Skip to main content

DAILY DIARY

Doug Kass

BofA to Sell More Mortgage-Servicing Rights

  • This should take some pressure off Altisource Portfolio Solutions and Ocwen.

"One last thing."

-- Lt Columbo

Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS) and Ocwen (OCN) have been under pressure because a brokerage was concerned yesterday that Bank of America had not announced whether it would be selling more mortgage-servicing rights.

Bank of America just announced on Reuters that "it is in talks to sell mortgage-service rights on more than $300 billion of loans.

This should stabilize both stocks in the near term.

Position: Long OCN

Helluva Week

  • Thanks for reading my diary, and have a great weekend.

This was one helluva week for the market.

I am cutting out early to finish my surprise list.

Thanks for reading my diary, and have a great weekend.

Position: None

How Short?

  • I am now 15% net short.
Position: None

Sector Performance

  • Here is a pie chart.

Below is a good graphic on sector performance in the S&P 500 today.

S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

Source: Bloomberg

View Chart »View in New Window »

Position: Short SPY

Breadth Check

  • Here's a whiff.

Below is the breadth at 2:50 p.m. EST:

  • S&P 500 -- 371 advancers to 128 decliners
  • NYSE -- 1,371 advancers to 478 decliners
  • Nasdaq -- 1434 advancers to 750 decliners
  • Russell 2000 -- 1,376 advancers to 547 decliners

S&P 500 volume is 2% higher than past 10-day average, 1% lower than past 30-day average and 16% lower than yesterday for this time of day.

Position: Short SPY common; short QQQ common and calls

Calling On CSX

  • I purchased some calls in the name.

CSX Corporation (CSX) has been an awful laggard.

I have added CSX calls.

Position: Long CSX common and calls

Another Sneak Peek at a Surprise for 2013

  • Life on Mars.

Here is another one on my surprises on my surprise list for 2013. (It is one of two non-market/economic surprises, the other contains some sports and entertainment surprises.) The reason I point it out in advance is because this just came out:

Signs of life are found on Mars. The Curiosity rover conducts a chemical test in early 2013 that uncovers complex carbon-based compounds in Martian soil.

Position: None

OAK Grows Higher

  • Oaktree hits a new high.

New high for the mighty Oaktree (OAK)!

Position: Long OAK

Triskaidekaphobia

  • Beware of a VIX with a 13 handle -- end of message.
Position: None

Revisiting the Performance Chase

  • It's still nonsense.

My buddy/friend/pal Gary Kaminsky was just on CNBC expressing the notion that stocks can rise, if only because so many mutual fund managers are underperforming, according to stats published by JPMorgan's Thomas Lee.

I have previously written about how nonsensical the notion of a performance chase is -- let me add to my previous comments:

  • Mutual funds are virtually mandated to be fully invested, so explain to me how they put the foot to the accelerator further if they are underperforming?
  • Do they move towards higher beta, like Apple? If they do, or did, oy vey!
  • Do they go on leverage? No, they can't. It is not in their charter.
  • Poor stock selection is poor stock selection -- it can't be made up by buying more or chasing.

From my perch, chasing performance is a figment of Gary Kaminsky's and Thomas Lee's imaginations!

Position: None

Extended Insurance

  • The life insurance stocks are now extended.
Position: Long LNC, PRU and MET

Previewing a Surprise

  • This one is about Apple. Stayed tuned.

Surprise No. 10: Despite the advance in the U.S. stock market, high-beta stocks underperform. Though counterintuitive within the framework of a new bull-market leg, the market's lowfliers (low multiple, slower growth) become market highfliers, as their P/E ratios expand.

With the exception of Apple (AAPL), the highfliers -- Priceline (PCLN), Baidu (BIDU),Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and the like -- disappoint. Apple's share price rises above $550, however, based on continued above-consensus volume growth in the iPhone and iPad. Profit forecasts for 2012 rise to $45 a share (up 60%). In the second quarter, Apple pays a $20-a-share special cash dividend, introduces a regular $1.25-a-share quarterly dividend and splits its shares 10-1. Apple becomes the AT&T (T) of a previous investing generation, a stock now owned by this generation's widows and orphans.

