DAILY DIARY
Enjoy Your Evening
- Thanks so much for reading my Diary today.
And God bless you, Uncle Vinnie.
Stocks React Poorly to Good News
- Homebuilders failed to rally on a strong housing report, and Goldman Sachs is down on a strong earnings report.
It is said that it is not the news that counts but rather the manner in which stocks respond to news.
One day does not a market make.
Nevertheless, it is interesting that the homebuilders failed to rally on a strong housing report and Goldman Sachs (GS) is down on a strong (and better-than-expected) earnings report.
The Dodgers
- Here's my favorite Sandy Koufax story.
Back in 1965 Sandy Koufax refused to pitch in the first game of the World Series because it fell on Yom Kippur, a Jewish high holy day.
In his place, Don Drysdale (the Dodger's ace right hander) pitched and gave up seven runs in 2-2/3 innings.
Sandy relayed to me that when the manager, Walter Alston, came to the mound to take the ball out of Drysdale's hands and bring in a reliever, Drysdale said, "Coach, I bet right now you wish that I was Jewish also!"
Post Script: While Sandy chose to fast and attend synagogue in Minneapolis that day, he did pitch in Games two, five and seven during that World Series. Sandy won the fifth and seventh games (a three-hit shutout) and was MVP of the series.
Sleepwalking
- From Sir Arthur Cashin:
Sleepwalk in front of Bernanke testimony continues.
Kansas Fed's Esther George, a known hawk, provides an excuse for cancelled bids with call to begin tapering now. That vacuum allowed for drift to this morning's lows.
Run rate at 1:00 is just a shade over Monday's - projects NYSE final 570/650.
All-Stars, Indeed
- Truly amazing.
I love baseball.
Tonight is the MLB All-Star Game.
My cousin Sandy Koufax played his last All-Star game in 1966.
Hubert Humphrey threw out the first pitch.
The American League had five future Hall of Famers!
Check out the starting National League lineup in which Sandy was the starting pitcher.
What a starting outfield for Sandy's team: Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente and Hank Aaron!
Truly amazing.
Tune In
- I will be expanding on my ursine market outlook on 'Futures Now' on CNBC.com at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
A heads up: I will be on "Futures Now" on CNBC.com at 1:00 p.m. EDT with Princess Jackie.
I will be expanding on my ursine market outlook.
No Grass Growing Under Goldman's Feet!
- The firm looks to issue about $1.5 billion of new five-year debt.
Goldman Sachs (GS) gets right to it post-earnings, looking to issue about $1.5 billion of new five-year debt at +155 over (or about 2.93%).
Fed Hawk Says It's Time to Adjust
- The Fed's George stated that 'it is now time to begin adjustments to the bond-purchasing program.'
Break in: The Fed's George (hawkish FOMC dissenter) in an interview this morning: "QE raises questions on cost and benefits; it is now time to begin adjustments to the bond-purchasing program."
Added to QQQ Short
- I shorted more shares at $75.49.
I just added to my PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) short at $75.49.
Otherwise very quiet today.
From the Street of Dreams (Part Deux)
- Altisource Residential is initiated at Credit Suisse with an Outperform.
Credit Suisse has initiated coverage of Altisource Residential (RESI) with a $22-a-share target and an Outperofrm rating.
Haters Gonna Hate (Part Deux)
- Life is too short to be a punching bag for small people with large egos.
In "Haters Gonna Hate," I outlined why I quit Twitter.
In this morning's New York Times, Joe Nocera's "My Case Against Twitter" launches some similar concerns to mine and, in fact, interviews me on why I have quit Twitter.
Bottom line: The digital feed empowers a number of mean, weak, angry and misinformed people who hide under the shroud of anonymity.
Life, stated simply, is too short to be a punching bag for small people with large egos.
And it is not worth navigating through a slew of sharks to get to the good fish!
Recommended Outing
- Run, don't walk, to The Bitter End in NYC tomorrow night to see Steve Liesman and the Mooncussers.
Run, don't walk, to watch CNBC's Steve Liesman and the Mooncussers at this legendary Greenwich Village music venue in New York City tomorrow night, July 17 at 10 p.m. EDT.
