• Thank you for reading (and commenting on) my diary this week.

I am outta here, as I have an appointment with the cold, linoleum floor.

I sincerely thank you for reading my diary this week and for the questions/observations in the comments section (bad and good!).

Enjoy your weekend.

• Google, Wynn, Amazon, Priceline and Apple are all at their lows.

The recent chase for beta has been arrested today, with Google (GOOG), Wynn (WYNN), Amazon (AMZN), Priceline (PCLN) and Apple (AAPL) on their lows.

• A midsized hedge fund might have been squeezed in a Sears Holdings short.

So, Dougie, tell me something I don't know.

A midsized hedge fund might have been squeezed in a Sears Holdings (SHLD) short and forced to liquidate in the last 24 hours.

I recently wrote about rules on short selling, which (among other things) rejects any short in which short interest as a percentage of float or average trading volume is higher.

• Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) are at their daily lows.

• A credit event has occured with respect to Greece, according to a report.

Break in: As expected, ISDA says that a credit event has occured with respect to Greece.

• I am still long E*Trade.

Housekeeping item: Schwab (SCHW) has reached my price objective, so I sold my position today.

I am still long E*Trade (ETFC).

• Hedgeye's "Keithy" Keith McCullough: "The Story telling out there is fantastic - we are "rallying on Greece," but Greece is down four percent!"

• Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) CEO Meg Whitman, speaking at the Stanford Conference today: "I am worried about the European economy."

• Google (GOOG) is trading badly, acting like a Mexican jumping bean.

The shares just dropped from $608 to $602 in a heartbeat. For those counting (and I'm among them!), GOOG represents 5% of the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ); it's the third-largest component.

• Many jobs that were added this month were low-quality and/or largely a function of lower-wage temporary workers.

Two things struck me in the jobs report when I parsed through the data.

1. The average workweek was unchanged.  
2. More importantly, average hourly earnings rose by only 0.1% (month over month).

The second point seems to me to be a statement that those jobs that were added this month were low-quality and/or largely a function of lower-wage temporary workers.

Indeed, that is precisely the case.

Of the 227,000 net jobs added in February:

• 20% of the monthly increase was temporary jobs, which rose by 45,000 (up from 32,000 in January).
• 18% was food service/bars, which added another 41,000 jobs.
• Finally, education/health added 71,000, or another 31%, of February's total job gains (these are skilled workers but lower-paying).

So, temporary workers, waiters/waitresses/bartenders and teachers were responsible for almost 70% of the job growth last month.

Maybe I am negative data-mining (as I am net short!), but I simply don't see this sort of quality of job creation as a solid foundation for the domestic economy.

• My largest long is IFF, and my largest short is SPY.

Largest long: International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF).

Largest short: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).

• I also added to IFF and PepsiCo.

With JCPenney (JCP) having moved down from last week's high, I am bidding for some below $38 now.

I added further to International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) and PepsiCo (PEP) today.

• Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lower their GDP tracking estimates.

Morgan Stanley says first-quarter 2012 GDP tracking estimate comes down again from +1.3% to +1.0%. The firm gave multiple reasons for this, with the most important being the trade gap. Goldman chimes in on the same, offering an estimate of +1.8% vs. its previous estimate of +2.0% for similar reasons.

For now, the market is looking through slowing domestic economic growth.

• The leaders of the Nasdaq are falling behind.

If there is any negative to today's price action, it is the weakness in Apple (AAPL), Wynn (WYNN), Amazon (AMZN), Priceline (PCLN) and Netflix (NFLX), the Nasdaq highfliers.

But I am probably parsing and just negative data mining.

• Specifically, the month-end $137 puts at $1.85.

I am buying SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) month-end $137 puts at $1.85 now.

•  Run, don't walk, to read the latest 'Ask Noah' column on TheStreet and to watch 'Kass Couch' on 'The Dylan Ratigan Show.'

Run, don't walk, to read my son Noah's "Ask Noah" column on TheStreet: "At Ease With the Fabulously Wealthy."

And check out his appearance on MSNBC's "The Dylan Ratigan Show": "Kass Couch: A Therapist's Guide to Fueling Innovation."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

• The polls suggest that the outcomes of the U.S. and French 2012 presidential elections could be market-unfriendly.

In normal times, presidential elections are important to the economic and stock market outlook, but this is not a normal period in our financial history, as huge fiscal imbalances are the elephant in the room in most of the world's economies. So, political consequences loom even larger than normal in their influence on the markets.

