• Futures are soaring on the basis of a neutral statement.

"One last thing."

 - Lt. Columbo

Futures are ripping on the basis of a statement from Bernanke that the Fed is missing on both its inflation target (too low) and unemployment target (too high). As such, an accommodative policy is what is needed, he says.

While the stock futures are rising, the U.S. dollar is falling, and bonds are climbing in price -- again, his response is really no different from his responses in the past.  

Perhaps the Fed chairman doesn't want to make the same mistake he made at the last press conference, when interest rates rose dramatically.    

Again, the theater of the absurd.There is no change in Fed policy.

• Thanks for reading my diary today.

I'm heading out to Georgica Beach with my puppies. Enjoy your evening.

• How much to sell?

My mavens on the floor of the exchange see about $550 million to sell on the close.

Financials at $115 million and consumer discretionary at $100 million lead the sectors to sell.

Wells Fargo (WFC), AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have $15 million each to buy, and Sprint Nextel (S) has $15 million to sell.

• Here's what the firm had to say.

Goldman Sachs on the FOMC minutes release:

BOTTOM LINE: The June FOMC meeting minutes provided little new information on the most likely date of QE tapering or the likelihood of strengthening the forward guidance. Participants expressed a generally positive view of the cumulative change in labor market conditions since QE3 was announced.

• One should read the FOMC minutes as neutral and not dovish.

"Nothing to be done."

-- Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

Attempts to divine and parse every statement by the Fed today is absurd and futile.

The initial take from the June FOMC minutes appears to have been dovish and sanguine, apparently with some participants concluding that tapering will occur at year-end rather than in September.

The U.S. dollar weakened, bonds rose in price, and stocks lifted.

The specific phrase focused upon -- that is, "many on FOMC want more job gains before tapering" -- was not new.

And remember the FOMC meeting referred to in the minutes occurred before a strong labor report. (Note; "several on FOMC saw quantitative easing tapering warranted soon.")

Bottom line: One should read the FOMC minutes as neutral and not dovish.

The Fed remains data-dependent, as we all do as investors!

Color this a nonevent, and I expect the markets to reverse the current strength and slip back to pre-FOMC-minute levels.

• Here is his take.

Below is a quick take on the FOMC minutes from Morgan Stanley's Peter Boockvar:

After reading the text of the FOMC minutes from the June meeting, my head hurts because every possible base was covered and in the end, said nothing about exactly WHEN and only WHAT would trigger the potential WHEN on reducing asset purchases. My guess is that the initial kneejerk rally in the S&P's was because there was no WHEN but I'm hard pressed to believe that anyone learned anything new in these minutes.

Bottom line, "several members judged that a reduction in asset purchases would likely soon be warranted, in light of the cumulative decline in unemployment since the September meeting and ongoing increases in private payrolls, which had increased their confidence in the outlook for sustained improvement in labor market conditions." "Likely soon" is the now $64k question with many thinking it will be at the September meeting BUT data and forecast dependent IT WILL STILL BE and by how much we don't know yet if it were to occur. Always remember that this is an extremely dovish Fed, will continue to be so after Bernanke and why even with a taper, the size of the Fed balance sheet will be growing for at least another year.

• Both have increased by $3.

I am back in the saddle to observe that S&P 500 futures and the price of crude oil (per barrel) are both up $3.

• Run, don't walk to read Byron Wien's brilliant commentary on Asia.

Check out Blackstone's Byron Wien's brilliant commentary on Asia in Barron's.

• Run, don't walk, to read Naked Capitalism's latest post on housing.

Subscriber "Cali Girl" forwarded this post on Naked Capitalism, which is supportive of my housing thesis presented two mornings ago.

Thanks, Cali!

• I will be out of pocket for the FOMC minutes delivery.

I will be on a conference call for the next hour or so -- in discussion with company management of a new potential investment.

So, I will be out of pocket for the FOMC minutes delivery.

• Let's analyze the magnitude and timing of Altisource Residential's dividends.

I have received a number of questions regarding the magnitude and timing of Altisource Residential's (RESI) dividends.

