• Thanks for reading my Diary today.

Enjoy your evening.

• Fusion-io and Fortinet are in.

Fusion-io (FIO) reported earnings of $0.13 per share revenue of $120.6 million compared with expectations for $0.08 on $119.9 million, but guidance was poor (I have been out of this name for a while).

Fortinet (FTNT) reported EPS of $0.17 on $151.2 million -- a nice beat of about $7 million in sales and $0.02 per share on earnings. Good guidance. (Though I am out of Sourcefire (FIRE), this should turn it around to the upside tomorrow.)

• Here you go!

There are a lot of after-hours movers (both up and down) -- mostly based on earnings reports.

Most Up

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Most Down

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• How much to buy?

My mavens on the floor see about $900 million to buy on the close.

In terms of sector buying, financials have $205 million to buy, energy $195 million and consumer staples at $140 million. Selling is seen only in utilities ($15 million).

On individual securities, Exxon Mobil (XOM) again is the largest buy ($140 million); General Electric (GE, $40 million); MetLife (MET, $40 million) and Pfizer (PFE, $40 million).

PepsiCo (PEP) has $15 million to sell, Southern Company (SO, $10 million) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD, $10 million).

• Here's what I'm thinking.

A few observations:

• I would recheck my comments, made earlier in the day, on the lagging Russell 2000. I think it could be significant from a near-term perspective.
• Add transports to the Russell 2000's rollover today.
• If the market's drop continues over the balance of the day, I should have waited a day for my ludicrous forecast. (The closing momentum remains a function of the last program standing.)
• I am seriously considering getting long bonds for a trade -- see Citigroup Surprise column.
• The bulls I speak to are super confident. Perhaps too much so. Rising bullish sentiment was seen in this morning's Investors Intelligence survey. Bulls rose again to 54.3 from 53.2 -- that's the highest level since February 2011. The spread between bulls and bears is at the widest since June 2011. (The market proceeded to drop by 6% afterward.)
• The FOMC statement was more negative (to me) on growth than others suggest, as it did not change its language regarding the economy. This suggests a continued commitment to purchase long-dated securities. If the Fed was considering an earlier exit to quantitative easing -- it was notm it would have been more upbeat on a strengthening economy.

• Trading is next to impossible these days.

This afternoon we have learned from the Fed what we know already -- namely that the economy is growing in a subpar fashion.

Under normal circumstances, given the uncertain economic backdrop and the magnitude of the market rise,  I would expect profit-taking today. But, similar to most days, the market's last 90 minutes will not be dictated by natural price discovery -- rather, it will be dictated by the last program standing.

That is why trading is next to impossible these days.

• Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index has taken an abrupt southerly course over the last week. (Hat tip Cali Girl!)

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• Citi reiterates Yum! Brands.

Citigroup reiterates Yum! (YUM) buy based on evidence of improving comps in China.

• Italy implodes.

Trouble in the Italian stock market today.

• Not much.

My only new name on the short side this week has been Danaher (DHR).

No new long names.

• Run, don't walk, to read a recap of my recent appearances on CNBC's 'Futures Now.'

Here is a full recap of my recent "Futures Now" appearance on CNBC.

• Remember the Russell 2000 has led the broader rally since November.

After 30 minutes of trading breadth is mixed. As was the case, yesterday the Russell 2000 is particularly weak.

Source: Bill King, The King Report

Remember the Russell 2000 has led the broader rally since November. Now both the Nasdaq and Russell are diverging.

The following chart shows how extended the Russell 2000 is vis-à-vis its moving averages.

Source: Bill King, The King Report

Below is a picture of breadth at the 10 o'clock hour (EST):

• S&P 500 -- 270 advancers to 214 decliners
• NYSE -- 812 advancers to 971 decliners
• Nasdaq -- 816 advancers to 1,116 decliners
• Russell 2000 -- 607 advancers to 1218 decliners

Volume on the S&P is 8% lower than past 10-day average, 1% higher than past 30-day average and 5% lower than yesterday's volume for this time of day.

• We can go ahead and add the price of crude and slowing refis to the list.

As mentioned by The Divine Ms. M. over on Columnist Conversation, the price of crude oil and gasoline is now up for seven consecutive weeks. Gasoline prices are at a four-year high.

This is a growing and more formidable consumer headwind (along with higher payroll taxes and effective tax rates) -- the consumer will likely be the weakest link of the domestic economy in months ahead.

Meanwhile, the average 30-year mortgage rate (at 3.67%) has hit a four-and-a-half-month high. Refinancings are beginning to collapse already, as I suggested would occur in my recent housing post. In the latest week, refis dropped by 10.2% -- it will get much worse. (Remember refis are important part of an individual's liquidity.)

• Here is what the firm said on this subject this morning.

I have consistently been skeptical of corporate profit growth, seeing an earnings cliff ahead. 

Below is what Goldman Sachs said on this subject this morning: 

So far, 179 companies have reported 4Q results (50% of total cap). 39% of companies reporting have beaten earnings estimates (below the historical average of 41%) and 16% have missed estimates (vs. average of 13%). The average EPS surprise has been 5.6%, above the 4.6% historical average. Excluding Financials, there are more positive surprises (40%) and fewer negative surprises (15%).

Excluding Financials and Utilities, 40% of companies reporting have beaten sales estimates (above the historical average of 34%) and 17% have missed estimates (vs. average of 19%). The average revenue surprise has been 0.8%, below the 1.2% historical average.

• The world's growth metrics are inconsistent with the extent of the current market advance.

I continue to be in a minority and skeptical about the market's rapid rise in January, viewing the rate of global economic growth as the biggest risk.

I do not view the world's growth metrics to be consistent with the extent of the current market advance.

While it might be occurring in China, it is not happening in the U.S. or in Europe.

Among other reasons, over here, manufacturing activity has cooled off in January. (Nearly every regional PMI has disappointed relative to expectations.) Individuals' high confidence readings have also retreated, as higher costs relative to incomes and the fiscal drag weighs on the average U.S. consumer.

Monetary policy is losing its effectiveness, and fiscal policy has moved from expansive to restrictive. Also, valuations, while not demanding, are certainly not undemanding given the continued deleveraging and secular headwinds to growth.

At the same time investor sentiment has risen exponentially commensurate with advancing stock prices.

In Europe, while there is some economic stabilization and sovereign debt yields have been lowered, the region appears to be in for an extended period of subpar growth.

Yesterday's opening missive, "On the Contrary," presented, in part, the risks of a variant view. (That said, I had a variant view on Apple's (AAPL) shares back in late September and that proved to be rewarding.)

Perhaps a variant (and negative) market view is appropriate now, especially with the market cheerleaders and pom-poms so ubiquitous.

• Here's what the analysts are up to this morning.

Analysts' actions:

• Deutsche Bank raises Amazon's (AMZN) price target form $305 to $335.
• Jefferies lifts Amazon's price target to $330.
• Goldman Sachs downgrades Harley-Davidson (HOG) from Buy to Neutral.
• CLSA downgrades Ford (F) from Outperform to Underperform.

• Here it is.

Below is today's busy economic calendar.

• Up, up and away!

Below is a glimpse:

• S&P futures flat;
• crude up $0.40, flat;
• gold up 4;
• European markets up;
• euro up; and
• 10-year at 2.02%.

Up, up and away!