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DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

'Quiet' Time

  • One last thing. --Lt. Columbo

Sorry that I was so "quiet" today. Not only did I have a meeting with a management team, but I had minor complications from surgery (an infection -- I'm running a 102.5 temperature). I will be fine by Monday.

Position: None

What Did I Miss?

  • Looks like nothing.

I met with an interesting midcap today.

More to come.

And it appears I missed nothing.

Thanks for reading my diary and enjoy the weekend.

Position: None

In a Meeting

  • I should be out within the hour.

Sorry, folks. I got called into meeting. I should be out within the hour.

Position: None

Recommended Reading

  • Run, don't walk, to read Tom Graff's great analysis on the bond market.

Run, don't walk, to read Tom Graff's second installment on the bond market.

Great analysis.

Position: None

For Apple Heads

  • Rumors on new iPads/iPad minis.

Fifth-generation iPad and second-generation iPad mini rumored for March.

Position: None

Breadth Check

  • It stinks. 

At 11:45 a.m. EST, the breadth is stinking up the joint:

  • S&P 500 -- 148 advancers to 344 decliners
  • NYSE -- 634 advancers to 1,188 decliners
  • Nasdaq -- 884 advancers to 1,180 decliners
  • Russell 2000 -- 941 advancers to 900 decliners
Position: Short SPY, IWM and QQQ

Off Target

  • I have sold out of the name.

Housekeeping item: I have sold out my Target (TGT) long and options.

Position: None

Cortes Weighs In on RUT

  • He sees a potential breakdown in the Russell 2000 after a tear over the last few weeks.

Speaking of the Russell 2000, below is an interesting chart from my buddy/friend/pal "Fast Money's Steve "Hernán" Cortés "de Monroy y Pizarro"



Source: Bloomberg

He sees a potential breakdown in the Russell 2000 after a tear over the last few weeks.

Position: Short IWM

Russell Is Still Crowing

  • The Russell 2000 continues to underperfrom.

Another day, another Russell 2000 underperformance.

Position: Short IWM

Topping Out

  • DeMark sees a short-term top, and I still think that we could top out for the year.

Yesterday I pointed out on Twitter that ace technician Tom DeMark is calling for a short-term top in the market.

I am sticking to the notion that the S&P 500 makes its yearly high in the first two weeks of January.

Position: None

Par for the Course!

  • My stock of the year hits $100 a share.

Altisource Asset Management (AAMC), my stock of the year, hits $100 a share.

Position: Long AAMC

Quality Counts

  • Wells Fargo's effective tax rate was 27% vs. the consensus estimate of 34%, so all told, it was a mediocre to bad number.

A while back I formulated a trading strategy based on the quality of an earnings report.

Case in point: Wells Fargo's (WFC) effective tax rate was 27%; consensus stood at 34%.

All-around, a mediocre to bad number.

I would avoid this show-me stock.

I saw enough!

Position: None

Trade Deficit Increases

  • November's report will peel off about 0.5%, to fourth-quarter 2012 GDP.

The November U.S. trade deficit climbed from $42.1 billion to $48.7 billion. This report will peel off about 0.5%, to fourth-quarter 2012 GDP.

Such a reduction to fourth quarter has some meaning within the context of only +1.6% fourth-quarter 2012 real GDP.

Position: None

Wells Fargo Quick Take

  • EPS was basically in line, but net interest margins at 3.56% came up a bit short.

Break in: Wells Fargo (WFC) EPS was basically in line, but net interest margins at 3.56% came up a bit short.

I don't think the stock is tradable today, as there is no edge.

Position: None

Economic Calendar

  • Here it is.

Below is this morning's light economic calendar.

Position: None

From the Street of Dreams

  • Ford's price target was raised at Goldman.

Goldman Sachs raises price target for Ford (F) from $15 to $17.

Ford is a recent Kass Katch and is included in my "15 Surprises for 2013."

Position: Long F

Before We Begin

  • Overnight key developments and what to look for before Mr. Market opens.

The Japanese market continues to be a monster (up 1.4%), but China's Shanghai experienced the largest one-day drop (down 1.78%) since late September.

China's CPI print was hot (up 2.5% vs. consensus of 2.3%). Vale's (VALE) CEO was upbeat on Chinese economy.

After Wells Fargo (WFC) reports this morning, trading volume and price action could be muted over the balance of the day (after the numbers are observed).

Ignore headline earnings for Wells Fargo -- $0.89 a share is where the lemmings lie -- because it will include a lot of noise (OCC settlement, etc.).

Instead focus on net interest margins of 3.55% to 3.60% (estimated), net interest income of $10.7 billion (estimated), mortgage revenue flatting at $2.8 billion (estimated), provisions of $1.68 billion and net charge-offs of $1.9 billion, so reserve releases of $320 million.

Potential negatives could be a greater-than-expected charge for reps and warranties and a 34% tax rate.

Position: None

A Little Red

  • Overnight action saw a little bit of red.

Just a little bit of red overnight, with S&P futures down 1, European markets mixed, the euro down, crude down $0.60, gold down $8.00 and the 10-year at 1.89%.

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-30.77%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-11.58%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+14.23%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+17.80%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-19.25%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-11.42%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-23.42%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+32.77%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+66.93%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+79.01%