• How much to buy?

My mavens on the floor of the exchange see $625 million to buy on the close.

In terms of sectors, buy interest is in industrials for $180 million, consumer discretionary for $80 million and energy for $75 million.

Buys are in Chevron (CVX), Dow Chemical (DOW) and General Electric (GE) -- all for about $25 million.

Sells are in Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Simon Property (SPG) -- all for about $20 million.

• Not interested in bottom fishing here.

James Bond (Sean Connery): Do you expect me to talk?

Goldfinger (Gert Fröbe): No, Mr. Bond I expect you to die!

-- Goldfinger

So much time, so much gold -- more "Futures Now" on gold.

After being up $40 an ounce earlier today, gold is now only up $3 an ounce.

Not interested in bottom fishing here.

• I don't see this as a market positive.

Consumer nondurables are officially in the lead today -- witness Procter & Gamble (PG), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Clorox (CLX), PepsiCo (PEP) and the like.

As I wrote earlier, I don't see this as a market positive.

• It has reversed nearly all its climb during the day in the last 30 minutes. 

Despite Peter Schiff's protestations, gold can't seem to keep a bid.

It has reversed nearly all its climb during the day in the last 30 minutes.

• Here's what happened the last time gold took a one-day fall like this.

As an addendum to the Golden Age data, here is what happened the last time gold fell by more than 13% in one day -- on Jan. 25, 1980.

Jan. 25, 1980: Gold closed at $635 per ounce. 

One week later: $683.30 (up 7.61%)

Two weeks later: $694.50 (up 9.37%)

Four weeks later: $648.90 (up 2.19%)

Three months later: $538.20 (down 15.24%)

• Here's a quick recap of my trades today.

On Tuesday I added to my Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) long. I also shorted SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Henry Schein (HSIC), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Danaher (DHR).

• Shares are climbing on a positive analyst note.

Break in!

MKM Parners initiated Netflix (NFLX) with a Buy rating with a price target of $250. Shares are up a quick few bucks on the news.

• I've been building the position over the past hour.

I have been scaling into my SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) short over the past hour (to replace yesterday's after-hours cover). My cost basis is around $157.03.

• The 'Futures Now' debate is online.

Here are the links to my debate on gold with Peter Schiff on CNBC's "Futures Now": part one, part two, and part three.

• Here it is.

Here is list of expected earnings releases over the next week for stocks with which I am involved, both on the long and the short side.

Earnings Calendar

Source: Bloomberg

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• My 'Futures Now' debate just aired.

Had a fantastic debate with Peter Schiff with Mandy on CNBC's "Futures Now." I will be posting the video shortly.

I think you will all enjoy it.

• Here is some great historic data from BTIG.

Below is some great historic market data on gold as it relates to the commodity itself, the S&P 500 and the VIX from my friends at BTIG.

Gold

2nd biggest single-day drop since 1975. Here is how gold reacts looking forward after all drops of at least 5%. Surprisingly, the stats say do NOT expect a bounce and expect negative returns more often than not going out at least a month

Here's how the market (SPX) has performed after such drops in gold compared to normal SPX moves. The returns outperform by a greater percent near term but revert to the norm as time elapses.

VIX

Yesterday was the 5th biggest single-day up move in the VIX since its 1990 creation. While the tape tends to outperform over the next week or so, the returns grossly underperform as we go out a little further. This makes sense as the tape bounces after the drastic move lower that day, but the candle and volume eventually sees follow through

• All S&P sectors are in the green today, but consumer staples are especially outperforming.

The proximate timing reason I ventured back into my SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) short -- that is, besides being overall bearish on the intermediate-term market outlook --  is today's leadership, which is back in the defensive consumer nondurable/staples names.

This is not the leadership that the bulls need/want.

Below is a pie chart that explains the relative performance today in the S&P index by sector.

S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

Source: Bloomberg

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• SocGen puts DB on Hold.

