DAILY DIARY
Signing Off
- Catch Doug Kass this evening on 'The Kudlow Report.'
I am outta here like Skylar Laine (or Elise Testone) will be on American Idol tonight.
Thanks for reading my Diary today.
If you get a chance, I will be on "The Kudlow Report" at 7 p.m. tonite.
Enjoy your evening.
Shifted Back to Neutral (Part Deux)
- I have sold out of my trading long rentals from this morning.
Housekeeping item: I have sold out of my trading long rentals from this morning.
I am market-neutral now.
Reshorting SPY
- I am reshorting some shares at $140.28.
I am reshorting the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) now at $140.28.
Out of Walter Energy
I have sold out of the position.
Housekeeping item: I am out of my Walter Energy (WLT) long now.
Shorting QQQ Again
- I am shorting some shares at $67.80.
I am back shorting PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) at $67.80.
Selling Out of Walter Energy
- I am doubtful that the company will be taken over.
With no real call option volume in Walter Energy (WLT), I am reluctantly selling out my position in the common and calls now.
While this might be the day that the company will be taken over, I am doubtful, as I the rumor has been going around all the way back since the shares traded over par.
Taking Some Profits on Walter Energy
- The stock has had a nice swing to the upside today.
Walter Energy (WLT) has had a nice swing to the upside today, in part due to takeover rumors (which I don't believe).
I would be inclined to take some off after its $2 rise from the day's lows.
That is precisely what I will do right now.
Kass vs. Siegel
- In case you missed it.
For those that weren't up at 6:00 a.m. EDT watching CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning, there was an interesting give-and-take between myself and Wharton's Dr. Jeremy Siegel.
Walter Energy in Takeover Talks?
- My gnome continues to hear takeover chatter, but I don't see any unusual call volume.
High above the Alps, my gnome continues to hear takeover chatter in Walter Energy (WLT).
I don't see any unusual call options volume, though.
Perhpas, as Grandma Koufax used to say, "Dougie, if wishes were horses, then beggars would ride!"
Crude Encouragement
- I added to my TBT long on today's schmeissing in crude.
A further drop in crude oil (coupled with the recent schmeissing in natural gas prices) will act as a tax cut.
With crude down by $2.60 a barrel, I am encouraged to add to my ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) long in today's weakness.
Another Positive
- The market heads higher without Apple's help.
A good sign: Mr. Market is improving without the help of Apple (AAPL) now.
Crude's Collapse Fuels Market Optimism
- Crude is now down by nearly $3 a barrel.
I get more optimistic about the short-term market outlook (viewed as a trading opportunity) as crude oil sinks.
Crude is now down by nearly $3 a barrel.
Adding to Ocwen
- I am picking up more shares of Ocwen.
I am adding to my Ocwen (OCN) long now.
Heads, You Win; Tails, You Win?
- If China's PMI is in line, China should rally; if it's weak, would could see more easing over there, and China will likely rally.
Jim "El Capitan" Cramer just mentioned that Caterpillar (CAT) and Cummins (CMI) have turned green, and he raised the possibility of a rate cut in China.
The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI) has fallen by nearly 13% from its recent highs. The ETF is down big this week and off by nearly 2% today (now trading at $36 a share).
Take a look at the FXI April weekly 35.5 calls at $0.86. (They are $0.50 in the money, so the premium is only $0.36.)
On Saturday, China reports its PMI.
If it's in line, I expect China to rally.
If it's weak, there are some who expect more easing, and China will likely rally.
If it's weak and no easing, you lose.
Risk is defined at what you pay for the calls.
Almost Fair
- The market is close to fairly priced.
To summarize my view, I think the market is close to fairly priced.
The perma-bulls and perma-bears are both wrong-footed, in my humble opinion.
Out of AXP Short
- I just covered the balance of my short positon American Express.
Housekeeping item: I have just covered the balance of my American Express (AXP) short at $57.40.
I will revisit, hopefully, at higher prices.
Tune In
- Watch Kudlow tonight.
I will be on "The Kudlow Report" tonight at 7:00 p.m. EDT on CNBC.
Slightly Net Long
- I am a bit more receptive to buy ideas now.
I have moved into a small net long position.
Though it is hard to be precise, I still am of the view that the fair market value of the S&P 500 is approximately 1335 (compared to 1395 now).
But, some of my concerns (e.g., the price of energy products) and the growing evidence of a deceleration in worldwide manufacturing activity (Europe, China and U.S.) have been increasingly incorporated in the consensus view. (Note: The yield on the 10-year U.S. note has fallen from 2.41% to 2.16% over the past two weeks.)
