• Only bearish this time.

In my surprise list for 2012, I had an out-of-consensus positive tone, which proved to be materially correct.

By contrast, tomorrow morning I will preview why my surprise list for 2013 has a noticeably downbeat tone relative to general expectaitions of optimism.

It is nice to be back for good, and thanks for reading my diary.

Enjoy the evening.

• I pressed my shorts a bit on this little late-afternoon lift, even despite the jobs report tomorrow morning.

• I am now net short.

• Here is a whiff.

Below is a snapshot of breadth at 3:20 p.m. EST:

• S&P 500: 234 advancers to 258 decliners
• NYSE: 954 advancers to 897 decliners
• Nasdaq: 1,106 advancers to 1,099 decliners
• Russell 2000: 1,447 advancers to 1,443 decliners

Volume on S&P is 22% higher than past 10-day average 20% higher than past 30-day average and 7% lower than yesterday for this time of day.

• I am shorting some index ETFs.

I shorted SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at $145.80 and PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) at $66.90 in the form of a rental just now.

• A premature exit from quantitative easing is not a likely development.

The assumption of most observers has always been that QE will last through the end of this year, so the spike in bond yields is a bit surprising to me.

With the fiscal drag on the recently increased tax rates and with spending cuts (in theory) ahead over the next three months, a premature exit from quantitative easing is not a likely development.

As I mentioned earlier, someday yields will spike much higher, but that day is not likely in the first half of 2013.

Interestingly, one of my surprises for 2013 involves the Fed and its leadership, but I will save that until Monday morning!

• Only a few on FOMC want QE until about the end of 2013.

Break in: Several on FOMC backed QE halt or cut well before 2013's end, and only a few on FOMC want QE until about the end of 2013.

• Break in: Geithner said to plan departure before debt ceiling reckoning.

• Another one bites the dust.

I have sold the balance of my Yahoo! (YHOO) long today.

The risk/reward -- and it is always about upside/downside for me -- is now slightly negative.

• I have eliminated my Microsoft holding.

More housekeeping in my long book: I have eliminated my Microsoft (MSFT) long today.

• Risk/reward has turned less attractive after this week's 10% rise.

Housekeeping item: I have pared back my Dell (DELL) long as it touches $11.

Again, risk/reward has turned less attractive after this week's 10% rise.

• I am out of Target.

Housekeeping item: I am no longer in Target (TGT) common and calls, as I continue to weed out stocks from my long book.

• But my long-term bearish bond thesis remains intact, but I believe it will be delayed in the early part of 2013.

It is with great reluctance that I am reversing (at least for the next six months) my view on the bond market.

That said, my long-term thesis in shorting the bond market remains intact, but I believe it will be delayed in the early part of 2013.

So, as of now, I am no longer in my short bond position ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT).

I was going to comment on this in tomorrow's opening missive, but my friend/buddy/pal Gary Kaminsky is interviewing Double Line's Jeff Gunlach on CNBC now, and Jeff is commenting on the fixed-income market.

This changed view will be (much) discussed further in Monday's 15 surprises for 2013 column.

Suffice to write (as I will expand upon tomorrow morning), from my perch (and this is a contrarian view), U.S. economic growth is decelerating at a time in which the yield on the 10-year U.S. note has risen from 1.60% (a few weeks ago) to 1.87% today. (This view is similar to the view just expressed by Gundlach.)

• I am told but I cannot verify that Deutsche Bank has added Avon Products to its short-term buy list.

• In my view, inflation will not be an issue for a long time to come.

In our comments section, Grinch, one of our lynx-eyed subscribers, asks the following:

What is your view on inflation in the coming year? This is concerning to me. I'm wondering if you feel the same, and if so, if and how it affects your trading/investing plan for the coming year. [For instance], is there an inflation trade you would make or is exposure to equities enough?

There is a cabal of smart observers (Bill Gross at Pimco is the most visible example) who are worried about inflation because money supply is growing rapidly and the Fed's balance sheet is expanding at an unprecedented rate.

My view, however, is that it is the velocity of money that determines inflation and not the money supply growth.

At the current time, the velocity of money is at an historic low. It must recover for economic growth to accelerate. Then, in the fullness of time, there might be an inflationary knock-off effect. But looking at history, the timing of that baton exchange is measured in years.

So, in my view, inflation will not be an issue for a long time to come, Grinchy.

• I am out of my FXI long.

Over the past two months, the risk/reward on the Chinese market has moved from very favorable to neutral, as the concerns about a hard landing in China have been abandoned.

We bought the weakness, and we will sell the strength, as we do not share the view that this is the start of a new bull market leg for the region.

I am out of my iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI) long.

• Here are some observations from Bill King.

I have long quoted my buddy/pal/friend and Sandy Koufax admirer, Bill King (of always skeptical King Report) on these pages over the years.

Today Bill raises some interesting points and provides food for thought in comparing January 2013 with January 1973.

Bill observes that if history does repeat itself, 2013 will be a tough year for the U.S. stock market, as it was 40 years ago (in January):

Incumbent presidents try to rig the re-election year with fiscal and monetary stimulus in order to retain power. But in the first year of the new term, the bills come due and the juice runs out. This is why we have incessantly warned that 2013 could be an ugly year.

