DAILY DIARY
Signing Off
- Thanks for reading, and enjoy your evening.
I am outta here like Brooke and Diana were on The Bachelor on Monday night.
Thanks for reading my Diary, and enjoy your evening.
A Time Warp on TV
- Why is the American Express earnings report 'breaking news'?
I seriously don't know where CNBC gets some of these talking heads.
The guy with Maria is analyzing American Express' (AXP) results -- just reported (previously scheduled).
Only problem is that the company already pre-released earnings two days ago when it announced the large jobs cut!
Jeez Louise!
How Much to Buy?
- About $475 million on the close.
My mavens on the floor see about $475 million to buy.
The largest sector buys include financials ($285 million) and industrials ($110 million).
The largest sector sales include consumer staples ($15 million)
In terms of individual stock buys: Citigroup (C, $120 million), General Electric (GE, $80 million) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, $70 million)
And individual stock sales are Exxon Mobil (XOM, $30 million), Chevron (CVX, $20 million) and PNC Financial (PNC, $15 million).
Recommended Viewing (Part Deux)
- Run, don't walk, to watch Robert Shiller talk about the housing market.
Check out Yale's Bob Shiller on housing on CNBC's "Futures Now" today.
Rise of the Machines
- The consistent, no-downtick character of today's rise is consistent with high-frequency trading.
The manner in which the market is rising today -- the consistent, no-downtick character -- is consistent with program/high-frequency buying.
No matter, as it becomes a self-fulfilling strategy, encouraging buyers and dissuading sellers.
10-Year Yield Threatens 1.90%
- The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is threatening 1.90% again.
Recommended Viewing
- Run, don't walk, to watch Byron Wien discuss his 10 surprises for 2013.
Here is a great video of my buddy/friend/pal Blackstone's Byron Wien discussing his 10 surprises for 2013 (registration required).
BofA Curbs Enthusiasm
- The stock just made a 13-day low.
Despite all the enthusiasm surrounding Bank of America (BAC), it just made a 13-day low.
QE in the Land of the Rising Sun
- In response to the news, the yen has made a new low.
Nikkei News is reporting that the Bank of Japan will announce new quantitative easing for the second meeting in a row next Monday/Tuesday.
This is the first time in nearly 10 years that this policy has been employed.
In all likelihood, we will see another $100 billion-plus in new asset purchases (the same amount announced at the prior meeting).
In response to the news, the yen has made a new low.
Nine Reasons to Be Skeptical
- The bulls are right for now, though, and I am wrong.
When the underlying fundamentals are arguably weak and stock prices are exhibiting consistent improvement, the arguments that stocks are cheap relative to interest rates and enjoying the benefit of the global monetary easing put comes to the fore.
As it just did on "Fast Money Halftime Report."
But let me respond in disagreement with nine points (summarized from Monday's opening missive):
- an aging market and economic advance;
- unsustainable fiscal policy;
- the earnings cliff is upon us;
- the interest rate cliff may lie ahead;
- a reallocation out of bonds into stocks is not a certainty;
- Washington does not instill confidence;
- the consumer is spent-up, not pent-up;
- policy alternatives are diminishing; and
- valuation is volatile.
That said, the bulls are right for now -- I am wrong.
Short Book
- Here's a look at my remaining individual equity shorts.
My remaining individual equity shorts include American Express (AXP), Bridgepoint Education (BPI), Goldman Sachs (GS), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Groupon (GRPN), Henry Schein (HSIC).
No Sellers at Midday
- My midday observation: Program buyers and no sellers for now.
Recommended Reading (Part Deux)
- Run, don't walk, to read the 'Chairman's Club Call Roundup.'
Great roundup of Steph and Jimmy's Chairman's Club call, on which I participated.
Goldman Plays Chinese Checkers
- The big broker is suspect of China's economic data.
Surprise No. 11: A comprehensive New York Times expose reveals that all Chinese economic data has been fabricated.
-- Doug Kass, "15 Surprises for 2013"
Here are Goldman Sachs' and Zero Hedge's surprising takes on the likelihood of this surprise being realized!
Goldman on Philly Fed
- Here's what Goldman Sachs had to say about the release.
From Goldman Sachs:
The weak Philly Fed report was consistent with the January Empire manufacturing survey and anecdotal reports from the Fed's January Beige Book, pointing to some weakness in manufacturing activity at the start of 2013.
