• Here it is.

Below is a list of after-hours earnings today along with estimates.

• My research meetings went longer than I expected.

Sorry to all.

My research meetings went longer than I expected.

I visited with two different companies.

More to come.

• Lately, to me, it doesn't appear to reflect the swings the way I see them.

Is the VIX a true measure of volatility in the market?

Lately, to me, it doesn't appear to reflect the swings the way I see them.

SPY vs. VIX

Source: Bloomberg

View Chart »View in New Window »

• I am back up to 30% net short now.

• Heads up: I will be out from 12:00 p.m. EDT to 2:00 p.m. EDT and then from 4:00 p.m. EDT to 5:00 p.m. EDT this afternoon at meetings.

• Check out this clip of Stephen Colbert.

Run, don't freakin' walk, to watch Stephen Colbert on scientific rigor and future predictions.

• I am shorting shares of IWM at $92.25.

I am reshorting iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) at $92.25.

• Ocwen, Altisource Portfolio Solutions, and Altisource Asset Management have some wind in their sails.

The Ocwen complex got a bid in the last few days.

• Namely, Northwest Bancshares and Ford.

Bidding for Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) at $12.40 and Ford (F) at $13.10 (raising my buy level).

• The weak report underscores the disconnect between domestic economic data and the U.S. stock market.

Durable goods came in weaker than expected this morning, down -5.7% (-3% was consensus) and down -1.4% ex-transportation vs. up +0.5% estimates. February was revised sharply lower (-4.8% compared to -2.7%). The ex transports is the eighth month in the last 10 months with negative year-over-year trends.

Durable goods orders unexpectedly dropped by -0.4% (estimate was +0.5%) and nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, was +0.2% (+0.3% estimate). Core shipments were +0.3%, or 0.5% less than forecast.

This data point continues the trend and evidence of slowing domestic and global economic growth. (The Citigroup Surprise Index is now below zero!)

As I wrote last Monday, there is now a meaningful disconnect between the S&P 500's share price and economic/profits results and future expectations.

U.S. corporations lack visibility and thus lack confidence in hirings and capital expenditures. Europe is in a deepening recession, Asia is slowing down, and the U.S. economy is weakening under continued policy uncertainty.

Indeed, on many of the metrics that I look at, the disconnect is among the largest in the last few years.

Reward vs. risk is unfavorable now.

While central bankers' aggressive easing has buoyed equities (in the face of problematic fundamentals) the markets might soon question the efficacy of loose monetary policy on the world's real economies.

The U.S. stock market's overvaluation may be rivaled only by the U.S. bond market's overvaluation.

Many have observed the coupling of bonds and stocks over the past few years (rising stock prices correlate with rising bond prices and lower yields) and questioned whether it is possible that bond prices will drop and yields will rise as stocks drop/correct. (I expect it is possible.)

As I demonstrated in my Value Investing Congress presentation in Omaha last year, many periods in history are accompanied by lower equity and lower bond prices.

• I am expanding my SPY short.

I remain concerned about global and domestic economic and profit growth.

Given Procter & Gamble's (PG) guidance (and its market leadership role) and the reports from a number of other companies, I am expanding my short position in premarket trading via SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) shorts.

"Hello, Darkness, my old friend."

• Here is what the analyst community is up to this morning.

Below are recent analysts' actions:

• Apple (AAPL) is downgraded to Neutral at BMO, and its price target is reduced from $575 to $480 at Deutsche Bank and lowered to $475 at CLSA.
• AT&T (T) is downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and downgraded to Neutrral at Citigroup.
• eBay (EBAY) is upgraded at Wells Fargo.
• Amgen (AMGN) is downgraded to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

• Here it is.

Below is today's calendar of economic releases.

• Here is the tale of Apple since the earnings release.

Below is a chart of Apple's (AAPL) share price movement since the company's earnings release.

Apple (AAPL)

Source: Bloomberg

View Chart »View in New Window »

• The company did, however, lower guidance.

As I suggested in yesterday's opener, the key to the overall direction of the U.S. stock market is no longer Apple (AAPL), it is the new "fab five": Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Clorox (CLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), General Mills (GIS) and Coca-Cola (KO).

Apropos, Procter beats and guides lower for the next quarter.

• Forward guidance was horrible, and product introduction news was disappointing.

As I suggested late yesterday, Apple's (AAPL) shares have lost all of the $27 gain in after-hours trading.

Holders are fortunate that the company announced a more aggressive capital-allocation strategy ($50 billion-plus buyback) as forward guidance was horrible and product introduction news was disappointing.

Apple remains a trading sardine not an eating sardine.

As long as Apple is losing the battle for the high-end customer and facing other fundamental challenges (including but not exclusively margin deterioriation), I see little more than a 3% dividend yield that will appeal to long-term investors in this name.

• Let's take a peek at the markets.

Despite Apple's (AAPL) disappointing guidance -- and other doozies, Panera Bread (PNRA), Amgen (AMGN) and so on -- the market, similar to the Eveready battery, keeps going and going:

• S&P futures +4;
• European markets +;
• euro +;
• crude +0.6;
• gold +15; and
• the yield on the 10-year U.S. note stands at 1.72%.

There was little in the way of overnight news.

I start the day at about 20% net short (before my large bond short).