My analysis concludes that Altisource Residential should achieve profitability by fourth quarter 2013 and in 2014 will likely earn about $1.35 a share and $1.50 a share in the following year.

Altisource Residential will pay out at least 90% of the aforementioned taxable income.

So, in 2015, the company will likely be paying out at least $1.35 a share in dividends.

• I far prefer Altisource Residential fundamentally over Chimera.

While I still think there is a chance that Annaly (NLY) acquires Chimera (CIM), in response to a number of emails, I far prefer Altisource Residential (RESI) fundamentally over Chimera.

I believe I had made this case for a while.

• I don't think so.

A lot of participants are talking aobut the eurozone's recovery.

In fact Carl Q. just interviewed two smart guys who are of the opinion.

I respectfully disagree -- not with the southern countries facing an economic death spiral.

• Goldman Sachs and Barclays lower their second-quarter 2013 real GDP forecasts.

Break in: After the wholesale inventory report, Goldman Sachs lowers its second-quarter 2013 real GDP tracking number to +1.3%. (That is -0.3% from previous forecast.)

Also, Barclays lowers its second-quarter 2013 real GDP forecast to only +0.4%!

• Crude is putting on another up leg, now at $105.85 a barrel (up $2.40 on the day).

• More negativity surrounds Green Mountain Coffee Roasters.

I am hearing that OTA is negative this morning on Red Mountain -- err, I mean Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).

• The May number fell unexpectedly by -0.5% compared to consensus of +0.3%.

Wholesale inventories make up about one quarter of all inventories.

The May number fell unexpectedly by -0.5% compared to consensus of +0.3%.

This follows a -0.1% drop in April (which was revised from +0.2%).

The release points to a consensus cut in second-quarter 2013 real GDP.

It now looks like second-quarter 2013 real GDP will be only about +1.6% to +1.8%

Though the inventory-to-sales ratio is down to the lowest level in fifteen months (1.18), I still see growth slowing -- a variant view from the consensus forecasts.

• Crude is making the day's highs on a larger-than-expected drawdown of oil inventories.

• The company continues to be one of my gauges for domestic economic growth.

Fastenal (FAST) continues to be one of my keys to gauging prospective domestic economic growth.

The company reported results this morning -- sales were punk.

• According to Peter Boockvar.

The rise in mortgage rates continues to have an impact on both refinancings and purchase applcations.

According to Peter Boockvar:

The MBA reported for the week ended Friday that refi's fell 4.4% w/o/w, down for a 4th straight week to the lowest since July 2011. Purchase apps fell 3.1%, lower for the 3rd week in the past 4 and to a 4 month low. The average 30 yr mortgage rate for the survey period rose another 10 bps to 4.68%, also last seen in July 2011. If this continues, it highlights the problem with the Fed's escape velocity hopes for the economy when the economy is so dependent on artificially low interest rates. Fed policy to its current extreme has built in speed bumps to any long lasting recovery.

Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW), the objects of my disaffection, are lower today.

• Run, don't walk, to read Paul Price's thoughtful analysis of Annaly.

Run, don't walk, to read Paul "The" Price's "Is Right" thoughtful analysis of Annaly (NLY), which highlights the challenges and headwinds to the mortgage REIT sector.

• The commodity is up over 13% in 11 days.

The price of crude oil is up 13.6% over the last 11 trading days.

• Mark Grant discusses how our investing world is growing more complicated and uncertain.

I have often written that investors and traders should hide from the glib and self-confident as the (investing) world is growing more complicated and uncertain.

This morning Sir Mark J. Grant at Southwest Securities discusses the same subject:

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser men so full of doubts."

-- Bertrand Russell

I thank Mr. Russell for confirming that I have gained some wisdom as I am always "so full of doubts." I do not accept the data provided by governments, any government, at face value and that tactic has kept me and my friends and clients out of serious trouble for many years now. I am always looking for who is lying, who is manufacturing numbers and who is distorting the truth.