So, I am a bit more receptive to buy ideas now.
For long-only accounts, the Kass model portfolio is still only 40% invested, which reflects a still-unattractive risk/reward ratio.
Added to Yahoo!
- I feel that the downside is modest.
At $15.20, I may not make much money in Yahoo! (YHOO), but I feel strongly that the downside is modest.
I added materially to my long today.
Shifted Back to Neutral
- I am once again neutral on the markets.
I am back in a market-neutral positon now.
Covering Some QQQ Short
- I am taking in some of my American Express short as well.
I am covering some of my PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) short at $67.50 (initiated at $68 at yesterday's close), and I am taking in some of yesterday's American Express (AXP) short as well.
Crude Continues to Correct
- A tailwind.
Crude continues to breakdown in price -- a tailwind.
From the Street of Dreams (Part Deux)
- Walter Energy gets a positive nod from UBS.
UBS is positive on Walter Energy (WLT) this morning.
Tell Me Something I Don't Know
- Hong Kong's largest property developer was suspended on bribery/graft charges.
Here is another "Tell Me Something I Don't Know" post (derived from the popular segment of "The Chris Matthews Show."
So, Dougie, tell me something I don't know.
The largest property developer in Hong Kong, 2.5% of the Hang Seng Index, was suspended overnight as the co-chairmen and co-CEO as well as a Hong Kong city official were all arrested for bribery/graft.
As I have written, it is far safer (considering transparency and reporting methodology, among other factors) to buy American.
Levels
- It is time for another levels update.
Below is an updated list of buy levels on selected stocks that I have recently mentioned on Real Money Pro.
(Note: Of the 55 stocks, I would only rate only five, CSX Corporation (CSX), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), Walter Energy (WLT), Yahoo! (YHOO) and International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), as attractive to buy at current levels.)
In light of the market's recent steady advance, I am either very disciplined or plain stupid (and wrong)!
- Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS), under $55
- Apple (AAPL), under $550
- Bank of America (BAC), under $8.40
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), under $80.50
- Broadcom (BRCM), under $37
- Caterpillar (CAT), under $104
- Charming Shoppes (CHRS), under $5.00
- Citigroup (C), under $33
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL), under $90
- Clorox (CLX), under $65
- Cohen & Steers (CNS), under $30
- CSX Corporation, under $22*
- Dell (DELL), under $16.50
- eBay (EBAY), under $33
- E*Trade (ETFC), under $9.75
- Ford (F), under $12
- iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI), under $35.50
- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), under $35
- Fortinet (FTNT), under $25
- General Motors (GM), under $24
- Goldman Sachs (GS), under $115
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), under $22.50
- Home Depot (HD), under $42
- IBM (IBM), under $195
- International Flavors & Fragrances, under $58.50*
- JCPenney (JCP), under $34
- Kellogg (K), under $51
- KKR Financial (KFN), under $9.10
- Loews (L), under $35
- Legg Mason (LM), under $26
- Lincoln National (LNC), under $24
- Lowe's (LOW), under $27.50
- magicJack VocalTec (CALL), under $19
- MetLife (MET), under $36
- MGIC Investment (MTG), under $4.50
- Microsoft (MSFT), under $30
- Morgan Stanley (MS), under $19
- Och-Ziff (OZM), under $9
- Ocwen (OCN), under $15.60
- Parker Hannifin (PH), under $81
- Pitney Bowes (PBI), under $16.50
- PepsiCo (PEP), under $65
- Procter & Gamble (PG), under $65
- PNC Financial (PNC), under $58
- Prudential (PRU), under $59
- Research in Motion (RIMM), under $10
- Schwab (SCHW), under $13.50
- SunTrust (STI), under $22.50
- ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, under $20.50*
- T. Rowe Price (TROW), under $60
- Waddell & Reed (WDR), under $30
- Walter Energy, under $60*
- XL Group (XL), under $20
- Exxon Mobil (XOM), under $83
- Yahoo!, under $15.50*
*Eligible to buy at current levels
From the Street of Dreams
- AXP downgrade.
From the Street of Dreams, Wells Fargo downgrades Amercian Express (AXP) on valuation.
Whither China?
- Timely article on hard landing.
With China's harder-than-expected landing prominent in the news and in the markets (see the implosion in the cyclical sector) this week, Knowledge@Wharton has a timely column this morning.
China's Gravity-defying Economy: How Hard Will It Fall?