More on Philly Fed
- It was a bit surprising that we saw no recovery from Hurricane Sandy.
The Philly Fed is notoriously volatile, so it's not surprising that it is being ignored today.
Following a weaker New York manufacturing survey two days ago, the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell from +4.6 to -5.8.
It was a bit surprising that we saw no recovery from Hurricane Sandy.
New orders were weak (-4.3 v. +4.9), backlogs flattish, big drop in shipments (to 0.4 from 14.7), the employment number fell by 5 points, to -5.2, and the average work week dropped by 8 points, to -8.3. Inflation moderated and prices paid dropped.
The outlook for the next six months improved a bit from 23.7 to 29.2 and is now back above the six-month average of 25.7.
I Am Avoiding Apple
- Still.
Interesting reversal to the downside in Apple's (AAPL) shares just now.
I would avoid the shares -- still.
Tearing Up These Tickets
- My Procter & Gamble, CSX, Avon calls and my Grand Canyon Education puts will expire worthless.
Calls that I will be tearing up on expiration tomorrow: Procter & Gamble (PG), CSX Corporation (CSX), Avon Products (AVP).
Puts I will be tearing up on expiration tomorrow: Grand Canyon Education (LOPE).
Nonplussed
- Very weak Philly Fed should confuse just about everyone!
Shorting the Financials
- First time, long time.
I am short Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) -- first time, long time (like six years!).
Let Me Explain
- Here's how I'm positioned on my bond trade.
Apparently a lot of subscribers don't understand my small short bond position.
Let me explain.
I am short ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) common, but against it, I am short more TBT puts. This creates a net delta equivalent long TBT position.
What I am doing is taking in premium on my TBT put shorts -- that's equivalent to a long TBT position -- against the TBT common short.
Capiche?
Giddyap!
- Looks like the Run for the Roses today based on the ramp in futures now.
Bond Prices Fall
- Yields rise and bond prices fall off better economic numbers.
Be Wary of Banks
- This is particularly true after the industry's nice run in 2012.
While I feel like I have been providing an account of the federal highway system from the standpoint of the automobile accidents over the last two weeks (emphasizing the negatives on the market), Citigroup (C) disappoints on several levels just now.
As I have mentioned this week, the outlook for the banking industry (tepid loan demand, a maturing credit quality story, pressured net interest margins, the banking industry's excess capacity and regulatory scrutiny) suggests, to me, that bank stocks should be avoided.
This is particularly true after the industry's nice run in 2012.
UnitedHealth's In-Line Results Could Disappoint
- Over the past four quarters, UnitedHealth has beaten expectations by 7% to 13% each quarter.
UnitedHealth's (UNH) fourth-quarter 2012 results are only in line.
As you can see from this table, UnitedHealth's actual earnings relative to consensus could disappoint investors today.
Over the past four quarters, UnitedHealth has beaten expectations by 7% to 13% each quarter.
Indeed, looking back over time it appears this is the weakest actual results relative to consensus in nearly five years.
Added to SPY Short
- I shorted more shares at $147.22 in premarket trading.
I added to my SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) short at $147.22 in premarket trading.
I am 33% net short.
Itchy Trigger Finger
- The yield on the 10-year is luring me back into the short bond trade.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. note is up 2 basis points this morning, to 1.85%.
As I mentioned recently, my trigger finger to expand my short bond position is growing itchy.
Economic Calendar
- Here it is.
Below is today's economic calendar with consensus expectations.
Lemmings Aboard!
- It's all about the price momentum.
Bank of America's (BAC) earnings, as expected, are full of noise.
But bottom line: It's a yawner.
I am not sure why so many are so infatuated (fundamentally) with this bank -- particularly after its doubling last year.
Maybe I just answered my own question!
Recommended Reading
- Run, don't walk, to read two Wharton professors explain why the world's economies are not yet out of the woods.
Here is Knowledge@Wharton's take on the prospects for the global economy this year, "For the Global Economy in 2013, Happy Days Are Not Quite Here Again," in which two Wharton professors explain why the world's economies are not yet out of the woods and why Europe's debt crisis is far from being over.
Overnight Action
- Futures up, Europe mixed.
- S&P futures up 0.75
- European Markets mixed
- Euro up
- crude flat
- gold flat; and
- 10-year yield 1.85%