DAILY DIARY
Thanks For the Vine!
- It's been fun this week.
By Bob Lang
It was great swinging in the jungle with all of you for a couple of days -- thanks to Tim for the invite to join him and very speedy get well wishes for Doug.
It's been fun this week, but like my colleague Tim, I have also been battling a head cold. Brings out the best in us, I suppose.
The articles were fun to read and write.
Enjoy the weekend, and don't think or mention fiscal cliff -- whoops, I just did.
Just a Day to Not Like Stocks?
- Nimble and flexible is the way to be.
By Bob Lang
As we have seen, the carnage today it makes me wonder if there is another move coming. While the reason is clear for this pasting what is not so obvious is how the market will handle the coming days. Volatility is up but off the highs of the session, but all of the futures are up but not as much as the term structure flattens. That tends to be bearish for the markets. Volume today will be high, of course, with the expiration upon us and the many programs and puts being exercised today. In this news-driven market we're ill-advised to guess what will happen next, rather just be pulled along by what flavor comes up. Nimble and flexible is the way to be.
Happy Holidays
- And to all a good night.
By Tim Collins
I've spent the last few days battling a head cold and managing to get by all right, but today I definitely came out on the losing end. Of course, this is nothing when I think of what Doug is battling, and I hope whether you love him or fade him, you wish him well over the holidays.
As a programming note I will be out Monday through Thursday next week, but I will still have an ever mindful eye on the market. I've kept trading light and positions small into the end of the year, partly because I'll be out a few days and partly because I haven't loved this market.
I prefer technical trades and can chase down fundamental trades when need be, but count me out on the political trades. There are no charts to follow, ratios to measure and we're all sick of the stories being told. The end of the world isn't here yet, so there is nothing wrong with just watching the action from time to time.
Take smaller shots on a trade, but don't hesitate to cut the cord early. Or when building a position, don't feel you have to go all in now. Post-fiscal cliff, I do think the markets can go higher next year. How high? Well, you'll have to wait for the end of year, not the end of the world, to find out.
I want to wish all those at TheStreet, Real Money and Real Money Pro happy holidays. And to the other contributors along with the subscribers, I wish you all the very best. Many of you I consider friends, and some of you I consider family. So without further ado, I am going to do something rare for me and call it a day a bit early today. All the best folks.
Ross Stores May Not Be the Right Fit
- Its weekly chart shows a scary rounding top, and its fundamentals are nothing special.
Ross Stores (ROST) has struggled since early September, and its Nov. 15 earnings highlighted the push lower. The weekly chart is scary when you look at the longer term. There is a very large rounding top pointing toward a $40 target, should $50 fail to hold. The $52 area has formed a double bottom, so knife-catchers can buy here, putting a hard stop at $50 and an alert at $52.
ROST Weekly
StockCharts.com
View Chart »View in New Window »
The daily chart is flashing some bullish divergences, so a buy here looking for a push to $56 looks attractive, but I would only be on it for a trade. The stop on the daily is a hard stop at $52. There isn't the room in the daily time frame of trading as with the weekly time frame. Also, keep an eye on the RSI and stochastics if you are long. If they roll over, then it is probably your signal to get out.
ROST Daily
StockCharts.com
View Chart »View in New Window »
Fundamentally, Ross Stores is just kinda there. Most metrics sit in the middle of the apparel name, where Ross doesn't have any valuation outside of price to book that are worrisome, but it also doesn't support any valuations that make me say, "Wow, that's cheap." Overall, as part of a larger group of names in the apparel space, it makes a decent addition, but if I am only choosing one for the longer term, Ross isn't it for me.
Don't Trip Over Your Ego While Taking That Victory Lap
- It's difficult to bear those who come out after the fact and report the news as if they predicted it.
By Bob Lang
It's been interesting over the last 16 hours or so how we hear some of the rhetoric of those who called for a selloff today. Geniuses are those Monday-morning quarterbacks.
I'm seeing it all over the Twitter stream and other social media, but frankly it's useless and pointless.
For some, the ego is so big that calling a shot, even without money on the line, is good enough to pound their chest. I'm not a big advocate of bragging or chest thumping, even with money on the line. I'll let you know if I'm winning or losing in a trade. It's not hard to say, "I was wrong" -- happens daily to me and probably most of you.
It's difficult for me to hear is the ones who come out after the fact and report the news as if they predicted it. Save it! It doesn't help anyone at all. (Note: This rant is pointed toward others not on this comment stream!).
Adding value is not bringing attention to yourself.
SPY Game
- There is a head-and-shoulders pattern working along with the descending triangle.
By Tim Collins
Over 1428 or under 1425. That's a pretty tight range, but that is how the S&P 500 appears to be setting up here.
S&P 500
Source: StockCharts.com
View Chart »View in New Window »
A break under 1425 brings 1417 into play, which could be played intraday with a SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Dec. 21 or Dec. 28 $142.50 put or perhaps the $142 put, but I would prefer the first.
There is a head-and-shoulders pattern working along with the descending triangle. Let's see which triggers first rather than guessing.
Premium on Apple
- Condors are my choice.
By Bob Lang
With only three and a half days of open trading next week, I'll take advantage and sell some premium on Apple (AAPL) for next week's expiration. Condors are my choice.