Many of you are aware of the difficulties that lie between the sovereign nations and their banks. Many of you are unaware of the difficulties that lie between the sovereign nations and the Press. Europe hands out numbers, the Press is obliged to print them, the politicians are obliged to repeat them and investors lean upon this data as if it were the truth. Most of the time, in my experience, it is not.

Governments run the world and all of the people in their various nations. I suggest ordering a pizza and examining the ingredients.

The worst offenders are the EU, the ECB and the IMF with their financial projections. There has not been one accurate or close to accurate projection made by these three institutions in years and yet many investors continue to rely upon them and tout them as unadulterated truth. Every quarter will be better than the last, next quarter's unemployment will fall and next quarter's debt will always be less.

A fool's game, played by fools and yet the ruse continues. There are many believers in this church but I am not one of them.

It has been said that I am far too full of gloom and doom but that was never the case. I just proceed cautiously and diligently and I search for the truth amidst the rubble that I am handed. No one is spared. I examine what the United States tells me with as much rigor as I examine Europe and Asia. I would say that Asia is the worst of the lot as they concoct data to fulfill their own vision with Europe a very close second. The United States trails in the creation of rubbish but it is not that far behind.

Nowhere is safe.

There was a time, perhaps prior to World War I, when nations and their finances were disconnected. This has not been the case now for one hundred years. Think of it; one hundred years. Yet we consistently and constantly hear on TV that the rest of the world does not matter and that America will be just fine. Another hymn for the foolish and a song of ruination if you sing along.

Now China reported out their trade numbers today and they were horrid. Exports fell 3.1% from a year earlier, compared with a 1% increase in May, and far below the 10.4% average increase for the first half of 2013. Imports fell 0.7% which was down from a 0.3% decline in May and far below the 6.7% average increase in the first half. Now there are two things to note here. The first is that the real numbers are probably 25% worse that China reports. The second is that inaccuracy in the reporting will not change the reality of how bad the trade numbers really are as they impact the United States and Europe.

Europe is a financial mess. Asia is tanking with real growth probably in the 3.5-4% area and if you do not think this will take its toll on America then you are living in a dream world of your own making. Again and again and again I repeat---Just because they don't count the numbers or because they make-up numbers does not change the reality of what is not reported or counted.

For I am¿or I was¿one of those people who pride themselves in on their willpower, on their ability to make a decision and carry it through. This virtue, like most virtues, is ambiguity itself. People who believe that they are strong-willed and the masters of their destiny can only continue to believe this by becoming specialists in self-deception. Their decisions are not really decisions at all¿a real decision makes one humble, one knows that it is at the mercy of more things than can be named¿but elaborate systems of evasion, of illusion, designed to make themselves and the world appear to be what they and the world are not.

-- James Baldwin

• Let's take a peek on the overnight and early-morning price action in various asset classes.

A quiet overnight session:

• S&P futures -2;
• Nikkei -;
• European markets -;
• euro +;
• crude +$1.10;
• gold +$6; and
• the 10-year U.S. note yields 2.64%.

I remain slightly net short.

If you had told me that crude would be closing in on $105 a barrel ($104.80 this a.m.) and the 10-year U.S. note yield would still be elevated, I would have told you that the market would have been vulnerable over the last week. It was not; it has rallied vibrantly. In fact, we have seen a 6% rally from the lows, and it has been straight up.

Normally, the aforementioned conditions would have had me considering "the big short." I have not, as I am respectful of the market's momentum.

Worth mentioning:

