• At the risk of sounding even more negative than I am ...

After the close, IDC released its estimate of 1Q 2013 PC industry shipments. (This is symptomatic of my real economy concerns written about today.) 

I believe the report is actionable and I have shorted QQQs ($69.95) in after-market trading, as Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) will likely sell off (particularly in light of the strength in the group over the last week).

A decline of 13.9% units is now expected by IDC, much worse than the previous estimate of a 7.7% drop. This is the worst quarterly performance since 1994 when IDC began tracking the data.(Gartner's first-quarter shipment data painted the same story).

The report was especially negative towards Microsoft ("Windows 8 not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market".)

• Bed Bath slips, and Fortinet sees dramatic selling.

Break in!

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) meets estimates but lowers guidance. Shares are falling.

Fortinet (FTNT) preannounces a miss on the top and bottom lines (sales of $135 million, compared with $140.5 million estimated, and earnings per share of $0.10, compared with $0.12 estimated). A one-million-plus share trade occurred in the hole at the close, and the shares are now down $3. This seems like a dramatic response relative to expectations. (I am picking on the long side under $19 a share.)

• Painful day, but my short bond position cushioned the blow.

For the shorts (like myself) it is high anxiety time full of hope (and promise?) 

Adding insult to injury (and astonishingly, at least to me), lynx-eyed David Rosenberg just turned bullish on CNBC at all-time highs -- go figure.

Painful day for me and the shorts, though my short bond position helped the cause and cushioned the blow.

I reiterated my negative outlook on the U.S. stock market today 

Thanks for reading my Diary, and enjoy the evening.

You know where I will be ... on the cold linoleum floor with some cheap tequilla.

• How much to sell?

My mavens on the floor of the NYSE see a modest $50 million to sell on the close, with little in the way of individual stock or sector activity.

• My guess is that the 10-year yield breaches the 1.835% resistance over the near term.

In my totally transparent way of accentuating the positive (and in an attempt to maintain my sanity!), I wanted to mention that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is at the day's high (10-year yield is 1.80%).

My guess is that the 10-year yield breaches the 1.835% resistance over the near term.

Below is the past nine days' intraday yield on the 10-year U.S. note, including today.

• First Solar's price target gets a raise at Citi.

Break in: Citigroup raises First Solar (FSLR) price target to $50 now.

• Palm Beach Paul and Boca Biff are swinging by after the close.

Man oh man, as if i wasn't having a terrible day already, guess who telephoned to tell me they are coming by my office after the close.

You got it: the two cousins -- Palm Beach Paul and Boca Biff.

Stay tuned.

• Are equities and bonds moving on the artificiality of global easing, or is it optimism for an improved real economy?

With the U.S. stock market now approaching ludicrous speed, the U.S. bond market continues to weaken in price (and move higher in yield).

The 10-year note auction was uneventful with a yield of 1.795%, in line with the when-issued market.

The bid-to-cover at 2.79 was below the 12-month average of 2.96. Direct and indirect buyers took a combined 66.5% above the previous year's average of 63%.

For both stocks and bonds, it is awfully hard to know (with certainty) if the contribution on the markets comes from the artificiality of global easing or optimism based on the prospects for an improved real economy.

As you all know, it is my view that the fantasy of monetary easing is having little positive impact on economic reality, and the intended trickle-down impact is not likely having a net-net positive on the middle classes around the world or on jobs growth or on business fixed investment.

One could argue that the fantasy of global monetary easing's impact on the markets is reaching an extreme.

Or at least I have unsuccessfully argued it.

Certainly market participants have quickly forgotten the weak jobs report and a bevy of earnings disappointments.

• Run, don't wlak to watch Bill Gross and read Jeff Gundlach -- both of whom are bullish on bonds.

Both Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach are positive on the U.S. bond market.

Meanwhile, I'm left wondering if there's anyone left to throw in the towel.

• It's currently at 1.79%

The yield on the 10-year is now at 1.79%.

There is short-term resitance at 1.835%.