We also opined that 2013 could be like 1973 because Tricky Dick Nixon pulled out all stops and rigs in 1972 in order to get re-elected, including running profligate fiscal and monetary policies.

The Wall Street Journal's Ahead of the Tape column glommed onto the same theme in "Why 2013 May Be Another 1973 for Stocks":

[A] particularly worrying statistic is the market's return the year after an incumbent has been reelected: a negative 0.3% on average. In contrast, the market has returned 24.9% in the third year of a president's first term.....

But 1973 seems the better parallel. Back then, with tension brewing in the Middle East, stocks finally surpassed their all-time high hit six years earlier but peaked that January. They ultimately lost 14.7% that year and 26.5% the next.

History doesn't repeat but, as Twain acknowledged, it does rhyme.

Bill goes on to say that the DJIA peaked on Jan. 11, 1973 at 1051, a level not breached until Nov. 3, 1982.

Bill remarks:

After the opening buying flurry on fiscal cliff relief and the usual start of the year jigginess, stocks meandered listlessly on the first trading day of 2013 -- until the close. Then the expected manipulation of SPHs and stocks created a final spasm of buying.

Meanwhile, citing The Washington Post, this morning's King Report points out that BlackRock's chief cook and bottle washer, Larry Fink, is growing concerned about the stock market's near-term outlook:

• "I look at this as a very bad warning sign."
• He said he would buy bonds, while being more cautious on equities in the short-term.
• "Despite my pessimism in the short term about equities, I believe the only place to be is in equities, long term. I am just a little bit more cautious today."

• Here it is.

Below is the economic calendar for today along with actual ADP (with consensus expectations).

• Here is a look at what the analysts are up to this morning.

SunTrust (STI) was downgraded at Raymond James.

Morgan Stanley (MS) was downgraded to Reduce at SunTrust.

Citigroup (C) was upgraded to Buy at Sterne Agee.

J.C. Penney (JCP) was removed from the short-term buy list at Deutsche Bank.

Bernstein is upbeat on Apple (AAPL).

• It is time to get back to work.

I'm comin' up so you better get this party started

I'm comin' up so you better get this party started

Get this party started on a Saturday night

Everybody's waiting for me to arrive

Sendin' out the message to all of my friends

We'll be looking flashy in my Mercedes Benz

I got lot of style, check my gold diamond rings

I can go for miles if you know what I mean

I'm comin' up so you better get this party started

I'm comin' up so you better get this party started.

-- Pink, "Get This Party Started"

I have experienced six weeks of hell, healthwise.

It was not only about how uncomfortable I was but also the anxiety about the future that is the evil of cancer.

Now it is finally over, however, and it is time to get back to work.

Yesterday was another great example of how difficult (and even silly) short-term market forecasts are.

I frankly know few who were emboldened to get long in the dark days of last Thursday and Friday.

Though I did expand my long exposure late last week, I experienced premature disaccumulation toward the end of the day on Monday, as it was my view that a favorable outcome was in the process of being discounted.

Even though I almost perfectly forecast the timing and context of how the fiscal cliff would be resolved, I did not have the foresight to stay with many positions as I hedged out much of my long book.

I start the day in a market-neutral mode, and I have no plans to chase the market now.

Warren Buffett famously quipped, "Price is what you pay; value is what you get." And after a near-70-handle move in S&P futures since Friday's close I will take a pass on buying strength.

In looking at yesterday's rally and the uniformity of sector performance, it seemed to me that it likely reflected more of the fact that new money was coming in than a reaction to the deliberations in Washington, D.C.

That said, buying this sort of strength is for momentum-based buyers, and I don't travel in those circles.

As I will enumerate when I publish my 15 surprises for 2013 on Monday morning, the fiscal cliff resolution provided little certainty to the consumer and business for the time ahead. Indeed, one can argue that, although the tail risk of going off the cliff has been removed, there is much uncertainty created for the next two months and certainly a lot more heavy lifting.

I will expand on all of my current concerns for 2013 in Monday morning's piece, and I will preview some of the reasoning that led to the list's composition today and tomorrow. For instance, I am concerned that the multiplier being applied to the tax increases agreed to this week will be greater than many expect, serving to weigh on domestic economic growth. As well, it is also my view that the trajectory of economic growth in 2013 (and corporate profits) will also be adversely impacted by the manner in which businesses and consumers react to the tax hikes and the growing animosity and contentiousness in Washington, D.C. in the months ahead. Indeed, in the two months ahead, I fully expect the deliberations between the revenge-lusting Republicans in the House and the equally dogmatic and partisan incumbent President and Democratic Senate to have a direct and distinctly adverse impact on economic growth, confidence and profits.

Bottom line (and as I will discuss in my 15 surprises for 2013): I view the market's strength this week not as a new bull market leg but rather as something far different.

Regardless of view, these are uncertain times and the only thing certain to me is that 2013 follows 2012 and that there are 363 days left in the year.

Of that, I am very certain.