DAILY DIARY
Update on Northwest Bancshares
- This post corrects information about its dividend.
Correction: Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) is ex dividend at $0.12/share regular dividend and a $0.12/share special dividend, for a total of $0.24/share today.
In a Meeting
- Thanks so much for reading my diary and enjoy your evening.
I have a meeting after the close.
Thanks so much for reading my diary and enjoy your evening.
Earnings on Deck
- A bunch of old favorites (long and short) are reporting tonight.
Below is a list of a bunch of old favorites (long and short) reporting tonight.
Earnings of Interest
Source: Bloomberg
View Chart »View in New Window »
I no longer own any of the names.
Market on Close Imbalances
- How much to buy?
My mavens on the floor see $1.3 billion to buy on the close.
All sectors are to buy, with fianncials at $275 million and concumer discretinary, health care and industrials at $175 million each.
Indiividual buys are JPMorgan Chase (JPM) at $30 million and Bank of America (BAC) and IBM (IBM) both at $25 million. Sells are in ExxonMobil (XOM, $60 million), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, $12.5 milliion) and United Technologies (UTX, $10 million).
Northwest Bancshares Goes Ex-Divvy
- By $0.12 a share regular, plus $0.12 special dividend.
Correction: This post corrects an earlier post that did not include the special dividend. We regret the error.
I wanted to mention that Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) is ex-dividend by $0.12 a share today and a $0.12/share special dividend, for a total of $0.24/share today.
One Question
- In 27 parts!
I have only one question for Warren Buffett -- in 27 part!
Discuss.
Sell Sell Sell
- Buyout execs Leon Black, Scott Sperling and Jonathan Sokoloff are crossing over to the dark side.
Check out this sell-now message ("Black's Apollo 'Selling Everything' After Prices Have Risen") from legendary buyout kingpin Apollo Management's Leon Black (in a Bloomberg interview of a presentation he made at the Milken conference), who says that:
[P]rices for traditional buyouts have risen so much that it's a good time to sell. We think it's a fabulous environment to be selling.... We're selling everything that's not nailed down, and if we're not selling, we're refinancing.... U.S. equity markets have more than doubled from their 2009 lows, helping push up average prices for leveraged buyouts to nine times earnings.
Black's comments were echoed by buyout executives at the Milken conference, including Scott Sperling, co-president of Thomas H. Lee Partners, and Jonathan Sokoloff, managing partner at Leonard Green & Partners.
"It has become more difficult to find transactions priced at levels we'd like."
-- Scott Sperling
"We're having trouble deploying capital at these price levels. It's time to take a pause."
-- Jonathan Sokoloff
So Many Questions
- I have 21 questions for the Oracle of Omaha that I have to reduce to six by Saturday's meeting.
I will be asking six questions of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett on Saturday.
Thus far, I have 21 questions that I have to reduce in the day ahead.
Omaha here I come!
Investors Bond With Apple (Part Deux)
- The strong reception is indicative of a desperate search for yield.
The reception of Apple's (AAPL) six separate bond offerings is strong, indicative of a desperate search for yield and a general willingness on the part of fixed-income buyers to expand the duration of their investment horizons.
Danaher Recovers a Bit
- And I am back shorting the name.
Danaher (DHR) has risen a few dollars from its low established after some poor guidance.
I am back shorting the name above $61 now.
Only in America!
- Hedge funds will lend to a company in order for that company to pay the hedge fund back in dividends or buy their shares!
Only in America do hedge funds lend to a company -- in this case, Apple (AAPL) -- in order for that company to pay the hedge funds back in dividends or buy their shares!
Billionaire's Buy Boosts Apple
- According to Business Insider, Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov bought $100 million worth of Apple.
Speaking ofApple (AAPL), Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's $100 million buy is also helping the shares (hat tip Business Insider!).
Investors Bond With Apple
- Shares are likely up due to the company's bond offerings.
Apple's (AAPL) shares have been rising over the last two days, in part, based on a good reception to the company's six bond offerings.
Below are my guesses for the spread to Treasuries:
- three-year, +30 basis points;
- three-year floating-rate notes, +15 basis points;
- five-year, +45 basis points;
- five-year floating-rate notes, +35 basis points;
- 10-year, +85 basis points; and
- 30-year, +110 basis points.