• I am not doing a thing but staring in disbelief.

The S&P 500 advanced has fed upon itself since I had my crown put in by Dr. Francis.

In fact S&P cash has doubled.

I am not doing a thing but staring (in disbelief).

Sectors such as financials, small-cap and transports and stocks such as Apple (AAPL), which I incorrectly covered yesterday, that looked like they were breaking down are now breaking out to the upside.

The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) advance is keeping me in the game today.

• The blitz of liquidity is currently taking markets to new highs.

I will be out for several hours as I have to go to the dentist.

It will likely be more fun than watching the blitz of liquidity that is currently taking markets to new highs.

• The March meeting minutes were an nonevent. 

The Fed minutes for the March FOMC meeting were a nonevent.

Economic growth is slightly better, fiscal policy is more restrictive, and inflation is quiescent.

Bottom line: QE willl continue throughout the year -- the Fed will continue to surpress the cost of money.

• Shares are down by over 5%.

Fastenal (FAST), mentioned in today's opener, is down by over 5% after missing revenue and daily average sales for the quarter.

• Both received positive attention from analysts this morning.

On two previously mentioned new buys Qlik Technologies (QLIK) and Fortinet (FTNT): Morgan Stanley likes upgraded product portfolio and sales force at Qlik this morning (price target of $30 a share), and Stifel is pushing Fortinet.

• The CEO sells $4 million of stock two years before the options expire. 

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) CEO Larry Blanford exercises options and sells $4 million worth of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters shares two years before the options expire, a red flag (as it follows other execs sales).

• I still think that shorting bonds with the 10-year yield under 1.7% is like shooting fish in a barrel.

On Friday, when bonds were ripping (and yields were collapsing), I said something I never do.

I said with certainty, when ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) fell to $59.45, that if I wasn't so large in short bond trade, shorting the bonds with the 10-year yield under 1.7%  was like shooting fish in a barrel.

I still feel the same way with TBT back to $62.

• The Japanese yen spiked after he said that he doesn't 'expect avalanche of Japanese capital outflows.'

Break in: Bank of Japan's Kuroda says that "Bank of Japan has done what's necessary and possible for now," as he "pledges all necessary steps for 2% inflation."

Kuroda alludes to possibly changing the CPI calculation that the central bank looks at, perhaps to resemble the U.S. core CPI calculation. The yen spiked vs. the U.S. dollar and Euro after he said that he doesn't "expect avalanche of Japanese capital outflows."

Perhaps the Bank of Japan was too aggressive last week in its communications and it wants to step back and see how everything plays out.

If so, the urgency of investors to glom onto the global easing theme might be reduced, and this could be market-impactful (negative for U.S. and EU stock markets).

We will see.

• Historically, it is among the first companies to see a slowdown.

We believe the weakness in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, particularly in the non-residential construction market, was amplified by the economic policy uncertainty in the United States....

However, with the benefit of hindsight, we believe the economic activity of our customers slowed from January to February and slowed further from February to March.

-- Fastenal's (FAST) first-quarter 2013 EPS release today

I have followed Fastenal's results/operations for over three decades, as I see it as an important domestic economic barometer. The company is a large national distributor of connecting devices and other products serving the residential and nonresidential industries -- it is on the front lines of U.S. business.

Historically, it is among the first companies to see a slowdown (and among the first to see a recovery).

The company's release this morning is an endorsement of my slowing U.S. growth expectation and consistent with my view that 2013 S&P 500 profits will be challenged and will easily miss relatively ambitious consensus expectations.

The demand/growth slowdown Fastenal saw in fourth quarter worsened last quarter, with daily sales growth rates for the industrial product distributor hitting their lowest level in at least two years last month.

For now, the massive global easing is trumping any of a number of economic, profit or geopolitical concerns.

• S&P futures are up 4;
• European markets are broadly higher;
• the euro is up;
• crude is unchanged;
• gold is down by $5; and
• the 10-year U.S. note yields 1.77%.