The full Mooncussers lineup includes Steve Liesman on lead guitar, Peter Carucci on bass, Dan "Chopper" Carillo on drums, Dave Gross on mandolin and the incomparable Meredith DiMenna on vocals.
It's going to be a smokin' show with new covers and originals.
147 Bleecker Street (between Thompson and LaGuardia)
New York City, NY 10012
$10 at the door
Here's the Facebook event page. Check out the band on Facebook.
Connecting the Dots
- They all add up to color me more bearish.
A list of concerns:
- Projections for second-quarter 2013 real GDP in the U.S. is down to under +1%.
- Brent crude is approaching $110 a barrel.
- United Parcel Service (UPS) cautions about domestic economic growth.
- Weak U.S. case shipments are out today at Coca-Cola (KO)
- Citigroup (C) cautions in its conference call yesterday that the North American consumer looks weak for the second half.
- Refinancings are collapsing, an important source of household cash flow.
- Now the Fed is on the doorstep of tapering, and interest rates are climbing.
- The U.S. dollar is getting stronger, laying the groundwork for weakening exports.
Despite all of this, strategists and market bulls are almost universally pointing to a stronger second half of 2013, which has formed the framework for market optimism.
Will those forecasts prove to be accurate?
Color me more bearish.
Early-Morning Market Look
- Let's take a peek at the overnight and early-morning price action in various asset classes.
Quiet:
- S&P futures flat;
- Nikkei up;
- European markets down small;
- euro up;
- crude up $0.15 a barrel;
- gold up 5; and
- the 10-year U.S. note yields 2.53% (down a couple of basis points).
Worth mentioning:
- The market's winning streak continued on the slowest non-holiday day of the year.
- I slightly increased my modest short exposure by shorting SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) as well as more Schwab (SCHW), Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW).
- I initiated a short in the Market Vectors Retail ETF (RTH).
- Retail sales (headline and non-auto) were a disappointment relative to expectations. The Street continues to lower real GDP forecasts for second quarter 2013. Thus far, the market has ignored slowing growth.
- Brent crude is approaching $110 this morning.
- More signs of screwflation of the middle class as the real rate of inflation climbs. No wonder this has been a lopsided economic recovery in the U.S. with little trickle down to the average Joe.
- Ben Bernanke, the commodities inflator.
- Pricey poultry and costly Twinkies.
- I have long declared that observers are underestimating the impact of structural disequilibrium in the labor market in which corporations utilize part-time help as a more permanent feature.
- Pimco'smoves in the fixed-income arena.
- June Eurozone CPI was inline at +1.2%
In the press:
- MLB -- Tremendous performance (32 dingers overall and nine home runs in the final round) by Oakland Athletics' Yoenis Cespedes in last night's Home Run Derby.
- CNBC -- Wealthy get real estate breaks.
- The Wall Street Journal -- Law schools are cutting faculty; a jobless recovery, Mort Zuckerman op-ed.
- The New York Times -- Obama's hidden-hand approach.
- Financial Times -- Too much profit on Wall Street?
- Oilprice.com -- Contaminated water has been spilling into the ocean for two years at Fukushima.
Economic data and catalysts for today:
- Eurozone ZEW Survey for July (5:00 a.m. EDT, 36.3).
- Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos speaks on "The Spanish economy: Assessment and prospects."
- Greek 24-hourr strike.
- U.S. CPI (8:30 a.m. EDT, +0.3% estimated).
- U.S. IP for June (9:15 a.m. EDT, +0.3% estimated).
- Capacity untilization (77.7% estimated).
- U.S. NAHB housing market index for July 10:00 a.m. EDT (51 estimated).
- Fed's George speaks at 2:15 p.m. EDT.
- Earnings before the open -- Comerica (CMA), Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), Michael Page, Mosaic (MOS), Rio Tinto (RIO), Schwab (SCHW).
- Accor and L'Oréal post first-half sales after the European close.
- Earnings after the close -- CSX Corporation (CSX), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Yahoo! (YHOO).
- Bank of Japan minutes (from the June 10-June 11 meeting).