Break in: SocGen takes Deutsche Bank (DB) to a Hold now.

• Again.

I am back shorting SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at $156.90 on a scale.

I plan to replace what I covered in after-hours yesterday.

• Here is a graphic representation.

Below is a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) price charts over the last seven days, proving, once again, that Mr. Market has no memory from day to day.

SPY -- Seven-Day

Source: Bloomberg

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SPY is now back to the point just prior to the news of the explosions in Boston.

SPY -- Since Yesterday

Source: Bloomberg

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• I will be on CNBC's 'Futures Now' at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

I will be on CNBC's "Futures Now," talking gold with Princess Jackie D and Peter Schiff at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Be there or be square.

• Stocks are down in Europe.

European stocks are now back in the red.

• Run, don't walk, to see Sam Zell's gift.

Every year the iconic entrepreneur Sam Zell sends out a Holiday/New Year present to his friends.

Each present holds an economic message packaged in a very unique form (as you will soon see!).

I am proud to have been the recipient of Sam's largesse over the last six years.

Sam has outdone himself with this year's "quantitative easing" present.

And here, for your viewing pleasure, is this year's gift! (Please note that this link will expire on 4/23/13.)

In addition, here is a site that includes Sam's previous years' presents (requires username and password), and here is a video of his 2007 "Credit Confusion" music box gift.

• Monitise is my second buy of the day. 

My second buy of the day is Monitise (MONI.L) at 35 pence on the London Stock Exchange.

• Here is a list of names of which I am short.

My current individual short names are American Express (AXP), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Bridgepoint Education (BPI), Danaher (DHR), FedEx (FDX), Groupon (GRPN), Nationstar (NSM) and Henry Schein (HSIC).

• Err on the side of conservatism. 

Suffice to say, I would counsel everyone to maintain below-average positions (long and short) in a market backdrop that is difficult (and volatile) for both professionals and home gamers.

Err on the side of conservatism.

• So far, my only buy today is Northwest Bancshares.

My only buy today, thus far, is Northwest Bancshares (NWBI).

Like Chauncey Gardiner, I am watching.

• It serves as a tax cut for the consumer, which provides support to corporate profit margins and stimulates growth.

Yesterday I outlined the bearish case for equities in my opening missive. I extracted multiple concerns into one big one:

If we distill my multiple concerns into one concern, it is the more difficult earnings backdrop that should become increasingly apparent to market participants in the near term. Given that the growth in nominal U.S. GDP is trending at under 4%, corporations have little in the way of pricing power. And with profit margins at all-time highs and nearly 70% above the mean levels achieved in the last seven decades, earnings forecasts are threatened based on slowing top-line growth and a likely mean reversion in margins.

Later in the day I also highlighted four important divergences (oil prices, gold prices, the EUR/USD cross and the 10-year yield) with the S&P 500 that suggested that the U.S. stock market would likely catch up with the other declines.

The drop of some of those four variables is likely a function of a downward recalibration of global growth expectations over the past month.

There is, however, a potential silver lining to lower oil and other commodities prices that I wanted to examine this morning. (Note: Yesterday, the two most commonly followed commodity price indices dropped by over 2.5%, led by a 7-8 standard deviation drop in precious and base metal prices.)

To date, as Jim "El Capitan" Cramer has recently pointed out, the broad decline in commodities (e.g., oil prices) has created a bubble in safety -- namely, in stocks such as Procter & Gamble (PG), PepsiCo (PEP), Clorox (CLX), Coca-Cola (KO), Colgate-Palmolive (CL). I own several of these bubblicious defensive consumer staples stocks that have, owing to a near parabolic share price move, become offensive in certain ways.

