DAILY DIARY
Cooperman's Calls
- The investing icon selects his favorite stocks.
At last night's Portfolios With Purpose contest, Omega's Lee Cooperman selected these stocks: Crocs (CROX), Chimera Investment (CIM), Brazilian health care company Qualicorp, Monitise PLC (MONI.L) and Tetragon Financial.
Proud Papa Kass
- I am on cloud nine -- maybe cloud 10.
I have to cut out early to a long-standing dentist appointment right after the close.
I rarely share personal stuff with everyone, but I just learned that my son Noah (author of the "Ask Noah" column on TheStreet and Huffington Post and MSNBC contributor) has just been notified that he has been accepted to a selective doctorate program at the University of Pennsylvania.
I am on cloud nine -- maybe cloud 10.
Thanks for reading my diary today and enjoy your evening.
I will be celebrating big time.
Recommended Viewing
- Run, don't walk to watc h me debate Jim Paulsen on CNBC's 'Futures Now.'
I just appeared on CNBC's "Futures Now," where I debated Wells Capital's James Paulsen.
I recently wrote about the differences in our investment outlook.
Knowing Is Half the Battle
- On a risk/reward basis, at current prices, I would prefer being short bonds than long stocks.
So you know!
Proceed With Caution
- In all likelihood, the upcoming earnings season will determine how deep the current correction might be.
Europe's closing was weak, with most exchanges down a tad under 1%.
The standouts to the downside were European bank stocks, which generally closed at their lowest levels since mid-December.
European interbank lending markets closed a bit better, and financial credit default spreads were unchanged.
Italian and Spanish bond yields trended lower.
Over here attention will quickly move to tomorrow's payroll release, with expectations for a headline gain of 190,000 jobs. (Private sector results should be 5,000 to 10,000 higher.)
After yesterday's weak ADP release and today's jobless claims report, some economists have lowered their numbers to the 160,000-170,000 range.
Meanwhile, a series I watch closely, the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index is down to the lowest level since early March.
In the weeks ahead, earnings reports and second-quarter guidance should frame the markets.
I continue to approach the U.S. stock market with caution.
In all likelihood, the aforementioned EPS reports will determine how deep the current correction might be.
The Long and Short of It
- I am adding to both sides.
I have just added to longs in Apple (AAPL) at $426, Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) at $12.30, Fortinet (FTNT) at $22.20, Qlik (QLIK) at $24.50.
I have added to my shorts in Henry Schein (HSIC) at $91.48, Yahoo! (YHOO) at $23.63 and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at $155.86.
Ford Tough
- I reduced my buy level, owing to continued EU economic weakness.
I live at $12.50 on the buy side of Ford (F) -- a recently reduced level, owing to continued EU economic weakness.
The Gospel According to Fred Hickey
- Here are some highlights.
Below are some highlights from Fred Hickey's recent monthly commentary from his High Tech Strategist, "Playing With Matches Amidst a Mountain of Monetary TNT":
- Fred cites and agrees with Kyle Bass, who noted that the Japanese yen (and economy) is about to collapse.
- He writes that Jimmy Rogers says the market's record highs are "very artificial."
- Money printing has never worked historically nor is it working now.
- It is especially unhealthy when hedge fund speculators (Blackstone Group) borrow billions at Fed-suppressed interest rates to speculate on real estate, thus driving up prices.
- Stretching the QE money printing rate over the rest of the year (as is expected) could add another $800 billion or so the current $2.93 trillion monetary base and lending at that amount to 3.2x today's current level.
- Heading into this earnings season, tech stocks look vulnerable as does the overall stock market for at least a short-term decline.
- Currency is a problem, especially for companies with exposure to the Japanese yen, UK pound, and Latin Am currencies. 57% of IBM sales in Q4 were from overseas. Google has 57% of their sales from overseas, with nearly 10% from the UK alone. Their currency exposure is not totally hedged.
Spring Broke
- Seasonal adjustment issues likely caused volatility in the numbers.
The rationale behind my upping my short bond exposure is that there were likely seasonal adjustment issues associated with the Easter holiday and college spring break that caused volatility in the numbers released.
A Crude Observation
- Crude oil's selloff fuels my global slowdown thesis.
Crude's recent selloff (another $1.15 a barrel today) suggests global economic growth is slowing, per my opener yesterday morning.
Draghi's Remarks Lift Markets
- It sounds like he is thinking about easing lending constraints to smaller businesses.
Our markets have lifted from some earlier weakness based on Draghi's remarks in his press conference in which he suggested, "The commitment to the euro is vastly underestimated.... We are thinking 360 degrees nonstandard tools, and we are considering standard, nonstandard measures."
What could he mean?
Probably he is thinking about easing lending constraints to smaller businesses in order to get the lending mechanism working better.
Shorter on Bonds
- I have upped my short bond position to 15% in the face of today''s fixed income strength.
More Cowbell From Bank of Japan
- The Bank of Japan's announcement was more aggressive than market expectations.
I ended yesterday by writing that the central banks in the EU, England and Japan would frame the market action today.
Indeed, this has occurred over there with S&P futures up 6 points, benefiting from more cowbell from the Bank of Japan.
Risk markets are also encouraged by upbeat sovereign debt auctions in Spain and France. In Spain, 4.3 billion euros of bonds maturing in three to eight years were sold. The country's 10-year notes currently yield 4.8%, 3 basis points lower on the day and 30 basis points below the yield at the beginning of the Cyprus crisis. In France, its 2.0-billion-euro auction of two-year notes was done at a record low yield (1.94%).
The European markets have turned mixed to positive (after being lower earlier). The euro is down, crude is flat, and gold continues its schmeissing (down $8.50 per ounce).
The Bank of Japan's announcement was more aggressive than market expectations and included an extension of maturities of Japanese government bond purchases from three years to seven years and that Japanese government bonds up to 40 years will now be eligible for bond purchases. These moves will serve to double the monetary base in 24 months -- it doubles the Japanese government bond purchases, doubles ETF purchases and doubles J-REIT purchases.
Following the announcement, the markets are encouraged that more Abenomics will bring the inflation rate to 2% -- the Japanese stock market (which was down by over 1.5%) is now higher by over 1%. The yen is much lower with the USD/JPY having moved from 92.90 to 94.65.
Nevertheless, I continue to view the U.S. stock market as overpriced and due for a correction, reflecting internal market divergences and more evidence of slowing global growth.
On the latter score, EU economic data continues to worsen, with France's economy especially weak.
Following the BOJ decision, the BOE left rates unchanged. Coming up shortly is the ECB policy decision.
Economic Calendar
- Here it is.
Below is today's economic calendar.
Economic Calendar
Source: Bloomberg
View Chart »View in New Window »
From the Street of Dreams
- Here's what the analysts are up to this morning.
The analysts are busy:
- Brother Bank of America/Mother Merrill downgrades Microsoft (MSFT) to Neutral.
- Brinker International (EAT) is upgraded to Buy by Goldman Sachs.
- Lazard Capital initiates Apple (AAPL) with a Buy and $540 target. (I bought a rental yesterday.)
- PepsiCo (PEP) is downgraded to Outperform from Buy at CLSA.
- RBC downgrades Lululemon Athletica (LULU) to Neutral.