• Yesterday's market advance seemed technically inspired. Credit closed tighter, and Treasuries rallied a bit. The JOLTS data were in line. But the ever-pessimistic Zero Hedge is skeptical.
• More screwing with data -- this time, Japan changes its measurement of inflation. 
• The IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast but by no more than was expected.
• The 2:00 p.m. EDT release of the FOMC minutes is today's focal point. What new news can be expected? Firstly, how united is the FOMC around the September tapering date? Secondly, how much will be cut? And, thirdly, will Treasuries or mortgage securities be cut back? (Note: Presently, an equal amount of each is being purchased.)
• Growth slowing? China posts a surprisingly sharp drop in exports. Chinese exports declined 3.1% in June (the largest drop in four years and the first negative monthly print since January 2012). A gain of 3.7% was expected. Imports dropped by 0.7%; a gain of 6.0% was forecast. This follows a raft of weak economic data for the region in April and May.
• The Nikkei opened lower last night, rallied strong and then sold off on the China trade data.
• Italian stocks and bonds were hit by the S&P downgrade.
• JPMorgan research warns about the eurozone economy's outlook this morning in its product.
• The SEC liberalizes hedge fund advertising. 
• In politics and media, Eliot Spitzer will appear on CNBC's "Squawk Box" at 8:30 a.m. EDT this morning. Should be interesting television.
• In case you missed it, here's my appearance on CNBC.com's "Futures Now" from yesterday.
• The lynx-eyed Mario Gabelli presented some thoughtful observations and actionable ideas on "Fast Money Halftime Report" yesterday.
• A battle of wills between Fannie and Freddie and their investors has developed.
• The Main Event of the World Series of Poker has concluded its first round in Las Vegas. Mark Kroon is leading, but my friend/buddy/pal Greenlight's David Einhorn has been eliminated. Follow the action here.

In the press:

• Regulators require banks to pony up more capital.
• Zero Hedge and John Mauldin's "Frontline Thoughts" review the Gave boys' (Louis and Charles) "Bad Omens," which incorporates many of my concerns that you have read in my diary this year. It is a good piece, and I'll share with you Zero Hedge's synopsis:
  
  * China, the single biggest contributor to global growth over the past decade, slowing markedly.
  
  * World trade now flirting with recession.
  
  * OECD industrial production in negative territory YoY.
  
  * Southern Europe showing renewed signs of political tensions (i.e.: Portugal, Greece, Italy...) as unemployment continues its relentless march higher and tax receipts continue to collapse.
  
  * Short-term interest rates almost everywhere around the world that are unable to go any lower.
  
  * Valuations on most equity markets that are nowhere near distressed (except perhaps for the BRICS?).
  
  * A World MSCI that has now just dipped below its six month moving average.
  
  * A diffusion index of global equity markets that is flashing dark amber.
  
  * Margins in the US at record highs and likely to come under pressure, if only because of the rising dollar (most of the U.S. margin expansion of the past decade has occurred thanks to foreign earnings¿earnings that may now be challenging to sustain in the face of a weaker global trade growth and a stronger dollar).
  
  Lackluster growth? Falling margins (outside of Japan)? Rising real rates? Unappealing valuations (outside of the BRICS)?... Perhaps these make up the wall of worry that global equities will climb successfully. After all, if the British and Irish Lions can win a rugby series in the Southern hemisphere, while a Scotsman wins Wimbledon, then nothing is impossible. Though perhaps the simpler explanation to the above growing list of bad omens was formulated by Claudius who said that "when sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".
• Terrific Wall Street Journalarticle on Las Vegas foreclosures, a subject I recently broached in my housing article.
• Tough times for Barnes & Noble (BKS). 
• The coming Greek writeoff. 
• Wilbur Ross does Spain.
• The myth of offshore cash (talking my book!).
• How to avoid the next MF Global.
• Bin Laden on the run.

Today's important economic , data and earnings releases:

• German CPI for June.
• EU Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier will present his proposal for a single euro-area authority to handle failing banks.
• Fed releases minutes from the June 18-19 meeting.
• Bernanke speaks in Boston (after close).
• Brazil rate decision.
• U.S.-China strategic and economic dialogue to be held July 10-July 11, 2013, in Washington, D.C.
• Earnings before the open -- Fastenal (FAST), Family Dollar (FDO), Msc Industries Direct (MSM).
• Earnings after the close: Yum! Brands (YUM).
• Chevron (CVX) gives preliminary second-quarter earnings update after the close.
• Gartner and IDC publish their second-quarter PC sales forecasts after the close.
• SEMICON West in San Francisco (July 9-July 11).