Euro Spikes
- Anyone know why?
The euro just spiked.
It could be because of the weak U.S. economic data.
Anyone else have input on the currency move?
Chicago PMI Illustrated
- The great disconnect between fundamentals and stock prices continues.
The Chicago PMI comes in at 49, well below the expectation of 52.5.
Below is a chart that shows a longer-term perspective on this economic series.
Chicago PMI
Source: Bloomberg
View Chart »View in New Window »
The great disconnect between fundamentals and stock prices continues.
From the Street of Dreams
- Microsoft is downgraded at Standpoint.
Break in: Standpoint cuts Microsoft (MSFT) now to Neutral.
Warren and Me
- He's the greatest investor of all time, and I most certainly am not. But we do have some things in common.
Yesterday, I outlined how my pilgrimage to Omaha got started, what my initial reaction was to Buffett's invite, how unusual his invitation was, how I conducted my research, the challenge of the research process, what I expect to achieve in my questions, how I plan to conduct myself at the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B) annual shareholders meeting and I finally gave some brief impressions I had of Warren Buffett based on my research over the past six weeks months.
Today, I shift to a different subject. I want to write about some of the similarities between Warren Buffett and myself. In doing my research, I was surprised how many things we have in common, though it certainly isn't our net worths!
Prostate cancer: Both Warren Buffett and I were diagnosed with cancer in 2012. I had my prostate removed in a robotic-assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy in December 2012. (I am now cancer-free.) Warren Buffett underwent successful radiation treatment last year.
Wharton School: We both attended Wharton. After graduating from the Woodrow Wilson High School in Omaha in 1947, Warren Buffett entered the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He studied at Wharton for two years, and in 1950, he transferred to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln where he graduated with a Bachelor of Science in business administration. I attended Wharton in 1970 and received my MBA in finance in 1972.
Horse tip sheet: We both published and sold a horse tip sheet. Handicapping horses combined two traits that Warren Buffett was good at, collecting information and mathematics. With his friend, Bob "Russ" Russell, Warren hawked a tip sheet, Stable-Boy Selections, at Ak-Sar-Ben racetack. At $0.25 apiece, his tip sheet undercut the "Blue Sheet," a staple at racetracks. I hawked a tip sheet, "Wharton's Picks," an independent study project in which I regressed variables in a computer and delivered the output in a computer-generated printout, for the same $0.25 cents at Liberty Bell Park racetrack, competing against "Lawton" and the "Orange Sheet," while attending business school.
"Stoopers": A "stooper" is someone who collects thrown-away betting tickets from the floor of a racetrack. Often bettors make mistakes, either by throwing out valuable tickets that haven't been cashed or when they discard tickets from disputed races whose order of finish is often changed. Warren, again with "Russ," was a stooper at Ak-Sar-Ben racetrack. I was a stooper at harness racetracks all around the country. (I would later breed, own and drive harness horses with some success.)
Early interest in the stock market: At the age of 12, Warren Buffett started buying stocks -- with his sister Doris as a partner, he purchased three shares of Cities Service preferred stock for about $38 a share. The stock tanked to $27 a share, and Doris reminded him every day that they were losing money. When it recovered to $40 a share, he sold, netting a $5 profit. Cities Service eventually soared to $202 a share, teaching Buffett several important investing lessons -- namely, don't fixate on your cost basis, be patient in your investments and not to take responsibility for anyone else's money unless you're was sure you'll succeed. My Grandma Koufax taught me the stock market when I was 15 years old. I spent my vacations as a teenager "watching the tape" in a small brokerage firm in Rockville Centre, Long Island. I bought my first stock, Teledyne, in 1967. I did better on my Teledyne investment than Warren Buffett did with Cities Service. But, well, he did better subsequently!
Northwestern Wildcats: Warren Buffett's wife Susan and his sister Bertie both went to Northwestern University. My son recently received an MFA in playwriting from Northwestern.