As of the end of last week, more than 70 consumer stocks made 52-week highs on the NYSE. I have tracked data on this subject personally for over 20 years, and this is a very strong number, easily in the 98th percentile of over 1,000 observations. This is a very broad market move in the defensive sector despite all the angst generated by the press, the E.U., North Korea and Washington, D.C. I sense something of significance may be happening that is not being watched closely. If I am right, a new up-leg in economic growth is possible later in the year, which could partially deflect my fears of a recession (expressed in yesterday's opener).

My background is in finance and economics.

The dismal science has laws, but they get broken. The first you learn is the law of supply and demand. Since 1973, it has not functioned well in oil markets. Another law is that, in the fullness of time, cartels eventually do not work. That law also has not functioned well, as OPEC has survived over several generations.

As you read this, keep in mind that I am not an oil economist (nor am I even a decent investor in oil-related equities). As a sometime consumer specialist, however, I have had to observe oil prices and understand their impact on consumer behavior.

Nothing impacts consumer spending faster than change in price at the gas pump.

In 1973, OPEC announced its oil embargo, and the price of crude tripled. For almost 40 years, oil prices have included an oligopoly rent from OPEC (also called political uncertainty), which has trumped the law of supply and demand.

The cartel's influence may now be finally breaking down.

Today, with WTI down to $88 a barrel, gas prices are below year-ago levels, serving to provide the consumer with a tax cut. Chinese demand is ebbing, perhaps due to concern about horrendous pollution. Cars are growing more fuel-efficient. Plus, there are other, larger factors at work:

• New supply is developing due to the fracking boom that has increased supply of U.S. crude as well as natural gas. The collapse in price of tankers ($170,000 a day at peak to $7,000 a day now) confirms that less oil is being transported globally.
• Several producers of oil are now in a mode of having to produce. This includes Russia, Saudi Arabia (which must support a growing welfare state for its youth), Iran (where a lot of its oil is embargoed), Iraq (which needs cash) and Venezuela (which also needs cash). Indeed, it is hard to find a member of OPEC that is not motivated to produce.
• Commodity investors have had a boom in the last 15 years. That may be ending. Gold is in a bear market. Gold investors may be getting margin calls forcing them to liquidate other commodity pools (which have huge weightings to oil). This creates a vicious cycle, forcing oil and other commodities down. (In just the past two weeks, commodity indices used at The Economist are down by over 7%. That may not seem like a lot unless you have 5x margin, which you can in some of these contracts.)

Oil is still far above the point of zero marginal production price. The price of crude might have a lot further to go, and, in the short run, prices can go below the cost of production.

The law of supply and demand may start to apply to oil, and OPEC may be all over. Both, at least in the intermediate term, would be bullish for the U.S. economy -- the consumer sector will be delivered with a tax cut and corporations' profit margins could be buoyed. It could also be seen as a negative for the bond markets as lower commodities revive economic growth.

There is a silver lining.

• Here it is.

We have a heavy economic calendar ahead of us today.

Economic Calendar

Source: Bloomberg

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• Let's take a peek at the overnight and early-morning markets.

Before today's opener, let's take a good look at the overnight and morning markets -- there is stability overnight:

• S&P futures +7;
• European markets down;
• euro down;
• crude -0.30;
• gold +26 (when I woke up in the middle of the night, it was -$36!); and
• 10-year yields at 1.72%.

Yesterday afternoon was a tough time to discuss markets, as the act of terrorism in Boston opened up old wounds and emotions that were fomented back on Sept. 11, 2001.

Sad memories of Bill "Budman" Meehan, Timmy and of course my best pal, Brown Bear. Ironically, I had lunch with Chuck Zion's parents, Rabbi Martin and Jane Zion, on Sunday, and, a week ago Saturday, we had dinner.

But discuss we must.

As I wrote late yesterday, I took off my entire SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) short. I added to my bond short (as I wrote I would) at or under a 1.70% yield.

I will be on ABC's "Good Morning America" between 7:00 a.m. EDT and 8:00 a.m. EDT, talking about the markets this morning.

Next up -- the silver lining of the recent commodities price decline.