-- Doug Kass, "15 Surprises for 2012"

Last year I wrote that Apple would be a positive surprise in 2012, though I turned negative on the company's fundamentals and share price in late September.

This year's surprise for Apple is distinctly negative -- that is, for the first six months of the year:

Apple's share price and earnings continue to disappoint in the first half of 2013. A consistently low share price for Apple persists in the first half as earnings estimates are steadily reduced owing to lower production rates. Two important product releases lead to an improving share price for Apple in the second half.

Apple's earnings disappoint under the pressure of a more competitive landscape, lessening demand for iPads and iPhones and emerging margin pressures -- estimates are cut and full-year 2013 results fall short of $40 a share.

Microsoft's (MSFT) Surface sales start off poorly but gain traction by the end of 2013. Google Nexus, Kindle, Surface and Samsung all sell at lower price points throughout the year, as price competition becomes rampant in the tablet market.

Apple's consensus 2014 profit estimates move toward an expected decline year over year. The stock spends most of 2013 below $550, but, in the last half of the year, two revolutionary product additions lift the share price to over $650 by year-end.

In the third quarter Apple announces three new products in 2013 (iTV, iMed and iHomes). iTV is a yawner, but the later two are revolutionary product additions.

With iMed, Apple enters the medical information market, providing a platform for the medical field to keep, store and transfer records real time. This expands the use of iPads exponentially.

Also introduced is the iHomes program, an iTunes-like software to control all electrical (and some non-electrical, like plumbing) elements in a home remotely. The software receives rave reviews from Mossberg, after which Apple announces it will not license the software for use on Android devices. (Google shares drop 60 points on the announcement.)

Position: None

Added to SPY Short

  • I shorted more shares at $146.

I added to my SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) short at $146 after the jobs report.

Position: Short SPY

Jobs Report

  • Growth was in line with consensus but below the more optimstic forecasts.

Jobs growth was 155,000, in line with consensus but below the trending and some of the more optimistic forecasts (e.g., Goldman Sachs was at 200,000).

Position: None

From the Street of Dreams

  • Avon upgraded to Buy at Bank of America.

Bank of America upgrades Avon Products (AVP) to Buy.

Position: Long AVP common and calls

Economic Calendar

  • Here it is.

Below is today's economic calendar.

Position: None

My Surprise List for 2013 Has a Negative Tone

  • The market starts the year at reasonable, if not high, valuations relative to headwinds.

On Monday morning I will reveal my 15 surprises for 2013.

As promised late yesterday, I'm previewing why this year's surprise list adopts a much more negative tone than last year's surprise list, which had an out-of-consensus positive tone to it.

Many of my dour surprises for 2013 are an outgrowth of an aging economic recovery (now four years old) and a maturing stock market (of a similar age) coupled with the recognition that running trillions of dollars in deficits while maintaining zero interest rates is an unsustainable policy strategy.

Importantly, the dependency of our economy, business and consumer confidence on Washington, D.C.'s, ability to compromise and deliver intelligent policy will prove, at the very least, unsettling to the markets in the year ahead. At the worst, it will undermine the economic expansion.

Policy alternatives are diminishing.

U.S. monetary policy is now effectively shooting blanks, and fiscal policy will now turn to be a drag on growth. Moreover, the likely reluctance and inertia by our leaders in addressing our budget will continue to turn off the individual investor class to stocks this year.

My ursine tone is also a reflection that, by most measures, the U.S. stock market is not meaningfully undervalued and that given the dynamic of the headwinds of slowing economic growth, a poor profit outlook and the developing weakness of policy are unlikely to be revalued upwards in 2013.

Position: None
Doug Kass - Watchlist (Longs)
ContributorSymbolInitial DateReturn
Doug KassVKTX4/2/24-26.73%
Doug KassOXY12/6/23-11.26%
Doug KassCVX12/6/23+14.24%
Doug KassXOM12/6/23+18.09%
Doug KassMSOS11/1/23-15.33%
Doug KassJOE9/19/23-10.23%
Doug KassOXY9/19/23-23.14%
Doug KassELAN3/22/23+40.53%
Doug KassVTV10/20/20+68.93%
Doug KassVBR10/20/20+80.53%