Baseball: Warren Buffett loves baseball -- it is likely his favorite sport. He is good friends with Omaha-born St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Bob Gibson and his wife Charlene. Bob Gibson entered the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1981. I love baseball. My cousin is Sandy Koufax -- don't forget my Grandma Koufax! -- and I count as good friends Susan and Jim Palmer, former Baltimore Orioles pitcher and Hall of Famer (1990).
Palm Beach: Warren Buffett experienced the snobbiness of Palm Beach, Florida, in 1970, when, at an excursion with his investment minions, he stayed at the Colony Hotel, which he called "a friendly family hotel that is friendly if you were the Kennedy family." I spent many nights at Palm Beach's Colony Hotel when I attended board of directors meetings at both DMG -- now named Danaher (DHR) -- and for the Home Federal Bank of Palm Beach located on South County Road in Palm Beach. I currently reside in Palm Beach.
George McGovern and Allard Lowenstein: Warren Buffett supported George McGovern for President in 1972. Buffett also contributed to liberal Democrat Allard Lowenstein's Congressional campaign. I, too, supported McGovern. And I once babysat for Lowenstein's children -- he was a Long Island congressman (in the fifth district in Nassau county).
Penicillin allergy: We are both allergic to penicillin. (Warren Buffett had a terrible allergy incident in 1970.)
Paperboys: We both delivered newspapers as youths -- he in Omaha, Nebraska, and I on Long Island, New York (The Long Island Press and Newsday).
Train sets: We both had train sets in our homes.
Harmonie Club: Warren Buffett's pal, Walter Schloss's grandfather was a member of Harmonie Club of New York City. I joined Harmonie in 1982, and I remain a member.
Television appearances: Warren Buffett has appeared on "The Office" (2011) and on "All My Children" (1992 and 2008). As I recently wrote, I appeared on the quiz show "Tic-Tac-Dough" when I was in fourth grade.
Nicknames: Warren Buffett has been known, alternatively, as "The Wizard of Omaha", "The Oracle of Omaha" and the "Sage of Omaha." Again, in fourth grade, I was known as "The Professor."
*Note: I want to emphasize that this exercise was for fun. In no way do I want to imply that I am comparable to Warren Buffett, the greatest investor of all time.
Over There
- Weak data continue to pour in from Europe and Asia.
Overnight economic data in Europe and Asia were weak.
South Korea's industrial production fell by nearly 3% against an estimate of less than a 1% drop.
Taiwan's economic growth in first-quarter 2013 faltered -- at +1.54% (year over year), which was about half the consensus expectations of +3.10%.
Data in Japan was mixed as March industrial production rose less than expected but housing starts and household spending beat. The jobless rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.1%. The April manufacturing PMI rose to a 13-month high.
Europe's economic data were also weak.
Germany's number of unemployed rose by 4,000. March retail sales fell by -0.3%, but there was a big revision downwards in February's data (-0.6% vs. initial report of +0.4%).
EU unemployment rose slightly to 12.1% from 12% -- in line with expectations.
The CPI year-over-year increase was +1.3% compared to consenuss of +1.6% (the lowest since February 2010).
Today's U.S. data includes the Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and the Case-Shiller home price index.
All this leads to the expectation that the ECB will cut rates on Thursday.
I believe, an all-in move by the European central bankers could mark a potential for a sell on the news.
The global economic soft patch continues, though risk markets remain unaffected by this and bolstered by global monetary policy and lack of a competitive alternative return in fixed income.
I don't think this disconnect can go on much longer, and I still expect a drawn-out S&P 500 consolidation.
It is clear that the globe is experiencing an economic soft patch. Goldman Sachs' April index, which measures the assessment of business conditions by its analysts, declined to 42.7 from 49.2 -- that is the poorest reading since late last year. In terms of components, new orders and employment were weak. This data follow disappointing regional manufacturing indices thus far in the month.
With Europe in the soup, and Asia decelerating, he disconnect between share prices and fundamentals continues to widen. (Citigroups's economic surprise index for the G-10 countries started the year at +14, and it is now down to -34.)
Early-Morning Market Look
- Let's take a peek at overnight and early-morning markets.
Long game, uneventful night for markets:
- S&P futures -2;
- European markets mixed;
- euro -;
- crude flat;
- gold +5; and
- 10-year yields 1.66%.
Below is a look at today's economic calendar.