• $440 million.

My mavens on the floor see a buy imbalance of $440 million to the buy side.

Consumer staples, financials and energy are the big beneficiaries.

The largest individual stock buy imbalances are PepsiCo (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), with about $60 million of buys each.

The largest individual stock sale imbalances are McGraw-Hill (MHP), Boeing (BA) and Humana (HUM) but only about $5 million of each.

• Goldman gets sloppy heading into earnings.

Sloppy action in Goldman Sachs (GS) leading into earnings.

But it might just be wishful thinking.

• How can anyone be so certain in such an uncertain world? 

On Maria's show on CNBC, one of her guests just said, "There is no doubt that the market will be at least 5% higher in six months."

As I wrote yesterday, how can anyone be so certain -- particularly in such an uncertain world?

• It's happening.

It ain't over till the most bearish turn bullish -- wait, he has!

1. Run, don't walk, to read Ed Ponsi's latest column.

Ed Ponsi "Scheme" gives his two bits on a very popular topic -- shorting the bond market.

• Almost time!

Ricky Bobby(Will Ferrell): I'm going fast again!

Cal Naughton, Jr.(John C. Reilly): How fast is he going?

Lucius Washington(Michael Clarke Duncan): 26 miles per hour.

--  Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

I have moved from about 26% net short to 35% net short today.

I am sticking with my baseline expectation that the S&P 500 will make a significant high in the first half of the month of January.

Ergo, it is almost time to shake and bake!

• Why am I adding to my shorts?

Juncker is saying the euro exchange rate is "dangerously high."

This could hurt our market and the European markets overnight.

I am considering shorting the DAX now, something I haven't done since 2007.

• The S&P and Russeell indices simultaneously turn negative now.

• I am not worn out yet.

I might be the last short standing, but I have slightly added to my net exposure this morning.

The persistent market strength has worn out most shorts.

I am not worn out yet.

• It seems I was kind of right.

I had planned to post this a few mintues ago, but Facebook (FB) made the announcement prematurely:

My best guess is that Facebook's big new thing could revolve around social search, as the company has hired more than 100 engineers in the area.

Here is the live feed of Facebook's meeting.

• Good for Google.

Google (GOOG) is moving higher off of Facebook's (FB) statement that it's not a search announcement but a product announcement.

• I am offering some more SPY on the short side slightly above the market.

Besides an addition to my iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) short at $87.70, I am offering some more SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on the short side slightly above the market.

• I added to this dark-side trade at $87.70.

I am shorting some more iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) at $87.70 now.

• I took some profits at $127.

I just sold some Altisource Asset Management (AAMC) at around $127.

As Grandma Koufax used to say, "Dougie, you never go broke in making some gelt (money)."

• Renewed takeover rumors send the stock higher.

Avon Products (AVP) is on a tear on renewed takeover rumors.

• The ETF is currently not tradable, as it is too dependent on the performance of Apple.

My view is that the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) is now not tradable, as it is too dependent on the performance of Apple's (AAPL) shares, and at these deflated levels, Apple's price performance is so uncertain and unpredictable.

So, going forward I am going to concentrate on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) in lieu of QQQ -- especially on the short side.

• Breadth is stale.

Below is the market's breadth at 12:15 p.m. EST:

• S&P 500 -- 246 advancers to 247 decliners
• NYSE -- 946 advancers to 872 decliners
• Nasdaq -- 972 advancers to 1,099 decliners
• Russell 2000 -- 930 advancers to 937 decliners

Volume on the S&P 500 is 9% lower than the past 10-day average, 5% lower than the past 30-day average and 10% higher than yesterday for this time of day.

• I had taken in a lot of premium, and it was a reasonably successful strategy.

I have decided to collapse my long PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) and short QQQ call position.

I had taken in a lot of premium, and it was a reasonably successful strategy.

In the end I benefited, from a big dip in the VIX as the calls that I was short lost value.

• Competitors have not fared as poorly as expected.

I thought it would be interesting to revisit Apple's (AAPL) components and competitors monitor I created last year.

Apple, Etc.

Source: Bloomberg

View Chart »View in New Window »

Check out the right-most column reflecting the change since the Sept. 12 announcement date of the iPhone 5.

Competitors have not fared as poorly as expected.

• Will it spoil the whole bunch?

The real issue to me regarding Apple (AAPL) is whether the company's product weakness portends broader weakness in consumer discretionary spending ahead.

• Yesterday's tranche has been taken in.

I took in my PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) short from yeseterday just now.

• Repeating for emphasis: The climate has changed.