In the U.S., our politicians have thus far failed to unite in addressing our growing fiscal imbalances. The relationship between the Republican and Democratic Parties has deteriorated in a divided and divisive setting in Washington, D.C. There is no chance of fiscal reform in 2012, and, dependent upon the election results, reform may not even be likely in 2013 or beyond. (Given the gravity of the imbalances and the need to address them (sooner than later), this would not be a market-friendly development.)

In Europe, a strong commitment to stemming the debt contagion is essential in providing a foundation for future economic growth. So far, policy has contained the problems, but the situation remains fragile and the heavy lifting of austerity lies ahead.

That said, based on the strength of the recent market rally, it can be argued that risk assets are paying little attention to politics in the U.S. and in Europe.

This is a mistake.

Investors should pay attention to the growing odds of Obama and Hollande victories in the U.S. and France, respectively, as recent trends, indications and polls suggest that these likely victors will not be risk-asset-friendly developments.

U.S.

Politics aside, most investors agree that a Republican presidency and control of the Congress is more market-, business- and economic-friendly than if President Obama regains the presidency in November 2012.

While it is generally expected that Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee (Intrade gives this eventuality an 85% chance), the extended Republican caucus and primary process has weighed on the odds of a Republican presidential win. (Intrade gives an Obama presidential victory a 61% chance.)

I suspect that once Romney wins his Party's nomination, the odds and polls will tighten up somewhat. Arguably, Romney has been forced by Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum to adopt a more conservative stance (that he probably believes in). This has served to turn off independents. Once he is the nominee, however, Romney will likely move toward a more centrist position and regain some of the independents lost over the past few months, which should tighten up the contest a bit.

Nevertheless, it remains my baseline expectation that President Obama will defeat Governor Romney, a negative for the markets. (We should closely watch the president's approval ratings. Obama now is at 48% in the Gallup Poll. The incumbent always wins when the presidential approval rating exceeds 50%. Below 47%, the incumbent always loses. So between 47% and 50% is the grey area.)

In terms of the House of Representatives, most pundits expect the Republican Party to maintain its majority. Currently, Republicans have a 25-seat majority and the consensus is that they will only lose about 10 seats. The Senate majority is currently six seats (53/47) in favor of the Democrats. The Republicans will likely win between three and five seats. If President Obama wins the election, since the vice president is a tiebreaker, the Republicans need would need four seats to gain a Senate majority. If Obama loses, the Republicans would need only three seats to regain majority.

France

On April 22, 2012, the French presidential election will be held.

The likely outcome of a Socialist victory is not a friendly influence on risk assets as the Party is generally against the German/French bailout of Greece and other joint-country initiatives. Moreover, a Socialist win would endanger attempts to fiscally integrate the eurozone. In turn, this could compromise market-friendly ECB fiscal policies.

Socialist Party leader Francois Hollande leads incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, the probability pundits are at a 66% chance that Hollande will win the presidency, while Sarkozy is only at 34%. According to Ladbrokes.com, Hollande's odds are at 3-7 and Sarkozy at 3-1.

Summary

The outcome of the presidential elections in the U.S. and France will weigh importantly on the outlook for the world's economies and stock markets.

At the current time, risk assets are ignoring the ramifications of likely Obama and Hollande presidential wins, respectively, in the U.S. and France.

This is a mistake, as the current polls suggest that the outcomes will be market-unfriendly.

For short-term traders, I can see taking some off a TBT long after the good jobs news.

While I view the short bond trade as a long-term play, for those that have a short-term orientation, I can see taking some ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) off now after the good news in the jobs market report.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. note has ranged between 1.90% and 2.09% for some time.

It has moved toward the upper end of the range, so I suspect we need some much stronger economic numbers to fuel a move out above the recent range.

• The good news has already been discounted in equities.

Nonfarm payrolls were in line, very close to the whisper of up 230,000.

My strategy, stated simply, is that the good news has already been discounted in equities, and I am adopting a sell-on-the-news tactical approach as I short more SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) at $137.40 now.

• While this is something of an apples-to-oranges comparison, Canada just announced it lost 2,800 jobs in February (jobless rate fell to 7.4%).

The forecast was for +15,000 net change of jobs and 7.6% for unemployment rate.

Could this be a precurosr to a disappointment in the U.S.? Stay tuned -- we'll find out shortly.