I am short next week's $500/$495 put spread, short $530/$535 call spread for $2 (margin required).
Bobbing for Apple
- I flipped out of the call combo and into a put combo.
By TIm Collins
I am out of the long Apple (AAPL) call combo and flipped to same ratio using the $510-$500-$495 puts for $0.54. Only did half as many. Risking one-third of my profit from the previous trade.
RIMM Chart
- Here is the chart for yesterday's earnings trade.
By Tim Collins
I realized I left the Research In Motion (RIMM) chart off the earnings trade yesterday.
Research In Motion (RIMM)
Source: StockCharts.com
View Chart »View in New Window »
Below is the chart, which is still valid on levels and patterns.
Herbalife Update
- I bailed on this trade a little too early.
By Tim Collins
The Herbalife (HLF) Dec. 21 $35-Dec. 21 $32.50 long 1 by short 2 ratio put spread picked up yesterday has increased nicely, trading around a buck now.
I bailed on this one and a bit too early, but I would not be greedy here.
The stock is still very weak. Granted it needs to drop beneath $30.30 to become a loser, but I would just walk on it and call it a day. It was a lotto tix play after all. Greed can turn against you quickly.
Early-Morning Plays
- Apple and Facebook are good targets.
By Tim Collins
The only early-morning shots right now are long Apple (AAPL) Dec. 21 $515-$525-$530 long 1 by short 3 by long 2 call combination for $1.45 and some long 1 Facebook (FB) Dec. 21 $26.5 calls by short 3 Dec. 21 $27 calls for a net credit of $0.05.
I own Facebook LEAPs, so this is covered.
Boehner's Blunder
- It might be time to start speculating on who the new Speaker will be.
By Tim Collins
Boehner was hung out to dry in my view. No one in the GOP wanted to be on record with their Plan B vote. I'm not saying Boehner didn't help put himself in that position, but this looks like some political year-end preservation by anyone not named Boehner.
It will be time to start speculating on who the new Speaker will be. If I am looking for the next market catalyst, I believe that will be it.
Opportunity in This Early Drop
- Look at this as a chance to gain some ground today.
By Bob Lang
I'm going to use this unusual emotional response to take on some very short-term trades today. Staying focused, alert and aware of the conditions is vital to taking advantage of this. In fact, it appears the reactionary low was all the way down at 1391 on the futures, and that is some 50 handles below the close.
If you bought that (no, I didn't), you're up nearly 30 handles. That drop by the way was probably impossible to catch on the downside as it appears it was there for only a few moments, and it was all running stops.
Look at this as a chance to gain some ground today
Time for Prediction Review
- Two out of three (fingers crossed) ain't bad.
By Bob Lang
It's a good time to talk predictions, and I'll come out with mine for 2013 before the end of this year. But today is an important day for my 2012 predictions, and I'll put them down and review them here. Seems I might have hit two of three.. (We'll know that after today!)
Predictions are funny things. We strive to get it right and show that we have some ability to perfectly call the future. If we make a good call, this may set us apart from the rest. I've never taken predictions too seriously but rather with a grain of salt and a smirk. So with that, here are three bold predictions for 2012.
1. The U.S. will not enter a recession.
This may be a close one, but the resilient economy should manage to avoid falling into negative GDP in 2012. In today's global economy, we have many business cycles at work simultaneously. When one industry dips, another will pick up the pieces. We may not see everything fire on all cylinders again, but certainly there is enough of a chance to see growth. Where might it come from? Rails, cargo and transports are still pushing forward, commodities will do well with strong demand (even from Europe), and if leadership changes (see below), we could see the financials surge to the head of the pack.
I'll score this one a winner, while it looked bad this summer the recent 3% GDP for the 3rd quarter and positive economic data for the current quarter takes a recession for 2012 off the table.
2. We get leadership changes all around.
The economic challenges are far too much to overcome for President Barack Obama to win a second term. Much like George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980, this president is hamstrung by poor economic performance and high unemployment and saddled with an enormous debt. It's always about the domestic economy, no matter how many points are scored elsewhere. A change at the top may be a blessing to the banks and financials -- a new leader lifting the regulatory burdens that are strangling corporations.
Blame, however is shared all around. Congress and the Senate receive a rude awakening in November when many of the incumbents are replaced by their upstart competition. Voters have a long memory -- the August debt crisis and recent political wrangling over taxes are just enough to say that change is in the wind. The message of the voters is clear: Do your job or lose your job.
This one was totally wrong. I think many are still upset and frustrated over the slowness of the economy and tough job conditions. The voters spoke loudly last month and we have the same players in Washington that we had the day before the election.
3. Dec. 22, 2012, will be just another day.
According to the Mayan calendar, time runs out on Dec. 21, 2012. I will go out on a limb and say that we will wake up the following day with the world intact. I certainly hope this to be the case! I have two young children who have yet to face the challenges of life, and while the future burdens from my generation will be heavy to carry, it is the experience of the journey that is fulfilling.
I'll wait until the end of the day to pass judgment on this prediction, but considering I woke up this morning after driving home from San Diego and I'm still alive, following that awful performance by my SDSU Aztecs in the Poinsettia Bowl, the celebration of continued existence will be later on. To be honest, this was the toughest prediction for me to make in 2012, as I was given a Mayan calendar replica last holiday season.