To everything

Turn, turn, turn

There is a season

Turn, turn, turn

And a time to every purpose under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die

A time to plant, a time to reap

A time to kill, a time to heal

A time to laugh, a time to weep

-- Pete Seeger (adapted from The Holy Bible, Ecclesiastes 3:1-8) "Turn! Turn! Turn! (To Everything There Is a Season)" popularized by The Byrds

To everything there is a season.

I have gotten so many questions on Apple (AAPL) that I want to repeat yesterday's column in its entirety:

Surprise No. 8: Apple's share price and earnings continue to disappoint in the first half of 2013.

Last year, I wrote that Apple would be a positive surprise in 2012, though I turned negative on the company's fundamentals and share price in late September.

This year I have a negative surprise in store for Apple -- at least for the first half of the year.

The aforementioned Senator Levin subcommittee investigations on offshore tax havens (see surprise No. 1) highlight Apple's tax avoidance strategies. The share price drops below $500 a share in first quarter 2013, as investors begin to recognize that it is likely that Apple's future earnings will be taxed at a much higher rate than in the past.

Meanwhile, Apple's core operating profits disappoint due to a more competitive landscape, lessening demand for iPads and iPhones and emerging margin pressures. Apple's earnings estimates (and price targets) are cut, and full-year 2013 results fall short of $40 a share.

Microsoft's (MSFT) Surface sales start off poorly but gain traction by the end of 2013. Google (GOOG) Nexus, Amazon (AMZN) Kindle, Surface and Samsung all sell at lower price points throughout the year, as price competition emerges in the tablet market.

Apple's consensus 2014 profit estimates move toward an expected year-over-year decline. The stock spends most of 2013 below $550 a share, but, in the last half of the year, two revolutionary product additions lift the share price to over $600 by year-end. (Samsung's stock performance continues to outpace that of Apple in all of 2013.)

-- Doug Kass, "15 Surprises for 2013"

The big story overnight was that, according to The Wall Street Journal, Apple is cutting parts orders to reflect lower iPhone demand. In premarket trading, Apple's shares are trading down by over $22 a share. (I was actually writing an outline for a column later today that focused on the growing likelihood of an Apple earnings miss in the upcoming quarters.)

Since late-September 2012, I have been pointing out a much more challenging and competitive business landscape for Apple that would likely have an adverse impact on the company's sales and profits.

My views have been dismissed and have been pushed back in my circles -- from other money managers, in the blogosphere and by the analytical community.

We must remember that, especially in bull markets such as the one we have experienced since 2009, there is sometimes no clear demarcation between progress and fantasy. Speculation is a social effort, so extreme sentiment (as I discussed in Alan Abelson's Barron's column this weekend) and group behavior can artificially alter temporarily perception and create the illusion of prosperity.

But, as I point out in today's opening missive, a wolf sometimes emerges out of sheep's clothing.

Financial markets and individual stocks have their seasons.

Apple has had its season.

• I am putting a toe back in the short bond trade.

With the 10-year yield back down to 1.80% -- it was as high as 1.94% recently -- I am putting a toe back in the short bond trade.

• The market appears to be moving away from me, though.

"I'm tapped out, Marv. American Express has got a hit man lookin' for me."

-- Bud Fox (Charlie Sheen), Wall Street

I am offering more American Express (AXP) on the short side in premarket trading at $60.75, but the market appears to be moving away from me.

• The November disappointment was the third consecutive monthly drop.

Last night the November industrial production in the EU fell unexpectedly, declining by -0.3% vs. expectations of +0.1%.

This was the third consecutive monthly drop.

While sovereign debt yields are down dramatically -- and European bourses have cheered -- we have to understand that those yields are manipulated.

The recently reported industrial production print was not manipulated.

As I wrote in yesterday's opener, rising stock prices are often but sheep's clothing for the wolf.

Stay tuned as these are interesting times especially and arguably related to perception vs. reality.

• Bond yields support of my bearish view.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. note stands at 1.82%, down 11 basis points from its recent high.

Consensus is that domestic economic growth is expanding.

I feel the opposite and can look at bond yields as support of my view.

• JPMorgan downgrades American Express to Underweight from Neutral.

Maybe Milo will be right on this one: JPMorgan downgrades American Express (AXP) to Underweight from Neutral based on the "absence of near-term catalysts and the company's operating leverage challenges."

• Here it is.

Below is today's crowded economic calendar.

• I start the day at over 30% net short.

I got a late start today.

For the reasons discussed in my opening missive yesterday (and others), I remain at odds with the bullish consensus.

I start the day at over 30% net short.

Yesterday I added to my SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) shorts.