As to Monitise's growth projections (total users, average revenue per user, RBITDA margins, etc.) presented in yesterday's release, I believe they will all prove conservative -- perhaps substantially so. And that should result in a much higher forecast P/E multiplier attached to the eventual outcomes.

Below is Goldman Sachs' research response:

Monitise issued a strategic update on March 24, whereby it announced Mastercard as a strategic partner as well as a placing for 10% of the shares. The company also said it is to accelerate its shift to a subscription revenue model away from on-premise which will dampen FY14 and FY15 revenue growth and shift EBITDA profitability to FY16, a year later than current consensus and our estimates. However most importantly, the company's 5-year plan of 200m users, $500mn user generated revenues, implied $625mn total revenues and 30% EBITDA margins in FY18 is c.12% above our revenue estimates and c.28% above our EBITDA estimates....

We believe the addition of Mastercard in addition to current partners Visa Inc and Visa Europe potentially establishes Monitise as one of the few open and highly scalable platforms enabling mobile money. This should allow the wider ecosystem ¿ banks, retailers and telco's to seamlessly plug in and onboard users. Furthermore, the shift to a subscription-based revenue model, and opening of the APIs will reduce upfront costs for customers and facilitate faster and wider user take-up. We expect Mastercard to leverage Monitise's m-commerce functionalities in both DMs and EMs. We note Monitise's FY18 user base guidance is well above our 138m estimate, likely reflecting the addition of Mastercard. ARPUs of GBP2.50 are broadly in line with our GBP2.60 estimate but likely veering to the conservative. The FY18 implied revenue guidance implies a 54% CAGR (FY13-18), above our 50% estimate. EBITDA margins of 30% are above our 27% estimate....

We reiterate our CL Buy as we believe Monitise is increasingly becoming a key platform enabler of mobile money across banking, payments and commerce in DMs and EMs. We are not overly concerned by the near-term impact on profitability and revenue growth as this is compensated for by the strategic strengthening of the platform, and the longer-run financial benefits & visibility of a subscription model as evidenced in FY18 guidance.

• Here is his morning commentary.

The gospel according to Peter Boockvar:

With the NASDAQ biotech etf IBB off 12.5% from the February high to yesterday's low many are trying to find meaning in the action. I highlight biotech because there is no other sector that can provide the enormous potential upside but also with the greatest amount of risk. The group is thus a perfect testing ground in measuring the appetite for speculation. Certainly a catalyst for the selloff was last week's letter to Gilead Sciences from Rep. Henry Waxman asking why one of their drugs cost so much. The micro context for this pullback was a 300% move higher since March '09 and a P/E multiple of 55 times 2014 earnings for the index. The macro backdrop and what is not being discussed as a factor in the weakness is quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve that is slowly dripping away. In 2010, IBB peaked in March just as QE1 was ending and then proceeded to fall 19% in the following few months. QE2 ended in June 2011, IBB peaked a week later and then dropped 23% in the month that followed. Of course, the same can be said for the entire stock market during those time frames. Now, QE we know is not ending in one fell swoop as it did in those previous occasions but the point is the same. QE turns on all matter of speculative risk taking and the reversal of it does the opposite.

To go back to my beginning of the year beer goggles analogy of what QE does to the appetite of investors, the goggles are now clearing up and it's time for a reevaluation of valuations. This says nothing about the underlying fundamentals of this very exciting group. What it does say though is what is the right price to pay for these stocks and for the stock market as a whole, particularly the high fliers for that matter. When QE is on, that price is higher, when it goes off, it will be lower. It is just the nature of what Fed accommodation is. It pulls forward future returns and with the economy more broadly it does the same with business activity, just as we saw with cash for clunkers, the home buying tax credit, any income tax rebate and home building in the mid 2000's. The impact of easy money is always temporary and there is always a sobering up when it reverses. Monetary policy no matter how aggressive does not create new wealth that wouldn't have been created otherwise, it just alters the timing of it. Bottom line, notwithstanding Henry Waxman, I believe it is no coincidence that all of a sudden biotech and other very expensive NASDAQ names are experiencing a sharp correction just as the FOMC is one meeting away from basically cutting QE3/4 in half.

There was a slight moderation in the confidence of German business as the March IFO number fell to 110.7 from 111.3 and a touch below the estimate of 110.9. Current Conditions though did rise to the best level since April '12 but the Outlook was down by 2 pts to a 5 month low likely in response to Russian concerns, the slowdown in China and the strong euro. French business confidence rose by 1 pt but remains in the 2 pt range its been in since September. CPI in the UK moderated to 1.7% y/o/y as expected from 1.9% in January. It's the lowest since October '09 and is finally get closer to the y/o/y wage gains that the average worker is earning in the UK. Lastly, on the strong euro and prospect for QE one day in the Euro zone, Bundesbank head Weidman said negative deposit rates could weaken the euro but was unconvinced on its credit transmission mechanism and he didn't rule out QE but also said it was necessary to "ensure that the prohibition of monetary financing is respected." Bottom line, they don't seem close to changing policy for now.